The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Почему первые дни войны складываются не так, как хотела Россия — детальный тред-разбор от военного эксперта — Интернет на TJ
Неудавшийся блицкриг, ошибочная ставка на мобильные группы без поддержки, недооценка украинской армии и первые выводы: Россия уже меняет тактику, и боевые действия могут стать жёстче.
tjournal.ru
American expert presents his view on the situation (there is a Russian translation under each post).
The point is that there are serious logistics problems and tactical miscalculations such as rush with small forces without cover or trying to move huge amount of armor through the small corridor.
However, he thinks that situation might get worse if the force will be able to move finally or they start to use aviation more actively.
I highly recommend to read it, as it quite similar to what was said here
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Possible explanation:
The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force
On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.
rusi.org
Russia has used cluster bombs on civilian targets. They are illegal and that is a war crime. Deliberately sing them against civils is also a war crime. Russia is also accused of using a thermobaric bomb. Such weapons are illegal and hence a war crime. Russia also has attacked Ukraine in an unprovoked act of wanton aggression. That may be a war crime, hence is investigation.
You may think this absurd, but it's not and there are reasons for these crimes, and Crimes Against Humanity some which are a result of the Nuremburg and Tokyo War Crimes Trials after WW2 and some of which are enacted because of the Holocaust and Japanese atrocities. There are also such things as Rules of War and the Geneva Conventions etc. Something that you personally maybe unfamiliar with but then maybe you have never served in a military and are just a keyboard warrior hiding behind a monitor.
WRT regard to the distaste and disrespect towards Russia that it is copping from everyone. It has Putin to thank for that and it deserves every bit it receives because of Putin's actions. Putin calls the Ukrainian government Nazis, but there are only one set of Nazis in this war and they reside in the Kremlin. Some people have renamed Putin, Adolf Putin, and I think that's quite appropriate. As far as I am concerned Putin is the absolute scum of the earth and I shouldn't be insulting scum by associating them with Putin. He's no better than Adolf Hitler or Josef Mengele because he's just as evil. Now you may be a Putin apologist but be careful because that will not gain you any friends here or elsewhere.
EDIT: mrrosenthal Permanently banned for being a PRC Troll.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Thermobaric bombs are illegal? Wasn’t aware of this.
HelBattery
Member
Article published on Polish info portal "Interia" (in Polish):
Ukraińskie MIG-i polecą z polskich lotnisk? KPRM zabrał głos
Translation of key fragments:
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Neither was I until I saw an item yesterday arvo NZ time. I will have to look into it.
ray501501501
New Member
I have followed quietly for a long time on these forums.
I find that some moderators really like to throw their weight around here. [B]ngatimozart[/B], can you provide evidence that the Russians have deliberately targeted civvies with cluster munitions. Also, since when are thermobaric weapons illegal. Look forward to you providing such evidence to support your argument as per the forum rules here.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
I would suggest that a good place to start would be to read the Convention on Cluster Munitions. Whilst neither Russia or the Ukraine are signatories, nor are the US, India, Pakistan or China, the convention as such prohibits the use of cluster munitions. There is no requirement that civilians need to be the intended target. As I understand it, this is due to the tendency for cluster submunitions to not all detonate immediately, which would present an ongoing threat to civilian populations. Not unlike the 1997 treaty which banned landmines.
It has been mentioned, repeatedly, in a number of news articles that thermobaric devices referred to as 'vacuum bombs' are prohibited by the Geneva Conventions, though which specific convention, article, or annex prohibits their usage has not been mentioned to my knowledge. Now it is of course quite possible that multiple news outlets, from a number of different continents, have it wrong and that 'vacuum bombs' are not prohibited, but since I readily admit to not knowing the full details of all the Geneva Conventions, or other elements of international law which relates to armed conflict, I am perfectly willing to defer to multiple media sources which have stated that such munitions are banned.
As a side note, IIRC napalm got added to a list of prohibited munitions by one of the treaty revisions done between GWI and GWII, and I suspect it would have been around the same time that at least some thermobaric devices were added, since fuel-air explosives were supposed to have been used against Iraqi forces during the air campaign of Desert Storm.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
I got more if you want. But it would be easier to search on twitter "ukraine cluster" and you'll see results ranging from videos of strikes to photos of munitions on the ground in identifiable condition.
Thermobaric weapons are not under a blanket ban though. They are used in a multitude of weapon types, including mine clearing.
It seems to me the punishment for usage of thermobarric in our reality depends on how often they were used, how many civilians died of it, and how much political weight and influence the user has.
It is in some kind of grey zone as I didn’t here of any particular movement to reduce them even if it is mentioned in the documents.
Moreover, Russia didn’t hesitate to use the forbidden weapons before, as the son of the person who I distantly know (he served as a Marine in Donbass) lost his leg due to a landmine a couple of years ago.
So I highly doubt they will get punished for this particular weapon (thermobarric) unless it will kill 10-100s people and it will get a lot of media and political attention.
It is in some kind of grey zone as I didn’t here of any particular movement to reduce them even if it is mentioned in the documents.
Moreover, Russia didn’t hesitate to use the forbidden weapons before, as the son of the person who I distantly know (he served as a Marine in Donbass) lost his leg due to a landmine a couple of years ago.
So I highly doubt they will get punished for this particular weapon (thermobarric) unless it will kill 10-100s people and it will get a lot of media and political attention.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #996
Ukraine doesn't have a population of 44 million. The real numbers are much lower. You have to exclude Crimea, an area Russia already controls without needing an occupation force, and the LDNR which have their own troops, and also don't require an occupation force (you technically should add LDNR force strength to Russia's). Add to that the fact that Ukraine hasn't had a census since 2000, and that multiple countries (Russia, Poland, Czech Republic) reported a massive influx of Ukrainian migrants post-'14, and the real numbers are much lower. I've seen estimates based on active cell phones, and bread consumption that put the number somewhere between 30-35 million. If you just subtract the population of Crimea and LDNR (~5.8 million) you get ~38 million. We don't really know how many people live in the government controlled parts of Ukraine, but it's not 44 million.
Not that this changes the argument about the size of the occupation forces needed all that much.
Bulgaria also denied it was sending jets to Ukraine. I'm still not sure this is actually happening. It seems complicated and unlikely to be productive. The same money would likely be better spent on other things. And given the speed of Russia's advance, I'm not sure those jets could be handed over in time to take meaningful part in the fighting.
cdxbow
Well-Known Member
When you let slip the dogs of war, you also let slip the furies of chaos and uncertainty. Mr Putin can't be a happy man with what fate has dealt him in the last 6 days, however he was the one who chose to roll the dice. So far:
He has lost the PR/propaganda/information war badly - Russia's disinformation defeat | TheHill
The cyberwar seems to be about even or irrelevant.
He has lost the formal diplomatic war. No ones rootin' for Putin. Russian allies are squirming uncomfortably.
He has failed to get the Russian populace on side and explain why an invasion was needed. This will get worse as the body bags come home.
He has made gains on the ground but at great cost. It must be thousands of lost souls now. Ukraine at this point in time looks like it's going to show resolve and a Russian occupation will be a bloody thing.
He has caused worsening economic sanctions on Russia.
He has made his 'useful idiots' in the West valueless. All those years building up links, influencers and supporters, thrown away in an instant.
Perhaps his greatest achievement, is that all by himself, he has managed to boost NATO, increase European defence spending, turn German foreign policy from its pacifistic nature and get the Europeans to agree he's a threat and act in concert - that's successfully herding cats!
He has judged this so badly I wonder if there is something wrong with him. Normally calm and pragmatic he has been anything but. This article talks a little about his erratic behaviour and even speculates about his health. Inside Vladimir Putin’s head – POLITICO
He has lost the PR/propaganda/information war badly - Russia's disinformation defeat | TheHill
The cyberwar seems to be about even or irrelevant.
He has lost the formal diplomatic war. No ones rootin' for Putin. Russian allies are squirming uncomfortably.
He has failed to get the Russian populace on side and explain why an invasion was needed. This will get worse as the body bags come home.
He has made gains on the ground but at great cost. It must be thousands of lost souls now. Ukraine at this point in time looks like it's going to show resolve and a Russian occupation will be a bloody thing.
He has caused worsening economic sanctions on Russia.
He has made his 'useful idiots' in the West valueless. All those years building up links, influencers and supporters, thrown away in an instant.
Perhaps his greatest achievement, is that all by himself, he has managed to boost NATO, increase European defence spending, turn German foreign policy from its pacifistic nature and get the Europeans to agree he's a threat and act in concert - that's successfully herding cats!
He has judged this so badly I wonder if there is something wrong with him. Normally calm and pragmatic he has been anything but. This article talks a little about his erratic behaviour and even speculates about his health. Inside Vladimir Putin’s head – POLITICO
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #998
Russia isn't a signatory to that treaty. So it strictly speaking wouldn't apply.
This would apply but you would have to prove the intent, which is notoriously difficult.
Thermobaric weapons are not illegal in principle, though some uses may be.
In an irony of ironies, waging an aggressive war is actually a crime by Russian laws. Russian Criminal Code article 353.
He might be in his mind to some extent, but I wonder what kind of info he gets. There are various people in his inner circle that can probably influence and manipulate him. It can even be (a bit of conspirology) that someone persuaded him to proceed with war to get rid of Putin in this way by presenting him as an unpopular crazy murderer, not as “a father of the nation”
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #1,000
I'm not sure about the thousands of lost souls. Many Russian vehicles are coming up abandoned, with or without damage, not destroyed. It seems that the biggest failure here is Russian vehicle evacuation services. They're traditionally bad in the Russian armed forces (there was an attempt made to address this over the last GPV but it was rather half-hearted). Not only are there not enough modern evacuator vehicles, but they very organizational structures are insufficient. Even with some lone destroyed vehicles we can't be sure if they were taken out in combat or burned by locals after being abandoned. I suspect the question of Russian losses will be a messy one for a long time to come with no clear answers. The days of the 5-day war when Russia just published a complete list of their KIA are sadly long gone.