The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[seaspear]

Would it have made more sense for Ukraine to have shown an interest in the Polish t72 tanks instead of the mig29s I understand that Poland will receive the new Abrams in the same configuration that Australia has ordered,

$6 billion tank deal to Poland cleared by State Department

The State Department has approved the sale of M1 Abrams tanks to Poland as regional tensions continue to rise as Russian aggression on its border with Ukraine builds.

www.defensenews.com

Poland elects to upgrade T-72 tanks | Shephard

PGZ consortium and ZM Bumar-Łabędy are to refurbish and upgrade the Polish Army’s T-72 tanks under a contract with the Polish Ministry of Defence announced …

www.shephardmedia.com

Polish off-roader shows Ukrainians how to drive captured Russian tanks

Polish off-road enthusiasts have created a video showing Ukrainians how to drive a Russian tank.

www.thefirstnews.com

 

[T.C.P]

Would it have made more sense for Ukraine to have shown an interest in the Polish t72 tanks instead of the mig29s I understand that Poland will receive the new Abrams in the same configuration that Australia has ordered,

$6 billion tank deal to Poland cleared by State Department

The State Department has approved the sale of M1 Abrams tanks to Poland as regional tensions continue to rise as Russian aggression on its border with Ukraine builds.

www.defensenews.com

Poland elects to upgrade T-72 tanks | Shephard

PGZ consortium and ZM Bumar-Łabędy are to refurbish and upgrade the Polish Army’s T-72 tanks under a contract with the Polish Ministry of Defence announced …

www.shephardmedia.com

Polish off-roader shows Ukrainians how to drive captured Russian tanks

Polish off-road enthusiasts have created a video showing Ukrainians how to drive a Russian tank.

www.thefirstnews.com

Would Ukraine be able to use those tanks at all. Russia may not have air supremacy, but they do jave air superiority. And even discounting air units, Russian units have enough ATGMS and anti tank weapons of their own, to take them out quite easily.

Not to mention, that Ukraine is not exactly luanching offensives against the russians, how would they mobilize the tanks?

 

[koxinga]

From what I can see, the usage of tanks in this conflict is largely in a support role for infantry and not tank on tank. Not combined arms stuff but mostly small unit, company up to battalion level actions. Most of the kills are due to ATGMs and I don't think the Ukrainians are short of tanks either...

 

[STURM]

In some way it's like USSR strategy when they are begin to move into German held territories.

In some way yes.The Soviets conducted much more movement and they isolated major strong points and conducted multiple operations to keep the Germans off balance and to prevent them from moving reserves.

That's why the Eastern Europe theater is much bloodier then Western theater.

Much more manpower was employed and the Soviets deployed much more artillery compared to the Western.allies.

 

[Aerojoe]

It all depends on how far West can stay away from Russian resources (and this means not only Hydrocarbon but also others, that also needed on Green energy drive). It will also depends on how far Chinese Firms can replace Western ones in Russian market.

Trade War work both ways. Something that many Western politicians and hard core media seems glossing it. However bad blood already happened in this other war. Russia and China will get closer and more integrated economically. Whatever distrust Russia and China have on each other, they also now they need to get more independent from Western stuff.

Aerospace is one thing that market see they will work more closely to provide each domestic need and also become alternative suppliers for Non Western (and allies) market. Remember the non Western market is getting bigger.

Both already developing on their own Regional Jet (Sukhoi Superjet and ARJ 21) and Medium range single aisle (MC-21 and C919). They are working on A330 and 787 competitors (CR929). All of those have options with Non Western version and Western version (should market want). There are rumours on potential working for 777 and A350 competitors based on the concept of IL-96 400M. Russia have the experience, China have the capital.

Whatever happened with the War in the Ground, the other Trade War will have more impact to Global economy for foreseeable future.

Good luck to any international airline that thinks it will attract passengers with a fleet of unproven Russian/Chinese aircraft as opposed to their competitors Airbus/Boeing alternative. Yes there’ll be markets but outside Russia and China they’ll be so small as to be insignificant. In terms of sanctions on energy this might have been a risky play for Russia especially if the medium term outcome is a Europe (especially Germany) that moves faster to alternative energy sources for climate outcomes and security.

 

[Feanor]

From what I can see, the usage of tanks in this conflict is largely in a support role for infantry and not tank on tank. Not combined arms stuff but mostly small unit, company up to battalion level actions. Most of the kills are due to ATGMs and I don't think the Ukrainians are short of tanks either...

I suspect Ukraine can't concentrate a tank btln in one place, between losses from air strikes, fuel shortages (note how many fuel storage facilities Russia has hit), and losses taken.

Good luck to any international airline that thinks it will attract passengers with a fleet of unproven Russian/Chinese aircraft as opposed to their competitors Airbus/Boeing alternative. Yes there’ll be markets but outside Russia and China they’ll be so small as to be insignificant. In terms of sanctions on energy this might have been a risky play for Russia especially if the medium term outcome is a Europe (especially Germany) that moves faster to alternative energy sources for climate outcomes and security.

This is fundamentally false. Russia will have to have airlines operating inside the country. The SSJ was at one point an unproven Russian aircraft. Today there's over 200 of them and they do quite a bit of flying inside Russia. They're not the success story they could have been, but passenger are pretty happy with them. And why would they be unproven? The likeliest candidate for a purely domestic airliner for Russia is an updated Tu-204, a very much proven aircraft.

 

[Ananda]

international airline that thinks it will attract passengers with a fleet of unproven Russian/Chinese aircraft as opposed to their competitors Airbus/Boeing alternative.

They will not attract Western Airlines, however for Non Western market, well don't be that sure. It will take time for them to build MRO value chains, but it is doable. If the prices and cost of maintenance right, it can happen as time progressing.

Yes there’ll be markets but outside Russia and China they’ll be so small as to be insignificant.

Airliners manufacturing is long haul game. The African market for example, is small right now. However all Airlines analyst agree it will be increase exponantialy in foreseable future. This the region that both China and Russia have enough influences, and where many looking for Western alternatives.

Getting China market is practically taking close 20% of Global Airlines growth. Plus Russia and other smaller Non Western market, they practically can get 20-25% of Global market. That's enough to make them as real alternative for Airbus and Boeing.

Reputation need time to build, however looking on how the Chinese work right now, don't discount them.

In terms of sanctions on energy this might have been a risky play for Russia especially if the medium term outcome is a Europe (especially Germany) that moves faster to alternative energy sources for climate outcomes and security.

How long they will take ? Even the best snenario will take one decades and realistically two decades. This is with massive Investment and the wilingness to rebuild Nuclear plant. It is been discussed much on alternative energy thread in this forum.

In the mean time, West still need Hydrocarbon. Can Euro Zone especially replace Russian Hydrocarbon? Trade War work both ways.

Add:

Air safety incidents for Ilyushin Il-96

Discover air safety incidents, accidents and plane crashes for the aircraft type Ilyushin Il-96. Learn more about the safety record for Ilyushin Il-96

www.aeroinside.com

Put example on IL-96 incidents record. Even though the fleet are small, however compared to it's contemporary rival A340, percentage wise it is not Bad.

I put IL-96 as example because it is practically all Russian Tech and already flying for long period. More importantly no fatal accident so far. Cubana already using them for 12 hrs cross Atlantic routes for long time. No problem on that.

Don't discount Russian and Chinese JV in future can not build proven aircraft. For one thing Russian already build proven Airliners.

Problem with IL-96 is just what faces A340. Long Haul flight with four enggine, is eclipsed by Twin engine. However this Trade War already make China and Russia speed up on the need to get their own alternatives. Some of Non Western market also want that.

 

[Aerojoe]

They will not attract Western Airlines, however for Non Western market, well don't be that sure. It will take time for them to build MRO value chains, but it is doable. If the prices and cost of maintenance right, it can happen as time progressing.



Airliners manufacturing is long haul game. The African market for example, is small right now. However all Airlines analyst agree it will be increase exponantialy in foreseable future. This the region that both China and Russia have enough influences, and where many looking for Western alternatives.

Getting China market is practically taking close 20% of Global Airlines growth. Plus Russia and other smaller Non Western market, they practically can get 20-25% of Global market. That's enough to make them as real alternative for Airbus and Boeing.

Reputation need time to build, however looking on how the Chinese work right now, don't discount them.



How long they will take ? Even the best snenario will take one decades and realistically two decades. This is with massive Investment and the wilingness to rebuild Nuclear plant. It is been discussed much on alternative energy thread in this forum.

In the mean time, West still need Hydrocarbon. Can Euro Zone especially replace Russian Hydrocarbon? Trade War work both ways.

You seem to have missed my point due to your fixation on a simplistic view of trade going both ways but no acknowledgement of flows, substitution, market elasticity etc. For energy even if it takes the EU a decade that change doesn’t all occur in the tenth year and the events of the last three weeks mean it’s even more likely to front load. Substitution especially will have been given a huge boost by events of last month. Yes, Germany can’t afford to simply turn off the gas tap but it can turn it down hard going into summer and not turn it fully back on next winter due to substitution. Where then is Russia’s market in the absence of alternative infrastructure to transport to other markets.

 

[Aerojoe]

They will not attract Western Airlines, however for Non Western market, well don't be that sure. It will take time for them to build MRO value chains, but it is doable. If the prices and cost of maintenance right, it can happen as time progressing.



Airliners manufacturing is long haul game. The African market for example, is small right now. However all Airlines analyst agree it will be increase exponantialy in foreseable future. This the region that both China and Russia have enough influences, and where many looking for Western alternatives.

Getting China market is practically taking close 20% of Global Airlines growth. Plus Russia and other smaller Non Western market, they practically can get 20-25% of Global market. That's enough to make them as real alternative for Airbus and Boeing.

Reputation need time to build, however looking on how the Chinese work right now, don't discount them.



How long they will take ? Even the best snenario will take one decades and realistically two decades. This is with massive Investment and the wilingness to rebuild Nuclear plant. It is been discussed much on alternative energy thread in this forum.

In the mean time, West still need Hydrocarbon. Can Euro Zone especially replace Russian Hydrocarbon? Trade War work both ways.

Add:

Air safety incidents for Ilyushin Il-96

Discover air safety incidents, accidents and plane crashes for the aircraft type Ilyushin Il-96. Learn more about the safety record for Ilyushin Il-96

www.aeroinside.com

Put example on IL-96 incidents record. Even though the fleet are small, however compared to it's contemporary rival A340, percentage wise it is not Bad.

I put IL-96 as example because it is practically all Russian Tech and already flying for long period. More importantly no fatal accident so far. Cubana already using them for 12 hrs cross Atlantic routes for long time. No problem on that.

Don't discount Russian and Chinese JV in future can not build proven aircraft. For one thing Russian already build proven Airliners.

Problem with IL-96 is just what faces A340. Long Haul flight with four enggine, is eclipsed by Twin engine. However this Trade War already make China and Russia speed up on the need to get their own alternatives. Some of Non Western market also want that.

If the IL-96 being flown by Cubana is your evidence there’s clearly no point continuing down this rabbit hole.
The simple reality is, as others have so eloquently articulated, this war and the sanctions applied have the real likelihood of weakening not strengthening Russia’s ability to be a global player - it will be China that gains

 

[Atunga]

He's talked many times about how he does it on his twitter account. His list is pretty darn accurate. it is missing quite a few losses because every loss doesn't get reported.

He uses pictures or video that are sent to him, via telegram, twitter etc. of each individual loss. he individually identifies each loss by visual verification, any identifying features, location data if available etc. He compares each picture to all previous pictures of that type of equipment. I also know from talking to him if anyone finds any duplicates, he removes the duplicate. (which is why from time to time his count goes down by one or two. If you are going to call him unreliable at least provide some evidence.

This is totally not reliable, he has no evidence, a simple question, with all these Russian losses and KIA, how come Ukrainian cities still surrounded and the Russians still marching on?

 

[Feanor]

This is totally not reliable, he has no evidence, a simple question, with all these Russian losses and KIA, how come Ukrainian cities still surrounded and the Russians still marching on?

Oryx blog is the most reliable source available. For each vehicle he provides the image that he uses as evidence. You're welcome to examine them yourself. Not all can be 100% verified, and he's not 100% accurate (he was just about 100% accurate at the start). But he's as close as it gets. You're welcome to question particular points, but if you want to cast doubt upon the order of magnitude of his figures, you're going to have to do some work disproving him. He has done his work and provided evidence. Claiming the opposite requires argument and evidence. And the argument will have to be aimed at the evidence.

 

[Atunga]

In the near term, you are absolutely right and IMHO the roughly 7000 KIA estimates are low when you consider these kind of known equipment losses. The question is will it be enough to change Putin's intentions? I expect lot of nuclear saber rattling in the next few weeks if things don't turn around dramatically in the near future.

Long term, Russia is going to be a decade or more reforming/repairing the damage to their military.

This is absolute propaganda.. the numbers of KIA and equipment losses your calling is enough to change the tide of the war against Russia, the numbers are heavily overestimated, Russia has not lost up to 20% of the numbers your calling, if Russia lost anything near those numbers, the Ukrainian military will be finished by now

@Atunga

Suggest you take a deep breath and at least consider some of the responses before declaring any information that is at odds with your view to be propaganda. @Feanor has responded to your outburst on this issue and I suggest you consider his response as it is well measured and he provides justification. If you wish to claim the information is false you need to provide some evidence to prove this. Getting irritated at other posters does no achieve anything.

alexsa

 

[Ananda]

seem to have missed my point due to your fixation on a simplistic view of trade going both ways but no acknowledgement of flows, substitution, market elasticity etc.

No, Trade war work both way is not simplistic view, it is the fact. On other thread I already talk other factors that playing in the market.

Question remain, can Eurozone find alternatives from Russian Hydrocarbon. While Eurozone playing chummy with Russian hydrocarbon, other producers has already find other markets.

The point is between period of changing from hydrocarbon, where the Eurozone can find the alternatives suppliers of hydrocarbon? If that easy it will not create problem in the market right now. Eurozone will move from Russian Hydrocarbon, Russian has to find other market in long run. I have put it in other thread. No doubt about that.

However for time being can Eurozone find other sources to replace Russian other market ? Remember Russian also sit on large other resources, that will still be needed even in Green Economy.

You are the one that overestimating Eurozone capabilities for switching energy. You are not factoring how they are going to adjust in this decade years. That's over simplyfication.

IL-96 being flown by Cubana is your evidence there’s

Well I see no point on discussion with you either. My post is to answer your claim that Russian and Chinese effort to build Boeing and Airbus competitors not working, cause their products is unproven.

IL-96 is an example Russian can make Proven Airliners. Yes China will be the biggest winner in this trade war between Russia and West. I already put it in other thread. Your post on their inability to build proven aircraft is the over simplification.

I already said it will take time for both of them to be real competitors to Airbus and Boeing. However does not mean they can not make proven airliners.

 

[Feanor]

Brief but significant update, Russia is taping manpower reserves wherever possible. A thousand volunteers from Chechnya are heading to the front, and an undisclosed number from South Ossetia. I wouldn't be surprised to see them used for rear security duties, to free up professionals for offensive operations.

Kadyrov_95

Помощник Главы Чеченской Республики по силовому блоку, мой дорогой БРАТ Апты Алаудинов, во главе тысячи добровольцев из Чеченской Республики отправляется для участия в спецоперации по денацификации и демилитаризации Украины. Апты Аронович опытный боец, который не раз доказывал свою высокую...

t.me

Maybe not that easy

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504537204370329603

I suspect this won't work in the medium term, only in the short term. Within a few weeks it should become obvious how many 22160s are active, and if any show up with damage on them. It is a tad disappointing in terms of not being able to confirm so easily now, but the ships still have names, nailed to the side in big letter. If a 22160 took Grad fire, I don't think they will be able to conceal it long term.

 

[Atunga]

This is absolute propaganda.. the numbers of KIA and equipment losses your calling is enough to change the tide of the war against Russia, the numbers are heavily overestimated, Russia has not lost up to 20% of the numbers your calling, if Russia lost anything near those numbers, the Ukrainian military will be finished by now

@Atunga

Suggest you take a deep breath and at least consider some of the responses before declaring any information that is at odds with your view to be propaganda. @Feanor has responded to your outburst on this issue and I suggest you consider his response as it is well measured and he provides justification. If you wish to claim the information is false you need to provide some evidence to prove this. Getting irritated at other posters does no achieve anything.

alexsa

Apologies, I will correct my mistakes

 

[GermanHerman]

Possibly the KIA numbers will be the biggest problem for Russia. It won’t be easy explaining why thousands of young Russian men are dying in the Ukraine fighting phantom Nazi hordes and people at home are suffering brutal sanctions despite the righteous intervention (according to Putin).

I don't think so.

Ukrainiane propaganda on social media went a little too far. There are a lot of very disturbing pictures and videos ranging from people posing with dead russian soldiers in a mocking way to actualy violating them in the most humiliating / disturbing ways.

The fact that some of the dead soliders are identified and pictures of them beeing send to their families falls in line with the videos we See of ukrianians making POW's call their families. But that could of cause be russian Propaganda, we dont know who is sending these pictures, we know how ever who Takes them.

These pictures go a long way in mobilizing a population and convince them Putin was right about ukriane.

He's talked many times about how he does it on his twitter account. His list is pretty darn accurate. it is missing quite a few losses because every loss doesn't get reported.

He uses pictures or video that are sent to him, via telegram, twitter etc. of each individual loss. he individually identifies each loss by visual verification, any identifying features, location data if available etc. He compares each picture to all previous pictures of that type of equipment. I also know from talking to him if anyone finds any duplicates, he removes the duplicate. (which is why from time to time his count goes down by one or two. If you are going to call him unreliable at least provide some evidence.

It's clear from his twitter that he is biased.
So that alone should always be considered to be a red flag when it comes to reliability.

Then there comes the issue of sources. He provides pictures, but these alone dont actualy tell you much in a lot of instances:

https://i.postimg.cc/PfvwgJQJ/4f22.png

https://i.postimg.cc/B63LSk6q/431v.png

How are you able to tell If those were russian or ukrainian losses without any further Info? There is a ton of such losses without context.

The reliability of this list is based on trust into the source (oryx), it's not holding up to scientific (historical) standards by any mean.

How ever it of cause is still impressive and as he has a good track record I dont doubt oryx. How ever, there is some room to do so If one is so inclined and has a massive amount of free time to sort through his list.

Good luck to any international airline that thinks it will attract passengers with a fleet of unproven Russian/Chinese aircraft as opposed to their competitors Airbus/Boeing alternative.

You mean trustworthy alternatives like the Boeing 737 Max?

 

[STURM]

Not to mention, that Ukraine is not exactly luanching offensives against the russians, how would they mobilize the tanks?

By using them for offensive tactical.or operational level attacks which are part of a defensive strategy/approach.

 

[OPSSG]

Apologies, I will correct my mistakes

One more outburst from you and you will be gone for good — we have given you multiple prior warnings. No reply to this is necessary.

 

[Aerojoe]

I suspect Ukraine can't concentrate a tank btln in one place, between losses from air strikes, fuel shortages (note how many fuel storage facilities Russia has hit), and losses taken.



This is fundamentally false. Russia will have to have airlines operating inside the country. The SSJ was at one point an unproven Russian aircraft. Today there's over 200 of them and they do quite a bit of flying inside Russia. They're not the success story they could have been, but passenger are pretty happy with them. And why would they be unproven? The likeliest candidate for a purely domestic airliner for Russia is an updated Tu-204, a very much proven aircraft.

Feanor I don’t disagree with you. My point in response to was that the international market for Russian pax aircraft was likely small.

I don't think so.

Ukrainiane propaganda on social media went a little too far. There are a lot of very disturbing pictures and videos ranging from people posing with dead russian soldiers in a mocking way to actualy violating them in the most humiliating / disturbing ways.

The fact that some of the dead soliders are identified and pictures of them beeing send to their families falls in line with the videos we See of ukrianians making POW's call their families. But that could of cause be russian Propaganda, we dont know who is sending these pictures, we know how ever who Takes them.

These pictures go a long way in mobilizing a population and convince them Putin was right about ukriane.



It's clear from his twitter that he is biased.
So that alone should always be considered to be a red flag when it comes to reliability.

Then there comes the issue of sources. He provides pictures, but these alone dont actualy tell you much in a lot of instances:

https://i.postimg.cc/PfvwgJQJ/4f22.png

https://i.postimg.cc/B63LSk6q/431v.png

How are you able to tell If those were russian or ukrainian losses without any further Info? There is a ton of such losses without context.

The reliability of this list is based on trust into the source (oryx), it's not holding up to scientific (historical) standards by any mean.

How ever it of cause is still impressive and as he has a good track record I dont doubt oryx. How ever, there is some room to do so If one is so inclined and has a massive amount of free time to sort through his list.




You mean trustworthy alternatives like the Boeing 737 Max?

No. More the existing duopoly that market economics reinforces - development costs not to mention existing sunk costs by airlines in training and pilot certification - means a third player ever taking any significant share outside of a home market is unlikely.

 

[T.C.P]

By using them for offensive tactical.or operational level attacks which are part of a defensive strategy/approach.

I have seen very little evidence of Ukrainaian usage of tanks in the last 10 or so days. Would tanks be a good purchase for Ukraine righ now? Russia should have enough Kornets with their forces to make short work of any tank push Ukraine wants to pull off.

I am no defense expert, but is Ukraine in a position to make to quick counter offensives with significant tank numbers?