But it does seem to contradict the tale that she sank under tow in rough weather.
The caveat on this statement, I have no experience with the weather, how fast it can change, in this part of the world.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
The caveat on this statement, I have no experience with the weather, how fast it can change, in this part of the world.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #2,902
It's, in principle, possible this fire was eventually put out, an attempt was made to tow the ship, and rough weather caused it to sink. We don't know at what point in the story this photo occurred.
Big Slick
New Member
Thank you for the legal details regarding war crimes. I hope the investigative authorities are able to look into any alleged war crimes by either side on this conflict. I agree that it would be best for everyone for this war to end. Unfortunately I suspect my government would not agree with that sentiment.
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Part 1 of 3: Inchoate thoughts at day 53 of the 2022 war
1. At this stage, nothing is certain. We should take with a pinch of salt what certain sources have said — retired colonel general Ivashov and colonel Khodorenok made basically the same points : “Russia’s forces are in a bad state, Ukraine’s greatly improved, Russia will lose.”
2. Earlier, the Russian Army took Izyum, to serve as a transport hub to make it easier for the BTGs in the North East to link up with Russian forces in the Mariupol direction. The Russians continued small-scale attacks in the vicinities of Izyum, Popasna, and the area around Rubizhne and Severodonetsk—sometimes with artillery, sometimes with mechanized forces, without significant gains so far. This was supposed to be the start of an encirclement of Ukrainian Army in Donbas — to do that, we have to ask if the Russians have over stretched themselves over supply lines, such that they can’t defend these land routes. The terrain at Donbas is largely flat and wide open, unlike the more urban terrain near Kyiv. That’s ideal for Russian artillery and tanks, though rains have made much of the ground muddy.
3. As a counter, the Ukrainians are pushing east from Kharkiv which cuts the supply routes for Russian forces in Izyum. Others have said that there are credible reports of Ukrainian reinforcements. Reports of Russian losses seems to indicate that the war is still not going Russians way. The reason the Ukrainian Army has started this attack is probably because they have learned (from NATO intelligence) that Russia is concentrating what they have left of forces in the central Donbass region.
4. We should watch these battle of the supply routes as they develop. If there is anywhere in Ukraine that should have tons of artillery ammunition supplied to BTGs, it is at Izyum. At this time, we see 2 Ukrainian Army bulges attempting to pocket Izyum. If the Ukrainians succeed in pushing east from Kharkiv, this might become another Kyiv disaster for Putin.
5. Italian PM Mario Draghi spoke with Putin today and tried to tell him to end the war. After the call he said: "I'm starting to understand that those who say that talking to Russia’s leadership is a waste of time have a point".
1. At this stage, nothing is certain. We should take with a pinch of salt what certain sources have said — retired colonel general Ivashov and colonel Khodorenok made basically the same points : “Russia’s forces are in a bad state, Ukraine’s greatly improved, Russia will lose.”
2. Earlier, the Russian Army took Izyum, to serve as a transport hub to make it easier for the BTGs in the North East to link up with Russian forces in the Mariupol direction. The Russians continued small-scale attacks in the vicinities of Izyum, Popasna, and the area around Rubizhne and Severodonetsk—sometimes with artillery, sometimes with mechanized forces, without significant gains so far. This was supposed to be the start of an encirclement of Ukrainian Army in Donbas — to do that, we have to ask if the Russians have over stretched themselves over supply lines, such that they can’t defend these land routes. The terrain at Donbas is largely flat and wide open, unlike the more urban terrain near Kyiv. That’s ideal for Russian artillery and tanks, though rains have made much of the ground muddy.
3. As a counter, the Ukrainians are pushing east from Kharkiv which cuts the supply routes for Russian forces in Izyum. Others have said that there are credible reports of Ukrainian reinforcements. Reports of Russian losses seems to indicate that the war is still not going Russians way. The reason the Ukrainian Army has started this attack is probably because they have learned (from NATO intelligence) that Russia is concentrating what they have left of forces in the central Donbass region.
4. We should watch these battle of the supply routes as they develop. If there is anywhere in Ukraine that should have tons of artillery ammunition supplied to BTGs, it is at Izyum. At this time, we see 2 Ukrainian Army bulges attempting to pocket Izyum. If the Ukrainians succeed in pushing east from Kharkiv, this might become another Kyiv disaster for Putin.
5. Italian PM Mario Draghi spoke with Putin today and tried to tell him to end the war. After the call he said: "I'm starting to understand that those who say that talking to Russia’s leadership is a waste of time have a point".
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Rock the kasbah
Active Member
A free piece of advice for Putin
As Vladimir Putin embarks on his plan B — a massive military operation to try to grab at least a small bite of eastern Ukraine to justify his...
www.omanobserver.om
Thought I would post it here for your perusal
Backing up part of OPSSG's post, there may be a counteroffensive around Izyum
If this is a genuine counteroffensive and not just spoiling attacks it looks like Ukraine is tryin to encircle russian troops at Izyum
Trent Telenko is predicting that the russian army in the Izyum area is short on supplies too
Henry Schlottman has been tracking the locations of Russian units and he estimates there are 22 BTG's in the Izyum area, about 15,000 troops
This would be yet another disaster for Russia if they get cut off.
Edit: A bit more info from Izym area
Russian forces “gradually withdrawing” from captured Borivs'kyi district, local council says
The link in the tweet to CNN is the important part
If this is a genuine counteroffensive and not just spoiling attacks it looks like Ukraine is tryin to encircle russian troops at Izyum
Trent Telenko is predicting that the russian army in the Izyum area is short on supplies too
Henry Schlottman has been tracking the locations of Russian units and he estimates there are 22 BTG's in the Izyum area, about 15,000 troops
This would be yet another disaster for Russia if they get cut off.
Edit: A bit more info from Izym area
Russian forces “gradually withdrawing” from captured Borivs'kyi district, local council says
The link in the tweet to CNN is the important part
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The point about this war being the 21st Century's equivalent of the Spanish Civil War I think is spot on.I found this interesting readingA free piece of advice for Putin
As Vladimir Putin embarks on his plan B — a massive military operation to try to grab at least a small bite of eastern Ukraine to justify his...
Thought I would post it here for your perusal
All of the new technologies being tried out, exactly how Germany trialed it's emerging weapons and conops during that conflict.
Going to be some very interesting reviews going forward.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #2,908
Update.
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.
Russian security forces in Berdyansk.
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Pole taping in Odessa.
t.me
Russian security forces in Kherson region.
t.me
The Izyum Salient.
More footage of the same Su-24M, Ukrainian, downed near Izyum. Apparently a Russian MANPADS team did it using the new Verba.
t.me
It appears Russian forces have captured a Ukrainian T-80U. If this is accurate, this is a very rare catch. What makes me a tad suspicious is the color scheme. While it's hard to be sure, it looks somewhat similar to the Russian T-80U fleet. Granted, it's a Soviet-era pattern and both sides could have used it. I haven't seen any footage of Ukrainian T-80Us in service lately, so I'm not sure what they look like today. This incident was reportedly part of a Ukrainian counter-attack where they lost 1 tank destroyed, 1 knocked out, and 1 captured.
vk.com
t.me
Reservists from the rebel side have shown up in the Izyum salient. This marks their first major appearance outside their own regions. The 202nd and 204th LNR regiments are involved. The video is from Russian volunteers delivering cargo to the rebels. Note the lack of body armor and the haphazard uniforms. Some clearly got fancy new Russian camo, some are wearing whatever. Interestingly enough at 6:30 he points at a knocked out T-72 and cites it as evidence of Ukrainian troops hiding among civilian houses. However it's clearly a Russian T-72B3. Not only can you ever-so-slightly see the corner of the K-5 tile on the front of the turret, but you can also clearly see the wind sensor and the sight-box. At the 10 minute mark (it's a ~27 minute long video) they display a captured western weapon (they call it a shotgun, I'm not so sure). Overall, a lot of footage of rebel reservists, and battle damage. If you're wondering who these people are and what they're delivering, in Russia there are many patriotic, nationalist, and communist groups that gather donations and use them to purchase boots, gloves, tactical vests, flashlights, tools, batteries, quadcopters, night-vision devices, etc. for rebel units.
vk.com
LDNR Front.
Rebel town of Kharcyzk got hit by Ukrainian shelling.
The Lisichansk oil refiner continues to burn.
Ukrainian positions at Popasnaya, aerial footage.
Footage from the Russian/rebel side at Popasnaya. We can see the same destroyed T-72B from earlier, as well as a destroyed T-72B3, and a damaged BTR-82A. From the Russian/rebel side we see driving a round a T-80BV with the same new roof cage, a BMP-3, and a MT-LB. There's also plenty of footage of the battle damage to the town. Warning footage of corpses.
In my opinion there were two Russian units in play, one riding BTR-82As and supported by T-72B3s. The other is riding BMP-3s and supported by T-80BVs and is likely from the Pacific Fleet Marines, relocated from Kiev area.
vk.com
Russian repair unit appears to be operating in rebel areas, fixing their vehicles.
vk.com
vk.com
Newly drafted Ukrainian troops learning how to shoot near Kramatorsk.
t.me
Mariupol'.
Russian or rebel Grads firing on Azovstal'.
vk.com
Russian Marine SpN captured a T-64BV, holding what appeasr to be a crew member at gunpoint. It appears the tank got stuck. The tank was apparently booby-trapped with grenades.
vk.com
Russian and rebel forces near Azovstal'.
t.me
More footage from the Il'yich plant, more destroyed Ukrainian armored cars, trucks, and captured weapons.
vk.com
t.me
A bunch of captured and damaged Ukrainian vehicles in an industrial suburb of Mariupol'.
vk.com
Ukrainian positions on a hill near Mariupol'. They were allegedly smashed by 240mm mortars.
vk.com
Battle damage.
vk.com
t.me
t.me
Rebel forces in Azovstal'.
vk.com
Russian and rebel forces heading towards Azovstal'.
vk.com
Russian troops in and around Mariupol'. Note the VDV column. This is new, and I suspect these are units rebased from the north, likely heading through Mariupol' towards Zaporozhye region, from where they will be part of the south-eastern assault element.
vk.com
The West.
The Ivano-Frankovsk oil refinery got hit.
Misc.
Russian strike, location and context unclear.
t.me
A compilation of Russian UCAV strikes. Locations and context unclear.
vk.com
A Ukrainian UAV observing Russian troops. Note how he is able to find the extremely well concealed 2S3 positions, and catches the soldiers getting water.
vk.com
Ukrainian T-64BV destroyed, location and context unclear.
vk.com
An upgraded P-18 captured by Russia in Ukraine. Location and context unclear.
t.me
Russian logistics column, Ukraine. The first truck is a guntruck with a Zu-23-2, and at least one Mi-8/17, loaded with weapons and munitions, accompanies the column from above.
vk.com
Russian T-80BV with a mineclearing trawl in Ukraine. I suspect this is LDNR area based on the many minefields in contains and the paintjob of the tank being similar to the T-80BVs we saw near Severodonetsk.
vk.com
Russian National Guard in Ukraine.
Orenburg region, Russia, National Guard units returning from Ukraine, being cheered by locals.
vk.com
Assorted footage.
Alleged Dutch fighter in Ukraine, location and context unclear.
I want to take this opportunity to discuss the question of foreign fighters in Ukraine. Russian sources have, for a long time, been claiming that there are foreign mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. I've been posting the info as "foreign fightesr", without distinguishing whether they're mercs, PMCs, or foreign volunteers. With the recent interview from the Spanish sniper we seem to have confirmation of western PMCs operating in Ukraine, in large numbers. So 1st off, Russia seems to be labeling all foreign citizens fighting in Ukraine as "mercenaries" including those that are just enlisted in Ukraine's armed forces. This is clearly incorrect. 2nd off, someone might quickly point out "they're not mercs, they're PMCs". I'm not sure this is accurate. The line between mercenaries and PMCs is mostly about whether they're actually being used as combat elements or not (per the convention it's whether they're hired to fight in the conflict). So a western PMC acting as an instructor for Ukrainian forces is ok, but a western PMC acting as a front-line combat element would not be. I guess you could technically claim "they weren't hired to fight, they were hired to train but they ended up in a combat situation by happenstance". But this would only apply if it was a one-off scenario. If foreign PMCs are regularly involved in combat ops, in my opinion this would meet the definition. So... are there western mercenaries in Ukraine? Substantively speaking, my answer is yes.
Ukrainian technical with a M2 .50 cal.
And another video of Ukrainian forces with a BTR-60, and two technicals advancing. The giant flag makes me think this is a training exercise. Either way the equipment is indicative of what we should expect to see from the new infantry bde's formed in Ukraine.
NATO/EU.
Russian sources report a column of trucks without license plates entering Odessa, carrying western weapons or munitions.
vk.com
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.
Russian security forces in Berdyansk.
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Pole taping in Odessa.
Стальная Герань Z / видео СВО
В Одессе дедушка видимо с голоду хотел украсть кофе и колбасу. Но развязанные руки хохлонацисов не щадят даже пенсионеров.
t.me
Russian security forces in Kherson region.
ANNA NEWS
Сотрудники ФСВНГ "Росгвардия" в Херсонской области Сотрудники "Росгвардии" на бронеавтомобиле "Урал Федерал" в ходе выезда населённые пункты Херсонской области. @anna_news
t.me
The Izyum Salient.
More footage of the same Su-24M, Ukrainian, downed near Izyum. Apparently a Russian MANPADS team did it using the new Verba.
Оперативные сводки
⚡️ Умелыми действиями российского стрелка-зенитчика, 10 апреля на западной окраине н.п. Изюма с помощью ПЗРК «Верба» был сбит украинский Су-24М. Самолёт выполнял полет на малой высоте вдоль русла реки Северский Донец. 13 апреля обломки самолёта были обнаружены в районе н.п. Гочаровки. В кабине...
t.me
It appears Russian forces have captured a Ukrainian T-80U. If this is accurate, this is a very rare catch. What makes me a tad suspicious is the color scheme. While it's hard to be sure, it looks somewhat similar to the Russian T-80U fleet. Granted, it's a Soviet-era pattern and both sides could have used it. I haven't seen any footage of Ukrainian T-80Us in service lately, so I'm not sure what they look like today. This incident was reportedly part of a Ukrainian counter-attack where they lost 1 tank destroyed, 1 knocked out, and 1 captured.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
РаZвед_ДоZор
Под Изюмом несколько танков ВСУ (предположительно это была 93 омбр «Холодный Яр») попытались атаковать позиции российских войск, в результате чего: ▪️Один украинский танк денацифицирован и перешел на сторону ВС РФ; ▪️У второго, в результате точного попадания, сдетонировал БК и сорвало башню...
t.me
Reservists from the rebel side have shown up in the Izyum salient. This marks their first major appearance outside their own regions. The 202nd and 204th LNR regiments are involved. The video is from Russian volunteers delivering cargo to the rebels. Note the lack of body armor and the haphazard uniforms. Some clearly got fancy new Russian camo, some are wearing whatever. Interestingly enough at 6:30 he points at a knocked out T-72 and cites it as evidence of Ukrainian troops hiding among civilian houses. However it's clearly a Russian T-72B3. Not only can you ever-so-slightly see the corner of the K-5 tile on the front of the turret, but you can also clearly see the wind sensor and the sight-box. At the 10 minute mark (it's a ~27 minute long video) they display a captured western weapon (they call it a shotgun, I'm not so sure). Overall, a lot of footage of rebel reservists, and battle damage. If you're wondering who these people are and what they're delivering, in Russia there are many patriotic, nationalist, and communist groups that gather donations and use them to purchase boots, gloves, tactical vests, flashlights, tools, batteries, quadcopters, night-vision devices, etc. for rebel units.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
LDNR Front.
Rebel town of Kharcyzk got hit by Ukrainian shelling.
The Lisichansk oil refiner continues to burn.
Ukrainian positions at Popasnaya, aerial footage.
Footage from the Russian/rebel side at Popasnaya. We can see the same destroyed T-72B from earlier, as well as a destroyed T-72B3, and a damaged BTR-82A. From the Russian/rebel side we see driving a round a T-80BV with the same new roof cage, a BMP-3, and a MT-LB. There's also plenty of footage of the battle damage to the town. Warning footage of corpses.
In my opinion there were two Russian units in play, one riding BTR-82As and supported by T-72B3s. The other is riding BMP-3s and supported by T-80BVs and is likely from the Pacific Fleet Marines, relocated from Kiev area.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian repair unit appears to be operating in rebel areas, fixing their vehicles.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Newly drafted Ukrainian troops learning how to shoot near Kramatorsk.
Dambiev
Стрелковая подготовка жителей Краматорска, насильно мобилизованных в местный укробандеровский фольксштурм.
t.me
Mariupol'.
Russian or rebel Grads firing on Azovstal'.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian Marine SpN captured a T-64BV, holding what appeasr to be a crew member at gunpoint. It appears the tank got stuck. The tank was apparently booby-trapped with grenades.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian and rebel forces near Azovstal'.
Грамоты Ярослава
В ходе совместного российско-китайского военно-морского учения «Север/Взаимодействие - 2023» моряки двух стран уничтожили морскую плавающую мину и отразили атаку малоразмерной цели В акватории Японского моря продолжается двустороннее российско-китайское военно-морское учение...
t.me
More footage from the Il'yich plant, more destroyed Ukrainian armored cars, trucks, and captured weapons.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
⚔️ СВАРЩИКИ
Фотографии с территории Мариупольского металлургического комбината имени Ильича, занятого подразделениями ВС РФ и ДНР.
t.me
A bunch of captured and damaged Ukrainian vehicles in an industrial suburb of Mariupol'.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian positions on a hill near Mariupol'. They were allegedly smashed by 240mm mortars.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Battle damage.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ ФАН
Мариуполь. Проспект Ильича, по дороге к проходной завода «Азовмаш». Фото: Александр Симонов Mariupol, Illich prospect, on the way to Azovmash. Courtesy IFAN. #Донбасс #Мариуполь #репортаж #Россия #Украина @riafan_everywhere
t.me
ANNA NEWS
Республиканские военные на заводе "Азовмаш" и проспекте Ильича в Мариуполе. @anna_news
t.me
Rebel forces in Azovstal'.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian and rebel forces heading towards Azovstal'.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian troops in and around Mariupol'. Note the VDV column. This is new, and I suspect these are units rebased from the north, likely heading through Mariupol' towards Zaporozhye region, from where they will be part of the south-eastern assault element.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
The West.
The Ivano-Frankovsk oil refinery got hit.
Misc.
Russian strike, location and context unclear.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️Кадры удара: Армия России уничтожает объекты ВСУ высокоточным оружием t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
A compilation of Russian UCAV strikes. Locations and context unclear.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A Ukrainian UAV observing Russian troops. Note how he is able to find the extremely well concealed 2S3 positions, and catches the soldiers getting water.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian T-64BV destroyed, location and context unclear.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
An upgraded P-18 captured by Russia in Ukraine. Location and context unclear.
Dambiev
Захваченная Росгвардией украинская модернизированная РЛС П-18 «Малахит» разработки ГК "Укрспецтехника".
t.me
Russian logistics column, Ukraine. The first truck is a guntruck with a Zu-23-2, and at least one Mi-8/17, loaded with weapons and munitions, accompanies the column from above.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian T-80BV with a mineclearing trawl in Ukraine. I suspect this is LDNR area based on the many minefields in contains and the paintjob of the tank being similar to the T-80BVs we saw near Severodonetsk.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian National Guard in Ukraine.
Orenburg region, Russia, National Guard units returning from Ukraine, being cheered by locals.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Assorted footage.
Alleged Dutch fighter in Ukraine, location and context unclear.
I want to take this opportunity to discuss the question of foreign fighters in Ukraine. Russian sources have, for a long time, been claiming that there are foreign mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. I've been posting the info as "foreign fightesr", without distinguishing whether they're mercs, PMCs, or foreign volunteers. With the recent interview from the Spanish sniper we seem to have confirmation of western PMCs operating in Ukraine, in large numbers. So 1st off, Russia seems to be labeling all foreign citizens fighting in Ukraine as "mercenaries" including those that are just enlisted in Ukraine's armed forces. This is clearly incorrect. 2nd off, someone might quickly point out "they're not mercs, they're PMCs". I'm not sure this is accurate. The line between mercenaries and PMCs is mostly about whether they're actually being used as combat elements or not (per the convention it's whether they're hired to fight in the conflict). So a western PMC acting as an instructor for Ukrainian forces is ok, but a western PMC acting as a front-line combat element would not be. I guess you could technically claim "they weren't hired to fight, they were hired to train but they ended up in a combat situation by happenstance". But this would only apply if it was a one-off scenario. If foreign PMCs are regularly involved in combat ops, in my opinion this would meet the definition. So... are there western mercenaries in Ukraine? Substantively speaking, my answer is yes.
Ukrainian technical with a M2 .50 cal.
Быстро.
Пикап тербата . Пикап с 12.7мм М2. За 2 месяца ВСУ с танков и БТР скатились до пикапов как у ИГИЛ. Экс-Украина, 2022.
shusharmor.livejournal.com
And another video of Ukrainian forces with a BTR-60, and two technicals advancing. The giant flag makes me think this is a training exercise. Either way the equipment is indicative of what we should expect to see from the new infantry bde's formed in Ukraine.
NATO/EU.
Russian sources report a column of trucks without license plates entering Odessa, carrying western weapons or munitions.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Another thread on the Izyum counterattack by Dr Mike Martin, Kings College
"If you remember from a few days ago (or a week? I can’t remember) the Russians took Izyum. This was import - it is a transport hub which makes it easier for the Russians in the NE to link up to this in the Mariupol direction. The start of an encirclement of Ukr forces in Donbas But it appears that the Russians have over stretched themselves over supply lines that they can’t defend. And so the Ukrainians are merrily cutting those supply lines "
"We’ve seen this before in the battle for Kyiv. Russians push too far on unrealistic political goals and get their log tails cut. They’ve learnt nothing. "
"Which takes me back to my original prediction: the russian armed forces will be defeated in Ukraine and Putin will be removed from power. "
I think he's pretty optimistic but then I thought Kyiv would fall in a matter of 2-3 weeks. If the UA succeeds here and encircles approx 22 BTG's, it jeopardizes most if not all of Eastern Ukraine for the russians.
One last quote for the thread:
"I swear the Ukrainians are proper sick at strategy. I want them on my side in any future wars."
It is a remarkable accomplishment for Ukraine to completely transform their military since 2014. 8 years from having a very marginal army to kicking around an army from a country with 3 times it's population and almost 10 times it's GDP. Imagine the situation if the west had spent the last 8 years giving them modern western equipment to fight with.
"If you remember from a few days ago (or a week? I can’t remember) the Russians took Izyum. This was import - it is a transport hub which makes it easier for the Russians in the NE to link up to this in the Mariupol direction. The start of an encirclement of Ukr forces in Donbas But it appears that the Russians have over stretched themselves over supply lines that they can’t defend. And so the Ukrainians are merrily cutting those supply lines "
"We’ve seen this before in the battle for Kyiv. Russians push too far on unrealistic political goals and get their log tails cut. They’ve learnt nothing. "
"Which takes me back to my original prediction: the russian armed forces will be defeated in Ukraine and Putin will be removed from power. "
I think he's pretty optimistic but then I thought Kyiv would fall in a matter of 2-3 weeks. If the UA succeeds here and encircles approx 22 BTG's, it jeopardizes most if not all of Eastern Ukraine for the russians.
One last quote for the thread:
"I swear the Ukrainians are proper sick at strategy. I want them on my side in any future wars."
It is a remarkable accomplishment for Ukraine to completely transform their military since 2014. 8 years from having a very marginal army to kicking around an army from a country with 3 times it's population and almost 10 times it's GDP. Imagine the situation if the west had spent the last 8 years giving them modern western equipment to fight with.
Part 2 of 3: Inchoate thoughts at day 53 of the 2022 war
7. I just can’t tell at this time, as it could be a trap. I don’t want to speculate, as my sourcing and analysis skill is much poorer than Dr Mike Martin. If the plan works, the Russian BTGs there at Izyum will attempt a breakout to avoid being cut off.
8. Ukrainians, not outsiders, must decide what path to take to peace. The 1st option, a stalemate in Donbas; or a 2nd option, the defeat of one party in Donbas. On the 2nd option — I will only say, nothing ventured, nothing gained. Ukrainians are taking on execution risk by trying for the 2nd option. I don’t blame them, given the scale of the American and British logistics push to them. Slava Ukraini
6. Agreed. Dr Mike Martin is an optimist — in 2 to 3 weeks, the tactical picture around at Izyum will become clear, if the Ukrainian Army assumption of risk for a pay-off will work. IMO, Trent Telenko’s posts are not really based on proper analysis; it’s too one sided from a data point or two. On the other hand, being properly Sandhurst trained, Dr Mike Martin tends to think more deeply and he is seldom wrong.
7. I just can’t tell at this time, as it could be a trap. I don’t want to speculate, as my sourcing and analysis skill is much poorer than Dr Mike Martin. If the plan works, the Russian BTGs there at Izyum will attempt a breakout to avoid being cut off.
8. Ukrainians, not outsiders, must decide what path to take to peace. The 1st option, a stalemate in Donbas; or a 2nd option, the defeat of one party in Donbas. On the 2nd option — I will only say, nothing ventured, nothing gained. Ukrainians are taking on execution risk by trying for the 2nd option. I don’t blame them, given the scale of the American and British logistics push to them. Slava Ukraini
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It is always one of those risks in deep strike warfare, getting your self so deep you get your self encircled.
Can Ukraine achieve their perceived aim? Maybe but will depend on both their own logistics tail, forces employed and the Russian response.
The claimed lack of Russian fires response on the ground leads me to believe stopping these thrusts will fall into the RuAF which hasn't had any real deployment in this conflict. Russian command may be stuck in the position trying to hold that territory and risking a large chunk of their forces or a full scale retreat to safer positions which would preserve the forces but wipe out the immediate chances of encircling the Donbass forces of Ukraine not to count the PR nightmare for Russia (Russian army in retreat) or the PR win for Ukranian (Ukrainian soldiers send Russia running).
My 2 cents this is probably the best move Ukraine could do with their assets available.
Can Ukraine achieve their perceived aim? Maybe but will depend on both their own logistics tail, forces employed and the Russian response.
The claimed lack of Russian fires response on the ground leads me to believe stopping these thrusts will fall into the RuAF which hasn't had any real deployment in this conflict. Russian command may be stuck in the position trying to hold that territory and risking a large chunk of their forces or a full scale retreat to safer positions which would preserve the forces but wipe out the immediate chances of encircling the Donbass forces of Ukraine not to count the PR nightmare for Russia (Russian army in retreat) or the PR win for Ukranian (Ukrainian soldiers send Russia running).
My 2 cents this is probably the best move Ukraine could do with their assets available.
Rock the kasbah
Active Member
I reckon I'm the learningest person here
But I can't hear a Ukrainian General saying
We're proper sick at this
The Russian empires long before the USSR had the same problem of corruption.
From a lecture by Martti J. Kari, a former Finnish intelligence colonel currently teaching cybersecurity at the University of Jyväskylä:
Tiedustelueverstin arvio Venäjästä | 3.12.2018 - YouTube
I recommend viewing the whole lecture -- quite interesting if you want to understand the "Russian Mindset".
Text of the lecture: Finnish Intelligence Officer Explains the Russian Mindset – Ricochet
Exonian
Member
So far Ukraine seems to have mostly fought the ground war pretty smartly, avoiding major defeats or encirclements. However the stakes are high, and I fear they must at some point make a gamble to inflict a major defeat on the Russian forces.
By fighting over an area only recently captured which the Russian forces have probably not had time to completely subdue Ukraine will be assisted by intelligence from the local population. There may well be Ukranian infiltrations, and perhaps small fighting units who had remained behind Russian lines to help disrupt the Russian forces in the area.
I hope it goes well.
I tried to read the Russian strategy in Donbass by the moves done so far and I think they are going for a strategy of small encirclements with double or triple anchors on the flanks of those smaller encirclements. Izyum looks like it could be a staging area for launching a big envelopment move from but in fact that's just a build-up defensive area meant to divert attention and resources from a smaller encirclement further South-East in the area of Severodonetsk. There are two critical points there: Popasna and Rubiznoie which if they fall will seal the fate of Severodonetsk. My guess is the Russians will bring lots of indirect fire in order to break the two critical points mentioned above (in fact both are heavily contested at the moment). After isolating Severodonetsk they will move West towards Bahmut which is another important node in the area essential for various other small encirclements. Meanwhile the group in Izyum will not move too much since it is pretty obvious the UAF will attempt to counter from the general direction of Kharkov - Chuguev so in my view that group is just a flank guarding group that can be activated later for offensive purpose depending on how the general situation evolves.
In general I think the Russians in Donbass will prefer fighting this type of small encirclements against fixed Ukrainian positions because this plays to their advantages, superior artillery and air and they know where the enemy is even if he is entrenched knowing his position is preferable than sending troops down roads in wide moves throughout the countryside. So I think Russia will act very slowly and carefuly on the wide flanks, trying to bait the Ukrainians into counterattacking while they will play their superiority in indirect fire in the entrenched areas going for small encirclements and slow gains. this strategy in my view makes the most sense for them, the cost is the slowness, the gain is limiting risks and losses and making use of their advantages to the maximum.
In general I think the Russians in Donbass will prefer fighting this type of small encirclements against fixed Ukrainian positions because this plays to their advantages, superior artillery and air and they know where the enemy is even if he is entrenched knowing his position is preferable than sending troops down roads in wide moves throughout the countryside. So I think Russia will act very slowly and carefuly on the wide flanks, trying to bait the Ukrainians into counterattacking while they will play their superiority in indirect fire in the entrenched areas going for small encirclements and slow gains. this strategy in my view makes the most sense for them, the cost is the slowness, the gain is limiting risks and losses and making use of their advantages to the maximum.
When will we be able to assess the true combat impact of Russian missile strikes. All those Khalibres, Iskanders, P-800s they have launched. I am sure NATO will analyze the impact in details, but will it ever be released to a regular joe like me? I hope so.
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5 warning points awarded for posting direct propaganda
Post and link deleted.
Do not post pure packaged propaganda pieces from the Russian Army, DNR and/or LNR forces — without a clear disclaimer on the actions of the aggressor. It is difficult to tell if the interview is extracted under duress (eg. threatening to execute another person, if the commander who surrendered does not say what they want), or it is given on his own free will.
39 states have referred the Ukraine situation to the ICC for investigation. Given the war crimes investigations initiated by the prosecutor is ongoing for Russian actions (and the Red Cross does not have access to these prisoners, yet), we need to pause before posting ‘hit’ pieces like this.
Apply common sense to your posts, please.
OPSSG
Do not post pure packaged propaganda pieces from the Russian Army, DNR and/or LNR forces — without a clear disclaimer on the actions of the aggressor. It is difficult to tell if the interview is extracted under duress (eg. threatening to execute another person, if the commander who surrendered does not say what they want), or it is given on his own free will.
39 states have referred the Ukraine situation to the ICC for investigation. Given the war crimes investigations initiated by the prosecutor is ongoing for Russian actions (and the Red Cross does not have access to these prisoners, yet), we need to pause before posting ‘hit’ pieces like this.
Apply common sense to your posts, please.
OPSSG
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Putin wants a victory before May 9th. Potentially disastrous trying to run a military campaign like that. I am anticipating massive Russian screwups as they once again rush in with little to no logistic support.
The Ukrainians have proven very effective on the battlefield so far. Not to disparage their efforts but they are fighting like a much more experienced force than they are. I expect they are getting lots of intelligence and tactical advice from NATO.
I would be careful to write off the Russians based on their past failures and apparent Ukrainian successes. They are not incapable of learning from their mistakes. The Ukrainians do not have numerical advantage on the field there and are reliant on their ability to maneuver and react faster than the Russians as well as perceived Russian shortages, and morale.
It is a reasonable risk to take given that a victory here will alter the Donbass theater but it is still dicey.
I would think they want more favourable results rather than a victory per see. As for logistics; they are concentrating in the east and will have one major point of main effort/scwerpunkt as opposed to the past when they also had to support a major drive on Kiev; as such logistics should be somewhat easier than before. Other points to note is that on paper at least they should be learning from past mistakes and will attempt to rectify past mistakes and that unlike in the past the political leadership is no longer any illusions about the ability and willingness of the Ukrainians to fight.
Very true. The Russians [and the Soviets before] have a long made it a practice to analyse and study things extensively and thoroughly on a intellectual academic basis. Whether or not information or lessons learnt is passed down to units in the field in time is the question.