Thanks and fixed.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
HelBattery
Member
"Polish MiGs are not involved in the war in Ukraine".
Article published on Polish magazine "Wprost" website:
W wojnie na Ukrainie nie uczestniczą polskie MiG-i. Rzecznik rządu dementuje
Article published on Polish magazine "Wprost" website:
W wojnie na Ukrainie nie uczestniczą polskie MiG-i. Rzecznik rządu dementuje
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Yes, I believe that the Poles haven't handed any over because their replacements haven't arrived yet. If they handed them over it would left the Poles significantly shorthanded in aviation assets.
The question is whether it makes sense for UAF to defend every city and population centre. The UAF will be spread thin and the Russian Army would like no better than to encircle and destroy isolated units and divisions.
But there are some cities that needs to be defended due to strategic reasons (i.e. Odessa, remaining access to the Black Sea) as well as political reasons.
Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
Your friend was right.
My Serbian is getting very rusty, but I'll give some highlights of portions I was able to view. I had a good deal of trouble playing the video (kept getting those red dots, then jumping to video of another speech more about economic impact on Serbia, red dots again), which was very, very frustrating. The following is disjointed and likely not in chronological order due to my difficulty viewing the video. Text inside [brackets] indicates I am unsure or having trouble getting the nuance right. Text inside (parentheses) indicates I am paraphrasing or quickly going from memory. Text with no quotation marks, and not inside brackets or parentheses, are my own words, as are those inside [[double brackets]]. Finally, I hope I didn't mix in anything from the second speech by accident.
Re condemnation of the attack on Ukraine: "The text does not mention any sanctions, but it is important for us to condemn the collapse of the territorial integrity of any member state."
(It has never been harder for him and he has never struggled more with being [distressed/disheartened] in the past ten years.) "The crisis due to the war in Ukraine is affecting Serbia dramatically. What is not easy to explain is the connection between politics and the economy, the influence of politics on the economy, the pressures we are exposed to and everything that lies ahead.
"Since Friday, the whole world has become different in just three, four, five days and nothing is the same anymore. ... "Everything we knew yesterday does not look like what we are going through today" ... "Tectonic changes have taken place on the world stage, and Serbia is in an extremely difficult situation. It is not a question of the correctness of our position, but of the incredible circumstances that brought us into a difficult situation."
"In the previous 48 hours ... [[Sorry, I could not quite catch his words]] ... there is no representative of any important country with whom I have not talked. I spoke with Ursula von der Leyen, a representative of Germany -- USA, France -- exchanged messages on all important issues -- from voting for a declaration and a resolution to the sanctions imposed on Russia."
"Serbia kept its same position as in the previous days. Out of a total of thirteen acts, we voted for four acts, but we could not vote for nine, because they concerned the introduction of sanctions on the banking sector or air transport or directly on individuals from Putin, Lavrov, Peskov to everyone else."
"There is less than ever an understanding for the position of Serbia and our people anywhere in the world" ... ""Few people are interested in what happened in 1999." ... "There is almost no representative of large countries with whom we have not spoken. Serbia is facing enormous pressure with the fact that few people want to hear our arguments, then it is clear to you how difficult our position is."
"I think that this is just the beginning, the pressures on our country will be huge in the coming period... We will witness the complete destruction of the existing order." (Serbia can expect to see several political traps in the coming period.) "Not because they care about Russia and Ukraine, it doesn't bother some people in the region, they do everything they can to overthrow Serbia. You saw that the Albanians* sent a request to become a full member of NATO, and they received support. "Regarding Turkey, what I can predict is that some of the next initiatives will be the exclusion of the Russian Federation from the UN."
"I already see initiatives in certain countries, and I say that because we are following them, Albanians in Kosovo and some others..." ... "In accordance with Article 6 of the UN Charter, they plan to discuss the expulsion of Russia from the UN, and after that there will be pressure on China to change Resolution 1244 and after the change of Resolution 1244 we have no legal basis to invoke international law and preserve our territorial integrity as we have it today ... and then follows the recognition by NATO and EU countries, those that have not done it so far, of the independence of Kosovo."
"This is the idea of Albanian** lobbyists and they presented it to international representatives." ... "Whether it is possible or not - I do not rule out that possibility at all. Will someone say that it is not technically possible, I thought everything was not possible, and in these three or four days I saw that it is possible."
"This is only one part of the problem. The other part of the problem, is that, if we keep our position, of further endangering Serbia's economic position through less investment in the future."
Answering question about what kind of reaction he expects from Russia after Serbia's vote in the UN: "After what Bosnia-Hercegivina did today, Serbia is the only one in Europe that did not impose sanctions."
"In accordance with the conclusions of the National Security Council, we will keep the peace in the region and be lenient, and we will not respond to daily provocations from Pristina and other parts of the region."
"A decision will be made tonight on whether a protest note would be delivered to Turkey. We certainly do not see as a friendly move the statement given in the conversation with Vjos Osmani and the fact that Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that without asking anyone, Turkey will always make a decision on its own on Kosovo's accession to NATO."
*I am certain he means ethnic Albanians of Kosovo.
**I assume he means ethnic Albanians of Kosovo, but there is a remote possibility he means Albanians of Albania.
Me talking here:
Re Kosovo in NATO. They popped up yesterday or day before, asking to get fast-tracked into NATO right away and saying they want to host an American base. My immediate thought: Hey, NATO is already is in you, Kosovo -- it's called KFOR -- and you already have American Camp Bondsteel, which anyone could see from the start was built for the ages.
For more context re Serbia's dilemma:
EU resolution on Russia, Serbia is mentioned in the text VIDEO
Latest Serbia news in English, latest Kosovo news in English, Serbian economy news, Serbian business news, Serbian politics news, Balkan regional news in English
www.b92.net
EDIT: No, it's not pure crazy talk from President Vučić (although it won't actually happen):
Effort under way to challenge Russia’s right to seat on UN security council
In wake of Ukraine invasion, diplomats consider if Russia can be removed as one of five permanent security council members
www.theguardian.com
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Steinmetz
Active Member
Thank you for taking the time, listening to the entire speech, and summarizing the speech in a detailed way. I really appreciate it. What a difficult position for Serbia to be in, I'm sure there was enormous pressure behind the scenes to vote on the resolution and enact sanctions. I am rather troubled by recent events in the Balkans, in general. I'm sure we'll have more in-depth discussions on this matter here. I'm not sure if there is a thread dedicated to the Balkans, I'm sure there is, I'll find it. That's another hot-spot to look out for and that speech confirms it. Serbian - Ukrainian ties were fairly good as well, from what I understand. There's a long history between the vestiges of former Yugoslavia with their eastern brethren. If anything, this conflict in Ukraine has shown us how horrible war is, despite how cool we find armaments and weaponry to be, diplomacy should always be the preferred method, each and every time. The world order does seem shaky and uncertainty is ahead.Your friend was right.
My Serbian is getting very rusty, but I'll give some highlights of portions I was able to view. I had a good deal of trouble playing the video (kept getting those red dots, then jumping to video of another speech more about economic impact on Serbia, red dots again), which was very, very frustrating. The following is disjointed and likely not in chronological order due to my difficulty viewing the video. Text inside [brackets] indicates I am unsure or having trouble getting the nuance right. Text inside (parentheses) indicates I am paraphrasing or quickly going from memory. Text with no quotation marks, and not inside brackets or parentheses, are my own words, as are those inside [[double brackets]]. Finally, I hope I didn't mix in anything from the second speech by accident.
Re condemnation of the attack on Ukraine: "The text does not mention any sanctions, but it is important for us to condemn the collapse of the territorial integrity of any member state."
(It has never been harder for him and he has never struggled more with being [distressed/disheartened] in the past ten years.) "The crisis due to the war in Ukraine is affecting Serbia dramatically. What is not easy to explain is the connection between politics and the economy, the influence of politics on the economy, the pressures we are exposed to and everything that lies ahead.
"Since Friday, the whole world has become different in just three, four, five days and nothing is the same anymore. ... "Everything we knew yesterday does not look like what we are going through today" ... "Tectonic changes have taken place on the world stage, and Serbia is in an extremely difficult situation. It is not a question of the correctness of our position, but of the incredible circumstances that brought us into a difficult situation."
"In the previous 48 hours ... [[Sorry, I could not quite catch his words]] ... there is no representative of any important country with whom I have not talked. I spoke with Ursula von der Leyen, a representative of Germany -- USA, France -- exchanged messages on all important issues -- from voting for a declaration and a resolution to the sanctions imposed on Russia."
"Serbia kept its same position as in the previous days. Out of a total of thirteen acts, we voted for four acts, but we could not vote for nine, because they concerned the introduction of sanctions on the banking sector or air transport or directly on individuals from Putin, Lavrov, Peskov to everyone else."
"There is less than ever an understanding for the position of Serbia and our people anywhere in the world" ... ""Few people are interested in what happened in 1999." ... "There is almost no representative of large countries with whom we have not spoken. Serbia is facing enormous pressure with the fact that few people want to hear our arguments, then it is clear to you how difficult our position is."
"I think that this is just the beginning, the pressures on our country will be huge in the coming period... We will witness the complete destruction of the existing order." (Serbia can expect to see several political traps in the coming period.) "Not because they care about Russia and Ukraine, it doesn't bother some people in the region, they do everything they can to overthrow Serbia. You saw that the Albanians* sent a request to become a full member of NATO, and they received support. "Regarding Turkey, what I can predict is that some of the next initiatives will be the exclusion of the Russian Federation from the UN."
"I already see initiatives in certain countries, and I say that because we are following them, Albanians in Kosovo and some others..." ... "In accordance with Article 6 of the UN Charter, they plan to discuss the expulsion of Russia from the UN, and after that there will be pressure on China to change Resolution 1244 and after the change of Resolution 1244 we have no legal basis to invoke international law and preserve our territorial integrity as we have it today ... and then follows the recognition by NATO and EU countries, those that have not done it so far, of the independence of Kosovo."
"This is the idea of Albanian** lobbyists and they presented it to international representatives." ... "Whether it is possible or not - I do not rule out that possibility at all. Will someone say that it is not technically possible, I thought everything was not possible, and in these three or four days I saw that it is possible."
"This is only one part of the problem. The other part of the problem, is that, if we keep our position, of further endangering Serbia's economic position through less investment in the future."
Answering question about what kind of reaction he expects from Russia after Serbia's vote in the UN: "After what Bosnia-Hercegivina did today, Serbia is the only one in Europe that did not impose sanctions."
"In accordance with the conclusions of the National Security Council, we will keep the peace in the region and be lenient, and we will not respond to daily provocations from Pristina and other parts of the region."
"A decision will be made tonight on whether a protest note would be delivered to Turkey. We certainly do not see as a friendly move the statement given in the conversation with Vjos Osmani and the fact that Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that without asking anyone, Turkey will always make a decision on its own on Kosovo's accession to NATO."
*I am certain he means ethnic Albanians of Kosovo.
**I assume he means ethnic Albanians of Kosovo, but there is a remote possibility he means Albanians of Albania.
Me talking here:
Re Kosovo in NATO. They popped up yesterday or day before, asking to get fast-tracked into NATO right away and saying they want to host an American base. My immediate thought: Hey, NATO is already is in you, Kosovo -- it's called KFOR -- and you already have American Camp Bondsteel, which anyone could see from the start was built for the ages.
For more context re Serbia's dilemma:
EU resolution on Russia, Serbia is mentioned in the text VIDEO
Latest Serbia news in English, latest Kosovo news in English, Serbian economy news, Serbian business news, Serbian politics news, Balkan regional news in English
EDIT: No, it's not pure crazy talk from President Vučić (although it won't actually happen):
Effort under way to challenge Russia’s right to seat on UN security council
In wake of Ukraine invasion, diplomats consider if Russia can be removed as one of five permanent security council members
Steinmetz
Active Member
I'm seeing reports that Major General Andrey Sukhovetsky, deputy commander of the 41st Army has died somewhere in Ukraine. I can't find any proper information on how or where he died at.
Example of radio chatter I indicated earlier. There is a callsign by the name of "Buran - 30" who has become quite popular. He's gone from crying, losing his voice, and his position getting attacked various times. At 56:10 is a prime example of how the Ukrainians have wreaked havoc by jamming coms, with pig squeals.
Major General Mick Ryan chimes in on the implications of such chatter being accessible to everyone and the lack of proper communication equipment.
I agree, plenty of dead Russian vehicles to go around. They've already won the information war.
Example of radio chatter I indicated earlier. There is a callsign by the name of "Buran - 30" who has become quite popular. He's gone from crying, losing his voice, and his position getting attacked various times. At 56:10 is a prime example of how the Ukrainians have wreaked havoc by jamming coms, with pig squeals.
Major General Mick Ryan chimes in on the implications of such chatter being accessible to everyone and the lack of proper communication equipment.
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I wonder whether such a feeling was in 60-80s in the Western world so the patterns could be found. Russia follows rather similar patterns that Germany and USSR followed.
At the moment I dont see drastic changes in tactics since Chechnya (though I am newbie). They tried to do it fast and rather quietly, but when it failed the strikes at big cities (Kyiv and Charkiv mostly) started as well as sending the green soldiers to do the job instead of someone more capable of. In my opinion, these attacks are the new add-on to the plan in the attempt to speed up things.
Regarding the information war, besides the causes of the invasion, the idea of powerful Russian army is cracked. While they have huge army, sending old tanks, that left without fuel, green soldiers with spoiled MREs and cheap Chinese comms and even police forces (who has little idea how to act in combat) presents the army in the bad way.
It doesn't work that way and I doubt the Chechnyan fighters would be deterred by it.
Russian Amphibious Assault Ship Armada Seen Off Crimea As Fears Of Odessa Beach Landing Grow
While the huge Russian column north of Kyiv has stalled, a major assault on the Black Sea port city of Odessa might soon begin.
www.thedrive.com
Wher are the javelins? Wouldn’t they be useful if ships are that close to shore and with landing craft coming ashore?,
It's definitely for moral purposes, they're definitely did it just to make themselves feel better.
That said, since it's on the news, it certainly works to alienate Muslims who may otherwise be neutral or maybe sympathetic to their cause. There's already gripes about the comparison made between middle east and Ukraine, as if war in the middle east is business as usual and war in Ukraine is so downright shocking. I know enough to say that there are differences, but in broad strokes, amateur observers can only see it as hypocrisy and I can't say I blame them for being repulsed by it.
I personally think that it is a useless act. If you want to do it for moral purposes, keep it away from the news. Politically, it's not a pretty look. It has the potential to alienate most Muslims who could otherwise support you, and at worse reaffirms Putin's point of Ukraine being ran by neo Nazi.
Indonesia voted yes in condemning the Russian invasion in UNGA, but I can tell you now that there is a lot of people here rooting for Russia.
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HelBattery
Member
Apparently it didn't work:
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Azov is mostly in MariupolApparently it didn't work:
After a fight Chechen soldiers have caputerd Ukrainian military base in Kiev area.VK.com | VK
Btw, what is in your opinion Russia will consider the weapon that “can be used to attack Russia”? According to their demilitarization idea.
Upd:
There is an article where the authors claim (based on their internal sources in the banks) that 1 month before invasion the banks provided the reports on how the sanctions will affect the Russian economy. However, they expected in the worst case scenario only the recognition of LDNR without full-scale invasion. They also assumed that there would be no sanctions against Central Bank.
frankrg.com
Upd:
There is an article where the authors claim (based on their internal sources in the banks) that 1 month before invasion the banks provided the reports on how the sanctions will affect the Russian economy. However, they expected in the worst case scenario only the recognition of LDNR without full-scale invasion. They also assumed that there would be no sanctions against Central Bank.
Операция за 5 триллионов: во сколько санкции обойдутся банкам — Frank Media
✓ За месяц до начала военного конфликта на Украине финансовые власти предупреждали руководство страны о его возможных последствиях — Frank Media
frankrg.com
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You might be right to a sufficient extent. Except, I think it has more to do with malice than morale, and certainly nothing to do with morality. Otherwise, they wouldn't be greasing bullets with pig fat. By supporting Azov Ukraine certainly risks isolating itself in the greater Muslim world. All the racial profiling at the borders and train stations isn't helping either.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #1,116
Thank you for the detailed research. This does clarify things a bit.I noted it was pretty wild!
The first story appears to have been lifted from the Greek newspaper site Proto Thema:
Πόλεμος στην Ουκρανία: Σε εξέλιξη η επιστροφή των Ελλήνων από την Μαριούπολη
«Η κατάσταση φαίνεται ότι θα γίνει πολύ πολύ χειρότερη τις επόμενες ώρες», δήλωσε πριν την αναχώρηση ο πρέσβης Φραγκίσκος Κωστελλένος - Οι ρωσικές δυνάμεις έχουν περικυκλώσει τη Μαριούπολη - Πάνω από 100 άμαχοι έχουν τραυματιστείwww.protothema.gr
About Proto Thema:
Proto Thema - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
- - -
The second story appears to be based on a tweet showing a Skai TV segment. I don't speak or understand Greek, except a few words and phrases, but know the alphabet just well enough to read things like names, easy words I know, etc. It appears the talking head in the top middle box is the Mr. Kiouranasis named in the article and purportedly in Mariupol (name of city is under his name which I suppose would be spelled something like ΜΑΡΙΟΥΠΟΛΗ in all caps in Greek). As best I can make out, the moderator in the top left box was apparently decrying Russian propaganda and then Mr. Kiouranas went off on him. I can't understand what he is saying at all. (Maybe we have some who speak Greek here?) So I can't verify whether the translation in the story is correct.
News segment in question posted on official Skai TV You Tube channel.
So, what's Skai TV? Best I can make out, it was pretty yellow back in the early 1990s when first launched, has changed hands several times, and is now more respectable. From wiki: "On 1 April 2006, the company that originally launched Skai TV bought Seven TV, a holder of a Greek National broadcasting license that failed to expand its coverage all over the country or attract a wide audience. The station was renamed to 'Skai TV' allowing the brand to re-emerge on the Greek television scene after 7 years, but this time the owners decided to forgo their previous approach and opted for high-quality foreign shows and valid news coverage. On 6 September 2007, Skai TV was added to the lineup of NOVA Greece digital platform. On 2 March 2016, Skai TV launched its own high-definition feed. On 2 September, the network won one of four national television licenses auctioned in Greece after Iannis Alafouzos paid €43.6 million in a highly unusual competitive bidding process."
The part you enjoyed about the Norse Mythology, etc. sun symbols, etc. earlier was lifted from an old piece from 2014 in The Guardian (I recall reading it back then):
Azov fighters are Ukraine's greatest weapon and may be its greatest threat
The battalion's far-right volunteers' desire to 'bring the fight to Kiev' is a danger to post-conflict stability
First photo is an Adobe stock image:
TinEye Reverse Image Search
TinEye is an image search and recognition company. We are experts in computer vision, pattern recognition, neural networks, and machine learning.tineye.com
Second photo is hot-linked (!) from RT (and according to Tin Eye, this photo has really proliferated):
'It’s his personal ideology': USA Today finds Nazis among Kiev’s volunteer brigade
An Azov Battalion sergeant has confessed to USA Today of praising Nazi ideology. He also pledged a march on the Ukrainian capital after the war. A spokesman for the pro-Kiev brigade insists this is a 'personal choice' of no more than a fifth of the unit.www.rt.com
Who in turn lifted copy from USA Today:
Volunteer Ukrainian unit includes Nazis
Some members of the Azov Brigade fighting separatists are accused of abuses.www.usatoday.com
- - -
Third story is mainly lifted from All Jazeera:
Russia claims control of southern Ukrainian city of Kherson
Defence ministry says talks are under way between Russian army and local authorities on maintaining order.www.aljazeera.com
First photo is a Getty, from 24.02.2022 used several times by BBC, also Moscow Times, etc.
Second photo has been used many times by BBC beginning 25.02.2022.
Third photo lifted from Al Jazeera:
Russia intensifies attacks on key Ukrainian cities
Ukrainian authorities reject Russia’s claim it captured the Black Sea port of Kherson, as Mariupol comes under siege.
- - - -
Fourth story was mainly lifted from Ethnos, a Greek newspaper established in 1913, now web-only:
Πόλεμος Ουκρανία: Η ανησυχία για τους Έλληνες της Μαριούπολης και ο ρόλος του ακροδεξιού τάγματος Αζόφ - Τι λέει ο διεθνολόγος Θράσος Ευτυχίδης στο ethnos.gr
Τι λέει στο ethnos.gr ο Θράσος Ευτυχίδηςwww.ethnos.gr
First photo is from Ethnos article sbove. Second photo is BBC/Getty, of strike on Irpin TV station 2 March 2022. Next, the Twitter stuff, who knows? Third photo is from BBC, residential building in Irpin, 2 March. Fourth photo is from BBC, labeled as handout photo from the press office of the State Emergency Services of Ukraine showing a fire in a building at the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) after shelling in Kharkiv 2 March.
- - -
So yeah, the site is pretty amateurish, and the way they lift images from other news sites is dodgy. They lift lots of copy from other news sites, obviously, but at least give attribution. I can't find any intent to fake anything. They might get suckered in by Twitter hoaxers, but then again, so have major news outlets. It's hardly a bastion of award-winning journalism, just a goofy site for English speakers of Greek heritage to get news about Greek stuff, it looks to me like.
Yes, new and amateurish. See above. Doesn't appear to have been set up as a dreaded "Russian troll site" though. Probably youngish Greek expats run it, aren't very professional, but well-enough meaning and trying to make a buck. People of Greek heritage in the US do a really good job of forming tight communities and preserving aspects of their culture, and I wondered how Greeks in Greece are viewing this, and Greek expats/those of Greek heritage in other parts of the world are. Large Hellenistic community in Ukraine is getting bombed by Russians and it's known Ukrainian nationalist types whip up on them. Talk about stuck between a rock and a hard place. I don't speak Greek, and this site popped up in an internet search, so .... Maybe there's a better Greek-oriented site in English somewhere?
We're already past that. Kharkov, Chernigov, and Sumy are under attack. Unless they actiely retreat in the north-east, Russia will have taken a significant portion of Ukraine, far in excess of a land bridge to Crimea.
Good question. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia pushes for severe limitations on what kind of military Ukraine can have. But I also suspect there's a maximum position and a minimum position, and the minimum might just be a lot of restritions on missile tech, and a complete ban on foreign military presence, while a maximum might involve Ukraine's military being reduced like Germany's was after WWI.
With respect to the communications problems, what exactly is the issue?
From what I remember, they've bragged a lot over the years about their comms, command and control improving.
So is it a matter of radios not being issued? Batteries not charged? Too few modern systems? Troops not trained to use them? Some/all of the above in combination?
This is pretty damning given the Russian army has been aware of its weaknesses in this area since at least Chechnya, and made a big fuss about improving after the war with Georgia.
From what I remember, they've bragged a lot over the years about their comms, command and control improving.
So is it a matter of radios not being issued? Batteries not charged? Too few modern systems? Troops not trained to use them? Some/all of the above in combination?
This is pretty damning given the Russian army has been aware of its weaknesses in this area since at least Chechnya, and made a big fuss about improving after the war with Georgia.
There have yet to be any reported instances of war crimes or atrocities on the part of combatants towards prisoners. If the Chechians and the Azov Battalion meet, I'll be very surprised if any prisoners are taken.
HelBattery
Member
If they have such basic communication problems then how did they manage to capture two airfields on the outskirts of Kiev and defend one from being retaken by counter-attacking Ukrainian troops, mainly thanks to close air support?
Which to a large extent they did, as was demonstrated in Syria and the Donbass. A possibility is that they misjudged or miscalculated the type of conflict they would fight in the Ukraine.
I'm really looking forward to analysis from Lester Gray on overall Russian performance.
The only possible answer I can think of is that some units have better comms than others and that how well their comms perform depends on specific circumstances.
The general feeling is that the Russians have underperformed [they are certainly behind schedule] but I feel it's still.early days to form any firm.conclusions. They might end up turning things around sooner rather than later. Having said that, prior to the invasion I did wonder if the Ukrainians would hold their ground [the feeling shared by many is that they would collapse] and whether the Russians would be as successful as most assumed.
Here's a,look at ''the other side of the hill'' so to speak.
Ukraine conflict: Who's in Putin's inner circle and running the war? - BBC News
Russia's president relies on a small but deeply loyal group of people when he makes key decisions.
www.bbc.com
This is fairly recent. Worth watching.
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