The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[phreeky]

"Advanced" semiconducter refere to the newest generations of CPU which is more a statement on the manufacturing engineering then on the capabilities of the chips.

"Advanced" could mean all kinds of things, it doesn't have to by 7nm chips or similar. It's a very vague term.

I expect they'd have a fairly extensive use of general purpose microcontrollers. Probably things like Atmega, PIC, TI components etc (lots of American companies involved here). Probably the industrial-rated versions, not the ones that'd be mass stocked at your local electronics store (though typically code-compatible). Definitely some specialised stuff for HMI. There might be more cutting-edge chips in use for image processing and the like. There are also items such as imaging sensors.

Even IF you can source alternatives from other companies (i.e. in China), you're assuming that all the applicable physical and electrical characteristics are the same/similar, and that's completely ignoring the testing with them. If they require code changes, and well the list goes on.

Essentially it's not whether Russia CAN build a lot of this without supplies from countries imposing sanctions (no doubt that can with enough effort), but whether they can start doing so within a useful time frame.

And what about parts like bearings? If they haven't already designed around domestically manufactured parts then that's not also a weekend job.

This isn't about what Russia can or cannot do - almost all countries would have similar issues - but more so highlights the globalisation of manufacturing of complex systems.

 

[STURM]

If tanks are properly supported by infantry, arty, air cover and a recce screen but are still getting knocked out in numbers then they are a "liability" but that's certainly not the case now in the Ukraine.

If the Russians had deployed T-34s and KVs they would have been more vulnerable to shoulder launched and other weapons because they have a lower baseline protection level and no ERA. We've heard about tanks knocked out by various weapons; what about those which were hit but survived?

 

[Ananda]

JSC "Mikron" - Chipmaker №1 in Russia

Center of industry expertise and technological innovations. Company portfolio comprises more than 700 product types, including ICs for protected storage media and industrial application, chips for ID documents, banking and transport cards, insurance certificates and RFID tags to cope with the...

en.mikron.ru

Mikron is being claim as Russia #1 commercial semiconductor manufacturer. The best they can do is 65nm chips. However it seems so far enough for Russian effort toward self sufficient and import substitution.

I haven't found any info on Rostec military specs semiconductor. However military specs semiconductor development basically follow different curve against commercial/civilian semiconductor. Even in US many big defense contractor build their own foundry for military specs semiconductor. The usage is relatively much smaller then civilian specs, thus they can still afford to build in in house in US. So I suspect that's what Rostec also done.

Russian utilisation on commercial based for their own semiconductor is still in relatively early. This is an example on Russian Indigenous development for commercial base smart IP based intercom. They seems understand that basically when it enter market, it will be less competitive then Western products.

techstony.com

However after this, no matter what the results of the war, it won't matter anyway, as US and Allies product most likely will be gone from Russian market anyway.

I do see Sino Russian joint development in Tech will be much increasing in future. Eventough China semiconductor foundries are ahead of Russian ones, but so far still behind the Taiwanese, South Korean and Japanese ones. However China and Russia increasingly understand they have to rely on each other more.

Questions will remind how fast they can catch up. Let see if this sanction will only fasten both of them co-op to catching up in electronics including semiconductor. Despite US threat on further sanction toward China semiconductor producers if they sell semiconductor to Russia, well some of them already in US sanction anyway.

 

[John Fedup]

JSC "Mikron" - Chipmaker №1 in Russia

Center of industry expertise and technological innovations. Company portfolio comprises more than 700 product types, including ICs for protected storage media and industrial application, chips for ID documents, banking and transport cards, insurance certificates and RFID tags to cope with the...

en.mikron.ru

Mikron is being claim as Russia #1 commercial semiconductor manufacturer. The best they can do is 65nm chips. However it seems so far enough for Russian effort toward self sufficient and import substitution.

I haven't found any info on Rostec military specs semiconductor. However military specs semiconductor development basically follow different curve against commercial/civilian semiconductor. Even in US many big defense contractor build their own foundry for military specs semiconductor. The usage is relatively much smaller then civilian specs, thus they can still afford to build in in house in US. So I suspect that's what Rostec also done.

Russian utilisation on commercial based for their own semiconductor is still in relatively early. This is an example on Russian Indigenous development for commercial base smart IP based intercom. They seems understand that basically when it enter market, it will be less competitive then Western products.

However after this, no matter what the results of the war, it won't matter anyway, as US and Allies product most likely will be gone from Russian market anyway.

techstony.com

I do see Sino Russian joint development in Tech will be increasing in future. Eventough China semiconductor foundries are ahead of Russian ones, but so far still behind the Taiwanese, South Korean and Japanese ones.

Questions will remind how fast they can catch up. However this sanction will only fasten both of them co-op to catching up in electronics including semiconductor.

Xi’s catch up plan might be invading Taiwan. Could result in a scenario where the Taiwanese decide to torch their chip industry.

 

[Ananda]

Could result in a scenario where the Taiwanese decide to torch their chip industry.

Seems so far they still try attracting brain drain from Taiwanese semiconductor industries instead. China invasion will definitely results on Taiwanese industry destruction including their semiconductor.

Perhaps I'm bit cynical on this. I do suspect one of the reasons why Russia basically destroying Ukraine Industry, because they don't see the need to maintain them. Rather then become problem in future, better destroying them. Afterall that's part of their demilitarisation goals. Russia can not grind Ukraine military down, if heavy industry that support Ukraine war machine still there.

While China perhaps still see the need to maintain Taiwan High Tech industry. Industrial dependency can also become reason to keep business relationship. Ukraine on other hand basically close Industrial relationship with Russia after 2014 (after Maidan). Perhaps it also become less insentive for Russia to keep Ukraine heavy Industry intact.

 

[GermanHerman]

"Advanced" could mean all kinds of things, it doesn't have to by 7nm chips or similar. It's a very vague term.

I expect they'd have a fairly extensive use of general purpose microcontrollers. Probably things like Atmega, PIC, TI components etc (lots of American companies involved here). Probably the industrial-rated versions, not the ones that'd be mass stocked at your local electronics store (though typically code-compatible). Definitely some specialised stuff for HMI. There might be more cutting-edge chips in use for image processing and the like. There are also items such as imaging sensors.

Even IF you can source alternatives from other companies (i.e. in China), you're assuming that all the applicable physical and electrical characteristics are the same/similar, and that's completely ignoring the testing with them. If they require code changes, and well the list goes on.

Essentially it's not whether Russia CAN build a lot of this without supplies from countries imposing sanctions (no doubt that can with enough effort), but whether they can start doing so within a useful time frame.

And what about parts like bearings? If they haven't already designed around domestically manufactured parts then that's not also a weekend job.

This isn't about what Russia can or cannot do - almost all countries would have similar issues - but more so highlights the globalisation of manufacturing of complex systems.

Yes advanced can mean a whole lot of things but when it comes to the "advanced" semiconducters that come out of taiwan it usualy adresses the work of TMSC and Samsung for S. Korea.

Are microcontroller similiarly dependend on cutting edge foundries?

But on your second point: russia has quite a long lasting history of sourcing sanctioned stuff and Putin himself somewhat ironicly was directly involved in these kinda schemes when he first entered politics as St Petersburg deputy mayor.

Once again I would point to Catherine Belton's book on Putin and his entourage if someone is interested in those schemes.

I do think russia will be able to source most vital parts relativly quickly untill their industry adapts and either starts producing their own or source it from chinese foundries.

On another note, there are quite horrible pictures emerging of allegedly ukrainian troops torturing and killing russian POW's.

I wont post a link for obvious reasons, it's easily found If anyone has the urge to watch it.

It's fairly sad to see the situation deteriorate like that and is far better propaganda for russia then anything the kremlin could ever release. One has to hope that this remains an isolated incident but the human rights situation is in general somewhat concerning.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Around Kiev.

Russian VDV striking targets near Kiev.

Zvezdanews

⚡️Кадры с БПЛА: видео артиллерийского удара ВДВ по противнику в Киевской области «Нашей батареей были уничтожены танковая и тыловая колонны противника. Стрельбу вели с различной дистанции. Работа ведется как днем, так и ночью. Личный состав полностью готов к ведению огня в любых условиях и...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian TOS-1 firing near Kamenka, Kiev region.

Старше Эдды

Работа ТОСа по позициям ВСУ в Каменке.

t.me

Ukrainian Ural, and 2 BRDM-2s burned out near Kiev.

Милитарист

Подбитый в ходе боев под Киевом УРАЛ-4320 ВСУ

t.me

Милитарист

Сразу две уничтоженные БРДМ-2 ВСУ в ходе недавних боев под Киевом

t.me

Burning fuel storage facility in Kalinovka, Kiev region.

Милитарист

Горящая нефтебаза в Калиновке на спутниковом снимке

t.me

Battle damage, truck depot near Kiev. Allegedly a staging area for Ukrainian forces.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Попавшая под обстрел автобаза под Киевом, в которой находились украинские позиции.

t.me

Battle damage at Gostomel' airport.

Kotsnews

Апокалиптичные виды аэродрома Гостомель. Никогда не думал, что БМД может ездить так быстро. @sashakots

t.me

The North.

Battle damage to the base of the 41st Territorial Defense Btln from a Russian strike. Allegedly 35 KIA.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Армия России уничтожила базу 41 батальона ТерО под Черниговом Ударом РСЗО «Град» уничтожен очередной объект Теробороны у Чернигова. На бывшей лыжной базе размещался штаб и склады формирований 41 батальона ТерО Черниговщины (Чернигов-2). На кадрах БПЛА видно уничтожение здания, где хранилось...

t.me

Ukrainian munition storage captured near Chernigov.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Slavutich, Russian and Ukrainian flags flying over Slavutich.

Рядовой на проводе

✔️ Славутич. Российский и украинские флаги над зданием городской администрации.

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

A missile strike hit Kharkov.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Над Харьковом виднеется зарево Очевидцы сообщают, что был нанесен удар ракетой, в результате чего вспыхнул пожар t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian remote minelayers firing near Kharkov. This really makes me wonder. We have two possibilities. The Zemledelie minelayer isn't really a normal minelayer. It's basically an MLRS for whom the standard munition is landmines. However there have long been rumors that the type is also planned for use as regular rocket-artillery. If it's being used for laying mines, it means Russian forces are switching to the defense in some areas, or at least preparing for possible Ukrainian counter-attacks.

Парламент с кнопкой

Эксклюзивные кадры. Работа российской инженерной системы дистанционного минирования «Земледелие». Харьковская область.

t.me

A destroyed Ukrainian Grad in Kharkov.

Милитарист

Уничтоженная в жилом квартале Харькова украинская РСЗО «Град»

t.me

Barvenkovo near Kharkov got hit by Russian artillery. Ukrainian Army has allegedly 5 KIA, territorial defense 1. WIA numbers not available yet.

Dambiev

Харьковская областная прокуратура, подчиненная пока что киевскому режиму сообщает о том, что "26 марта 2022 года около 11 часов военнослужащие ВС РФ произвели обстрел г. Барвенково. В результате повреждено помещение лицея. Среди погибших — 4 военнослужащих ВСУ и 1 представитель батальона...

t.me

A damaged and abandoned Russian Msta-S in Trostyanets. There were reports of a Ukrainian counter-attack there.

Colonelcassad

Брошенная поврежденная САУ "Мста" в Тростянце (к северу от Ахтырки). Несмотря на вчерашние заявления, что Тростянец ВСУ смогло отбить, сегодня уже более скромно заявляют, что бои за Тростянец продолжаются.

t.me

Battle damage at the Chuguev fuel equipment factory, from a Russian strike.

Colonelcassad

Спутниковый снимок с результатом авиаудара ВКС России по Чугуевскому заводу топливной аппаратуры в Харьковской области. Рвануло там знатно 25-го марта.

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Unconfirmed reports out of the Zaporozhye that civilians cars with people trying to leave the city were shot up by Ukrainian forces. So far there has been no mass exodus, and the city is not surrounded so I have my doubts. It's possible they were heading towards Melitopol', Russian lines, in the south, and were fired on by overzealous/undisciplined territorial defense formations.

Херсонский Вестник

⚡️21 марта на блокпосту в Запорожье по Каширскому шоссе, такими полицейскими были цинично убиты три местных жителя‼️ Уважаемые земляки❗️Будте аккуратны❗️

t.me

Владимир Рогов

В Запорожье расстреливают людей, пытающихся покинуть город Из моего родного города продолжают поступать тревожные сведения. Жуткие фото расправы над мирными жителями, которые пытались покинуть Запорожье. Их расстреляли боевики Зеленского из полиции и теробороны. 17 марта на блокпосту...

t.me

Man tied to a pole and beaten in Dnepropetrovsk, by territorial defense formations.

Оперативные сводки

В Днепре (скоро вновь будет Днепропетровск) шакалы из теробороны с автоматами накинулась на одного мирного жителя и начала его калечить. Беспредел этих вооруженных формирований на Украине превосходит масштабы "лихих 90-х". Генпрокурор Украины Ирина Венедиктова: "Для нас в Украине очень важно...

t.me

In Energodar Russian National Guard let local children climb into their APC to look at it. A reminder, near Energodar there was a protest against Russian troops moving that ended ugly with a man being wounded by a smoke grenade. It remains to be seen how things go there. If Russia can keep protests small and the locals neutral/friendly, the areas will be much easier to administer.

Рыбарь

В Энергодаре российские военнослужащие разрешили на радость местной детворе полазать по технике. Они даже пообещали на днях покатать подростков на БТР и других бронемашинах. Часть проукраински настроенных жителей уже негодуют в соцсетях и сетуют на то, что дети «попадают под влияние российских...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Дети освобожденного Энергодара.

t.me

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

The recent action over Sevastopol' apparently was a Ukrainian UAV.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian checkpoint in Odessa.

Милитарист

Мэр Одессы Геннадий Труханов заявил, что Российский флот пытается продвинуться к Одессе. По его словам, «Защищать Одессу будет сложно, но мы сделаем все возможное»

t.me

People lining up in Odessa, allegedly for humanitarian aid. I suspect it's line to a store.

БелВПО

Очередная голодная очередь за гуманитаркой в Одессе

t.me

Protests continue in Kherson, size of protests remains small.

Херсонский Вестник

⚡️В Херсоне прошла акция протеста с украинскими флагами.⚡️ Посыл у неё тот же, но хочется обратить внимание на другое. Заметили, как изменяется число митингующих? Из раза в раз число выходящих на улицы людей уменьшается. Думаем, тут сумма факторов: кто-то отрезвел, кто-то понял бессмысленность...

t.me

LDNR Front.

Repeat strikes at a cluster of buildings near Izyum where Ukrainian vehicles are supposedly staged. A reminder, Izyum is technically in the south of Kharkov region, and the offensive through Izyum is pushing out of Kharkov area. However I'm including that offensive in the LDNR front category because this offensive threatens the rear of Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk-Gorlovka area.

Военный Осведомитель

Второй удар в том же месте. Были уничтожены здания.

t.me

ANNA NEWS

Работа "Искандеров" по позициям ВСУ в Изюме. Боевые машины прятались за православным храмом. Не помогло — церковь цела, техника уничтожена. грешновато

t.me

Satellite imagery of battle damage in Izyum.

Милитарист

Новые снимки Maxar с российской техникой в районе Изюма

t.me

Assorted footage out of Izyum. Warning footage of corpses, second link.

Старше Эдды

Немного атмосферного Изюма.

t.me

Старше Эдды

Ещё немного про доставку гуманитарной помощи в Изюм. Люди собирались возле церкви и ждали гуманитарку на протяжении двух дней. Как только представилась малейшая возможность, колонны туда пришли. Я сам ехал на этой первой колонне и она шла 9 часов ( мне вообще повезло, первую колонну в Липцы...

t.me

Rebel forces have made gains at Mar'inka. Warning footage of corpses.

Colonelcassad

В Марьинке армия ДНР проламывая укрепрайон ВСУ уже дошла до террикона, с которого корректировался огонь украинских минометов и артиллерии.

t.me

Rebel tankers bail out after their tank was knocked out near Mar'inka after running over a landmine.

Romanov Лайт ]ࣩࣩࣩࣩ࣯ࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩ

25.03.2022 Марьинка, Донецкая Народная Республика. Экипаж только-что подбитого танка. @romanov_92

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Captured anti-tank weapons in Izyum.

Старше Эдды

Немного трофеев из Изюма. Немецкую форму нашли в Каменке.

t.me

Russian forces entering LDNR areas.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

.
Mariupol'.

Rebel T-72B, uparmored, and BMP-2, acting as an armored support team, Mariupol'.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian T-72B3 mod'16 pair providing fire support in Mariupol'.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Chechen fighters in Mariupol'.

Colonelcassad

Опять же зачистка Мариуполя. Та же группа с танками.

t.me

Battle damage in Mariupol'. Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of residential areas.

Colonelcassad

Басурин объявил, что противник выбит из жилых кварталов Мариуполя и отошел в индустриальную застройку.

t.me

МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ ФАН

Левобережье Мариуполя прямо сейчас выглядит так. #Мариуполь @riafan_everywhere

t.me

A Russian T-72B3 mod'16 towing another.

Военный Осведомитель

Один Т-72Б3 мод. 2016 ВС РФ тащит в «больничку» аналогичный Т-72Б3 мод.2016 в окрестностях Мариуполя.

t.me

Locals in Mariupol' recount that Azov fired on civilians dwellings in the private sector, killing people.

Telegram: Contact @zheltyeslivy

t.me

Ukrainian BTR (I can't tell if 60 or 70, probably 70), and ATGM, captured near Mariupol'.

Военный Осведомитель

Захваченный украинский БТР и ПТРК Скиф под Мариуполем.

t.me

Russian forces in Mariupol'.

ANNA NEWS

⚡️Репортаж военного корреспондента @anna_news из Мариуполя ❗️Эксклюзив❗️ Российские и республиканские военные завершают операцию по разрезанию группировки украинской армии в Мариуполе. Последние оставшиеся в городе украинские силовики разделены в двух котлах, где идет их планомерное...

t.me

Russian humanitarian aid has arrived in Mariupol'.

Крупнокалиберный Переполох

Мариуполь. Раздаём помощь рядом с улицей Металургов

t.me

Civilians outside of Mariupol' crying at the sight of bread being handed out as humanitarian aid. Location and context unclear.

Репортёр Руденко V

Люди, вышедшие из Мариуполя, плачут при виде хлеба….. Ребята из Внедорожного клуба Донбасса, как и многие другие волонтеры, всячески пытаются помочь людям. Привозят еду, лекарства, дают возможность связаться с родственниками. Ситуация в городе катастрофическая.

t.me

A school basement in Mariupol' was being used as a base for Ukrainian forces. A civilian was found tortured and killed there, with a swastika drawn on her stomach. There are also abandoned uniforms, and destroyed small arms, likely burned by Ukrainian forces before retreating from there. Warning footage of corpses.

The West.

Fires continue to burn in L'vov.

Повёрнутые на войне

Во Львове даже не пытаются тушить, ждут когда само догорит.

t.me

Dambiev

Горящий вечерний Львов.

t.me

Strikes landing in L'vov. It looks like it got hit with at least two waves of strikes.

Colonelcassad

Прилет по Львову. Во всех областях Западной Украины объявлена воздушная тревога.

t.me

ZERGULIO

Вторая серия ударов по Львову

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще один прилет по Львову.

t.me

Dambiev

Еще один вечерний прилет крылатых ракет по Львову.

t.me

Misc.

Ukrainian territorial defense in action. Location and context unclear.

МИГ России

Война глазами фольксштурма. Где-то под Сумами.

t.me

Ukrainian 2S7s getting hit, allegedly by PGMs.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian VDV column in combat action, likely near Kiev. Context unclear, possibly an ambush.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Su-25 taking out an alleged munitions dump.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

Interesting info has come out. Head of the LNR has stated that the LNR might seek to join the Russian Federation. Russian officialdom replied that there are no obstacles to letting the LNR and DNR join. This might mean Russia will annex the LDNR areas directly. This could change the negotiations significantly. I'm genuinely wondering if Russia would back off on the demilitarization demand if Ukraine recognizes certain territorial losses. That could open the door to a settlement. Formal neutrality, de-nazification (legal bans on organizations like Azov and S.14, and associated symbols, possibly on the German model), and recognition of territorial losses in Crimea and the LDNR. Russia could call this a victory and the demilitarization could be played as "well we destroyed the Ukrainian military". Ukraine would be open to pursue the option suggested by @Big_Zucchini vis-a-vis building up a military to deter Russia for the future and then trying to join NATO.

EDIT: To be precise Russian reply came from the Council of the Federation and said that they see no obstacles to the republics holding referndums on joining Russia. This isn't exactly the same as extending an invitation, but it suggests that the path is at least potentially being looked at. I don't think Pasechnik would make this statement without some coordination with Russia.

 

[T.C.P]

Interesting info has come out. Head of the LNR has stated that the LNR might seek to join the Russian Federation. Russian officialdom replied that there are no obstacles to letting the LNR and DNR join. This might mean Russia will annex the LDNR areas directly. This could change the negotiations significantly. I'm genuinely wondering if Russia would back off on the demilitarization demand if Ukraine recognizes certain territorial losses. That could open the door to a settlement. Formal neutrality, de-nazification (legal bans on organizations like Azov and S.14, and associated symbols, possibly on the German model), and recognition of territorial losses in Crimea and the LDNR. Russia could call this a victory and the demilitarization could be played as "well we destroyed the Ukrainian military". Ukraine would be open to pursue the option suggested by @Big_Zucchini vis-a-vis building up a military to deter Russia for the future and then trying to join NATO.

Would LNR and DNR formally joining Russia be more beneficial than those states being quasi independent and serving as buffers? If this war ends and Russia wants to lift sanctions, they wont be able to use LNR and DNR as platforms for their assymetric wars anymore. Any attack from LNR and DNR will be official attakcs from Russia if they formally join.

And as for legal bans on Azov and S.14, with their current popularity in Ukraine, will the Ukraine govt be able to pull it off and even if they did ban them, it would be a ban in name only. Its not like the members will disappear into thin air, they will just adopt another name. The German model worked because the Nazis were thoroughly and utterly demolished in the heartland of Germany, I dont see Russia pulling that off with Azov.

 

[QEDdeq]

Interesting info has come out. Head of the LNR has stated that the LNR might seek to join the Russian Federation. Russian officialdom replied that there are no obstacles to letting the LNR and DNR join. This might mean Russia will annex the LDNR areas directly. This could change the negotiations significantly. I'm genuinely wondering if Russia would back off on the demilitarization demand if Ukraine recognizes certain territorial losses. That could open the door to a settlement. Formal neutrality, de-nazification (legal bans on organizations like Azov and S.14, and associated symbols, possibly on the German model), and recognition of territorial losses in Crimea and the LDNR. Russia could call this a victory and the demilitarization could be played as "well we destroyed the Ukrainian military". Ukraine would be open to pursue the option suggested by @Big_Zucchini vis-a-vis building up a military to deter Russia for the future and then trying to join NATO.

EDIT: To be precise Russian reply came from the Council of the Federation and said that they see no obstacles to the republics holding referndums on joining Russia. This isn't exactly the same as extending an invitation, but it suggests that the path is at least potentially being looked at. I don't think Pasechnik would make this statement without some coordination with Russia.

Here is my take on Russia's objectives:

Denazification - long term Russia has no interest in actually denazifying Ukraine. The existence of those groups is actually destabilizing for Ukraine and they have potential to cause further instability in a post-war weaken Ukraine. The ''objective'' served Russia well as Casus Belli but beyond that it has no practical usefulness.

Neutrality - let's be serious, there is no such thing, yeah they could put a signature on piece of paper just to say they give something to Putin, but it will be gone with the next parliament and next president who will no longer recognize what was signed and will ask to join NATO. Same as with the Minsk agreements, promises mean nothing.

Demilitarisation - another worthless aim, how do you demilitarise a nation that is being fed tons of weapons from the West? Plus they will find ways around any signed commitment of limiting no of troops via police, paramilitary and so on. Russia knows this is another meaningless objective.

Territorial gains - this is the only thing that matters and the only real historical measure of who won the war. Anything that links Crimea to the rest of Russia has a huge strategic importance and alone it would be sufficient to justify the losses incurred during the war. Integrating LNDR areas in their full administrative borders would be a big bonus. Those areas have high population and are economically important, plus they are easier to pacify due to the majority ethnic Russians living there.

Beyond the territorial gains Russia will probably also envisage creating a new rogue statelet that could be used as proxy to wage future wars, maintain instability in Ukraine and have further claims. For instance a Novorossiya type state created in northern areas of Zaporozhia and Kherson would have further claims in Dnipro and Odessa for possible future episodes of ongoing series.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

To be precise Russian reply came from the Council of the Federation and said that they see no obstacles to the republics holding referndums on joining Russia. This isn't exactly the same as extending an invitation, but it suggests that the path is at least potentially being looked at. I don't think Pasechnik would make this statement without some coordination with Russia.

I think the fact they haven't been annexed by Russia so far is to an extent a testament to Russia's own unwillingness to annex them.

Let's examine why that is a possibility:
1. Russia annexes LDNR and ensures Ukraine will attack within Russia's official borders for the foreseeable future, and try to reclaim it. In other words, Ukraine will be dictating the tempo there, and Russia will be many times forced into actions to save face, and that are escalatory in nature.

2. Russia does NOT annex LDNR, and so any conflict between it and Ukraine can be framed as a conflict between LDNR and Ukraine, and then Russia chooses the tempo.

3. Russia will be required upon annexation to invest in LDNR and somewhat care for them, lest it incurs some internal PR damage.

4. That's enough points for a list.

 

[Feanor]

Here is my take on Russia's objectives:

Denazification - long term Russia has no interest in actually denazifying Ukraine. The existence of those groups is actually destabilizing for Ukraine and they have potential to cause further instability in a post-war weaken Ukraine. The ''objective'' served Russia well as Casus Belli but beyond that it has no practical usefulness.

Well... remember 2014? When Ukraine's army was incapable of fighting, Right Sector and others provided volunteers for formations. So if Ukraine is demilitarized, i.e. the military is institutionally so weak that they can't effectively stop Russia, then making sure there aren't any large nation-wide organizations with government support that could step in might be helpful. I'm not sure it's a realistic goal or understanding of the situation, but it makes sense to me as an objective from Russia's standpoint.

Neutrality - let's be serious, there is no such thing, yeah they could put a signature on piece of paper just to say they give something to Putin, but it will be gone with the next parliament and next president who will no longer recognize what was signed and will ask to join NATO. Same as with the Minsk agreements, promises mean nothing.

If the post-war settlement essentially compromises Ukrainian sovereignty by promising neutrality, de-nazification, and de-militarization, then the next president making this move could be taken as a signal for Russia to move in again.

Demilitarisation - another worthless aim, how do you demilitarise a nation that is being fed tons of weapons from the West? Plus they will find ways around any signed commitment of limiting no of troops via police, paramilitary and so on. Russia knows this is another meaningless objective.

Presumably demilitarization would require Ukraine to stop accepting those weapons, limit the size of armed forces and paramilitary structures, I think this demand goes to establishing institutional weakness in Ukraine from a defense standpoint. Make it possible for Russia to intervene again if Russia chooses.

Territorial gains - this is the only thing that matters and the only real historical measure of who won the war. Anything that links Crimea to the rest of Russia has a huge strategic importance and alone it would be sufficient to justify the losses incurred during the war. Integrating LNDR areas in their full administrative borders would be a big bonus. Those areas have high population and are economically important, plus they are easier to pacify due to the majority ethnic Russians living there.

I think this is fundamentally false. The connection between territory and power is an ancient one and stems largely from the fact that economies were far more isolated, production chains were much shorter and technology was in principle achievable by any large country even if operating mostly by itself. When the foundation of economics is agriculture with some minor manufacturing, taking the territory with the peasants who live there is key. Consider today's world. Russia was until this war thoroughly tied into the global economy, even with the hiccup of 2014. Russian trucks and cars rely on imported components, and Russia exports automotive components and products to other countries. Russia aerospace even more so, and I would argue the greatest success of Russian civilian aerospace is not the much discussed SSJ, but the inclusion of Russian manufacturing on a large scale in the production of Boeing and Airbus airliners. Russia's economy, even resource export, is intimately tied into the global trade network. And for all the attempts to paint the Russian economy as small, based on nominal GDP, it isn't a small economy. It produces vast quantities of goods and services that are used the world over in various production chains. This is why isolating Russia has had such a major and nasty shock on the world economy (unlike say the USSR who was mostly isolated, save COMECON and a number of third world allies). However... Russia needs the world more then the world needs Russia. This is a basic economic reality. If territorial gain was the only real measure, Russia could have taken half of Ukraine in '14 with minimal resistance and a far less consolidated response from the west. It's possible Russian leadership thinks in the manner you have just outlined, but if they do they are badly mistaken. This new territory and population will mostly be a dead weight. Even Crimea, much smaller, sapped huge resources and was really only worth it because it could be taken without a fight and had a downright friendly local population. There is no amount of Ukrainian territory that can compensate for the economic damage Russia has taken and will take. Especially when you consider the damage from heavy fighting, the resources expended in rebuilding, and all this while under massive sanctions.

Beyond the territorial gains Russia will probably also envisage creating a new rogue statelet that could be used as proxy to wage future wars, maintain instability in Ukraine and have further claims. For instance a Novorossiya type state created in northern areas of Zaporozhia and Kherson would have further claims in Dnipro and Odessa for possible future episodes of ongoing series.

Or the Donetsko-Krivorozhskaya Republic that has already been suggested before. Except I don't think this can be done other then on Russian bayonets. The LDNR as statelets were doable in large part because of local support, if not for separatism, at least for pushing back on the Kiev government. We don't see this in Kherson, the only major city that has fallen. And most of the civilians out of Mariupol' seem to be fleeing north-westward towards Zaporozhye. No matter how unhappy they are with Azov or Zelensky (and the latter is far from certain) they're not running into LDNR lands. And this is despite Mariupol' being part of the DNR originally.

 

[Feanor]

I think the fact they haven't been annexed by Russia so far is to an extent a testament to Russia's own unwillingness to annex them.

Let's examine why that is a possibility:
1. Russia annexes LDNR and ensures Ukraine will attack within Russia's official borders for the foreseeable future, and try to reclaim it. In other words, Ukraine will be dictating the tempo there, and Russia will be many times forced into actions to save face, and that are escalatory in nature.

Crimea already sets this out. On the flip side if Ukraine knows that combat action will result not in muted responses from the rebels, who are attempting to observe Minsk 2, and instead the Russian army, the risk of such actions are higher. You're also assuming that in this scenario Russia relinquishes the rest of their territorial gains in Ukraine. Russia could recognize and annex the LDNR, while continuing to hold ~half of Ukraine without annexation.

2. Russia does NOT annex LDNR, and so any conflict between it and Ukraine can be framed as a conflict between LDNR and Ukraine, and then Russia chooses the tempo.

3. Russia will be required upon annexation to invest in LDNR and somewhat care for them, lest it incurs some internal PR damage.

Russia already does 3. They would probably have to do a little more of it, and I agree it's not a smart move. But it's a move that's being indicated.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Around Kiev.

Explosions near Kiev.

Рыбарь

Взрывы в окрестностях Киева. #Киев #Россия #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Destroyed ZiL-131 near Kiev. Presumably Ukrainian.

Милитарист

Уничтоженный под Киевом ЗИЛ-131 ВСУ

t.me

Battle damage in Borodyanka, a destroyed BMP-2, allegedly Ukrainian.

Неофициальный Безсонов

#эксклюзив Бородянка, Киевская область. Друг прислал, который находится в контингенте ВС РФ на Киевском направлении. Сожжённая украинская техника рядом с жилыми домами и погибшие украинские боевики.

t.me

Assorted footage, Gostomel'.

Неофициальный Безсонов

Гостомель, Киевская область. Мой товарищ на фоне новенького трофейного танка.

t.me

Russian VDV operating near Kiev, we see the Strela-10s, large troop columns and a pontoon bridge. In one part they seem to imply they shot down the UAV being shown. I have my doubts. A shoot-down would result in drastically more damage. In the third video we have Russian SATCOM being set up in Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian helo near Kharkov.

Telegram: Contact @vegcelo

t.me

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Unconfirmed info out of Odessa that local territorial defense seized a civilian ship, the MV Rahmi Yagci, a Turkish vessel.

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

❗Появилась информация, что одесский фольксштурм совершил рейдерский захват турецкого торгового судна "MV Rahmi Yagci" в порту Черноморск. Экипаж корабля в течение нескольких дней удерживался в заложниках представителями территориальной обороны Одессы, которые были вооружены АК-74 и АКС-74. О...

t.me

LDNR Front.

Russian forces apparently control the river crossing south of Izyum. If true this not only confirms the fall of Izyum but threatens Ukrainian forces at Slavyansk-Kramatorsk.

Старше Эдды

Переправа через Северский Донец южнее Изюма. То самое место, за которое шли ожесточенные бои на протяжении почти двух недель. Сейчас по ней идут наши войска по направлению к Славянску, а сгоревшие трупы солдат ВСУ, до сих пор «благоухают» в Каменке и Сухой Каменке. Одними из первых через неё...

t.me

Ukrainian POWs near Popasnaya are allowed to call home.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Mariupol'.

Ukrainian humvee destroyed in Mariupol', allegedly belongs to Ukrainian Marines, possibly the 503 Marine Btln.

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтоженный в Мариуполе хаммер морской пехоты ВСУ.

t.me

Allegedly a Russian marine evacuates a wounded civilian through a tree. They couldn't get in through the lobby.

Военная хроника

You can view and join @milchronicles right away.

t.me

Battle damage in Mariupol'.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Мариуполь: горящие дома и продолжающаяся зачистка Видео Рамзана Кадырова. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Assorted footage from the past 2 weeks.

Realdoc

Провел две недели в составе взвода, штурмующего Мариуполь. На передовой заболел и на пару дней вернулся в Донецк. Выкладываю пока только скрины — монтировать нет ни времени, ни сил. В городе гуманитарная катастрофа: электричества, тепла и воды нет почти месяц. «Патриотичная» украинская власть...

t.me

Base of the 503rd Marine Btln in Mariupol'.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The West.

Russian strikes continue in Lutsk. Allegedly another fuel storage facility.

Colonelcassad

В Луцке продолжают забивать на угрозы со стороны СБУ и снимают последствия российских ракетных ударов.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Прилет по Луцку. Украинские источники заявляют, что очередная нефтебаза.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Misc.

Russian forces firing Konkurs at something. Context and location unclear. ID of forces is also unclear, they're clearly not Ukrainian but beyond that... rebels? Chechen volunteers?

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Destroyed armored Humvee, location and context unclear. Allegedly taken out by a tank shot.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

DHL allegedly donated their vans to Ukrainian armed forces who are using their vans to move mortars around.

Dambiev

Кочующие минометные расчеты украинского фольксштурма теперь ездят на подаренных международной службой экспресс- доставки DHL микроавтобусах.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Assorted footage.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Уголок Ситха

Z-Донбасс

t.me

Russian BTR-82A in Ukraine with rubber side-skirts and cage armor.

Резиний снова в моде?

Уже не первый и не второй БТР дообшитый листами резинового покрытия

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A rare Russian Tornado-U armored truck variant.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Russian field hospital operating in support of Russian operations in Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Mi-8AMTSh operating over Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Twain]

A school basement in Mariupol' was being used as a base for Ukrainian forces. A civilian was found tortured and killed there, with a swastika drawn on her stomach. There are also abandoned uniforms, and destroyed small arms, likely burned by Ukrainian forces before retreating from there. Warning footage of corpses.

A patrick Lancaster video? This was the guy involved in the false flag IED "attack" near Donetsk

"But one suspicious video, which showed a gruesome scene of charred bodies and human skulls that seemed to have been sliced open, appeared so serious and egregious that Bellingcat decided to investigate further, speaking to an explosive weapons expert and a forensic pathologist in the process.

What they told us was that an apparent IED (improvised explosive device) attack used by separatist and Russian media as evidence of Ukraine’s aggression included the staged use of cadavers and likely faked IED damage.

According to the spokesman of the Ministry of Defence of the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ Eduard Basurin, three people were reported to have been killed in this incident. The ‘DNR’ People’s Militia posted images of the scene on its official Telegram channel. Pro-Kremlin media from Russian and separatist outlets, including the Russian daily newspaper Izvestiya and US blogger Patrick Lancaster, filmed the scene that morning. Their correspondents surveyed the two vehicles, as well as the point of detonation of the reported IED, claiming that the target of the attack was a ‘DNR’ military commander travelling in the van."

‘Exploiting Cadavers ’and ‘Faked IEDs’: Experts Debunk Staged Pre-War ‘Provocation’ in the Donbas - bellingcat

Russian media reported that a civilian car in the Donbas was destroyed by a Ukrainian IED in the days before the war. But damage to the vehicle doesn’t add up, and charred bodies show suspicious signs of an autopsy.

www.bellingcat.com

He's not exactly a credible source, at best he's a useful idiot

 

[Feanor]

A patrick Lancaster video? This was the guy involved in the false flag IED "attack" near Donetsk

"But one suspicious video, which showed a gruesome scene of charred bodies and human skulls that seemed to have been sliced open, appeared so serious and egregious that Bellingcat decided to investigate further, speaking to an explosive weapons expert and a forensic pathologist in the process.

What they told us was that an apparent IED (improvised explosive device) attack used by separatist and Russian media as evidence of Ukraine’s aggression included the staged use of cadavers and likely faked IED damage.

According to the spokesman of the Ministry of Defence of the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ Eduard Basurin, three people were reported to have been killed in this incident. The ‘DNR’ People’s Militia posted images of the scene on its official Telegram channel. Pro-Kremlin media from Russian and separatist outlets, including the Russian daily newspaper Izvestiya and US blogger Patrick Lancaster, filmed the scene that morning. Their correspondents surveyed the two vehicles, as well as the point of detonation of the reported IED, claiming that the target of the attack was a ‘DNR’ military commander travelling in the van."

‘Exploiting Cadavers ’and ‘Faked IEDs’: Experts Debunk Staged Pre-War ‘Provocation’ in the Donbas - bellingcat

Russian media reported that a civilian car in the Donbas was destroyed by a Ukrainian IED in the days before the war. But damage to the vehicle doesn’t add up, and charred bodies show suspicious signs of an autopsy.

www.bellingcat.com

He's not exactly a credible source, at best he's a useful idiot

He goes places and publishes footage. You need multiple data points to verify authenticity. If he's a useful idiot, so be it. His footage and viewpoint still require some acknowledgement. If it's a fake, let's see bellingcat dissect this material as well. Personally I will sleep better if it turns out stories of Azov atrocities are fundamentally untrue. However... we have far more then this data-point to attest to the overall behavior of that unit.

 

[hauritz]

Being Jewish and having had relatives who suffered at the hands of the Nazis in WW2 I doubt Zelensky has a great love of Nazis. But as a politician, fighting a war, and needing the AZOV fighters there is no way he could agree to de-Nazification, and of course Putin knows that.

If he were to agree to de-Nazification that could lead to a clash with the right wing fighters in Ukrainian's south. If he disagrees with de-Nazification then Putin can paint him as a Nazi sympathiser. Either way he can't really win. He also cannot surrender Ukraine territory for the same reason, it would be seen as selling out the people in those regions. Really there are very few concessions that Zelensky can make. At the moment the only concession I can see is a guarantee of neutrality but I don't know whether that would be enough to placate Putin.

 

[Twain]

He goes places and publishes footage. You need multiple data points to verify authenticity. If he's a useful idiot, so be it. His footage and viewpoint still require some acknowledgement. If it's a fake, let's see bellingcat dissect this material as well. Personally I will sleep better if it turns out stories of Azov atrocities are fundamentally untrue. However... we have far more then this data-point to attest to the overall behavior of that unit.

I'm not going to defend Azov, the second best thing that could happen in Ukraine is for them to be wiped out. Sources matter and this guy has a long history going back to at least flight MH 17. Seriously look him up, like I said he is at best a useful idiot that russia trots out for propaganda, at worst he is a willing accomplice. Seriously look him some of his history and credible sources are the rule here

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Ukraine should have the advantage in numbers of light infantry so all the Manpads/atgms supplied by the west make sense but with all footage of Ukrainian artillery getting hit and smashed gbad is there anything that can be sent to replace those losses in a meaningful timeframe? I understand...

www.defencetalk.com

"You are required to provide reliable reputable sources and Sputnik, Pravda, or RT are not reliable or reputable because they are propaganda channels."

 

[Ananda]

Ukraine would be open to pursue the option suggested by @Big_Zucchini vis-a-vis building up a military to deter Russia for the future and then trying to join NATO.

If assume Russia able to destroy Ukraine Army in the East, gain area of east of Dniper and creating new Republic there. Yes, Zelensky administration has no incentive to stay neutral. Basically Ukraine being done like German in the begining of previous Cold War, divided and must choose side.

Ukraine will be then a country being divided as barrier state between NATO and Russia. Thus not really what Putin say he wants on Neutral Ukraine.

On the other hand some speculations from last week that Ukraine opposition leader from Pro Russian factions was no where to be found. Speculations on he's detained by Zelensky, also speculations he's already in Russian area. If the later, then probably the Russian are preparing the Ukraine Opposition to take over the East. Afterall that's where the opposition constituence are.

Probably it is going to be the action being taken by Russian, if they see Zelensky will not compromise on Donbas and Crimea. So I do suspect they will give Zelensky choice either compromise on neutrality and recognition on Donbas plus Crimea or losing more teritory for another Pro Russian Republic.

 

[Soldier25]

The Russian army used new weapons for the first time in Ukraine, the work of the remote mining engineering system "Agriculture" was filmed near Kharkov. The video shows the moment of remote installation of minefields. The operation of this installation is similar to the work of the Grad MLRS. The difference is that instead of the warhead of a 122 mm rocket, they carry cassettes with mines. After the installation of mines, this territory is plotted on an electronic map, there is no need to carry out mine clearance manually, mines can be remotely deactivated.

Movement of a column of Russian military equipment of airborne units to the area of combat missions in the Kiev region