The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I also came across these figures - with the remark that they do not include the losses of the military forces of the "republics". They probably don't include losses of Chechen troops either.
They absolutely don't include the rebels. These are official figures from Russian MoD. They might include the Chechen National Guard units (though they might not, it's MoD). They probably don't include the volunteers.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
But we should not forgett that russia is undoubtly learning from this experience. When and if russia comes to the point of actualy trying something like this again many of the flaws we see now will propably be no factor anymore.
Except Russia had many of these same problems in Georgia in 2008 with units out running supply lines after relatively short movements, Maybe they will learn from it but IMO it will take either a massivechange in the thinking of existing p;ersonnel or a near purge of those in government and military command to make it so seeing as bugger all was done in 14 years from their last lesson.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Also these problems need money and time to fix. Russia has neither. If they do learn these lessons and apply it to their military then what they will end up with is a more competent military but it would have to be much smaller. For all of its bravado the Russian economy isn't really that much larger than Australia's and we are certainly not a superpower.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Another day and another dead General. That makes seven. Reports of an officer being killed by his own men as well.
1. Remember, we previously spoke of Plan A’s failure and the move to Plan B. It seems the Russians are on Plan C, now. Please don’t shoot the messenger, as Plan C is explained.

2. According to Russian MoD brief, announcing the war was entering a 'second phase':

3. Russia has admitted at least 1,351 KIA - a figure that I do not believe. This also means the war is going badly and the plans are being scaled back — the Russian MoD has provided an English translation of their brief.

4. According to UK MoD, combat attrition of Russian logistics has hurt so much that the battle for Kyiv has become a retreat from Kyiv — the average for the first 30 days stands at 62.6 verified equipment lost a day. Which is still around a BTGs equipment a day. It’s too early to tell but there are signs that the Russians are being hurt badly, as they attempt to advance or in some cases dig in to hold gains.

5. To make matters worse, Germany is now starting production of new anti-tank weapons to replace the initial batches sent to Ukraine.

Edit: More importantly, the production of 2,650 RGW90 (aka MATADOR) anti-tank weapons means an Israeli defence prime did not interfere with the export, as it owns the German company, Dynamit Nobel (DND). These are perfect for the urban fight. The DND version of the MATADOR is designed (in A2 variant) to penetrate 600 mm of RHA with a 90% hit probability on a NATO standard target, at a distance of 500 metres [and corrected based on feedback from kato’s superb reply, thanks].
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Another day and another dead General. That makes seven. Reports of an officer being killed by his own men as well.
Privates, Cpls, Sgts, Lts, Capts & even Majs are expendable and can be relatively easily replaced. However flag rank officers can't because of their knowledge, experience, and capabilities are greater and the more stars on their shoulder the harder they are to replace.

If soldiers are shooting their own officer, then he's done something really stupid or the discipline is bad. Remember during the Vietnam War when US grunts would frag their officers, usually in the latrines with a fragmentation grenade.

Edit: Ah that Colonel was run over. I read on Facebook last night that he was deliberately run over by his own tank driver but didn't place much credence in it so ignored it. The post said the driver ran over his legs. Wonder what he did to upset his driver so?
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
According to Russian MoD brief, announcing the war was entering a 'second phase':
Russian seems in their communique tell they are consistent with their aim. Thus the first stage is always securing Donbass and Crimea security


I put interfax this one, as it put Russian General Staff Rudskoi announcement. He put the first stage always been to secure Donbass, and the decision to widen theater is to in able Ukrainian ability for constant replenish forces in Donbas.

By his announcement, seems Russia will continue to force out Ukraine forces in Luhansk (almost complete), Donetsk (half way), and will going to attack Ukraine logistical line by missiles and air attack.

For me, seems Russia going to keep their gain not only in Donbas but also in Kherson and Zaporizhye Oblasts for Crimea security.

All other positions will be continue being hold for continue 'demilitarisation' by attacking and destroying Ukraine forces outside the major cities. However indication from Russian they will not move in to large cities like they do in Mariupol. Mariupol is different story seems, they need to hold it for Donbas security.

I say basically the other reason for Mariupol as they want to claim all shores of Azov sea. Afterall Russia think Azov sea is like their 'inland' sea. So I got a feeling those four Oblasts will be hold by them no matter what.

Seems after securing those four Oblasts, the rest of operation not to aim gaining more territory, but more to destroy what's left of Ukraine Army.

Add:

There's report that in Kherson, they already distributing Ruble for use on daily transaction. This's the thing that's being done in Donbas and Crimea. More sign Kherson Oblast and the adjacent Zaporizhye Oblast will be kept for Crimea security, land bridge to Donbas, and to kept all Azov sea shores.

Something they are not doing in other Ukrainian territory under their control so far.
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
Privates, Cpls, Sgts, Lts, Capts & even Majs are expendable and can be relatively easily replaced. However flag rank officers can't because of their knowledge, experience, and capabilities are greater and the more stars on their shoulder the harder they are to replace.

If soldiers are shooting their own officer, then he's done something really stupid or the discipline is bad. Remember during the Vietnam War when US grunts would frag their officers, usually in the latrines with a fragmentation grenade.

Edit: Ah that Colonel was run over. I read on Facebook last night that he was deliberately run over by his own tank driver but didn't place much credence in it so ignored it. The post said the driver ran over his legs. Wonder what he did to upset his driver so?
Yep. Even fewer Russian Generals with combat experience. About now there are probably some senior military desk jockeys getting very nervous about their next posting.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
However I don't think they are correct. I suspect the real casualty figures are 2-3 times higher, simply based on the intensity of the fighting, and the pull for additional manpower. Even at face value, this represents ~3% of committed forces and is not a small number. And so far only one major city is mostly cleared (another taken without a fight).
Although from most of the video material I saw it seems that the majority of fighting in Mariopol is done by chechen and rebel forces.

It would be interesting to see estimates for rebel losses, given that some of the most heavy fighting is done in the east I suspect rebel losses to be substantial.

Except Russia had many of these same problems in Georgia in 2008 with units out running supply lines after relatively short movements, Maybe they will learn from it but IMO it will take either a massivechange in the thinking of existing p;ersonnel or a near purge of those in government and military command to make it so seeing as bugger all was done in 14 years from their last lesson.
I think georgia overall was perceived as a success and in consequence there was no real demand for scrutiny and critique from the political establishment.

This time Putin and russia got emberassed, no Matter what they officialy gonna state. Putin will be forced to reform / purge the military.

It's important to remember that russia is basicly a mob state run by Former KGB / Kosmosol and oreganized crime. A system like that will struggle with certain problems, i.e. a lack of transparety and corruption.

Putin propably had very unrealistic expectations of the capabilities of the armed forces. How ever, given his background he does understand how this happened.


Some background on Putin and his inner circle, although Belton is making some mistakes in the book it's a good read over all.
 

QEDdeq

Member
Russian seems in their communique tell they are consistent with their aim. Thus the first stage is always securing Donbass and Crimea security


I put interfax this one, as it put Russian General Staff Rudskoi announcement. He put the first stage always been to secure Donbass, and the decision to widen theater is to in able Ukrainian ability for constant replenish forces in Donbas.

By his announcement, seems Russia will continue to force out Ukraine forces in Luhansk (almost complete), Donetsk (half way), and will going to attack Ukraine logistical line by missiles and air attack.

For me, seems Russia going to keep their gain not only in Donbas but also in Kherson and Zaporizhye Oblasts for Crimea security.

All other positions will be continue being hold for continue 'demilitarisation' by attacking and destroying Ukraine forces outside the major cities. However indication from Russian they will not move in to large cities like they do in Mariupol. Mariupol is different story seems, they need to hold it for Donbas security.

I say basically the other reason for Mariupol as they want to claim all shores of Azov sea. Afterall Russia think Azov sea is like their 'inland' sea. So I got a feeling those four Oblasts will be hold by them no matter what.

Seems after securing those four Oblasts, the rest of operation not to aim gaining more territory, but more to destroy what's left of Ukraine Army.

Add:

There's report that in Kherson, they already distributing Ruble for use on daily transaction. This's the thing that's being done in Donbas and Crimea. More sign Kherson Oblast and the adjacent Zaporizhye Oblast will be kept for Crimea security, land bridge to Donbas, and to kept all Azov sea shores.

Something they are not doing in other Ukrainian territory under their control so far.
Yes, it was clear their initial objectives were to take Kiev and install a new regime + get the strategic corridor to Crimea and the economically important remaining parts of Donbass for the separatist states.

Now they switch to: do as much damage as possible + secure the corridor to Crimea and Donbass, a more realistic plan than the previous. If achieved it would still constitute a strategic victory (obtained at high operational cost).

However the Ukrainian counterattack towards Kherson city could change the Russians plans. Key point here - the Ukrainians are not bombing the bridge. Bombing it would make it easier to take back the city since Russians wont be able to resupply it but it also means impossible to push south towards Crimea if the city is retaken. Very interesting choices there for the Ukrainians.
 

CumbrianRover

New Member
Should the 'rebels' be taking such losses and regular forces becoming disenchanted, if the plan is to fall back to 'rebel' areas, can they hold them?

The manpad air umbrella is small but as it moves East, Russian aviation will know they have a one way ticket.

This could end badly for RusMil and Putin.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
However the Ukrainian counterattack towards Kherson city could change the Russians plans.
This counter offensive from Ukraine, is there any proof they manage to regain much ground ?


Even the French map don't see that. Even the the highly publiced Ukraine counter offensive in Kiev/Kyiv also not changing much position. All the Ukrainian does is consolidating their position around Nikolayev. Which the West call it hold off Russian Progress.

Now the Russian practically say outside Donbas and Eastern theater they don't make much offensive, and more holding ground. The best equip Ukrainian units practically are the ones that Russian face in the east around Donbas. The French Map put #2 and #3 theater as the main confrontation. That's where this big JFO units of Ukrainian Army located. This is where Russian conduct much of their grinding offensive.

I don't see Ukraine Army outside area #2 and #3 in the map have enough capabilities to launch big counter offensive. For that Russia can hold ground, and wait for them to try launch counter offensive, just like they do in Kiev/Kyiv, which so far not shown much results.

Do remember Russian still have reserve in Crimea that can move if they see Ukraine amassing enough resources for Counter Offensive to Kherson. Firing some artilleries toward Kherson is not can be call counter offensive.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
From what I read in twitter and pictures, the counter-offensive are largely company level type action against Russian positions.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Should the 'rebels' be taking such losses and regular forces becoming disenchanted, if the plan is to fall back to 'rebel' areas, can they hold them?

The manpad air umbrella is small but as it moves East, Russian aviation will know they have a one way ticket.

This could end badly for RusMil and Putin.
What do you mean by holding them?

Controlling the population? Yes, I'm fairly confident that they will be able to do so.

From the limited materiale I have seen people in the Donbass seem to be mostly neutral and some are friendly towards the rebels. It's their land, a lot of the guys fighting are from places that have been or are still under ukrainian control. It's different from russian troops that have no local roots and are straight up seen as invaders.

I wouldnt call this guy a reliable or objective source but he has some interesting content from that area.

If you mean If they are capable of holding the frontlines militarily I think so too.

They have a lot of experience in this kind of warfare and the lines they are currently engaging are heavily fortified with trenches and tunnels. A lot of the pictures of Izyum and co look like ww1.

Even if the Rebels are heavily decimated (which I don't think they are yet as they are still on the offense!) the ukrainian forces would need a lot of troops and fire to overcome those lines.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
|"Russian forces are believed to be relying in part on open communication systems, for example mobile phones and analogue radios, which are easy to intercept and could give away the locations of high-ranking officers."|

It can be anti-Russia propaganda, because its a BBC-article, but if its true, than the Russian Armed Forces is really operating as an amateur 3rd World Country army.
Or they have a leaking intelligence agency.

 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Privates, Cpls, Sgts, Lts, Capts & even Majs are expendable and can be relatively easily replaced. However flag rank officers can't because of their knowledge, experience, and capabilities are greater and the more stars on their shoulder the harder they are to replace.

If soldiers are shooting their own officer, then he's done something really stupid or the discipline is bad. Remember during the Vietnam War when US grunts would frag their officers, usually in the latrines with a fragmentation grenade.

Edit: Ah that Colonel was run over. I read on Facebook last night that he was deliberately run over by his own tank driver but didn't place much credence in it so ignored it. The post said the driver ran over his legs. Wonder what he did to upset his driver so?
Probably older combat experienced senior NCOs might be more valuable than the multi star generals that developed the plans for this C-F invasion based on results so far.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The plan actually developed by military planners and the one approved by the political leadership could have been slightly different. I have no doubt that Russian military planners and intel did not underestimate the Ukrainians; the political leadership did. Also, at a strategic and operational level the actual plan may have been sound but was hampered by the fact that units did not enter combat they way should have according to doctrine and training because of highly flawed assumptions.

At a strategic level a thrust from Belarus in conjunction with ones from the east and elsewhere was sound. If units had advanced at pace which was planned the Ukrainians would at many points have been cut off, isolated and bypassed. Problem is things aren't going well at an operational and tactical level. The Russians however at various points appear to be steadily but slowing advancing.
 
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Soldier25

New Member
The destruction of the Buk air defense system of the armed forces of Ukraine by the Russian operational-tactical complex Iskander. The Iskander missile attack was carried out after receiving intelligence data from a Russian UAV patrolling an area in the Kiev region.


The army of Ukraine, actively withdrawing, mines fields and farmland, thereby endangering people's lives and jeopardizing the sowing campaign in Ukraine. More than 12,000 munitions have already been defused in the Kherson region alone. Everyday life of Russian sappers of engineering troops in Ukraine

 
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