The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In terms of logistics could Russia sustain the Eastern pockets, could they sustain the manpower attrition politically?
It depends on how intensive the fighting is, and what kind of attrition they face. Remember attrition goes both ways.

Ukraine would have a hand tied behind her back because of Belorus so could never direct full force on the enclaves, equally, she has to defend her seaboard and against forces in Moldava, finally, she'll be open to Air and Arty unless she can infiltrate Russia proper and sabotage locations.

Are we heading for stalemate or will sanctions bite so much that Russia will completely back down?
I don't believe Russia will back down.

And if Russia uses NBC on the Eurasian continent what exactly will the West do?

Only questions Mr Moderator, apologies in advance.
No need to apologize, and I honestly don't know. I don't think Russia will use CBRN, mostly because it doesn't make sense to. If they do reaction will be bad in Europe and across the world. The military gains would be marginal at best.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
A tank from ossetia, allegedly in Melitopol:


Troops from ossetia apparently joining the Rebels in the Donbass.


I'm curious when and if we will see the syrian volunteers...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The map, according to Russian officialdom.


Kiev.

Retroville shopping center, Kiev. Note the Grad missiles being dug out.


Gruesome footage of allegedly Ukrainian territorial defense shooting up the civilian car in Kiev that was shown later on the news as allegedly being shot up by Russian infiltrators. Warning footage of corpses.


Around Kiev.

A underground command point was hit and then captured by Russian forces near Kiev. They apparently took 61 prisoners. We can also see a knocked out T-72B.


Fuel storage burning near Kiev, in Kalinovka.


Ukrainian T-72AMT captured near Kiev.


Russian soldiers near Gostomel'.


An extensive Russian checkpoint near Kiev. Allegedly a system of these have been set up to improve safety of columns moving through the area.


Alleged American fighter near Brovary. Knocked out Ukrainian BRDM-2 in the background.


Georgian fighters likely near Kiev.


Foreign fighters in Irpen', possible Georgian.


The North.

Ukrainian artillery hiding inside warehouses near Chernigov hit by strikes.


Russian troops enter Slavutich, west of Chernigov. This city was initially bypassed as it didn't have any Ukrainain forces in it and is only now being occupied. This immediately sparked protests. After a meeting between Russian military authorities and the mayor, the city has been declared a demilitarized zone, Russian forces will control checkpoints around it, humanitarian aid is incoming.


Russia claims 7 downed Ukrainian UAVs near Chernigov.


Russian humanitarian aid arriving in Chernigov.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Artillery exchanges continue in Kharkov.


An artillery exchange in Kharkov. The person filming notes that artillery fired from among the city buildings, and seconds later a counter-fire landed.


Battle damage in Kharkov.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa

Combat action near Nikolaev.


Russian Kalibr launch allegedly at targets in Zhitomyr.


Air defenses firing over or near Sevastopol'. Possibly a Ukrainian UAV.


4 Cruise missiles, Odessa region.


Russian security forces operating in Kherson, allegedly against organized crime.


Russia has announced the formation of military-civilian administrations in southern Ukraine. This looks like preparations for a lengthier occupation.


Russian humanitarian aid in Chernobaevka near Kherson.


Russian troops on the streets of Kherson.


Alleged American fighters in Nikolaev.


Russian troops in Antonovka, Kherson.


LDNR Front.

Rebel forces firing ATGM at Ukrainian positions near Gorlovka.


Rebel artillery firing, Avdeevka.


Satellite imagery of battle damage in Izyum.


Battle damage in Izyum, the person filming notes the grave, and the fact that the park is full of landmines and boobytraps, warning people not to walk there.


Russian strikes on Kramatorsk.


Ukrainian company-level positions abandoned near Gorlovka. I think this is an extremely important data point. If this is indicative of Ukrainian forces pulling back from Donetsk-Gorlovka area, then Russia's attempt to encircle them has failed. They will withdraw, first to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, and eventually towards Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk-Cherkasy-Kiev. The rebels will certainly be happy, no more shelling of their cities, and they get the territory, but strategically this would be a failure. Possibly the largest of this war.


Abandoned Ukrainian positions near Rubezhnoe at the end of the video. Rubezhnoe was taken a few days back.


Rebels captured the repair-company positions of the 57th Mech Bde. I can see one 2S5, allegedly there were two more, hauled away before the photos were taken.


Very interesting rebel MT-LB variants, with BMP-1 turrets carefully installed.


Captured weapons and vehicles being handed over to the rebels. Note the UK-made Saxon armored truck, the iirc Cougar armored car, NLAW ATGMs, KrAZ bridge layer, and other armored vehicles in the background. Also an Osa and T-64BV.


Rebels operating a captured BMP-1.


Russian forces in rebel areas.


Russian humanitarian aid in Izyum.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

A column of refugees out of Mariupol' heading towards Ukrainian territory, halted at a Russia or rebel checkpoint.


A tank with a S. Ossetian flag spotted in Melitopol'.


Mariupol'.

Chechen fighters firing, Mariupol'.


Rebel fighters evacuating wounded civilians, allegedly hit by Ukrainian sniper fire.


Battle damage in Mariupol', the center of the city. The person filming gives a brief account of recent fighting and notes that Ukrainian forces have retreated into the factories. We of course already know this from all the pummeling that Azovstal' has taken.


Battle damage in Mariupol', Bakhmutskaya street (1st) and Kalmiusskaya (2nd).


Battle damage in Mariupol'. Fighting continues.


Destroyed Ukrainian BTR-3M2 in Mariupol'.


Russian soldier talking to a local in Mariupol'.


Chechen soldiers in Mariupol'.


Russian VDV in Mariupol' on an up-gunned BTR-D.


Russian troops in Mariupol'.


DNR tankers near Mariupol'.


DNR Troops of the Interior manning a checkpoint west of Mariupol'.


XO of Ukraine's 503rd Independent Marine Btln was captured trying to sneak out of Mariupol' in civilian clothes. 7 of his Marines were captured doing the same earlier. It's likely they unit has broken and is trying to sneak out of the city by mixing in with the civilians.


Khodakovskiy, commander of the DNR 11th Regiment Vostok, planning the assault together with Chechen commanders.


Impromptu cemetery, Mariupol'.


Graves and graffiti, Mariupol'.


Chechen fighters find abandoned Ukrainian uniforms.


Civilian in Mariupol' says Ukrainian fighters killed her son, wounded her grandson, stole their clothes to try to escape the city.


Satellite images of the port of Berdyansk. The port appears to be intact, you can see the partially sunken Russian ship.


The West.

In Zhitomyr the 199th training center for airmobile troops got hit.


Fuel storage facility in L'vov got hit.


Report of 6 cruise missiles hitting Vinnitsa.


Misc.

Russian Iskander launches, Ukraine. Location and context unclear.


Ukrainian Buk taken out by missile strike, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian artillery, possibly D-30, hit by a strike. Location and context unclear.


Russian Ka-52 and Mi-28 striking targets in Ukraine.


Ukrainian BMP allegedly found booby-trapped, being detonated.


Russian Pantsyr in Ukraine, location and context unclear. Note the AESA radar. In the interview the soldier mentions that they shot down 23/24 Grad rockets during a recent Ukrainian strike. It's likely this was done by multiple vehicles. Unclear if guns or missiles used.


Ukrainian news confirm losing another MiG-29, by publishing a death notice.


Assorted footage of Russian and rebel troops.


Assorted footage, Donbass.


S. Ossetian soldiers heading to Ukraine.

 

Twain

Active Member
In other News, there are conflicting reports from NY Times about kherson:


Apparently according to Pentagon sources Ukrainian forces are inside the city while others sources deny this.

_If_ that is true it signals an even bigger defeat for russia.

I may end up being proved wrong but one important thing here, they said russians don't fully control Kherson not that UA troops were present. There are vague reports of the protests there progressing beyond carrying signs to carrying guns and maybe a few molotov cocktails. If I see anything credible I'll post it. So far it is just very vague.

edit: some clarification I just found

"
  • The captured city of Kherson appears to be resisting Russian control in ways that are driving the Russian military and national guard to concentrate forces on securing it. The requirement to secure captured cities can impose a significant cost on over-stretched Russian forces and hinder their ability to conduct offensive operations.


"Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in the southern direction in the past 24 hours. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed on March 26 that the Russians have deployed all Rosgvardia units based in Crimea and/or located in Kherson, Donetsk, and Zaporizhiya Oblasts to suppress Ukrainian unrest in Kherson, Henichesk, Berdyansk, and some districts of Mariupol.[21] The General Staff further reported that the Russians are attempting to establish strict administrative and police regimes in these areas on March 26.[22] These reports appear to confirm statements by an unnamed US Department of Defense official that Kherson is no longer fully under Russian control.[23] There is no front line anywhere near Kherson City, so the assessment that the Russians no longer control it fully almost certainly rests on the existence of local Ukrainian partisan activity."


 
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kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The DND version of the MATADOR is designed (in A2 variant) to penetrate 600 mm of RHA with a CEP of 2.3 metres at a distance of 500 metres.
It's not 2.3m CEP - that would be rather bad accuracy. It has a 90% hit probability on a NATO standard target, which is a 2.3 x 2.3 m square. Actual accuracy will also depend on which sight they are delivered with - Germany for example uses a separately procured sight with its RGW90 (Hensoldt Dynahawk with integrated ballistic fire control system).

The 2650 delivered are a first batch of an overall buy of 5100 launchers.

Israel does not need to legally approve any exports or sales by DND (Germany does though of course). What Wiegold implies is that since DND is owned by Rafael and Rafael is owned by the Israeli state they as ultimate owners did not interfere with the sale and thus implicitly approved it.
 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member
An interesting article on the effects of sanctions halting tank production in Russia of one of the world's largest manufacturers
Would the effects of the chip shortage affect other weapons such as missiles etc.?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

It will have to be taken by grain of salt as large of Sea of Azov it self, as it is coming from Ukraine claim.

Chip shortage not only can affect Russia, but also China and West. There's report that Chip manufacturing will also going to be effected by minerals and basic ingredients from Russia and in more limited way from Ukraine.

However I doubt it will be this soon. Reports on how much Russian tech in defense reliance on Western components is very varied. Some reports that Russian defense industry using Russian own semiconductor, as difference with Russian commercial that heavily depending with Western and Taiwan semi conductor.

I'm more inclined to see the effect of foreign semi conductors will be effected Russian commercial production sooner, then defense ones. Will China own semi conductors can be substitute from Taiwan and South Korean semi conductors, remain to be seen.


Assessment so far more to Russian consumers/commercial market first. However again those semi conductor producers also need Russian resources.

Claim that most Russian defense industry already mostly used Rostec semi conductors, also not being verified by independent analyst.
 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member
I would agree that it is more complicated than just Russia being affected but at the same time I am reading other international sources repeating that production had halted
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
the same time I am reading other international sources repeating that production had halted
Yes, but if we see all of them, this Tank production halt based on Ukrainian claim. That's part of Western Media that take anything from Ukraine as gold information.


For Russian defense industry high tech components, personally I would like to find out more on how far the claim from Rostec can be hold. Like I said previously, I haven't found independent analyst that can confirm or dispute claim from Russian defense tech industry like Rostec. If Rostec claim is right, then most of Russian defense industry electronics including the semiconductor coming from Russia it self.

Russia will be hit by semiconductor sanction from producers in Taiwan, South Korean and Japan. Do remember that most Global semiconductor produce in East Asia, and asside those three it's including China. Thus even they can sources from China, it will still hit hard their Commercial production.

What's not clear yet, is their defense industry reliance on imported semiconductor. That's where the data and analysts varies.

Add:
Unconfirmed info in Indonesian defense forums, talk that computers that being used in Indonesian AF Flankers using components from Russia down to the semiconductor. That's why those electronics parts even the MRO done in Belarus, still has to come Russia.

If this true (as I can't find any confirmation sources), then Russian do have more or less self reliance on defense items semiconductor.

This is another claim from Rostec that aknowledge their are still depend on imported semiconductor for Civilian market, however not in military. Again no independent analyst can confirm on Russia self sufficient with military semiconductor.

 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member
Will look forward to a public repudiation of those claims of course that tank production has ceased, after all, its been a claim made in the media for more than 4 days now
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Will look forward to a public repudiation of those claims of course that tank production has ceased, after all, its been a claim made in the media for more than 4 days now
It does not require repudiation. We have an unsubstantiated claim being quoted over and over again from an inherently suspect source. This might be true. It might not be. Without further evidence it simply isn't a fact, merely a claim.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Yes, but if we see all of them, this Tank production halt based on Ukrainian claim. That's part of Western Media that take anything from Ukraine as gold information.


For Russian defense industry high tech components, personally I would like to find out more on how far the claim from Rostec can be hold. Like I said previously, I haven't found independent analyst that can confirm or dispute claim from Russian defense tech industry like Rostec. If Rostec claim is right, then most of Russian defense industry electronics including the semiconductor coming from Russia it self.

Russia will be hit by semiconductor sanction from producers in Taiwan, South Korean and Japan. Do remember that most Global semiconductor produce in East Asia, and asside those three it's including China. Thus even they can sources from China, it will still hit hard their Commercial production.

What's not clear yet, is their defense industry reliance on imported semiconductor. That's where the data and analysts varies.

Add:
Unconfirmed info in Indonesian defense forums, talk that computers that being used in Indonesian AF Flankers using components from Russia down to the semiconductor. That's why those electronics parts even the MRO done in Belarus, still has to come Russia.

If this true (as I can't find any confirmation sources), then Russian do have more or less self reliance on defense items semiconductor.

This is another claim from Rostec that aknowledge their are still depend on imported semiconductor for Civilian market, however not in military. Again no independent analyst can confirm on Russia self sufficient with military semiconductor.

I've seen speculation that Russia may have been stockpiling chips based on increased imports from China just prior to the war, but it's just that, speculation:

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
It does not require repudiation. We have an unsubstantiated claim being quoted over and over again from an inherently suspect source. This might be true. It might not be. Without further evidence it simply isn't a fact, merely a claim.
Either its in production and open or it's not which is enough repudiation it's not some small company but has a claimed 30,000 employees
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I've seen speculation that Russia may have been stockpiling chips based on increased imports from China just prior to the war, but it's just that, speculation:

Perhaps, but Taiwan IIRC produces something like 60% of the world's semiconductors, and ~90% of the advanced semiconductors (with South Korea producing the rest). If Russia were purchasing chipsets from mainland China, it would more likely be for lower capability devices or finished electronic goods, with cellular/mobile phones being a good example. Nearly half the exports in 2020 from Taiwan to mainland China were semiconductors, and in roughly the same period ~90% of semiconductors used in China were either imported, or manufactured locally by foreign suppliers.

That suggests to me that Russia would more likely than not, have not been stockpiling Chinese semiconductors.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Either its in production and open or it's not which is enough repudiation it's not some small company but has a claimed 30,000 employees
But there is little value for the company to issue any form of repudiation; repudiation which would easily be twisted as "Russian propaganda" in Western media, even if you send in TV crews to their production lines. It is just their words against news and calling each other liar and fabricating evidence.

Whether that piece of news is true or not is largely irrelevant. They are not exactly producing new tanks for the Russian Defence Ministry which are driven to the frontline. If there are any impact, it would be long term, affecting their modernisation efforts such as the T-14 which are sensor and electronics heavy. Most of the general kit (T-72s/T-80s) are hardly bristling with electronics.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Perhaps, but Taiwan IIRC produces something like 60% of the world's semiconductors, and ~90% of the advanced semiconductors (with South Korea producing the rest). If Russia were purchasing chipsets from mainland China, it would more likely be for lower capability devices or finished electronic goods, with cellular/mobile phones being a good example. Nearly half the exports in 2020 from Taiwan to mainland China were semiconductors, and in roughly the same period ~90% of semiconductors used in China were either imported, or manufactured locally by foreign suppliers.

That suggests to me that Russia would more likely than not, have not been stockpiling Chinese semiconductors.
"Advanced" semiconducter refere to the newest generations of CPU which is more a statement on the manufacturing engineering then on the capabilities of the chips.

There are propably commercial chips in some military hardware but most chips for weapons and weaponsystems will be specificly designed and given that stuff like the SU-35 is from the late 80's I doubt that it relies on 7nm chips albeit the Updates.

SMIC might not be all that sophisticated as TSMC but they are quite capable and remember that these are pure foundries. They dont design any chips but just produce based on designs.
 

QEDdeq

Member
I think what matters is to have an armored platform with a gun that shoots and don't put that platform in close quarters. Also make production and repairs as simple and less costly as possible. I think if the Russians used ww2 era T34's and KV's they would have achieved the same result as the modern tanks as long as they had air cover but they would have been much easier and less costly to replace and repair. Tanks vs tank battles seem very rare in this war, they are likely taken out by air or precise artillery strikes or by portable missiles/AT guns before they get to shoot at each-other. The best use for tanks seems to shoot HE at infantry positions from a safe distance or to engage armored cars and lighter armor. But they need a ton of support in order to perform their role and the moment they are out of support they are toast. I'm not a specialist on the issue so probably I am wrong and experts will easily contradict me but from the outside it looks like in modern warfare tanks are increasingly a liability rather than an asset. They are expensive to produce, expensive to maintain, require trained crews, require tons of logistical efforts, get easily destroyed by a competent and well equipped opponent.
 
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