While I’m reluctant to go down a wish list thread, it’s how ideas are formed and refined. Say we see a change in heart by government (or the next) and see a real increase (let’s aim for 2% by 2028.) What are some real and tangible deliverables for the NZDF in this time frame. This would be as if the government of the day took the changing security environment as a serious threat however still gradually increased spending.
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I focused on deliverables and for the first 5 years palatable options for New Zealand public Opinion, I look forward to reading the critique and feedback.
Well I think everything you mention are very sensible and practical options! Strengthening the intelligence agencies and countering cyber threats is another area that could be boosted pronto eg personnel and investment etc. If NZ's primary area of concern is the Pacific, do we also need to provide support in these areas to safeguard the interests and functionality of their govt agencies, industry and commerce, energy and water infrastructure systems (etc) of our nearest neighbors? How can we utilise the "locals" to assist and safeguard their own systems and infrastructure (especially if isolated/cut-off until international data networks are restored)? Do we need mutual assistance programmes and specialist/technical training schemes etc? NZ personnel teams based in some of the islands? How do we (and "they") safeguard underseas data cables and satellite ground stations etc (i.e. areas that could be physically sabotaged or targeted cyber-wise)? Presumably our agencies assess such things for NZG (and presumably will need coordinating with our other Five Eye partners particularly Australia and the US)? These could also be good "soft power" type initiatives that help strengthen the collective security and "political orbit" of these Pacific nations.
For Defence though and the next 5 years, growing personnel and infrastructure will be vital (which helpfully aligns with the NZG's plans anyway eg "People, Infrastructure, Pacific .... so they can't shrink this one haha, they will need to expand this)!
For example if the RNZAF requires additional aircraft/numbers, they will need to train more pilots (and ground support crews), so will require more training aircraft (is NZDF prioritising additional T-6 Texans? How long to obtain them off the production lines? Apparently they barely have enough to cover existing training needs especially if aircraft go u/s. Numbers wise could we be needing to roughly double the fleet eg 9 to 18 etc)?
The King Air KA350 multi-engine trainers (and the air warfare training variants) are leased so presumably could be acquired relatively quickly from commercial sources if additional a/c are required (but may require time to be fitted out esp. the air warfare variants).
But with the advent of additional jet aircraft in the fleet i.e. P-8 Poseidon, could RNZAF justify advanced jet trainers (commercial LearJet/Falcon etc ... or military Aermacchi M-346/KAI T-50/BAe Hawk/Boeing-Saab T-7A types etc) .... with the added advantage of now having an initial LIFT capability? Should of course an ACF be established later, as that skillset is re-generated (perhaps with second-hand F-16's/FA-18's initially, during the "walking" stage), then could this be a prudent move?
Also for the next 5 years, additional C-130J-30's would have to be a must have, and ideally not just 1 but at least another 4 or 5 to bring the fleet up to 8-9 (rule of 3's again). They are relatively inexpensive to procure (~US$1b for those numbers). There will be much to move trans-Tasman, Pacific, Asia and further afield wise (and Antarctica). If we look back at the air transport needs in WW2 even for the Pacific theatre the RNZAF required dozens of transport aircraft. (Perhaps if the US's Lend-Lease programme could extend (from Ukraine) to down under, it could be an opportunity to acquire further a/c)? After all even the RAAF are looking to potentially acquire additional C-130J-30's, so if RNZAF obtained a few more then that could allow for a reasonable, interoprerable "ANZAC" fleet!
One or two more P-8 Poseidons are another easy "must have", and for the NZG it would (in their eyes) send a "strong" signal to our allies of our "commitments" (!).
(I personally think another 4-5 Poseidons would send a strong signal and help better support our areas of operations ... but I know that is "fantasy fleet" stuff ..... although it shouldn't be, according to a US
DoD report NZ acquired its four P-8A's for approx US$1b (approx <$NZ1.5b), so another four-five P-8A's would cost about $NZ1.5-2b ... as the original NZ Poseidon acquisition project ($NZ2.4b) also included costs for the initial training in the US, horizontal works at Ohakea, the double hanger and offices, warehouse and parts store, Tactical Operations Centre (TOC), Mobile Tactical Operations Centre (MTOC), Training and Simulator Building, Aircraft Ground Support Building. For the UK's P-8A's at RAF Lossiemouth, they have a triple bay hanger for their nine P-8A's, so Ohakea may be able to make do with its double hanger but perhaps another hanger or extension, and additional workshops and offices may be required to support more efficient operations? Yes, more pilots, crew, ground and support crew (and the means to house them) will be required adding to the Operational budget costs, so I guess the questions are, what are the other priorities, and not only RNZAF but the wider NZDF i.e. Army and Navy, and what is the Govt prepared to spend ... if anything)?