The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Ananda]

would argue the RU retreat from Kiev and Kharkov point out the superiority of the UKR soldier as a whole. The RU had more tanks, more planes, more artillery, and the advantage of picking the battlefield, but they failed miserably. Only during the later set-piece battles of Severodonetsk, are the RU playing more to their hand.

Kiev and Sumy retreat is more to do to Russian failures to break Ukraine defense in Kiev and Sumy Cities. They are doing well to move in to suburb area. Yes they have more Tanks and Artilery, but they don't have more infantry. Ukraine have more infantry, and doing more urban warfare need more infantry.

Thus Ukraine army is not routing them. The Donbas fight shown Ukraine soldiers have no superiority at all when Russian doing more concentrating effort on War of Attrition. Will Russian can keep that momentum on larger front, is still time to see.

All this shown Russian bad planning, misserable executions on doing large wide spread offensive. However shown they are doing better on more concentrating offensive on smaller scale fronts. They are pushing back Ukraine counter offensive in Kharkiv and begin to reclaim back some Kharkiv suburb. Ukraine counter offensive in Nikolayev fronts basically only getting some gain in some front but losing some to Russian on other front in Nikolayev-Kherson fronts.

So, I don't dispute Russian problem due to inept planning and corruption. What I'm dispute is the analysts that taking as if Ukraine have not facing similar inept and corruption problem. Those in West that looking past more current Western politicians and mainstream media take on 'glorious' Ukraine, found basically this war fought by two similar inept and corrupt military. (The article that I put from Financial Times basically some in Western Market that remind corruption is still rampant in Ukraine Military).

Thus this grinding and attrition wars fought by both equals corrupts militaries will down to whose going to run out logistics firsts. I don't see any Ukraine superiority as better military so far. Both are basically same mentality armies.

 

[hauritz]

Ukraine will probably continue to receive support from the west but I have a feeling that support will be conditional. The backers of Ukraine are pouring billions of dollars into this effort and they will want to see results.

I can’t see the west being happy if they started seeing their most advanced weapons being abandoned on the battlefield, lost though incompetence or otherwise squandered.

 

[seaspear]

The U.S will not be able to provide indefinite amounts of military supplies having to be mindful of other areas of potential conflict That Russia had sufficient ammunition for several months of high intensity use must have been sobering for N.A.T.O countries with more modest stocks

 

[vonnoobie]

The U.S will not be able to provide indefinite amounts of military supplies having to be mindful of other areas of potential conflict That Russia had sufficient ammunition for several months of high intensity use must have been sobering for N.A.T.O countries with more modest stocks

Question on the other side of the coin is how old is that ammunition. NATO may not have deep stocks but what they do have is relatively new, well maintained and useful. Russian assets on the other hand while having a large amount have seen a few photos of Russian artillery strikes and half the hits are duds. Utilising decades old shells, decades old cruise missiles etc not all of which has been maintained or anywhere near accurate enough doesn't exactly show Russia being able to keep this tempo up for the long haul either. Rather it shows they have scrounged up every bit of munitions the could find that should have been disposed of long ago and throwing it at Ukraine hoping it will stick. Once the old semi useful munitions are gone they will be totally reliant on what they can produce domestically and seeing they are relying on old munitions this current tempo will plummet.

 

[STURM]

I would argue the RU retreat from Kiev and Kharkov point out the superiority of the UKR soldier as a whole. The RU had more tanks, more planes, more artillery, and the advantage of picking the battlefield, but they failed miserably.

Because of various reasons that are well known the Russians failed. This however doesn't "point out the superiority of the UKR soldier as a whole"'. The Ukrainians did very well and there are reasons for that; what it certainly doesn't show IMO is that on an individual basis the Ukrainian solider is definitely superior; depends on the context; the unit; operational circumstances; etc.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian troops firing SPG-9s and Kornets at Ukrainian positions, Nikolaev region, near Snegirevka. Note Russian forces previously retired SPG-9s almost entirely, so these may be in rebel hands or irregulars. However I think these are Russian SOF. They get to pick their own equipment in many cases, and used SPG-9s in Syria.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian missile launches, Crimea.

Таврическая Республика

#эксклюзив ‼️‼️‼️Пуск крылатой ракеты оникс по военным объектам на Николаевском направлении⚡️ @Tauride_Republic

t.me

Russian strikes in Nikolaev region.

Военный Осведомитель

Удары по целям в Николаеве.

t.me

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vk.com

One of the targets was the base of the 79th Airmobile Bde in Nikolaev.

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vk.com

Russian BK-16 gunboat on the Dnepr, presumably near Kherson region. They claim to have a Ukrainian POW as part of this raid.

ANNA NEWS

Российские спецназовцы на борту катера БК-16 сплавляются по Днепру Результат рейда — один пленный попутчик из украинской армии. Видео: @ok_spn и @negumanitarnaya_pomosch_z @anna_news

t.me

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vk.com

Ukrainian tug, the MB-30 Koreets has been taken to Sevastopol' from Berdyansk where it was left by Ukrainian forces.

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vk.com

Russian security forces continue house raids in Kherson region.

Денацификация UA

⚡️В освобождённом Херсоне сотрудники ФСБ задержали двух уроженцев города — Андрея Сереженько и Олега Пронько. По указанию Главного управления разведки Минобороны они совершили террористический акт с целью убийства Евгения Соболева — регионального главы Управления службы исполнения наказаний...

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Strange footage from Dnepropetrovsk. These missiles look like they were launched nearby.

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

Эпичные кадры из Днепра

t.me

Apparently despite earlier announcements of intentions to the contrary, Russia is still supplying electricity from the Zaporozhskaya NPP to Ukraine. International considerations are cited.

Запорожские власти объяснили, почему поставляют Киеву энергию с АЭС

Запорожская АЭС вынуждена поставлять электроэнергию киевскому режиму, так как находится под контролем Международного агентства по атомной энергии (МАГАТЭ),... РИА Новости, 05.07.2022

ria.ru

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes near Kharkov.

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

❗По Харькову пошел удар.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️По оборонной инфраструктуре Харькова наносятся удары В городе ревёт воздушная тревога, слышны мощные взрывы от прилётов. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

B результате попаданий по оборонным объектам в одном из районов Харькова возник сильный пожар.

t.me

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vk.com

Russian strikes in Sumy region.

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

❗Прилет в Сумской области

t.me

Russian Buk-M1-2s near Kharkov.

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vk.com

Russian supply columns, Kharkov region.

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LDNR Front.

Shellings of Donetsk continue.

Репортёр Руденко V

Вечерний Донецк затянут дымом от пожаров из за обстрелов.Удары до сих пор не прекратились по городу.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Кадры жутких последствий обстрелов одного из жилых домов в Донецке со стороны боевиков ВСУ сегодня t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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Stakhanov, LNR area, hit by a Ukrainian strike.

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Russia or rebel infantry near Novoselovka, by Kramatorsk. They've found an abandoned, possibly knocked out, AT-105.

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vk.com

More captured Ukrainian munitions, Lisichansk.

Военкор l Z l Лисицын ZOV-TV

Новые трофеи 6-го Казачьего Полка в г. Лисичанск Если хотите помочь нашему проекту, то вот реквизиты карты Сбербанка: 5336690394013835 Военкор l Z l Лисицын

t.me

Ukraine has apparently planted a number of PFM-1 mines in Lisichansk before withdrawing.

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vk.com

Russian 2S5s near Severodonetsk.

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vk.com

Russian S-300s, Lugansk region. They could presumably by S-400s, you can't really tell from this footage.

Центр Рубеж

Луганская Народная Республика. Российские ЗРС С-300 на марше.

t.me

Battle damage in Klinovoe, a village near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Позывной Брюс

Вчера съездил в Клиновое. Населенный пункт был освобожден накануне и находится всего в восьми километрах от Бахмута. Скоро будет готов репортаж.

t.me

Russian road construction in Lugansk region.

Kotsnews

На освобожденной Луганщине полным ходом идет восстановление. Понятно, что процесс этот небыстрый, и не до каждого пока дошел, но обязательно дойдет. Российские специалисты восстанавливают дороги в ЛНР. @sashakots

t.me

Russian volunteers have set up kitchens in Mariupol' to feed the locals still remaining. I think this is more reflective of the situation on the ground then Russia's reconstruction problems.

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vk.com

The West.

Russian strikes in Khmel'nitskaya region.

Повёрнутые на войне

Прилет по Ярмолинецкому району в Хмельницкой области

t.me

Ukrainian An-12 made a bad landing near Uzhgorod, while allegedly carrying foreign military aid.

Dambiev

Минус один украинский транспортник на долгосрочный ремонт. Сообщают, что 2 июля 2022 года в аэропорту Ужгорода совершил жесткую посадку и выкатился за пределы взлетно- посадочной полосы транспортный самолет Ан-12ВК авиакомпании "Мотор Сич" (регистрационный номер UR-11316), выполнявший рейс по...

t.me

Russia.

Sevsk village, Bryansk region, Russia, got hit.

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Tetkino and Markino villages, Kursk region, got hit.

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vk.com

Russian missile launches, Belgorod region.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Кадры пусков "Искандеров" из Белгорода по целям ВСУ в Харькове Всего было выпущено порядка 5 ракет. Спасибо нашему читателю за видео. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Barges with reflectors to distract radar-guided missiles have been parked near the Crimean bridge.

Военный Осведомитель

Противоракетную оборону Крымского моста усилили баржами с уголковыми отражателями. Пирамидальные отражатели установлены в районе острова Тузла на расстоянии 50-100 метров параллельно автомобильной части Крымского моста. Подобные конструкции применяются для обмана радиолокационных головок...

t.me

Misc.

Russian Smerch and Iskander strikes, location and context unclear.

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Allegedly a Czech supplied BMP-1/Pbv-501 destroyed, from the 68th Yeger' Bde, location unclear.

ANNA NEWS

На Украине уничтожена чешская БМП Pbv-501 На Украине была уничтожена БМП Pbv-501, поставленная армии киевского режима чешской компанией Excalibur Army. Машина состояла на вооружении вновь сформированной 68-й егерской бригады. Примечательно, что украинские военные в очередной раз выдавали свою...

t.me

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vk.com

Destroyed pickup truck, allegedly belonging to Ukrainian forces.

ANNA NEWS

Уничтоженный из засады пикап ДРГ ВСУ.

t.me

Russian truck hauling away a destroyed Bayraktar, location and context unclear.

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vk.com

Ukrainian forces operating HIMARS, location and context unclear.

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Ukrainian territorial defense using a Vasilek automatic mortar off the back of a civilian truck. I believe this is training footage.

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Ukrainian (Soviet) UAZ van turned into a technical with a decent looking turret. Presumably territorial defense forces.

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Ukrainian T-72M1s, Polish and Czech, in training.

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Russian T-90M, Ukraine. Location and context unclear, but I suspect it's the Izyum Salient. It's the only place we saw this.

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NATO/EU.

The Lithuanian donation-funded Bayraktar is heading to Ukraine.

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China army

ВВС Литвы доставили из Турции 1 БпЛА Байрактар ТB2 на борту самолёта С-27J с целью дальнейшей передачи его Киеву.

t.me

 

[vikingatespam]

The U.S will not be able to provide indefinite amounts of military supplies having to be mindful of other areas of potential conflict That Russia had sufficient ammunition for several months of high intensity use must have been sobering for N.A.T.O countries with more modest stocks

How much 155mm ammo does NATO have is a great question, and again one I dont have a good handle on. However, the rate of ammo usage would likely be much less than Warsaw pact equipment and doctrine.

I would hope the US has large stocks of well maintained ammo lots. I suspect that we dont really have large amounts suitable for sustained conflicts given budget wrangling and a lack of foresight.

 

[vonnoobie]

Been trying to find production capabilities from various nations both in NATO, West and Russia but thus far the only thing I have found is a US report from 1994-95.

Industrial Base: Inventory and Requirements for Artillery Projectiles

Back then the stockpile for 105, 155 and 8inch was just of 20 million rounds with a monthly production capacity of 867,000 rounds with 3 x 8 hour shifts 5 days a week.

Current production is likely down as that then was based on 5 facilities of which far as I can tell only 3 remain active with 1 closed and 1 being divested. Also unknown if any capability has been reduced due to missile production from some of those same facilities or if it has been increased due to improvements into manufacturing.

My feeling is long term this war is going to come down to which side can produce the most munitions per a period of time then the other. If the various NATO nations are serious about supporting Ukraine then rather then giving X amount from there stocks they should be ordering X amount on a monthly basis from their respective production capabilities to be forwarded onto Ukraine. Ukrainian command relying on getting odd amounts of munitions at various times will likely be limiting what they can afford to do not knowing if what they have been given 1 week can be used for that week or if they need to conserve it for that week and the following several weeks. They need a steady stream that will give them a full understanding of what they can do when and to what extent.

 

[STURM]

I think that's a question we can also be asking about the Russians. How much arty ammo stocks did they; how long can they manage their stocks at the current rate of usage and are factories producing more stocks?

Putin’s Big Turning Point in the War Could Finally Be Here

A shift in strategy that’s already given Vladimir Putin’s army a key win could spell the beginning of a brand new chapter in the war in Ukraine.

www.thedailybeast.com

''Russia’s success in Luhansk wasn’t an accident. While Russian forces have been bogged down by previous missteps in the war for months, Russian forces are getting better at executing their war plans and operating across teams. Putin has likely achieved effective coordination between two major fighting groups in the Donbas, according to the intelligence assessment. Unlike in previous phases of the war, Russia has probably achieved reasonably effective coordination between at least two Groupings of Forces, the Central Grouping likely commanded by General-Colonel Alexandr Lapin and the Southern Grouping probably under the recently appointed General Sergei Surovikin,” the assessment states.''

The Russians meanwhile seem to have sorted out some of their previous shortcomings but whether it ultimately proves decisive still remains to be seen; still early days. What also remains to be seen is whether Western arms deliveries and other forms of support to the Ukraine will enable it to keep the Russians at bay. It's just personal opinion but as things stand we might might eventually reach both sides have fought themselves to a stalemate; neither able to inflict a decisive defeat on one another.

 

[Todjaeger]

How much 155mm ammo does NATO have is a great question, and again one I dont have a good handle on. However, the rate of ammo usage would likely be much less than Warsaw pact equipment and doctrine.

I would hope the US has large stocks of well maintained ammo lots. I suspect that we dont really have large amounts suitable for sustained conflicts given budget wrangling and a lack of foresight.

The question should more likely be asked about non-US NATO munitions stocks and then US munitions war stocks as the US has historically kept much larger war stocks than allies. This actually came up during the air campaign over Libya in 2011 after passage of UNSC Resolution 1973. IIRC France conducted the single largest number of sorties (~15%) of NATO members participating, more than even the US. One thing which the US did have to do in order to support the NATO ops was provide a PGM resupply, when NATO allies started exhausting their munitions war stocks during the Libyan operations. In many respects this is not too surprising for me, since a role in NATO that the US held for decades was as a provider of logistical and transport support.

 

[tabu]

Death of Russian soldiers for yachts and real estate of oligarchs

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545074010299547650

For those who didn't believe in the burning roof in Avdiivka.

 

[Feanor]

For those who didn't believe in the burning roof in Avdiivka.

Out of curiousity, what's the context? Rebel/Russian shelling of Avdeevka?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Back then the stockpile for 105, 155 and 8inch was just of 20 million rounds with a monthly production capacity of 867,000 rounds with 3 x 8 hour shifts 5 days a week.

Current production is likely down as that then was based on 5 facilities of which far as I can tell only 3 remain active with 1 closed and 1 being divested. Also unknown if any capability has been reduced due to missile production from some of those same facilities or if it has been increased due to improvements into manufacturing.

Seems like a healthy situation for peace-time. Artillery ammo (separate from guidance kits) is low-tech, and thus countries can easily flex up and down when there is need.

Perhaps it's time to keep wartime ammo production a standard for peacetime, and invest in recycling capability so the high production volume does not translate to high costs (from raw materials).

 

[tabu]

Out of curiousity, what's the context? Rebel/Russian shelling of Avdeevka?

Avdiivka is on the front line and has been shelled by separatists for years. It's just that now there is a lot of Russian shelling and rocket fire. And the Russians always explain the shelling of residential areas as explosions and fires caused by locals.

 

[Feanor]

Avdiivka is on the front line and has been shelled by separatists for years. It's just that now there is a lot of Russian shelling and rocket fire. And the Russians always explain the shelling of residential areas as explosions and fires caused by locals.

That's odd, I have never come across that explanation, and it's completely implausible. We have tons of footage of rebel and Russian artillery shelling Avdeevka, and the town is a Ukrainian strong point, so this kind of shelling is to be expected. This is hardly a secret. The default assumption of battle damage in Avdeevka would be rebel shelling.

 

[tabu]

That's odd, I have never come across that explanation, and it's completely implausible. We have tons of footage of rebel and Russian artillery shelling Avdeevka, and the town is a Ukrainian strong point, so this kind of shelling is to be expected. This is hardly a secret. The default assumption of battle damage in Avdeevka would be rebel shelling.

The Russians deny in principle the shelling of civilian objects. Don't you know, for example, the Russian explanation when a Russian missile hit a shopping mall in Kramatorsk? The Russians denied the hit and explained it as a fire that spilled over to the mall, although there were videos that showed that it was a Russian missile that was responsible for the civilian deaths.

 

[tabu]

Putin has made several statements:
Russia is not giving up on peace talks, but the further we go, the harder it will be to negotiate with us.
Russia has not even started a war in Ukraine yet.
It's all coming to the point where the West is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian.
They want to defeat us on the battlefield, well, what can I say, let them try.

This already sounds like hysteria. When Macron said in February - let's negotiate, the answer was - not yet the time...

Ukraine latest updates: Putin says war not started in ‘earnest’

Ukraine news from July 7: Russian President says prospects for peace will diminish the longer the war drags on.

www.google.com

Реальна Війна | Україна | Новини

Путин заявил, что "Россия еще ничего не начинала всерьез в Украине" "Сегодня мы слышим, что нас хотят победить на поле боя, ну, что тут сказать, пусть попробуют. Мы всерьёз-то ещё ничего не начинали" Реальная Война

t.me

Putin's revelation that "Russia has not yet started anything in earnest in Ukraine" with virtually all the combat-ready units of the Ground Forces deployed and serious casualties (at a rate higher than in Afghanistan) in manpower and equipment is a pig-headed revelation, full of disrespect for the loss of personnel and equipment.

Putin is trying to threaten that there are even tougher measures. Trying to scare him, saying that everything was not a serious fight yet. Really? And why since the beginning of March the losses have not been published, if it is not serious? And the relatives of the dead, the wounded, the crippled are probably happy to hear now that it was not serious?!!

 

[tabu]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545114717236125696

his right arm flew off during the trials of this Wunderwaffe?

 

[Feanor]

The Russians deny in principle the shelling of civilian objects. Don't you know, for example, the Russian explanation when a Russian missile hit a shopping mall in Kramatorsk? The Russians denied the hit and explained it as a fire that spilled over to the mall, although there were videos that showed that it was a Russian missile that was responsible for the civilian deaths.

Russian officialdom, gotcha. That's why I've never come across it... my suggestion is avoiding that particular refuse heap as a source of information, with the exception of individual major incidents where official stances matter.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545114717236125696

his right arm flew off during the trials of this Wunderwaffe?

I mean... this isn't new or even strange. Ukraine adapted 82mm mortar shells to be fired from an RPG with no tripod of any kind.

I don't think his arm flew off, I think this is a one-armed man doing the firing. I also doubt he is a Russian soldier. The uniform and the missing arm point to likely a rebel and likely not even a soldier but some of local "industry" specialist. The tripod is in principle actually a better set up then the Ukrainian one of simply shoulder-firing mortar shells from an RPG, assuming they're using an HE-FRAG warhead. Both approaches are of course unimpressive and not particular effective.

 

[vikingatespam]

I think that's a question we can also be asking about the Russians. How much arty ammo stocks did they; how long can they manage their stocks at the current rate of usage and are factories producing more stocks?

The Russians meanwhile seem to have sorted out some of their previous shortcomings but whether it ultimately proves decisive still remains to be seen; still early days. What also remains to be seen is whether Western arms deliveries and other forms of support to the Ukraine will enable it to keep the Russians at bay. It's just personal opinion but as things stand we might might eventually reach both sides have fought themselves to a stalemate; neither able to inflict a decisive defeat on one another.

I think we can all agree the Severodonetsk battles were playing to the RU strengths.

If the RU are running low on arty stocks, their chances of making progress seem to be fairly poor. I assume they have a ton of Warsaw Pact era stores, but I also bet those stores are generally in sorry shape, if their tank reserves serve as an example. There have been recent reports on the RU drawing stocks of ammo from Belarus. Signs of a shortage ?