The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[cdxbow]

Some possible movement in peace negotiations according to FT Ukraine and Russia explore neutrality plan in peace talks | Financial Times (ft.com)
'The biggest sticking point remains Russia’s demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region.'

At this point in time I don't think Ukraine will buy this, too much has been lost and too many killed.
Ukraine: Drone footage shows destruction to Mariupol as Russian forces continue bombardment - YouTube

The Russians don't seem to making any compromises, the Ukraine most of them. I suspect the war will have to continue for longer before both sides are willing to compromise.

I have to wonder what sort of security guarantees the Ukraine can ask for and how they would be implemented. They can't just trust Mr Putin, he has proven to be utterly duplicitous.

 

[danonz]

video of ka-52 and mi-28
can anyone explain the high angle of attack for the rockets they fire or is it just the angle of the camera ?

Intel Slava Z

Ka-52 and Mi-28n working near Popasnaya.

t.me

 

[cdxbow]

Is the PRC having a bet each way, being two faced or perhaps seeing which way the wind is blowing?

"China and Ukraine are strategic partners, this year marks 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between our countries. China is a friendly country for the Ukrainian people. As ambassador, I can responsibly say that China will forever be a good force for Ukraine, both economically and politically. We will always respect your state, we will develop relationships based on equality and mutual benefits. We will respect the path chosen by the Ukrainians, because this is the sovereign right of every nation," the Ambassador of the People's Republic of China to Ukraine, Fan Xianrong, said during a meeting at the Regional Military Administration in Lviv,

Liz Sly on Twitter: "There couldn’t be a more powerful sign of which way the wind is blowing in Ukraine. China meeting with Ukraine officials in Lviv. “We have seen how great the unity of the Ukrainian people is” the Chinese ambassador is quoted as saying" / Twitter

 

[koxinga]

I have to wonder what sort of security guarantees the Ukraine can ask for and how they would be implemented. They can't just trust Mr Putin, he has proven to be utterly duplicitous.

Ukraine and Russia are positioning themselves for a negotiated settlement that is face-saving for both parties. In the case of Ukraine, significant investments in defense and implicit support by the West means Russia has less military leverage over the country. Sure, Russia will always be a threat but the cost of another round of war would likely deter direct military action. Putin can be duplicitious but it is something even he can't change.

For Russia and Putin, they will definitely need declare some form of "victory" to justify the death toil or sanction. That could be a statement that Ukraine will not be joining NATO, and the DNR being recongized etc for him to be able to step away.

The next few days will see more heavy fighting as both sides want to consolidate and strengthen their bargaining positions. Could be why the Ukrainians have launched a counter offensive, since the Russians are stretched, hitting them from the West would be a logical step, especially the forces at Kyiv. It would relief the pressure and give Ukraine a symbolic victory.

 

[Señor Pomidor]

Russians have bombed a theater working as a shelter killing multiple people including kids according to the city council of Mariupol.

Mariupol theater: Russians bomb building where hundreds had taken refuge, officials say - CNN

This tweet is from 4 days ago.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502875319170387968

Do you have any direct sources that can provide some light to this event?

 

[Twain]

I can only speak of this from an Asian perspective, which Ananda is speaking of. It is very common (at least in the circles I have) to have a general distrust of statements that have an value statements around right or wrong. The general sentiment is the West will always come up with some highfalutin principles to justify actions. Probably why the non-aligned movement started here. Most asean statements are carefully calibrate to avoid such statements, as an example.

I'm going to make one last post on this subject and them I am done with it, it's not going to go anywhere and it will just derail the thread.

By distrusting any statement with values attached to it, you are in fact making a value statement of your own, Because of this, if your are viewing what is a western/european war through an asian lens and really won't comprehend what it is really all about.

 

[cdxbow]

Ukraine and Russia are positioning themselves for a negotiated settlement that is face-saving for both parties. In the case of Ukraine, significant investments in defense and implicit support by the West means Russia has less military leverage over the country. Sure, Russia will always be a threat but the cost of another round of war would likely deter direct military action. Putin can be duplicitious but it is something even he can't change.

For Russia and Putin, they will definitely need declare some form of "victory" to justify the death toil or sanction. That could be a statement that Ukraine will not be joining NATO, and the DNR being recongized etc for him to be able to step away.

The next few days will see more heavy fighting as both sides want to consolidate and strengthen their bargaining positions. Could be why the Ukrainians have launched a counter offensive, since the Russians are stretched, hitting them from the West would be a logical step, especially the forces at Kyiv. It would relief the pressure and give Ukraine a symbolic victory.

I think you sum it up well. I suspect the biggest security guarantee will be a Ukraine that is well armed with modern weapons and resolve. After the mauling the Russians have taken I don't think the Master Strategist will have another nibble in his lifetime. Various links to the West but not part of NATO seems certain, which will give them access to weapons, information, tech etc, which will help their security.

I don't think Mr Putin is going to get his wish of demilitarisation, in fact the opposite is likely to occur. Nor is he going to get his 'de-Nazification', which everyone reads as change to a puppet government of his choice. I expect what happens to Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk will be the most difficult issues to resolve in a negotiated settlement.

Another issue, what happens to sanctions?

Added - A tweet, for what its worth suggesting the parties are getting close to agreement max seddon on Twitter: "NEW: Details on the possible Russia-Ukraine deal – Russia ceases fire and withdraws – Ukrainian "neutrality" without Nato – Kyiv keeps its army but can't host foreign bases – Russian gets legal status in Ukraine with @ArashMassoudi and Roman Olearchyk https://t.co/vPMUR0dekS" / Twitter

From that It isn't clear to me what happens to Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk

 

[Boatteacher]

Another issue, what happens to sanctions?


From that It isn't clear to me what happens to Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk

Unless Russia walks away without any gain, then sanctions would need to be maintained least the end result is they are rewarded for their invasion of another soverign country.
Ukarine might be forced to negotiate a comprimise and no one can complain if they decide it is in their national interest to do so.
But the rest of the world has its own objectives; namely to discourage furure attempts to change to national borders or impose upon the will of others with violence.

 

[koxinga]

Another issue, what happens to sanctions?

Good question. From what I can read, the negotiations are bilateral in nature, even if it was facilitated by third countries like Turkey. Since the sanctions were imposed unilaterally at a bloc (EU) and national (US, UK, Canada) level, it will stay for now. Can't see how these countries will roll back since the objectives were to punish Russia for the act of invasion.. Maybe if Putin leaves the stage, there might be room for discussion.

 

[Ananda]

Another issue, what happens to sanctions?

It all depends on how far West can stay away from Russian resources (and this means not only Hydrocarbon but also others, that also needed on Green energy drive). It will also depends on how far Chinese Firms can replace Western ones in Russian market.

Trade War work both ways. Something that many Western politicians and hard core media seems glossing it. However bad blood already happened in this other war. Russia and China will get closer and more integrated economically. Whatever distrust Russia and China have on each other, they also now they need to get more independent from Western stuff.

Aerospace is one thing that market see they will work more closely to provide each domestic need and also become alternative suppliers for Non Western (and allies) market. Remember the non Western market is getting bigger.

Both already developing on their own Regional Jet (Sukhoi Superjet and ARJ 21) and Medium range single aisle (MC-21 and C919). They are working on A330 and 787 competitors (CR929). All of those have options with Non Western version and Western version (should market want). There are rumours on potential working for 777 and A350 competitors based on the concept of IL-96 400M. Russia have the experience, China have the capital.

Whatever happened with the War in the Ground, the other Trade War will have more impact to Global economy for foreseeable future.

 

[cdxbow]

.....Trade War work both ways. Something that many Western politicians and hard core media seems glossing it. However bad blood already happened in this other war. Russia and China will get closer and more integrated economically. Whatever distrust Russia and China have on each other, they also now they need to get more independent from Western stuff.

I remember someone saying 'Trade wars are easy to win'.
I agree they do work both ways. Mr Xi showed that when he shot off his foot banning coal from Oz and contributed to the energy problems the PRC faced.
I also think politicians forget they are a significant step up along the spectrum of conflict.

 

[Ananda]

also think politicians forget they are a significant step up along the spectrum of conflict.

Yes, that's why I wrote why the market always jittery whenever Politicians enforce their will on the Market. Most of the times, they always think only on short term consequences.

From that It isn't clear to me what happens to Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk

The last one, Russian get legal status I think related to that. Whether this means wide range autonomy in Donetsk and Luhansk for Russian ethnic and Ukraine offcially ceding Crimea, that's I believe the details that going to be a problem. The devil always in details.

Add:
When Xi banning OZ coals, I remember my clients in Indonesian coal Industry can't hide their Glee. Their glee simply shown what they're thinking, we can charge China with more premium.

Market will always punish politicians, if their decision is not work on market mechanism.

 

[hauritz]

After the Polish, Czech and Slovak PMs met in the Ukraine I find myself wondering whether that might be a better defence pact arrangement for those countries than NATO. From what I have seen the Russians are not the military threat, or at least not the conventional military threat, that they were once perceived as. It is quite possible that the former Soviet block countries could better take care of their own security needs than they could with NATO.

If the Ukraine were to fall then Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova would all find themselves buffered up against a newly invigorated Russian state. To my mind that would be enough for Poland and a number of other countries in that region to commit troops to Ukraine's defence ... if it weren't for NATO.

As things stand Poland and other NATO aligned countries are pretty much hamstrung by that alliance and are forced to sit on the side line as their own strategic futures are being fought out by the Russians and Ukrainians.

 

[Ananda]

myself wondering whether that might be a better defence pact arrangement for those countries than NATO

If they are doing something in the ground outside NATO, then Putin have 'legal' rights to engage them without dragging in NATO. Those countries only security guarantee is NATO. Your scenario can be Putin dream. Despite all the talk on Western media and pundits on Russian problem, most of them agree that Russia still hold considerable conventional force. In short Russia has not committing all, perhaps they are saving on potential conflict with NATO.

US and Western Euro will not allowed them to do something independent from NATO that can dragging NATO. Either you're in with NATO (thus follow NATO coordination) or your out.

 

[ngatimozart]

I suspect no real negotiations are possible. The positions apear unreconcilable and the only question is whether Ukrainian leadership will bow to the pressure of military action and border-line capitulate.



I'm assuming you're referring to Operation Deliberate Force. And yes that one certainly didn't help (though again it wasn't so much the fact that action was taken, rather the nature of it, NATO essentially picked sides). But what really sealed the deal was the '99 campaign against Yugoslav forces during the Kosovo War.

Are you talking Yugoslav or Serbian? Considering the ethnic cleansing that the Serbs and Bosnian Serbs embarked on I believe that NATO had every right to be involved. They committed crimes against humanity and to this day refuse to admit to any responsibility. No one covered themselves in any glory there, especially the Dutch peacekeepers, but the Bosnia Serbs and the Serbian nation do have war crimes to answer for. IIRC there were Russian peacekeepers present as well. I understand your loyalty to your motherland but at the same time don't let that loyalty blind you.

 

[Feanor]

Are you talking Yugoslav or Serbian? Considering the ethnic cleansing that the Serbs and Bosnian Serbs embarked on I believe that NATO had every right to be involved. They committed crimes against humanity and to this day refuse to admit to any responsibility. No one covered themselves in any glory there, especially the Dutch peacekeepers, but the Bosnia Serbs and the Serbian nation do have war crimes to answer for. IIRC there were Russian peacekeepers present as well. I understand your loyalty to your motherland but at the same time don't let that loyalty blind you.

There were plenty of atrocities committed by the other parties too. However the conflict was selectively painted as a one-sided collection of warcrimes by the Serbs. Also, I'm referring to the fact that Serbia and Montenegro maintained a united country called the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia until the early 2000's. The SFRY became the FRY. Again it's not that someone shouldn't have gotten involved, it's what form that involvement took. The de-facto ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Kosovo following the arrival of NATO, the failure to investigate crimes against them, while focusing all the attention on Yugoslav generals. I recommend "To Kill a Nation" by Michael Parenti, if you want something succinct.

EDIT: Just for the record, Yugoslavia was never my country in any way shape or form...

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

From which i remember the breakup of Yugoslavia and the wars during that period was from 1991-1995, including the massacre in Sebrenica, where Dutchbat wasn't able to protect the local population and themselves, because of the lack of (air) support.

Operation Allied Force was in 1999, with the purpose to separate Kosovo from Serbia. But i think we are now getting out of topic.

 

[koxinga]

I'm going to make one last post on this subject and them I am done with it, it's not going to go anywhere and it will just derail the thread.

By distrusting any statement with values attached to it, you are in fact making a value statement of your own, Because of this, if your are viewing what is a western/european war through an asian lens and really won't comprehend what it is really all about.

The value statement is... the distrust of binary value statements. Anyway, it was not meant to derail this threat but to explain how people in different parts of the see things.

Singapore's Straits Times has an article today that was discussing this. For a country that unequivocally condemned Russia's invasion, the average people of the street remains either ignorant or skeptical. The people I've seen who fall for Putin propoganda are either pro China, or hold a deep fear of white people and cling on to an vague notion of "asian values"

Debate rages online over Singapore's stance against Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Observers say it would not be surprising if actors opposed to Singapore's stance were attempting to undermine it. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[Rob c]

I caught an interesting article on the radio news at midday, but as I was driving at the time I did not get every word. The statement sad that the UN World Court ( or similar ) Had ruled that the Russian Invasion of Ukraine was illegal and that they must stop immediately. It also said that the court had rejected the Russian's justification for the invasion. Now as this is just what I heard over the radio I cannot provide any link or confirmation. If true the chances of Putin stopping are about as high as me winning powerball in our local lotto. I could give him a way out at a later date However it would if true give Ukraine more of negotiating clout .

 

[koxinga]

I caught an interesting article on the radio news at midday, but as I was driving at the time I did not get every word. The statement sad that the UN World Court ( or similar ) Had ruled that the Russian Invasion of Ukraine was illegal and that they must stop immediately. It also said that the court had rejected the Russian's justification for the invasion. Now as this is just what I heard over the radio I cannot provide any link or confirmation. If true the chances of Putin stopping are about as high as me winning powerball in our local lotto. I could give him a way out at a later date However it would if true give Ukraine more of negotiating clout .

It is ICJ. But their opinion is the least of Putin's concerns and will have zero bearing on negotiations.

International Court orders Russia to ‘immediately suspend’ military operations in Ukraine

Russia must immediately suspend military operations in Ukraine, the UN International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled on Wednesday, in The Hague.

news.un.org