NZDF General discussion thread

[Redlands18]

I think the noises that Act and National are making will get some good encouragement for our Partners overseas, i would not be surprised if this results in increased encouragement to the current govt as well. The reality is that it is affordable, other countries have similar issues and are prioritising defence spending, Aus and Germany.
As other people have said, this is the first time since WW2 that offensive capabilities will be in striking distance of the homeland and we have never been so limited in capabilities to respond.
Our Pacific family will expect us to be able to provide protection for them or we will lose significant influence, i do not believe that this would be acceptable to our govt. It would essentially be accepting China as the major power in our region and deciding the rules of the game. We either stand up now or never, there is no kicking this can down the road.
The impact of what we d0 will also decide what happens in Antarctica.

And its time to realise that road is leading towards a cul de sac and you are fast running out of road to kick that can down.

 

[Redlands18]

Deleted. double post

 

[Boardgamer88]

So maybe it starting to dawn on the NZGovt that we're currently a small fish in a increasing hostile shark pool...

What? a guy can hope.

'We agreed to step up': NATO promises to help NZ amid China threat

"We have seen that China is unwilling to condemn Russia's aggression."

www.newshub.co.nz

The NATO military alliance of 30 countries across Europe and North America has agreed to "step up" and help New Zealand and Australia combat "China's growing influence".

Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg criticised China for its reluctance to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine following a meeting with Nato foreign secretaries and their Asia-Pacific partners.

 

[Redlands18]

So maybe it starting to dawn on the NZGovt that we're currently a small fish in a increasing hostile shark pool...

What? a guy can hope.

'We agreed to step up': NATO promises to help NZ amid China threat

"We have seen that China is unwilling to condemn Russia's aggression."

www.newshub.co.nz

The Foreign Ministers of New Zealand, Australia, ROK and Japan also attended that meeting.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

I would hope this doesn't get seen by pollies here to think everyone else is going to carry the weight on Nz behalf so therefore continue to do only a token effort.

 

[Gracie1234]

I would hope this doesn't get seen by pollies here to think everyone else is going to carry the weight on NZ behalf so, therefore, continue to do only a token effort.

This is a good point, but i am sure the 2% GDP benchmark will be raised as a fair contribution to the wider effort.

 

[RubiconNZ]

While I’m reluctant to go down a wish list thread, it’s how ideas are formed and refined. Say we see a change in heart by government (or the next) and see a real increase (let’s aim for 2% by 2028.) What are some real and tangible deliverables for the NZDF in this time frame. This would be as if the government of the day took the changing security environment as a serious threat however still gradually increased spending.

First of all defence needs dollar for recruitment, fully fund maintenance budgets that have been slashed due to Covid and under investment. Pay and conditions for service personnel. NZDF facilities need the kind of scaled investment that Australia has put in. I’ve visited Trentham, Linton & Devonport on multiple occasions over the last couple of years and there are lot of facilities that aren’t a pretty sight to say the least. The Army Reserves need a huge amount of investment to even meet their current strengths.

in terms of purchasing taking items included from the DCP with “tweaks”

Joint: Satellite Surveillance

Airforce:
2 additional P8’s
+ new Missiles and Torpedos for the Poseidon Fleet
1 additional C130J (bring the airforce main fleet to rule of three)
757s replacement with 2 KC30‘s (attempt to form a pool with the ADF similar to the NATO C17 pool as a regional multiplier)
4-6 additional NH90’s
Maritime Patrol grade UAV in suitable numbers (size and capability dependant.)

Army:
Investment in Artillery and Fire Support from mortar to L119 replacement
Additional Javelins
Complete the transport upgrades with more garrison trucks, engineering and plant machinery, Bushmasters and Hawkei or equivalent to get rid of all the Pinzgauers.
Reinstate an Anti-Air capability. SHORAD as initial capability.

Navy
Bring forward a Canterbury replacement design process either JSS or LPD style vessel..
NSM’s for the frigates.
Seasprite replaced with Seahawk Romeos. 8-10.
Commission a hospital HADR ship along the lines of the Austal design. (A regional force multiplier and niche capability not in existence in the South Pacific.)


From 2028:
Increase the end strength of army by increasing infantry battalions to 4 companies.
Establish a stand alone high readiness Ranger Company within Infantry
Add Squadron of IFV or Scorpionesque capability 15 odd.
Establish

Return to a 3-4 Frigate Fleet with ANZAC replacement
Manawanui replacement with similar capability ship or 2.
OPV’s replaced with Southern Ocean style vessels.

Restablish a ACF (potentially unmanned.)

I focused on deliverables and for the first 5 years palatable options for New Zealand public Opinion, I look forward to reading the critique and feedback.

 

[John Fedup]

I will let others comment on the wish list but I doubt any NZ government will commit to 2%GDP. Even with more defence obligations Canada will only be at 1.5% by 2027-28 (unlikely if Liberals were to get back to majority in 2026). As we have similar electorates and pollies 1.5% is likely the best you can hope for short of WW3.

 

[recce.k1]

While I’m reluctant to go down a wish list thread, it’s how ideas are formed and refined. Say we see a change in heart by government (or the next) and see a real increase (let’s aim for 2% by 2028.) What are some real and tangible deliverables for the NZDF in this time frame. This would be as if the government of the day took the changing security environment as a serious threat however still gradually increased spending.
***********
I focused on deliverables and for the first 5 years palatable options for New Zealand public Opinion, I look forward to reading the critique and feedback.

Well I think everything you mention are very sensible and practical options! Strengthening the intelligence agencies and countering cyber threats is another area that could be boosted pronto eg personnel and investment etc. If NZ's primary area of concern is the Pacific, do we also need to provide support in these areas to safeguard the interests and functionality of their govt agencies, industry and commerce, energy and water infrastructure systems (etc) of our nearest neighbors? How can we utilise the "locals" to assist and safeguard their own systems and infrastructure (especially if isolated/cut-off until international data networks are restored)? Do we need mutual assistance programmes and specialist/technical training schemes etc? NZ personnel teams based in some of the islands? How do we (and "they") safeguard underseas data cables and satellite ground stations etc (i.e. areas that could be physically sabotaged or targeted cyber-wise)? Presumably our agencies assess such things for NZG (and presumably will need coordinating with our other Five Eye partners particularly Australia and the US)? These could also be good "soft power" type initiatives that help strengthen the collective security and "political orbit" of these Pacific nations.

For Defence though and the next 5 years, growing personnel and infrastructure will be vital (which helpfully aligns with the NZG's plans anyway eg "People, Infrastructure, Pacific .... so they can't shrink this one haha, they will need to expand this)!

For example if the RNZAF requires additional aircraft/numbers, they will need to train more pilots (and ground support crews), so will require more training aircraft (is NZDF prioritising additional T-6 Texans? How long to obtain them off the production lines? Apparently they barely have enough to cover existing training needs especially if aircraft go u/s. Numbers wise could we be needing to roughly double the fleet eg 9 to 18 etc)?

The King Air KA350 multi-engine trainers (and the air warfare training variants) are leased so presumably could be acquired relatively quickly from commercial sources if additional a/c are required (but may require time to be fitted out esp. the air warfare variants).

But with the advent of additional jet aircraft in the fleet i.e. P-8 Poseidon, could RNZAF justify advanced jet trainers (commercial LearJet/Falcon etc ... or military Aermacchi M-346/KAI T-50/BAe Hawk/Boeing-Saab T-7A types etc) .... with the added advantage of now having an initial LIFT capability? Should of course an ACF be established later, as that skillset is re-generated (perhaps with second-hand F-16's/FA-18's initially, during the "walking" stage), then could this be a prudent move?

Also for the next 5 years, additional C-130J-30's would have to be a must have, and ideally not just 1 but at least another 4 or 5 to bring the fleet up to 8-9 (rule of 3's again). They are relatively inexpensive to procure (~US$1b for those numbers). There will be much to move trans-Tasman, Pacific, Asia and further afield wise (and Antarctica). If we look back at the air transport needs in WW2 even for the Pacific theatre the RNZAF required dozens of transport aircraft. (Perhaps if the US's Lend-Lease programme could extend (from Ukraine) to down under, it could be an opportunity to acquire further a/c)? After all even the RAAF are looking to potentially acquire additional C-130J-30's, so if RNZAF obtained a few more then that could allow for a reasonable, interoprerable "ANZAC" fleet!

One or two more P-8 Poseidons are another easy "must have", and for the NZG it would (in their eyes) send a "strong" signal to our allies of our "commitments" (!).

(I personally think another 4-5 Poseidons would send a strong signal and help better support our areas of operations ... but I know that is "fantasy fleet" stuff ..... although it shouldn't be, according to a US DoD report NZ acquired its four P-8A's for approx US$1b (approx <$NZ1.5b), so another four-five P-8A's would cost about $NZ1.5-2b ... as the original NZ Poseidon acquisition project ($NZ2.4b) also included costs for the initial training in the US, horizontal works at Ohakea, the double hanger and offices, warehouse and parts store, Tactical Operations Centre (TOC), Mobile Tactical Operations Centre (MTOC), Training and Simulator Building, Aircraft Ground Support Building. For the UK's P-8A's at RAF Lossiemouth, they have a triple bay hanger for their nine P-8A's, so Ohakea may be able to make do with its double hanger but perhaps another hanger or extension, and additional workshops and offices may be required to support more efficient operations? Yes, more pilots, crew, ground and support crew (and the means to house them) will be required adding to the Operational budget costs, so I guess the questions are, what are the other priorities, and not only RNZAF but the wider NZDF i.e. Army and Navy, and what is the Govt prepared to spend ... if anything)?

 

[recce.k1]

I will let others comment on the wish list but I doubt any NZ government will commit to 2%GDP. Even with more defence obligations Canada will only be at 1.5% by 2027-28 (unlikely if Liberals were to get back to majority in 2026). As we have similar electorates and pollies 1.5% is likely the best you can hope for short of WW3.

John, it was reported that an additional .5% GDP increase (to 2% GDP) would be/give $NZ1.7b (<$US1b) to defence ... which is not "a lot" of money really at the end of the day (why it just happens to be the cost of a new cycle bridge over Auckland harbour, something the NZG keeps trying to push, for all 50 cyclists that would risk the winds and rain trying to pedal over it)! Sorry I'm not familiar with Canadian expenditure (and as it's 1.30am here now I won't look it up, as it's time for one of NZ's favorite bedtime affairs ... why that of counting sheep leaping over fences of course!) so out of interest what sort of Canadian $$ figures are we talking about for junior to increase the CDF budgets to 2% GDP or higher etc?

 

[swerve]

But that's NZD1.7 billion every year & tending to increase, not a one off.

 

[John Fedup]

John, it was reported that an additional .5% GDP increase (to 2% GDP) would be/give $NZ1.7b (<$US1b) to defence ... which is not "a lot" of money really at the end of the day (why it just happens to be the cost of a new cycle bridge over Auckland harbour, something the NZG keeps trying to push, for all 50 cyclists that would risk the winds and rain trying to pedal over it)! Sorry I'm not familiar with Canadian expenditure (and as it's 1.30am here now I won't look it up, as it's time for one of NZ's favorite bedtime affairs ... why that of counting sheep leaping over fences of course!) so out of interest what sort of Canadian $$ figures are we talking about for junior to increase the CDF budgets to 2% GDP or higher etc?

The government claims DND costs were ~24 billion last year and various sources quote this is 1.36-1.39% GDP. The number for 2027 is estimated to be $33 billion which gets us to 1.5% GDP (supposedly). GDP and pollies are moving targets so WTF knows what 2027 will look like. One thing is certain, defence investment made a few years ago will get more bang compared to the investments coming as inflation eats away at actual buying power.

 

[Gracie1234]

What effect or outputs do people believe will occur with the support of Nato against China in our Area. I understand the Cyber aspects but not the rest as well. Interested to hear others' views. To me, it appears very significant and i presume this would of already been scoped up and NZ must of agreed to its part.

 

[recce.k1]

There was an interview on Friday with Tim Groser, former trade minister and ambassador to Washington. He offered some thoughts on the situation in Europe and the Solomons (and hasn't written off China playing a constructive role with diplomatic efforts i.e. Russia and Ukraine). He offered some thoughts on NATO in the Pacific (which won't be a security alliance).

"NATO has agreed to step up efforts to help Australia and New Zealand combat China's growing influence.

It came after Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta attended a virtual NATO meeting last night to discuss Russia's invasion into Ukraine.

Tensions are rising in the Pacific after the Solomon Islands negotiated a security deal with China.

Former ambassador to the United States Tim Groser told Andrew Dickens the events of the past few weeks have transformed the entire global security situation.

“Security is going to the top of the political agenda. New thinking will be required, including in New Zealand, so we should keep an open mind.”"

NATO agrees to step up efforts to help combat China's growing influence

NATO has agreed to step up efforts to help Australia and New Zealand combat China's growing influence. It came after Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta attende

www.newstalkzb.co.nz

Transcript (minus the preamble):

Interviewer: So, good evening good, so this is this is fascinating and what I really want to know is how did NATO get involved in South Pacific … situations, would we have asked them, will you come to our help if we end up in a situation with China or was NATO already worried about the growth in China and it's ambivalence towards Russia's aggression.

Groser: Let's just take a step back and look at the bigger picture here, there are no other no other person than Lenin himself said a hundred years ago.

There are decades, where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen, and the last six weeks are exactly what Lenin had in mind.

So what has happened in the last few weeks has transformed the entire global security situation and new thinking is going to need to be required.

We just look at what has happened, first of all, Germany, Germany has cast aside 70 years of pacifism and has made a commitment now to rearm, Germany will go back to its Prussian military roots and become a massive military power over the next 10 years.

Japan, Abe, the former distinguished Prime Minister has put aside Hiroshima Nagasaki and suggested that Japan station nuclear weapons on its own sovereign territory and end ... encourage the Americans to end the strategic doctrine of strategic ambiguity, with respect to Taiwan, these are revolutionary shifts.

So, of course, this washes on to the shores of Australia and New Zealand, I am I mean this is unprecedented, so we need to think outside the square I think the government's done the right thing by responding in a very low key way to NATO at the moment in terms of giving I think $5 million of non lethal assistance to the defense of Ukraine and the Foreign Minister participating in a virtual meeting of NATO.

We need to work lockstep with the Australians on this because the security of our two countries is indivisible.

But basically, what I'd say is that the peace dividend that we lived in a few terrible regional wars aside for the last 70 years that's gone.

Security is going to the top of the political agenda, new thinking will be required, including in New Zealand, so we should keep an open mind so that's the framework.

Now with respect to the Solomons think the Australian New Zealand governments are doing exactly the right thing by maintaining a very intense dialogue with the government there.

But I also think it's very important to keep close to the Chinese, I am not ready to jettison the idea that China can be as constructive partner, I think their position on the Ukraine that Stoltenberg criticized is evolving in a better direction and I wouldn't even discount the possibility that countries like us could end up actually pleased that the Chinese maintained a little bit of space and did not join the Western chorus initially on Ukraine, because if there is to be negotiated peace it'll need to be enforced.

And China might well be in a place to do that so I'm not predicting this as a benign response I'm just saying this is unprecedented, we need to keep our options open, we need to explore ...

Interviewer: Tim this is obviously a very complex subjects we could talk for hours about this I want to ask you one question though all of a sudden, NATO is now involved with Pacific Ocean affairs South China seas Affairs because they've said they're going to come and support, Australia and New Zealand suddenly China sees NATO actually being involved in the whole thing. Could there be some retaliation from China towards Australia and New Zealand for getting NATO involved.

Groser: Well there's already retaliation against Australia right across the economic front, going on with barley wheat and a whole series of other actions to do with Australia’s obviously tougher political response over the past year, so that's not a new development look I don't think we should jump to conclusions here we're not being asked to join NATO

NATO is not coming to the defence of the Solomons or Australia, New Zealand, what is doing is saying let's realize that we have a values driven agenda here we're all on the same page, as you Australia and NZ are, and I think that's 100% correct.

So we are not about to join a military Alliance in the Pacific to do with NATO, but there may well be sensible things that we can do politically with them

Pity the interview ended abruptly without Groser being able to outline some areas of co-operation, but no doubt there will be other analysis to follow.

 

[Gooey]

Thanks Recce. V interesting!

Thinking outside the square, and China maybe part of the solution in the Ukraine. Mmmm. Fine words about lock step with Australia, and Security being top of the political agenda now, but … nothing from Wellington seems to indicate this is the case. In fact the opposite with the current state of denial about supplying some of our few weapons to Ukraine and the collapse of our UN centric foreign policy.

I love the fact that Groser now understands that the world is a dangerous place but this is exactly what the ‘geriatric generals’ said in the 80s. And which anyone who studies history understands. I’m sure he is a lovely guy but Groser is one of the many Kiwi professionals who enabled the warped policy of (my words) pacifism is our policy because we are too clever to get sucked into WAR and we just want to trade with CCP.

And aside from the wise, chin stroking, words he says now, he seems to have no urgency, or recognition that we have next to zero combat power or, most importantly, that CCP is ten times the threat of Russia.

My 10 cents worth!

 

[Gracie1234]

Very interesting view from Groser. I do wonder if our govt just is lost as this is so far away from their comfort area. How can they tell NZ that what we have been told for the past 30 yrs, the world is safe, and we are just interested in humanitarian aid is not true and never was? We are now left with a run-down military with few capabilities or the mass needed as we have chosen to not invest in them or support the people.
I saw a media clip where one of the reporters was saying they were just not comfortable with NZ sending lethal aid, it just did not feel right to them. I was thinking to myself, this is a situation where words did not work and more is needed.

 

[ngatimozart]

Very interesting view from Groser. I do wonder if our govt just is lost as this is so far away from their comfort area. How can they tell NZ that what we have been told for the past 30 yrs, the world is safe, and we are just interested in humanitarian aid is not true and never was? We are now left with a run-down military with few capabilities or the mass needed as we have chosen to not invest in them or support the people.
I saw a media clip where one of the reporters was saying they were just not comfortable with NZ sending lethal aid, it just did not feel right to them. I was thinking to myself, this is a situation where words did not work and more is needed.

Maybe that reporter should take a walk through the streets of Buca and other towns in Ukraine that the Russians occupied and left behind murdered men, women, and children. Or maybe the train station where the deliberately targeted Tocha rocket with the cluster bomb warhead killed and wounded civilians, including children trying to flee to safety. It had "For the Children" written on it in Russian. Let them look the survivors in the eye and explain to the survivors why they are uncomfortable about NZ sending lethal aid to Ukraine. I would be quite happy to send them some the videos taken. There are plenty of such around. Methinks that they need a real does of reality.

 

[Redlands18]

Maybe that reporter should take a walk through the streets of Buca and other towns in Ukraine that the Russians occupied and left behind murdered men, women, and children. Or maybe the train station where the deliberately targeted Tocha rocket with the cluster bomb warhead killed and wounded civilians, including children trying to flee to safety. It had "For the Children" written on it in Russian. Let them look the survivors in the eye and explain to the survivors why they are uncomfortable about NZ sending lethal aid to Ukraine. I would be quite happy to send them some the videos taken. There are plenty of such around. Methinks that they need a real does of reality.

We all just need to sit around the Campfire and sing Kumbaya then the Russians will be so moved they will leave Ukraine and lay down all there weapons

 

[recce.k1]

We all just need to sit around the Campfire and sing Kumbaya then the Russians will be so moved they will leave Ukraine and lay down all there weapons

Although you jest, you probably accurately summed up our govt's secret war plans??!!!

 

[Redlands18]

Although you jest, you probably accurately summed up our govt's recent security dialogue with the Green membership??!!!

Don't you need to be able to sing Kumbaya flawlessly to be able to join the Greens