Russia - General Discussion.

[ngatimozart]

A lot has been written about how Putin has destroyed all internal opposition to him. But I can't help wondering if an alliance of sorts between the oligarchs, military and people might throw him out eventually. The oligarchs lose too much money, the army becomes sick of the war and the people fed up with falling living standards. Might finally create enough critical mass to successfully depose him. Thoughts?

@ngatimozart that would require Russia rethink its self concept as an independent center of power in a multipolar world. I'm not saying Brzezinski is wrong, but I also think he asks too much of Russian leadership. Changing one's mind, especially on such issues, is the most difficult thing to do.

Additionally, I'm not sure I see a place for Russia in the West. Russia's former competitive advantages have declined, whether it's STEM, R&D, heavy industry, etc. There would be relatively little demand in the West for what Russia used to be good because the market is already divvied up, so to speak. Plus Russia did it's best to destroy the good parts of its Soviet inheritance.

That being said, I do see value in the argument that a peaceful and prosperous Europe requires a peaceful and prosperous Russia. I believe this was the exact argument made with respect to rebuilding Germany in the late 40s. Though I think both Russia and the West haven't completely grasped this.

I agree with your proposition about Russia having to change its mindset and I think that it would have struggled very much with the concept of redefining and reconstructing its worldview. I think Brzezinski was correct WRT to how NATO and the then EEC should've approached Russia, and something like the Marshall Plan of the late 1940s may have made all the difference. However it would have to have been approached carefully and with quite a bit of tact because the Russians are a proud people with a long history. The worst thing would have been Americans going in there fervently proselytizing their form of democracy, "culture" and way of life. They do have a habit of pursuing it with a religious zealotry. They just can't help themselves. It's just like the Poms with cricket and Kiwis with rugby.

 

[ngatimozart]

This article suggests some possible options that Putin may select. Based on recent military activity, it seems ramping up the violence is already underway. If this fails, the other options become more likely and if he feels vulnerable perhaps the more extreme options. The private thoughts of the inner circle, very interesting to know.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/03/02/ukraine_what_are_putins_options_now_819558.html

IMHO I think that Putin is a narcissist, at the very least, and as such he won't admit to making a mistake. It will always be somebody else's fault - never his. That's why he and Trump probably got on because they fed off each other. It maybe why he and Xi appear to get on as well. So I am half expecting him to double down because his ego won't let him be seen as being weak. There is also his survival instinct because apparently in Russian politics it's like a prison yard; dog eat dog and only the strongest survive. This Australian 60 Minutes video explains a bit about Putin.

A DW video interview with a nuclear weapons expert on Putin's nuclear threat.

A video discussing the possibility that a Ukrainian insurgency could result in the downfall of Putin. It's 73 minutes long and I haven't watched it yet.

 

[JGCAC]

I agree with your proposition about Russia having to change its mindset and I think that it would have struggled very much with the concept of redefining and reconstructing its worldview. I think Brzezinski was correct WRT to how NATO and the then EEC should've approached Russia, and something like the Marshall Plan of the late 1940s may have made all the difference. However it would have to have been approached carefully and with quite a bit of tact because the Russians are a proud people with a long history. The worst thing would have been Americans going in there fervently proselytizing their form of democracy, "culture" and way of life. They do have a habit of pursuing it with a religious zealotry. They just can't help themselves. It's just like the Poms with cricket and Kiwis with rugby.

Well said. I think American democratic messianism must be acknowledged as a contributing factor in the various Eastern European crises.

 

[Vivendi]

Sweden reported yesterday that 4 Russian planes violated Swedish airspace: 2 Su-27 and 2 Su-24. They had flown "a few kilometers" into Swedish airspace and were intercepted by Swedish JAS-39 Gripen.

Four Russian fighter jets violate Swedish airspace over Baltic Sea (thelocal.se)

Russian fighter jets hardly ever enter into Norwegian airspace, I cannot recall the last time it happened. It seems to happen much more frequently to Sweden, although I don't have any figures, I just recall there have been some incidents over the years.

Edit: Some numbers from a few years back Russia has long history of airspace violations (aa.com.tr) :

NATO officials have reported a list of violations by Russian military aircraft trespassing in European airspace. According to those statistics, there were six incidents with Estonia, three with Finland, and one each with Denmark and Poland. Against Sweden there were ten in 2014, up from eight in 2013, and seven in 2012.

2013-2014 was a special period, as I am sure you can recall...
In addition to the airspace violations, Russia also launched a simulated nuclear strike against Sweden in 2013: Russia carried out practice nuclear strike against Sweden (thelocal.se)

 

[Big_Zucchini]

What's the rationale to simply intercept until they decide to leave, rather than shoot them down?
There are international norms and laws, and shooting down an aircraft violating one's airspace will certainly create a diplomatic incident, but it is still well within these norms and laws.

Russia has already escalated by firing on an Estonian ship. Not sure if sunk. It has previously also targeted another merchant ship.
Reacting calmly after an enemy has already escalated is seen by Russia and its allies as a sign of weakness and that further escalation is possible.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

A friend who should know highly recommended this essay by Chinese scholar Chen Feng. It is very long, but I found it well worth the read. Keep in mind that, considering the time difference this was published to the web going on two days ago now. (I started to post it here at about this time yesterday, but then got distracted.)

Part 1 (military campaign): He introduces a possible scenario we have not really discussed here: Russia wrecks Ukraine's military and infrastructure, then withdraws and leaves the West to clean up the mess and rebuild. (He does not specify to what lines Russia would withdraw, but a number of guesses have been made here.) Then, when Ukraine moves closer to NATO member status again, same thing all over again.

Part 2: He discusses how the war in Ukraine involves "not only the political turn of Russia, but also the essential turn of the post-Cold War political landscape" and potential developments going forward. He also speculates on the reason Putin raised the nuclear threat level, message sent and received.

Part 3: Discussion of refugees from Ukraine and possible regional political and economic implications, especially in Eastern Europe.

Part 4: Europe facing having to take on burden of rearming and rebuilding Ukraine, while at the same time beefing up their own military preparedness, plus changes in the energy landscape.

Part 5: Discussion of US theatre prioritization (European vs. Asia-Pacific). We must remember throughout, that he is living in China and must watch his words. While the following may hold some truth, and is "politically correct" for public statements in China, this is just a snapshot in time: "China's military modernization is built on a solid foundation of economic development. China does not seek hegemony and concentrates on its own national security." Ah, but China takes the long view. I'll stop here and perhaps write more about my thoughts on that in a future post. (It has appeared to me since the beginning that the real winner in this war will turn out to be China.)

Link to the essay (Google translate renders a far more readable English version than Safari translate does*):

普京动用“终极威慑”，老欧洲马上看懂了-晨枫-观察者网

实际上，波兰等东欧国家对乌克兰并无好感，乌克兰人在欧美更是粗俗、苦力的印象。笔者在布达佩斯到布拉格的大巴上，亲眼看到突击检查的捷克警察把前排的两个乌克兰女孩粗暴地拉下车。邻座的人说，她俩只是想到德国去打工。

m.guancha.cn

About the author:

提示信息

igpp.fudan.edu.cn

*For some strange reason, Safari sometimes renders "Ukraine" as "Uzbekistan"! There are many other oddities, too, including some real phrase mangling and more problems getting the tense right.

Note: Near the end the essay, he uses a Chinese idiom that does not translate well into English, as a machine translation mangles the word order in such a fashion as to be nonsensical. I don't speak Chinese myself, so I had to look it up: 1. Lit. "the mantis stalks the cicada, unaware of the oriole behind" 2. Fig. "to pursue a narrow gain while neglecting a greater danger" (if translating in Safari browser, "oriole" is rendered as "yellow finch")

 

[JGCAC]

It has appeared to me since the beginning that the real winner in this war will turn out to be China.)

My first thought as well.

the mantis stalks the cicada, unaware of the oriole behind" 2. Fig. "to pursue a narrow gain while neglecting a greater danger

Russia is distracting the West from the real threat of China. It should also be pointed out that China presents a major threat to Russia as well. But Russia seems to hate the West so much, they're willing to cut off their nose to spite their face.

This war will make them extremely dependent on China and I doubt they'll like it. So much for the multipolar world power model.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

My first thought as well.

Russia distracting the West from the real threat of China. It should also be pointed out that China presents a major threat to Russia as well. But Russia seems to hate the West so much, they're willing to cut off their nose to spite their face.

This war will make them extremely dependent on China and I doubt they'll like it. So much for the multipolar world power model.

My take on his extension of the idiom was his (perhaps coded) way of saying the oriole gets both the mantis and cicada, given some patience on the part of the oriole. If you consider the visual image of a mantis with its large forelegs grappling a cicada (a large, strong, well-armored and noisy insect with a wide wingspan), the oriole gets them both, provided the mantis suffuciently tires or damages the cicada before the Oriole swoops up from behind so the cicada cannot quickly fly away. Hence his question: Who is the mantis and who is the cicada? We know the oriole is China, and we know China is practiced in the art of patience. Who in the present conflict is the mantis, and who is the cicada?

There are lots of (very loud!) cicadas where I grew up in the US, and we have preying mantises, too. For those of you who live in areas not so familiar with them:

We also have these huge and rather horrifying wasps called cicada hawks. The female catches a cicada, paralyzes it with her sting, grasps it in her legs, and flies the huge and heavy cicada to her underground tunnel (quite a sight to see). There, she lays her eggs on the head of the paralyzed cicada. The wasp larva hatch within two days and literally eat the cicada alive starting with the inside of its head, poor paralyzed thing. Sometimes when I'm feeling particularly grumpy, I think we're all cicadas and the media, especially social media, are cicada hawks.

 

[ngatimozart]

@Capt. Ironpants Where is the link for Feng Chen's essay? Both links go to his profile.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

@Capt. Ironpants Where is the link for Feng Chen's essay? Both links go to his profile.

Oh my! I really goofed! Fixed now. Thanks for pointing it out. It really is an interesting read. @Ananda may find it of interest.

Edit: I was interested in learning about Chinese views of the current conflict. Not that this is the view of those in the top echelons of power in Chinese government, or even the Chinese perspective, but I found it fascinating.

 

[Pentaprism]

Given China’s recent behaviour, are Asian countries really that enthusiastic to hook up with a Swift alternative that will be heavily influenced by the CCP? An alternative setup with India and Japan would be better but certainly the Japanese wouldn’t want to risk upsetting the US, especially wrt defence. Even adding a couple of ME countries to the mix isn’t all that much better given their political situations that could face an uncertain future. SWIFT, for all its faults from a non-western perspective, is a better bet than anything run and/or influenced by the CCP.

Except if you don’t have access to it.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Bitcoin sanctions could be next, but most Russians won't care

Washington takes aim at Russia's access to digital cash as the U.S. and its allies levy heavy punitive measures against Moscow.

www.cnbc.com

This assesment are more balance on what economic sanction can do to Russia. It's more balance then what mainstream non market oriented media in West put. Market people tend to be more realistic to see the situation.

In short targeting bit coin will not effect much, also targeting online digital currency will be much harder to handle. However in last part on the article, even Western official acknowlede if Russia and China build their own financial system, it will be close to nothing West can do.

Unless West want to sanctions those whose trading with Russia outside Western System. That will increase the level of trade war, and destroy current global trade. Even on current economic sanctions with Russia can potentially hit back West hard (especially Euro zone).

All of this will only creating alternatives system on financial transaction outside Western system. There are countries that trading with West and Non West financial market, which going to see that acceptable. They are going to used SWIFT for dealing with West, and whatever come out from China-Russia on dealing with other market.

Globalisation then in true meaning will be divided at least in to two.

Related to Bit Coin:

World's largest cryptocurrency exchange refuses to block Russian users

The world's largest cryptocurrency exchange has said it won't block all Russian accounts despite the request from Ukraine.

www.tweaktown.com

Crytocurrency market begin to say No toward Ukraine or West demand to isolate Russia. Those Internet Geek build cryptocurrency exchange market to avoid being regulated by Politicians.

That's reality of market. Market wants minimum intervention for regulators, let alone politically driven regulations. That's what even Western market practitioner already warn Western politicians, especially on SWIFT.

Abuse the Market with Political driven regulations, Market will find alternatives.

Very interesting piece here, at least it is to me. Professor Chen Xi of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Jiaotong University interviewed about the SWIFT sanctions:

美国对俄罗斯动用“金融核武器”，对中国有何启示？-陈欣-观察者网

归根到底大国之间的博弈还是要看实力的，美国如果完全不需要俄罗斯的资源，也不需要中国的货物，确实你可以狠狠地制裁。可按照现在国际社会这种经济来往的密切程度，那样很有可能引发一次长期的金融经济危机，所以美国也是非常犹豫的。

m.guancha.cn

Highlights in English:

Professor Chen said China might be reluctant to help Russia circumvent SWIFT sanctions because the United States might retaliate by imposing sanctions on Chinese banks, and that would have disastrous consequences.

The RMB cross-border payment system still relies on banks as nodes, and these nodes can be sanctioned and pressured. For example, the payment system built by China may be independent of the SWIFT system controlled by the United States, but the intermediate nodes are all banks. The United States can sanction these banks. If no one is allowed to do business with Chinese banks, and other countries cooperate with these measures, then this system will not work.

Russia also built its own independent payment system. It also could adopt the cross-border payment system established by China as a potential replacement for SWIFT. But the key point is that these international cross-border systems all require the participation of actual banks.

The United States is likely to threaten all financial institutions. If anyone deals with Russia, it might sanction them. If this is the case, the big Chinese banks may not dare to deal with Russia. In this case, Russia would only be able to do business with some small banks. ..But if the United States sanctioned Chinese banks in this way, the damage to the global economy would be too great for anyone to bear.

In the final analysis, the game between major powers depends on strength. If the United States doesn’t need Russian resources at all, and it doesn’t need Chinese products, it certainly could impose severe sanctions.However, given the current level of international exchange, if trade between China and Russia were cut off completely, it would take a long time for the United States to adjust to it, and the damage to supply chains would cause damage to the entire global economy. Such a drastic measure probably would trigger a long-term financial and economic crisis, so the United States is also very hesitant to do this.

I found this a bit amusing, as the good professor appears not to mind telling it like it is, and I doubt one would see such a statement in the Western press:
Reporter: However, in the current joint statement between the United States and Europe, the target is still some Russian banks, and not all banks are included...
Chen Xin: Because Western countries are very contradictory, they do not want to use this trick, because it is "cheap" once used.
--
Meanwhile, in Germany, Die Welt noted that risks to the financial system cut both ways: "CIPS already handles US$50 billion of daily transactions. That is considerably less than the $400 billion of transactions that pass every day through SWIFT, but CIPS volume has increased rapidly." ... "If Russia and China linked their systems and offered an alternative to other authoritarian states, this could threaten American domination of financial markets."

Swift-Ausschluss von Russland: Das wären die Folgen der „finanziellen Nuklearwaffe“ - WELT

Ein Ausschluss aus dem Zahlungssystem Swift gilt als schärfste Strafmaßnahme des Westens gegen Russland. Trotzdem schreckt vor allem Deutschland davor zurück. Dafür gibt es auch einen beunruhigenden Grund. WELT beantwortet die wichtigsten Fragen rund um das Instrument.

www.welt.de

 

[seaspear]

I read with interest the comments on the controversy of the expansion of N.A.T.O into the former Eastern bloc countries but would suggest that the role of N.A.T.O has changed, as this fact sheet sets out

HOW NATO HAS CHANGED IN THE POST COLD WAR ERA

 

[Ananda]

If Russia and China linked their systems and offered an alternative to other authoritarian states, this could threaten American domination of financial markets

Sanctions Could Increase Moscow's Dependence on China

Moscow may be driven into Beijing's economic embrace as the West's rivals seek alternatives to SWIFT

time.com

This is what many Western especially US market practisioners already warn also. The article in Time I've put is one of them. USD dominance is based on market trust on relatively more dependeable US and Western market system.

However market always want to put market need in front of everything else including Politics. Playing too much politics in the system will always can bring negative blow back. The problem is not just Iran, Venezuala, Russia that going to move to China based system. However other non Western market even some in West can increasingly see CIPS as alternatives.

Like I said before, some in Asian trade already use CIPS as it will provide better exchange rate costs when dealing with China rather then using USD as intermediate currency in SWIFT (for one thing). However if only used in Chinese trade, it will not going to be alternatives to SWIFT in foreseable future.

What the western market worries is this kind of situation on using SWIFT as political tools against Russia, will "Internationalise" CIPS. That's when CIPS can be competitors to SWIFT. It will increase the volume in CIPS, and with that potential deepening on financing options. If that happen, Western politicians really bring market alternatives that challange Western dominance in Global Financial market. That's what make market people in West worries.

 

[Steinmetz]

Russia is already starting to switch to Chinese alternatives. Following the ban of MasterCard and Visa, Sberbank is turning to UnionPay.

Russian Sberbank is Turning to UnionPay Following Visa and MasterCard's suspension. - Forex News

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It seems that Rossiya Special Flight Squadron IL-96-300 RA-96019 is flying now to Dulles International Airport, VA from St Petersburg.
Big chance some high ranking officials are on the way for negotiations in Washington DC.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500171751367528448

 

[Ananda]

Shell Buys Russian Oil at Bargain Price

Shell PLC has snapped up a cargo of Russian crude at a bargain price, ending a self-imposed embargo on Russian oil by the international energy industry. Shell bought 100,000 metric tons of Russi

www.wsj.com

Not yet 2 weeks, and West self embargo on not buying anything from Russia begin to fracture. Can West hold them selves from addiction toward Russian resources ?

 

[Vivendi]

Shell Buys Russian Oil at Bargain Price

Shell PLC has snapped up a cargo of Russian crude at a bargain price, ending a self-imposed embargo on Russian oil by the international energy industry. Shell bought 100,000 metric tons of Russi

www.wsj.com

Not yet 2 weeks, and West self embargo on not buying anything from Russia begin to fracture. Can West hold them selves from addiction toward Russian resources ?

From the story you linked to:

A person familiar with the company’s trading strategy said Shell was still buying Russian oil to plug into refiners and petrochemical plants while it looked for alternative sources.

CNBC:

Shell said in a statement late Saturday that it had been in “intense talks with governments and continue to follow their guidance around this issue of security of supply, and are acutely aware we have to navigate this dilemma with the utmost care.”


“We didn’t take this decision lightly and we understand the strength of feeling around it,” the statement read.

Shell defends decision to buy discounted oil from Russia (cnbc.com)

Shell claims this is something they do while they are looking for other sources.

 

[Ananda]

Trading strategy is just an other way saying that they will trade if it is making better margin. The oil and gas price is shoot up due to embargo. That's why I said, how long the West can hold them selves from not getting Russia resources. In the end, margin talks.

 

[ngatimozart]

It seems that Rossiya Special Flight Squadron IL-96-300 RA-96019 is flying now to Dulles International Airport, VA from St Petersburg.
Big chance some high ranking officials are on the way for negotiations in Washington DC.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500171751367528448

No it is going to pick up the 12 Russian UN diplomats that been persona non grata'd by the US because of allegations of them undertaking activities that were not consistent with their role as diplomats.