Very true indeed. Things don't happen in a vacuum and are a result of certain actions; rightly or wrongly as one perceives them.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
That's what I meant -- Stolz in particular but also to some extent Macron are focusing too narrowly on their own local, near-term, political concerns. It seems they are missing the big picture (or perhaps not missing it, perhaps they just ignore it -- the outcome is the same).
By virtue of being politicians they are focusing on internal political issues [which play a large part in foreign policy] in order to stay in power and strengthen their political position. I doubt it's about them ''missing the big picture'' or about the need to ''learn lot to learn from Poland and the Baltics'' but rather what they are able to do being governed or restrained by internal political factors prevalent. Politically the environment/mood is/was different in the Baltics and other places.
Freedom is essential and should not be traded for cheap gas and oil. A previous generation paid a steep price during WW2 to keep Europe free, often with their lives. Europe should accept to pay for higher gas bills and a slower economical recovery to support Ukraine in defending their country against Russia. Ukrainian soldiers are fighting and dying, not French or German soldiers. However this war directly affect the security and stability of Europe. The sooner it ends the better. Russia is clearly not willing to step down, and has ignored pleas to stop war crimes and genocidal activities in occupied areas. The quickest way to end this war is to provide more support to Ukraine.
Western politicians including those in France and Germany need to communicate better why it's important to support Ukraine even if it comes with a cost. The UK politicians seems to be doing a better job in this respect, even if the UK economy is suffering not just from COVID-19 but also Brexit.
I fully agree with NATO secretary Stoltenberg who said "the West should not trade long-term security needs for short-term economic interests" NATO Secretary General at Davos: “freedom is more important than free trade”
No offence but spare me the lectures on freedom; democracy, sacrifice etc. I merely said that Germany and France have their own reasons for doing what they do and that it's silly to suggest that they're 'missing the big picture'' or about the need to ''learn lot to learn from Poland and the Baltics''.
I never suggested what they're doing is right or wrong; merely that its driven by domestic political issues.
True indeed and lest it be forgotten a previous generation of non Europeans in WW2 also paid a steep price to keep their countries [mostly under colonisation by European countries which were themselves occupied by the Germans] and paid the ultimate price.
In theory maybe; in reality this remains to be seen irrespective of whether you think otherwise. It also remains to be seen if all this Western assistance will enable the Ukraine to sustain the fight indefinitely; it too is taking losses and there is only so much it can take.
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vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Hello Everyone ! It is finally good to find a forum populated and properly moderated by adults. I have been reading here for about a week and there are so many interesting points to touch on.
Americans serving in Ukraine: I have 2 personal anecdotes. First, I know someone who has been strongly motivated to go there and fight. He has been to the Ukrainian embassy several times and and been in contact with the State Dept. He tells me that while in the first days, there was no friction in going over, that has changed and now there is much more friction coming from the State Dept. He was told the legality was murky.
Second, I am friends with a local security contractor (fully legitimate, been overseas to several places). He tells me he was offered a contract with a licensed company to go to UKR. He turned it down due to the perceived lack of logistical structure over there. From various accounts of foreigners who have been there, it appears that the support structure is rather ad-hoc. That shouldnt be surprising; the UKR command has more pressing concerns.
If you havnt seen it, here is the first part of an interesting interview with one of the more well-known Americans who served over there:
On a separate subject, I had questions about the supposed 90 days contracts of Russian soldiers. I hear a lot about how the non-conscripts have 90-day contracts as this is not a "war", and they can walk away after that time. Has anyone been able to validate this ? If true, is there some sort of stop-loss ability from the Russian command ?
Americans serving in Ukraine: I have 2 personal anecdotes. First, I know someone who has been strongly motivated to go there and fight. He has been to the Ukrainian embassy several times and and been in contact with the State Dept. He tells me that while in the first days, there was no friction in going over, that has changed and now there is much more friction coming from the State Dept. He was told the legality was murky.
Second, I am friends with a local security contractor (fully legitimate, been overseas to several places). He tells me he was offered a contract with a licensed company to go to UKR. He turned it down due to the perceived lack of logistical structure over there. From various accounts of foreigners who have been there, it appears that the support structure is rather ad-hoc. That shouldnt be surprising; the UKR command has more pressing concerns.
If you havnt seen it, here is the first part of an interesting interview with one of the more well-known Americans who served over there:
On a separate subject, I had questions about the supposed 90 days contracts of Russian soldiers. I hear a lot about how the non-conscripts have 90-day contracts as this is not a "war", and they can walk away after that time. Has anyone been able to validate this ? If true, is there some sort of stop-loss ability from the Russian command ?
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When the war started the Ukrainians felt they needed all the help they could get [justifiably so] and foreign volunteers pouring in sent a strong message; that Ukraine was not alone. As it stands; after more than 100 days of war are foreign volunteers [no offence to them] really needed by the Ukrainians? Question I also have is whether foreign volunteers are still arriving and how many have actually left?
Putin’s war is a war of national extermination. He has made no secret of his aim to destroy Ukraine’s cultural and national identity. In the parts of Ukraine they occupy, Russian forces have established “filtration camps” where they question Ukrainians and deport them against their will to Russia. They have committed mass killings and rapes. They have destroyed Ukrainian culture, targeting historical sites, looting museums, and burning books.
Those who call on Ukraine to give up territory therefore need to own up to the consequences. Millions of people would never return to their homes. Thousands of civilians would be killed, tortured, and raped. Children would be taken from their parents. The Ukrainians remaining under Russian occupation would be stripped of their national identity and placed under permanent, hostile submission. Professors, teachers, writers, journalists, civic leaders, local activists, and anyone else with what Putin has termed a “Nazi” (read: Ukrainian) identity would probably be harassed and perhaps imprisoned or deported. Accepting further Russian occupation of Ukraine would mean accepting these inevitable moral and ethical consequences. The atrocities would not stop if the fighting ended. To the contrary, surrendering territory to achieve a peace dictated by Moscow would vindicate such tactics and lock in their consequences forever.
Advocates of a diplomatic settlement are also unrealistic about its long-term implications for European peace, security, and deterrence. Underlying their proposals is the assumption that a negotiated settlement now would lead to a permanent solution in which Ukraine gives up the territory now under Russian occupation—namely, Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, and perhaps Kherson and other territories—and an independent rump state would develop freely to pursue its ambitions of European integration. The idea is to emulate past settlements in which territory was partitioned and stability ensued, such as the division of Germany in 1945 and the Korean armistice of 1953.
But Ukraine is a profoundly different case. Since his February 24 speech that launched the war, Putin has made explicit in word and deed that he intends to destroy Ukrainian independence writ large. A settlement that surrenders some Ukrainian territory to Russia is unlikely to end Russia’s desires to deny Ukraine true nationhood. The Soviet Union accepted West Germany as a sovereign country during the Cold War, but Putin would never do the same for Ukraine, which he fundamentally does not see as an independent nation.
At best, Russian-occupied Ukraine would be the site of another so-called frozen conflict, but even that concept is a misnomer and illusion. Frozen conflicts imply a stable permanency, but they are anything but that. As was the case with Luhansk and Donetsk, where the invasion began, gray zones often become launching pads for greater aggression. Moscow’s occupation of Crimea, another so-called frozen conflict, has allowed Russian forces to impose an economic blockade, cutting off vital agricultural exports from Ukraine and igniting a global food crisis. Creating more such gray zones in Ukraine might produce a tenuous short-term stop to the fighting, but as recent history has shown, they would also enable the Kremlin to use these territories to destabilize Ukraine and Europe and rebuild its strength.
The United States, Europe, and Ukraine’s other friends have a responsibility to help Ukraine prevail commensurate with that possibility. The goal now for the West is to thwart an adversary—not to convince or pressure Ukraine to give up. That means sending more arms to Ukraine and putting more economic pressure on Russia.
Such a plan does not rule out negotiations. Zelensky and his government have not done so. In fact, they showed more commitment to negotiations in the early weeks of the war than the Kremlin did. The time for negotiations may come—which is why the job now is to put Ukraine in the most favorable position possible in anticipation of that moment so that it has the best options available.
www.foreignaffairs.com
Those who call on Ukraine to give up territory therefore need to own up to the consequences. Millions of people would never return to their homes. Thousands of civilians would be killed, tortured, and raped. Children would be taken from their parents. The Ukrainians remaining under Russian occupation would be stripped of their national identity and placed under permanent, hostile submission. Professors, teachers, writers, journalists, civic leaders, local activists, and anyone else with what Putin has termed a “Nazi” (read: Ukrainian) identity would probably be harassed and perhaps imprisoned or deported. Accepting further Russian occupation of Ukraine would mean accepting these inevitable moral and ethical consequences. The atrocities would not stop if the fighting ended. To the contrary, surrendering territory to achieve a peace dictated by Moscow would vindicate such tactics and lock in their consequences forever.
Advocates of a diplomatic settlement are also unrealistic about its long-term implications for European peace, security, and deterrence. Underlying their proposals is the assumption that a negotiated settlement now would lead to a permanent solution in which Ukraine gives up the territory now under Russian occupation—namely, Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, and perhaps Kherson and other territories—and an independent rump state would develop freely to pursue its ambitions of European integration. The idea is to emulate past settlements in which territory was partitioned and stability ensued, such as the division of Germany in 1945 and the Korean armistice of 1953.
But Ukraine is a profoundly different case. Since his February 24 speech that launched the war, Putin has made explicit in word and deed that he intends to destroy Ukrainian independence writ large. A settlement that surrenders some Ukrainian territory to Russia is unlikely to end Russia’s desires to deny Ukraine true nationhood. The Soviet Union accepted West Germany as a sovereign country during the Cold War, but Putin would never do the same for Ukraine, which he fundamentally does not see as an independent nation.
At best, Russian-occupied Ukraine would be the site of another so-called frozen conflict, but even that concept is a misnomer and illusion. Frozen conflicts imply a stable permanency, but they are anything but that. As was the case with Luhansk and Donetsk, where the invasion began, gray zones often become launching pads for greater aggression. Moscow’s occupation of Crimea, another so-called frozen conflict, has allowed Russian forces to impose an economic blockade, cutting off vital agricultural exports from Ukraine and igniting a global food crisis. Creating more such gray zones in Ukraine might produce a tenuous short-term stop to the fighting, but as recent history has shown, they would also enable the Kremlin to use these territories to destabilize Ukraine and Europe and rebuild its strength.
The United States, Europe, and Ukraine’s other friends have a responsibility to help Ukraine prevail commensurate with that possibility. The goal now for the West is to thwart an adversary—not to convince or pressure Ukraine to give up. That means sending more arms to Ukraine and putting more economic pressure on Russia.
Such a plan does not rule out negotiations. Zelensky and his government have not done so. In fact, they showed more commitment to negotiations in the early weeks of the war than the Kremlin did. The time for negotiations may come—which is why the job now is to put Ukraine in the most favorable position possible in anticipation of that moment so that it has the best options available.
No Peace at Any Price in Ukraine
It’s too soon for a lasting diplomatic settlement.
I have no idea who here is calling on ''on Ukraine to give up territory'' but it's a commonly accepted fact that unless Russia is totally defeated and suing for peace[unlikely] ; as part of the process to reach a common agreement for an end to hostilities; concessions/trade offs will have to be made by both parties. It is not appeasement or rewarding the aggressor but the necessary price to be paid; the Ukrainians despite their rhetoric understand this. The alternative is the war dragging on indefinitely and more death and destruction. I will also remind you that it's up to the Ukrainians; their country being invaded; their people dying. You are also basing your assumption on the Ukraine emerging as the victor; what if it doesn't and feels it has to negotiate? Will you still say they should not give up any territory? If you care to take a historical look; unless its unconditional surrender or capitulation; countries tend to make concessions/trade offs [despite it often being distasteful] as a price for peace.
Different period at play; different dynamics; different threat perceptions, etc. The Soviet Union had the DDR as consolation and a buffer and had no choice but to accept the FRG or face war with NATO.
Sounds great on paper and PowerPoint slides but if the war drags on indefinitely with Russia able to sustain itself despite all the Western assistance and sanctions; what next? What's the Plan B?
Has it occurred to you that like all politicians; especially those at war; he might change his goals to be in line with reality; despite all the chest beating and rhetoric?
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vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Morally, I hate to see UKR lose any territory. However, without the collapse of the RU army, the separatist parts of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea are gone and will likely only be regained after Putin dies.
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Singapore to make a small and humble humanitarian assistance package contribution to address some of the suffering that is occurring in Ukraine. The decision to donate these vehicles must have been made 45 to 60 days ago, for the customisation to occur and long lead time items to arrive in-country.
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #3,612
Can you provide specific evidence of this? Filtration camps in particular is an interesting term. It's heavily loaded with interpretation. Ukraine created a large territorial defense structure and distributed large quantities of weapons in a nearly uncontrollable manner in the early days of the war. Any occupying security force would be concerned with identifying these people. We've also seen widespread house raids by Russian security forces in occupied areas. But we haven't seen any large camps of detainees.
The only claim of mass deportation comes from less than reliable Ukrainian sources. Do you have evidence to show deportations of any significant quantities beyond regular POWs and the occasional high-value detainee? To be clear, what are you stating here exactly?
I'll leave the question of mass killing out of this, until the investigation at Bucha concludes.
The claims of mass rapes by Lyudmila Denisova have been retracted. Apparently they were "exaggerated" in an attempt to garner sympathy and get more military support. Do you have another source indicating that this is true nonetheless?
Lyudmila Denisova: Disgraced Ombudswoman Fired by Ukraine Parliament Admits She Lied About Rapes Committed by Russian Soldiers
She said that she "exaggerated" reports of sexual crimes by Russian soldiers on Ukrainian civilians in a bid to "convince the world to provide weapons and pressure on behalf of Kyiv's administration, Sputnik reported.
Let's be clear, pre-war Russia was a major migration destination for Ukrainians due to a more attractive job market. Even more attractive was the EU, the US, and really anywhere else where stable work with decent pay was available. Ukraine was bleeding population at a high rate before this war. This was has made all of that worse. If the concern is people's ability to return to their homes, ending the war is by far the best way of accomplishing that. Realistically the longer this war goes on, the fewer people will have homes to return to, and the more of them will put down roots elsewhere for better or worse. For civilians killed, a major assault on a city like Mariupol' likely produces a deathtoll that dwarfs Bucha. Again continued fighting is far worse here then anything short of systematic massmurder.
None of this was true in Crimea or even in the LDNR. What makes you think this would be true here? Even Putin has not termed anything that's Ukrainian as Nazi. There are ~3 million Ukrainians living in Russia right now. Is there any evidence of discrimination against them?
This wouldn't be a rump state at all. It would still be most of Ukraine, including direct Black Sea access through Nikolaev and Odessa, control of all the largest cities that Ukraine had pre-war (the only "major" cities Ukraine lost this war are Mariupol' and Kherson, neither even 500 000 inhabitants). Putin would get the rump state, if he tried to form one out of what he now controls. Granted that doesn't appear to be the direction he's going in. Instead it appears these areas are going to be annexed directly. Overall the comparison with the division of Germany and the Korean armistice don't appear to be accurate.
Can you provide some support for this? Putin's intentions at the beginning of the war are one thing. His intentions now another. Military reality has intervened.
Much of your argument reads like an anti-Russian propaganda piece, poorly rooted in the realities of this war and charged with emotional language based on dubious claims.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #3,613
Some interesting thoughts on casualty figures. I compared Oryx blog, a definitely anti-Russian sources, with lostarmour, a distinctly pro-Russian source, on Ukrainian equipment losses. Oryx lists 1147 instances, and lostarmour lists 1279 for Ukraine. This is a tiny discrepancy for OSINT on destroyed vehicles. It highlights how consistent OSINT has been in this war.
Lostarmour also published a list of DNR casualties. It lists 2k KIA and 8.5k WIA. At first these numbers seem small but this is acutally ~50% of their pre-war strength. Note this is just DNR, LNR casualties are separate. This corresponds well with the reports of their large casulaties and the need to pull reservists in large numbers on all sections. The LNR quite likely took at least similar levels of losses.
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
Lostarmour also published a list of DNR casualties. It lists 2k KIA and 8.5k WIA. At first these numbers seem small but this is acutally ~50% of their pre-war strength. Note this is just DNR, LNR casualties are separate. This corresponds well with the reports of their large casulaties and the need to pull reservists in large numbers on all sections. The LNR quite likely took at least similar levels of losses.
Потери армии ДНР с 18.02 по 09.06.2022
Лост Армор о потерях армии ДНР. Потери армии ДНР с 18.02 по 09.06.2022 Данные по потерям личного состава ДНР: Итог с начала активной фазы боевых действий 2057 погибших и 8526 раненых. Общие потери за 16 недель 10583 человек (то есть около 50% состава 1 АК на начало…
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
Perhaps this United Nations ruling on conduct and war crimes with definitions may be of use to members who have not come across it in considering if there have been breaches of such articles
United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
This report by TASS does state that civilians including children are taken from the Ukraine
Live updates l TASS: more than 1M Ukrainians taken to Russia | AP News
Live updates l TASS: more than 1M Ukrainians taken to Russia | AP News
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #3,616
Update.
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Battle damage from a Russian strike, allegedly a staging area for Ukraine's 28th Bde. This is presumably Nikolaev, one of the recent strikes.
t.me
Battle damage from a Russian strike in Kharkov, allegedly a staging area for the 92nd Bde.
t.me
Russian strike on a fuel storage facility in Kobzartsy, Nikolaev region.
t.me
Kharkov-Sumy.
Russian Mi-35M in action, allegedly Kharkov region. I don't believe we've seen this relatively scarce Hind variant in action during this war yet.
Russian Iskander strike in Kharkov.
t.me
Russian strike allegedly on rail infrastructure in Kharkov.
vk.com
Battle damage to a shopping center in Kharkov after a Russian strike. It was allegedly a staging area for Ukrainian forces.
t.me
Apparently Russia is forming a military-civil administration in Kharkov region.
aftershock.news
The Izyum Salient.
Russian troops firing BM-21s and TOS-1 from Kharkov region border into Donetsk region.
t.me
vk.com
t.me
Ukrainian munitions captured allegedly in Svyatogorsk.
LDNR Front.
Apparently a destroyed Ukrainian 2S7 allegedly near Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
t.me
Allegedly a Russian loitering munition strike near Bakhmut (Artemovsk).
t.me
Russian strikes on Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
t.me
LNR artillery firing on Toshkovka.
vk.com
Russian short documentary of the assault on Kamyshevakha. The town is now apparently in Russian hands. We have LNR forces in action the 6th Cossack rgt. According to the post, the tank company commander we see in this was killed in action shortly after this was filmed.
vk.com
Allegedly, Russian SpN somewhere in action, Donbass.
t.me
Battle damage after an alleged Ukrainian strike, Stakhanov, LNR area. Apparently a high-ranking Russian mercenary curator, Prigozhin, arrived in the area prior to the strike.
t.me
BMPTs near Severodonetsk.
t.me
vk.com
Allegedly LNR forces using the same truck+S-60 combination we recently saw in Ukrainian territorial defense formations.
t.me
Allegedly LNR forces training with NLAWs.
vk.com
Russia.
Russian National Guard units returning from deployment to Ukraine. Either Russia has seriously scaled back the troops of interior deployment, or they're rotating units.
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
Misc.
Russian Mi-35M in action over Ukraine. It's not clear if it's the same unit as above, but it would make sense if it was.
vk.com
Russian Ka-52s lobbing rockets, allegedly in support of the 76th VDV.
t.me
Russian BM-27 night-fires. Location and context unclear.
vk.com
Russian or rebel forces with BMP-2 support entering a town in Ukraine. Location and context unclear.
vk.com
Russia claims they've used a flight of Su-57s in Ukraine, acting as a single unit, datalinked.
vk.com
Russian T-72B3 uparmored with rocks, Syria-style.
vk.com
Russian or rebel forces apparently captured not 1 but 2 T-72M1s, 1 uparmored with K-1.
t.me
vk.com
vk.com
Destroyed T-64BV, allegedly Ukrainian.
Ukrainian territorial defense fighter with an Italian Beretta 42/59 machinegun and a Soviet PPSh.
t.me
vk.com
Ukrainian forces using a rare Grad-1 MLRS.
A Ukrainian MiG-29 damaged, and repaired. Location and context unclear.
vk.com
Abandoned Ukrainian munitions. Note these are mortar shells adapted to be fired out of an RPG.
t.me
NATO/EU.
M-270 MLRS moving around, allegedly in Poland near the Ukrainian border.
There are reports that German M-270 deliveries are significantly delayed.
t.me
Czech Dana howitzers confirmed in Ukraine.
t.me
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Battle damage from a Russian strike, allegedly a staging area for Ukraine's 28th Bde. This is presumably Nikolaev, one of the recent strikes.
Херсонский Вестник
#былостало ‼️‼️‼️ Потери 28 омбр по самым скромным данным составили 6 бронеавтомобилей, 40 тонн боеприпасов и 32 военнослужащих ВСУ убитыми и раненными. ⚡️‼️⚡️Демилитаризация идет по плану⚡️‼️⚡️
t.me
Battle damage from a Russian strike in Kharkov, allegedly a staging area for the 92nd Bde.
Рыбарь
А вот и последствия огневого поражения позиций 92 омбр в Новобаварском районе Харькова. На видео — остатки грузинского кафе «Риони», где располагался штаб противотанкового артиллерийского дивизиона бригады. По предварительной информации, жертвами ударов стали трое бойцов ВСУ. Еще пятеро...
t.me
Russian strike on a fuel storage facility in Kobzartsy, Nikolaev region.
Херсонский Вестник
#эксклюзив Уничтожены склады нефтепродуктов ВСУ в селе Кобзарцы Николаевской области. Стало известно, что для отпуск бензина и дизельного топлива для гражданского населения и муниципальных служб Николаева и области резко сокращается. Все горюче-смазочные материалы пойдут на нужды ВСУ.
t.me
Kharkov-Sumy.
Russian Mi-35M in action, allegedly Kharkov region. I don't believe we've seen this relatively scarce Hind variant in action during this war yet.
Russian Iskander strike in Kharkov.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️ Кадры удара: "Искандеры" поразили цели в Харькове, прогремели 4 мощнейших взрыва После взрыва полыхает огонь. t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
Russian strike allegedly on rail infrastructure in Kharkov.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Battle damage to a shopping center in Kharkov after a Russian strike. It was allegedly a staging area for Ukrainian forces.
Оперативные сводки
"Откалиброванный" этой ночью торговый центр в Харькове, где укровояки обустроили свои позиции. И как говорил Суворов: Мы - русские, какой "Восторг"! @opersvodki
t.me
Apparently Russia is forming a military-civil administration in Kharkov region.
На освобождённых территориях Харьковской области создана временная гражданская администрация с центром в Купянске (greench_unblocked)
Россия пока что освободила несколько преимущественно сельских районов Харьковской области, и так как на освобождённых территориях нет крупных городов, создание новых органов местного самоуправления отставало от Херсонской и Запорожской областей. И вот дело сдвинулось с мертвой точки -...
The Izyum Salient.
Russian troops firing BM-21s and TOS-1 from Kharkov region border into Donetsk region.
Старше Эдды
Будни войны. Изюмский фронт. БМ 21 наносит удары по позициям ВСУ в лесном массиве на границе ДНР и Харьковской области.
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
WarDonbass
ТОС-1А "Солнцепёк" наносит удар по позициям ВСУ на границе Харьковской области и ДНР, поддерживая наступление ВС РФ.
t.me
Ukrainian munitions captured allegedly in Svyatogorsk.
LDNR Front.
Apparently a destroyed Ukrainian 2S7 allegedly near Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
ANNA NEWS
Российская артиллерия уничтожила украинский "Пион" Российская артиллерия уничтожила украинскую 203-мм самоходную артиллерийскую 2С7 "Пион" в районе Артемовска. Видео: @sashakots @anna_news
t.me
Allegedly a Russian loitering munition strike near Bakhmut (Artemovsk).
Kotsnews
⚡️Уникальные кадры удара барражирующего боеприпаса «Куб» по опорнику ВСУ. На Бахмутском направлении работает десантура. @sashakots
t.me
Russian strikes on Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️ Нанесён удар по промзоне Артемовска Разрушен один из цехов «Машиностроительного завода «Вистек», где ВСУ разместили военную технику, готовясь к обороне. t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
LNR artillery firing on Toshkovka.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian short documentary of the assault on Kamyshevakha. The town is now apparently in Russian hands. We have LNR forces in action the 6th Cossack rgt. According to the post, the tank company commander we see in this was killed in action shortly after this was filmed.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Allegedly, Russian SpN somewhere in action, Donbass.
ANNA NEWS
Бой от первого лица Столкновение российского подразделения спецназа с противником где-то на Донбассе. видео: @Dr_Livsi_Ru anna_news
t.me
Battle damage after an alleged Ukrainian strike, Stakhanov, LNR area. Apparently a high-ranking Russian mercenary curator, Prigozhin, arrived in the area prior to the strike.
Рыбарь
Кадры последствий удара по Стаханову Луганской Народной Республики. В населенный пункт накануне прибыл хозяин «ЧВК Вагнера» Евгений Пригожин. Хотя ВСУ и разгоняют сейчас новости о полном уничтожении базы «ЧВК Вагнера», Евгений Пригожин с Дмитрием Уткиным пьют чай, глядя на пожар, и с ними...
t.me
BMPTs near Severodonetsk.
Военный обозреватель
Боевые машины поддержки танков "Терминатор" на северодонецком направлении. #Донбасс @new_militarycolumnist
t.me
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Allegedly LNR forces using the same truck+S-60 combination we recently saw in Ukrainian territorial defense formations.
China army
Луганские ребята ведут стрельбу из 57-мм автоматической зенитной пушки С-60 на базе автомобиля.
t.me
Allegedly LNR forces training with NLAWs.
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Russia.
Russian National Guard units returning from deployment to Ukraine. Either Russia has seriously scaled back the troops of interior deployment, or they're rotating units.
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Misc.
Russian Mi-35M in action over Ukraine. It's not clear if it's the same unit as above, but it would make sense if it was.
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Russian Ka-52s lobbing rockets, allegedly in support of the 76th VDV.
БелВПО
Боевые вертолёты Ка-52 ВКС России прикрывают подразделения 76 гвардейской десантно-штурмовой дивизии в зоне проведения специальной военной операции на Украине.
t.me
Russian BM-27 night-fires. Location and context unclear.
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Russian or rebel forces with BMP-2 support entering a town in Ukraine. Location and context unclear.
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Russia claims they've used a flight of Su-57s in Ukraine, acting as a single unit, datalinked.
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Russian T-72B3 uparmored with rocks, Syria-style.
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Russian or rebel forces apparently captured not 1 but 2 T-72M1s, 1 uparmored with K-1.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️ Бойцы ️тважных захватили новенький чешский танк Танк Т-72М1 произведен Болгарией, передан Чехией на Украину, а теперь повоюет в Армии России. Танк, захваченный мотострелками группировки "О", имеет всего 19 км пробега, полный боекомплект и теперь славно послужит делу освобождения Донбасса...
t.me
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Destroyed T-64BV, allegedly Ukrainian.
Ukrainian territorial defense fighter with an Italian Beretta 42/59 machinegun and a Soviet PPSh.
Центр Рубеж
Боевик из украинского фольксштурма позирует с советским пистолетом-пулеметом Шпагина (ППШ) и итальянским пулеметом Beretta MG 42/59.
t.me
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Ukrainian forces using a rare Grad-1 MLRS.
A Ukrainian MiG-29 damaged, and repaired. Location and context unclear.
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Abandoned Ukrainian munitions. Note these are mortar shells adapted to be fired out of an RPG.
МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ ФАН
Маленькая зарисовочка наших военкоров о том, что могут рассказать, например, даже просто брошенные боеприпасы. #Попасная @riafan_everywhere
t.me
NATO/EU.
M-270 MLRS moving around, allegedly in Poland near the Ukrainian border.
There are reports that German M-270 deliveries are significantly delayed.
Повёрнутые на войне
РСЗО, которые обещали в ФРГ передать Киеву, прибудут на Украину не раньше зимы из-за отсутствия нужного программного обеспечения.
t.me
Czech Dana howitzers confirmed in Ukraine.
Военный обозреватель
Чешские САУ Dana на службе ВСУ в зоне боевых действий. #Украина @new_militarycolumnist
t.me
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #3,617
I'm about 24 hours behind. It appears another Russian offensive is brewing. Russian forces are advancing towards Bakhmut/Artemovsk from the south and towards Slavyansk from the north. I would have assumed they will try to finish the encirclement around Donetsk, using the breakout from Popasnaya, but this apparently is not the case. Possibly Russian forces are stalled trying to cut that last road through Seversk to Lisichansk. Russia also has apparently stopped their attack in Severodonetsk, likely due to stiff Ukrainian resistance. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces at the Azot factory are cut off from the main forces in Lisichansk.
These are Putin's own words about what he wants. I have copied the pertinent paragraphs from the Kremlin's English Translation:
There can be no ambiguity or misrepresentation by reading them through the lens of a media source either Russian or western. Narva is in Estonia and was conquered from the Swedish Kingdom during the Great Northern War of 1700 - 1721 between Russian and Sweden. Every man and his dog in Eastern Europe was involved in that war and even the Ottomans were helping out.
Source: 1024px-Russia_1533-1896.gif (1024×727) (wikimedia.org)
Source: Growth of Russian Empire (studylib.net)
If you look at Putin's speech the operative word is return and and he uses that frequently. He attempts to compare himself with Peter the Great by saying "... The same is true of the western direction, Narva and his first campaigns. Why would he go there? He was returning and reinforcing, that is what he was doing. Clearly, it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well." So Ukraine is just one step on his way to returning imperial Russia to her former glory and extent. The two maps above show the full extent of the Russian Empire including the Soviet times up to 1991. He won't stop until he has achieved his goal. It may not just be him either because it's been suggested that Nikolai Patrushev and Dmitry Medvedev are what one US media writer calls ultra hawks, Russia Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin's threat to Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Baltic states in speech - NZ Herald, who I liken to the US neocons that were prevalent ten years ago and longer. If that is indeed the case then even when Putin falls off his perch (dies), his expansionist policy isn't going to die with him. This could be a recurring problem with Russia for the foreseeable future.
Some time ago I had a discussion with the Patriarch about education, and he happened to say that even though education was indeed crucial, without proper upbringing we would not succeed at anything, because you can teach a person something, but the question is how they will use their knowledge. Science, education, upbringing, and health care are critically important, because without them demographic issues cannot be resolved, and so on. What about culture? If we do not rely on the basic values of the national cultures of the peoples of Russia, we will not consolidate our society. Without consolidation, everything will fall apart. And the fact that we have to sort of defend ourselves and fight for it is obvious.
We visited the exhibition dedicated to the 350th birth anniversary of Peter the Great. Almost nothing has changed. It is a remarkable thing. You come to this realisation, this understanding.
Peter the Great waged the Great Northern War for 21 years. On the face of it, he was at war with Sweden taking something away from it… He was not taking away anything, he was returning. This is how it was. The areas around Lake Ladoga, where St Petersburg was founded. When he founded the new capital, none of the European countries recognised this territory as part of Russia; everyone recognised it as part of Sweden. However, from time immemorial, the Slavs lived there along with the Finno-Ugric peoples, and this territory was under Russia’s control. The same is true of the western direction, Narva and his first campaigns. Why would he go there? He was returning and reinforcing, that is what he was doing.
Clearly, it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well. And if we operate on the premise that these basic values constitute the basis of our existence, we will certainly succeed in achieving our goals."
Source: Meeting with young entrepreneurs, engineers and scientists • President of Russia (kremlin.ru)
There can be no ambiguity or misrepresentation by reading them through the lens of a media source either Russian or western. Narva is in Estonia and was conquered from the Swedish Kingdom during the Great Northern War of 1700 - 1721 between Russian and Sweden. Every man and his dog in Eastern Europe was involved in that war and even the Ottomans were helping out.
Source: 1024px-Russia_1533-1896.gif (1024×727) (wikimedia.org)
Source: Growth of Russian Empire (studylib.net)
If you look at Putin's speech the operative word is return and and he uses that frequently. He attempts to compare himself with Peter the Great by saying "... The same is true of the western direction, Narva and his first campaigns. Why would he go there? He was returning and reinforcing, that is what he was doing. Clearly, it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well." So Ukraine is just one step on his way to returning imperial Russia to her former glory and extent. The two maps above show the full extent of the Russian Empire including the Soviet times up to 1991. He won't stop until he has achieved his goal. It may not just be him either because it's been suggested that Nikolai Patrushev and Dmitry Medvedev are what one US media writer calls ultra hawks, Russia Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin's threat to Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Baltic states in speech - NZ Herald, who I liken to the US neocons that were prevalent ten years ago and longer. If that is indeed the case then even when Putin falls off his perch (dies), his expansionist policy isn't going to die with him. This could be a recurring problem with Russia for the foreseeable future.
This is worrying but to be expected. After 100 over days in combat it's hardly surprising that the Ukrainians are very stretched. Since this war started we've constantly heard about the many issues faced by the Russians but much less by the Ukrainians. It's also helped that the Ukrainians have done a very good job keeping their casualties under wraps.
uk.news.yahoo.com
"One hundred seven days into Putin's invasion of Ukraine, reports are emerging that the Ukrainian military is experiencing "massive losses," and cases of desertion are growing, an intelligence report says"
"Up to 200 Ukrainian soldiers are killed every day, an aide to President Zelenskyytold the BBC on Friday, and there are now signs that Ukrainian fighters' morale is starting to buckle"
"The report, says Kim Sengupta of The Independent, describes the spike in deaths as having "a seriously demoralizing effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week"
Cases of desertion are growing among Ukrainian forces suffering significant losses in Russia's artillery onslaught, report says
An intelligence report reveals Ukraine is suffering thousands of casualties and are outgunned by Putin's forces in the Donbas, says The Independent.
"One hundred seven days into Putin's invasion of Ukraine, reports are emerging that the Ukrainian military is experiencing "massive losses," and cases of desertion are growing, an intelligence report says"
"Up to 200 Ukrainian soldiers are killed every day, an aide to President Zelenskyytold the BBC on Friday, and there are now signs that Ukrainian fighters' morale is starting to buckle"
"The report, says Kim Sengupta of The Independent, describes the spike in deaths as having "a seriously demoralizing effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week"
Of the UA losses and dessertions what approximate percentage are the poorly equipped TDF? If Ukraine is throwing their poorest units in the meat grinders where they cannot win, it may look cruel, but would be the most effective thing to do in their position. They have a large enough male population that they can replace tdf units quickly enough. And they need their properly trained and equipped units for counter attacks in areas where Russians are spread thinner. Makes no sense to throw away veteran units in hopeless defenses of cities/villages that will fall soon or be encircled.