The talk on here of what the possible conclusions to this war are is somewhat very premature because neither side has given any indication that it is willing to retreat from it's current diplomatic positions. Ukraine will not (rightly) cede any territory to Russia; and Russia will not be swayed from it's goals. By rights Russia should be forced to withdraw to the pre 2014 borders, whether it likes it or not because in this case it is the aggressor no mater what spurious claims have been put forward. Sorry @Feanor Russia has no legal or moral claims for its actions against Ukraine whatsoever. There are other ways to have dealt with any perceived problems. It chose not to go down that path, but chose the path of war instead.
Next both sides are reaching a point where their human forces are growing tired. For Ukraine that is a serious problem because they don't have a major reserve that they can utilise. Meanwhile Putin has caused his own problems because of his domestic framing of the war and he's painted himself into a real corner because of it. The Russian forces are facing the same human problems as the Ukrainians, however they do have an excess of human capital that they could access but for their political master's brilliant framing of the war for domestic political purposes. Since in his infinite wisdom he deemed it a "Special Military Operation" he has denied himself the ability to put Russia and its economy on a war footing, so he can't enable universal conscription, without a major political backdown; admitting he stuffed up and the war, ahem Special Military Operation, isn't going as planned.
The next problem is the fracturing of the European / NATO commitment and that may have already started with the recent Macron / Scholz call to Putin. Such calls didn't work before and they just play into Putin's hands. Putin isn't interested in reaching any agreement until all of his conditions are met. He plays on the lack of European unity which is the norm rather than a rarity. According to Angela Merkel the only language Putin understands is deterrence and that he's attacking everything that western liberal democracy stands for. She said that Ukraine is a very different country to what it was seven years ago because now it's much more of a stable democracy which is why Putin sees it as such a threat. She said that after dealing with Putin for 16 years "... it has become clear that we haven't effectively been able to put an end to the Cold War and there has always been the issue of Russia." She also explained why she was against Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO in the 2000s, and Ukraine again in 2014.
So there's a lot that has to happen before we can look at any possible outcomes after the shooting stops. At the moment anything is pure supposition without any real evidence to support claims. It's a case of wait and see at the moment.
Next both sides are reaching a point where their human forces are growing tired. For Ukraine that is a serious problem because they don't have a major reserve that they can utilise. Meanwhile Putin has caused his own problems because of his domestic framing of the war and he's painted himself into a real corner because of it. The Russian forces are facing the same human problems as the Ukrainians, however they do have an excess of human capital that they could access but for their political master's brilliant framing of the war for domestic political purposes. Since in his infinite wisdom he deemed it a "Special Military Operation" he has denied himself the ability to put Russia and its economy on a war footing, so he can't enable universal conscription, without a major political backdown; admitting he stuffed up and the war, ahem Special Military Operation, isn't going as planned.
The next problem is the fracturing of the European / NATO commitment and that may have already started with the recent Macron / Scholz call to Putin. Such calls didn't work before and they just play into Putin's hands. Putin isn't interested in reaching any agreement until all of his conditions are met. He plays on the lack of European unity which is the norm rather than a rarity. According to Angela Merkel the only language Putin understands is deterrence and that he's attacking everything that western liberal democracy stands for. She said that Ukraine is a very different country to what it was seven years ago because now it's much more of a stable democracy which is why Putin sees it as such a threat. She said that after dealing with Putin for 16 years "... it has become clear that we haven't effectively been able to put an end to the Cold War and there has always been the issue of Russia." She also explained why she was against Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO in the 2000s, and Ukraine again in 2014.
So there's a lot that has to happen before we can look at any possible outcomes after the shooting stops. At the moment anything is pure supposition without any real evidence to support claims. It's a case of wait and see at the moment.
