The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some guys have been connecting this explosion to the Khalibr launches. According to them 4 explosions happened at the same time, one in dnipro, one in slaynsk and one in Kharkov. And they are claiming that one got intercepted in Myokolaiv. they did not release any source, so no way to verify, but if these large explosions happened in a short enough time frame, they could very well be the result of this salvo.

And also what are the Russian sources saying regarding the Irpen counter offensive? I saw videos of International soldiers near there today.
Russian sources say more positional back and forth near Irpen, with a small Ukrainian element ending up surrounded after an attempted counter-attack. However no substantiation.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Again, gratitude to @Feanor for these updates.

Ref the American guy near Kiev: I'm surprised he didn't just go ahead and say how he loved the smell of napalm in the morning.

Ref the pole and tree taping: Of course this is horrifying. But I can't stop wondering this: what's with the tape surplus in Ukraine? Normally, you can't get tape for love or money in such circumstances because everyone is taping their windows.
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New subject: A listing of today's assessments from Western "experts and officials" on the progress of the war:


These differ from the assessments seen in mainstream American media, more realistic certainly.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
That’s some crazy footage in the aftermath of 6 hours of fighting.

Just keep in mind that as I have said before, "The first casualty of war is the truth" this is quite normal and expected as both sides will use false information to their advantage and this considered a legitimate weapon of any war. It is likely that some of the truth will never surface, even after the war has finished. However some sources will get nearer to the facts than others, but you will find that even the best of them will have failings.
Agreed.

I like Xavier.
Me too!

Pallets, seems to be missing in the Russian logistics system. The root of this problem must be corruption, I suspect. We see that in a number of ASEAN armies, that lack pallets and cranes, to move bulk items.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Several thoughts.

I think that, regardless of how the fire started on the BDK in Berdyansk, we will likely see more casualties and the ship is probably unrecoverable. There were some major explosions.

Russian offensive out of Kharkov area towards Izyum clearly stalled with heavy fighting in Izyum. Win or lose there (they have apparently won), the tempo is lost. They will still likely push towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk afterwards, but if Ukrainian forces don't withdraw, it will be their own fault. All in all, LDNR territory will likely be under rebel control after all is said and done, but it would be monumental stupidity from Ukrainian command if Ukraine's forces end up in a huge pocket around Kramatorsk-Slavyansk.

Russia seems to have committed insufficient forces near Nikolaev, possible having withdrawn forces for the push into Mariupol'. The area also seems to have gotten less attention. Consequently Ukrainian forces have recovered somewhat and are hitting back. Whether this constitutes a counter-offensive or not, it's not good.

Mariupol' is almost done. Throwing Azov in there is a good decision in some ways. They are motivated fighters, and would likely not be treated well even if they did surrender. They're willing to do ugly and nasty things vis-a-vis local civilians for military gain, and their determined resistance has forced Russia to commit significant troops, and turn the city into ruins. Their behavior certainly is despicable and if the accounts we're getting are true, it likely constitutes war crimes. But militarily it works. And they're trapped. You can't prosecute the dead for warcrimes. And every Azov fighter that dies heroically in Mariupol', is one that can't ever march on Kiev to depose Zelensky, or whoever succeeds him.

Russian fighting around Kharkov, Sumy, Chernigov, and Kiev, seems to have turned to pure positional warfare. Likely Russia's goal there is to fix as many Ukrainian forces as possible, and do as much damage as possible (attrition) while the offensives continue in LDNR areas. This opens opportunities for Ukrainian counter-attacks. But those are very risky. They could cost disproportionate casualties.

The big question is, what happens after LDNR territory is in rebel hands? Will Russia stop and come to terms? Or will Russia attempt to use troops freed from Mariupol' and other rebel areas to being assaults on Kharkov, Sumy, and Chernigov?

EDIT: Follow up thoughts on the Berdyansk port debacle. The other two ships took relatively small casualties. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a double-digit casualty toll for the scuttled/sunk ship.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
These differ from the assessments seen in mainstream American media, more realistic certainly.
Question will always be is the resources on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Nikolayev are build presently for continous offensive and conquest or to hold the lines, and grinding on opportunities.

More and more indications (even from French and some western media like Financial Times) shown the decisive fighthing where Russian put their most thrust is in the East on Donbas.


This is the map from FT, sorry can not add their articles on Donbas and Eastern front assement, due to hiden under pay wall. Most of western mainstrean Media again focus much on Kyiv, however from time to time add Western Inteligence assesment that also knows the real fight is in East around Donbas. The map from FT also shown much of fighting in the area.

If Russia able to break the Ukranian main Army in that region in the East, then potentially they will move to other fronts. Until then watch what happen in the East, at least that's what I do. I do believe this is where the break or hold situation for the rest of ground war will be decided.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is making a commitment to send more weapons to Ukraine, however there might be a small issue:
He made the commitment even though his own defence minister, Anita Anand, has acknowledged publicly that the Canadian military's stock of surplus weapons available for donation is largely depleted.
Christian Leuprecht, a professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, said he doubts the country's military can contribute much more of its own equipment without undermining its own readiness.
Canada working on getting more weapons to Ukraine, Trudeau says | CBC News

According to one source, Canada has so far dispatched 4,500 M72 rocket launchers, 1,600 fragmentation vests, up to 7,500 hand grenades, $1 million to buy commercial satellite high resolution & modern imagery, machine guns, pistols, carbines; 1.5 million rounds of ammunition, sniper rifles and various related equipment worth CAD $10 million (U.S. $7.9 million); CAD $25 million (U.S. $19.9 million) in military aid that could include helmets, body armor, gas masks and night vision gear The weapons and military aid the world is giving Ukraine - POLITICO

It is rather disconcerting that Canada, the tenth biggest economy in terms of GDP, had so small stocks. Unfortunately I think the situation is similar also in many European countries.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
According to one source, Canada has so far dispatched 4,500 M72 rocket launchers, 1,600 fragmentation vests, up to 7,500 hand grenades, $1 million to buy commercial satellite high resolution & modern imagery, machine guns, pistols, carbines; 1.5 million rounds of ammunition, sniper rifles and various related equipment worth CAD $10 million (U.S. $7.9 million); CAD $25 million (U.S. $19.9 million) in military aid that could include helmets, body armor, gas masks and night vision gear The weapons and military aid the world is giving Ukraine - POLITICO
Hunting seems to be popular in Ukraine, & there are reports that hunters have been signing up to be tried out as snipers.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is making a commitment to send more weapons to Ukraine, however there might be a small issue:


Canada working on getting more weapons to Ukraine, Trudeau says | CBC News

According to one source, Canada has so far dispatched 4,500 M72 rocket launchers, 1,600 fragmentation vests, up to 7,500 hand grenades, $1 million to buy commercial satellite high resolution & modern imagery, machine guns, pistols, carbines; 1.5 million rounds of ammunition, sniper rifles and various related equipment worth CAD $10 million (U.S. $7.9 million); CAD $25 million (U.S. $19.9 million) in military aid that could include helmets, body armor, gas masks and night vision gear The weapons and military aid the world is giving Ukraine - POLITICO

It is rather disconcerting that Canada, the tenth biggest economy in terms of GDP, had so small stocks. Unfortunately I think the situation is similar also in many European countries.
The disconcerting thing is most Canadians are well aware about how ill equipped our military is but simply don’t give a $hit. Junior is at the top of the list. His attendance at the recent NATO meeting, frigging waste of government air travel.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I fail to see where I'm complaining.
Also I fail to see from where you are getting the idea I was under the impression this was "a video game"

I simply stated there is asymmetry in the reporting of losses due to the channels they are reported from. The video you postet makes the very same point:



Thats exactly what I'm saying. Oryx list gives us only a bare minimum but that doesnt tell us much about the actual number of losses. Oryx is aware of this, everyone is. So where is that a complain, where is the assumption that this is a video game where we are exposed to all the facts? I stated literaly the opposite of that and I quite honestly dont get where the misunderstanding happened.




This was a reply to this:



In addition a source:


it's been discussed on twitter by several people who have been used as source around here so I asumed it common knowledge at this point, sorry for that I'll provide links in the future.



There might be potential for misunderstandings due to the language barrier, when I say "losses" or "lost" I do include POW / WIA and not just KIA. Maybe thats unclear as "lost" / "loss" in english refers specificly to kia? In german its used for all soliders that are no longer able to activly participate in the war effort and therefore are "lost".

In general I'm just not sure how reliable those numbers are. Even "only" 15% of their troops unable to further participate in the war is a very heavy hit. I think we have to wait and see what happens on the gorund and if russia will be able to regain momentum or if ukraine will get the upper hand and start counter offensives. That tells us more about the situation then these guesstimates of KIA/WIA/POW.
I am just ensuring that where possible sources are being provided. I know that can be difficult but it has to be done in order that others can assess the quality of the information that we all are providing. In this case both Russian and Ukrainian sources have to be treated with care, and the Russian sources more so because Putin isn't even telling his own civil & military leadership the full story. That is problematic from successfully prosecuting an invasion point of view. Yes we are being somewhat sensitive about it, but because of the situation we have to be careful. That's all.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Finland, a country of 5.5 million people, and ranked 42 in the world by GDP declared yesterday they are sending more military equipment to Ukraine. This time they will not inform about what they will send, for security reasons. The Finnish government says the shipment will not impact Finnish defence capabilities.

Previously they have shipped 2,000 bulletproof vests, 2,000 composite helmets, 100 stretchers and equipment for two emergency medical care stations, 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 cartridges for the rifles, 1,500 single-shot anti-tank weapons and 70,000 combat ration packages.
Finland to send additional military equipment to Ukraine | News | Yle Uutiset

I think many countries have a lot to learn from Finland, on many different levels. Finland was one of the few countries (perhaps the only?) in Europe that had at least some in-country resources to handle the COVID-19 epidemic from day one (Finland and Coronavirus: ‘Prepper Nation of the Nordics’)

It's a small, but great country!
 

the concerned

Active Member
It seems that Biden has stated that if Russia uses chemical or other like weapons then NATO will respond. Is this the same mythical red line as Syria
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
It seems that Biden has stated that if Russia uses chemical or other like weapons then NATO will respond. Is this the same mythical red line as Syria
If Russia uses nukes then there will have to be a drastic reaction. Chemical weapons, a question mark I think. A chemical attack resulting in mass civilian casualties would likely also result in a response, significant deployment of AirPower over Ukraine perhaps.
 

phreeky

Active Member
I think that, regardless of how the fire started on the BDK in Berdyansk, we will likely see more casualties and the ship is probably unrecoverable. There were some major explosions.

The ship looked well beyond "probably unrecoverable" in the videos I've seen. In this photo the other 2 ships had put some distance between themselves and the danger, so it had been well alight for a while.

Also notice the 2nd ship doing circles. Is there a reason one would choose to do that, or is that indicate of some significant damage?

This video also provides a good time scale. It starts before the first visible explosion and goes for quite some time afterwards.


At the 10min mark you can also see something project very quickly to the left of the ship. I assume that would be some kind of munition setting off, it seems very powerful.

edit: This video also gives another view and much closer:

 
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Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Your comments on AZOV are just Russian propaganda to be honest.
I am certain @Feanor can answer more capably than I, but my two cents, for whatever it's worth:

It may seem so to someone who has not been following the situation in Ukraine for many years, as some on this thread have done, and are only following recent reports from Western media. Azov has been a real problem in Mariupol (and elsewhere) for years, and there used to be reports in the Western press (mainly British, German and Swedish mainstream news sites have popped up in my searches over the years). Here is an oldie but goodie from 2014:


There have been many disturbing reports about their behavior toward civilians during the seige of Mariupol, mainly on social media. The reports coming out on social media of course cannot be verified (a number seem quite credible, but I have seen a few I might class as propaganda). but the Greek press did report on some of this in the early days of the siege when inhabitants of Mariupol could still charge their phones and complain to the Greek embassy (there is a large ethnic Greek minority population there, and Azov is not fond of them). Here is a report from Ethnos, a Greek newspaper founded in 1913 and one of the top ten most I visited news sites in Greece (hardly some popup internet propaganda site):

Excerpt (Google translate): "According to him, Mariupol is defended by Azov's hard-line Ukrainian battalion, with which the Russians are unable to negotiate. Azov's battalion is currently mining building blocks in Mariupol. If battalion members choose to fight up to one, even millions of dead can not be ruled out. "Things are very difficult for the Greeks in the area. The Russian-speaking separatists of the eastern provinces took control of four other Greek villages. At the moment the road to Mariupol is open. I understand that the Ukrainians have chosen to fortify themselves in the cities. "What I do not understand is why they do not allow civilians to leave them", Mr. Eftychidis emphasizes...". The rest of the article is almost exclusively his strong criticism of Putin and the invasion. The gentleman being quoted is a Greek economist with years of experience working in former Soviet republics Eastern Europe.


There have been many reports of bad behavior over the years:


Excerpt: "A 2016 report by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OCHA) has accused the Azov regiment of violating international humanitarian law. The report detailed incidents over a period from November 2015-February 2016 where Azov had embedded their weapons and forces in used civilian buildings, and displaced residents after looting civilian properties. The report also accused the battalion of raping and torturing detainees in the Donbas region."

You can do your own internet search and find many more articles about Azov.

Not once have I seen anyone here claim that Azov's nasty doings justify the Russian invasion. Personally, my heart breaks for the civilians of Mariupol, mercilessly bombarded by Russians from without and allegedly grossly mistreated by Azov from within. Those who recently made it out of the city have bitterly complained in interviews on social media about both the cruel Russian bombardment and the heinous actions of Azov toward ordinary civilians. We will have to wait for verification of their accusations against Azov, and it will be awhile -- perhaps until some time after the war is over and international human rights investigators can go in and do their jobs (as was the case in Libya and some other lesser-known conflicts). Some of these claims will have to remain question marks for the time being.

There is no question that the great majority of civilian deaths in Mariupol were caused by Russian bombardment. Again, whatever nasty business Azov got up to, their bad actions do not excuse Russian bad actions. This would normally go without saying, but emotions run high at times these days.
 

Atunga

Member
It seems that Biden has stated that if Russia uses chemical or other like weapons then NATO will respond. Is this the same mythical red line as Syria
This is extremely serious and can be a major escalation in this conflict. Would Russia use chemical weapons? when and at what stage will Russia decide to use chemical agents? I don’t see them using it because it will tarnish what ever opportunity they have left to push their own narrative and can also make countries that sympathise with them turn against them..
 

wittmanace

Active Member
AZOV has been a regular unit of UKR forces for 6 years the nazi leader left 8 long years ago the fact that you ban people for not agreeing putin propaganda is despicable i will report you to the main stream media if you continue to do this putin propaganda. hundreds of children are being killed ffs and you support evil Russian propaganda shame on you.
Hi have a read about this


Also, slandering a respected member here with a history of good (and extensive) factual provision is a no-no. He hasn’t done what you falsely accuse him of, so don’t do it. It raises the question as to what you are motivated by and what you are doing.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
If Russia uses nukes then there will have to be a drastic reaction.
What does ''drastic action'' really mean? Could mean various things really. Would a tactical nuke on a non NATO country lead to military action on the part of NATO?

significant deployment of air power over Ukraine perhaps.
Whether ''significant'' or not NATO air power over the Ukraine would mean NATO and Russia are at war. Is there actually the political will within NATO for war with Russia?
 
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