The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Capt. Ironpants · Feb 25, 2022

danonz said:
not sure if this has been covered - Can any confirm if this is Russian or Ukrainian

Stuff

play.stuff.co.nz

Driver found alive after car flattened by Russian armored vehicle in Kyiv

I leave it to others here to identify whether Russian or Ukrainian (although I would guess Ukrainian) but it does not appear to me the car was targeted. It looks to me like it moving too fast on pavement and went into a skid and accidentally ran over the car.

I am curious why the lady was not burned at all. There was this old fellow who was run over by a tank in former Yugoslavia (lying flat on the road) and he was burned red all over, his hair, eyebrows, etc, singed off. He stayed red and looked like he had been boiled in oil for weeks and weeks. The explanation my military officer friends gave me was the exhaust from the tank burned him. How was this lady totally unscathed after the thing sat on her all that time? I'm not saying it's fake. Perhaps those vehicles don't have hot exhaust or something. I leave it to the military experts here. I am quite puzzled.

Edited to add: This video has been all over the place today here in the States.

Feanor · Feb 26, 2022

koxinga said:
IMO, the opening attacks were restrained and perhaps to minimize casualties.

The question is when will the Russians turn up a notch; if and when they decide to take the gloves off, it would be bloody and they probably won't care about civilian casualties

This same claim was made by colonelcassad, claiming that Russia intentionally didn't hit Ukraine's army units as hard as they could expecting that they might be willing to surrender. Some of Russia's troops around Kharkov in early videos looked like traffic cops directing traffic and setting up checkpoints. It's entirely plausible that Russian planners expected less resistance and less willingness to fight. Then again, it's also not clear how much willingness there actually is. So far the fighting has been sporadic. Russian units around Sumy and Kharkov encountered hard resistance, but from the north and the south far less. And Ukrainian counter-attacks in the south seem to have gone badly.

Ananda · Feb 26, 2022

Capt. Ironpants said:
just realized this might sound snarky, but I do not mean it that way. It is an honest question.

Understand, as I've put in my previous information, the Russian specialise financial market people that I have talk before speculating on Putin carving Ukraine to build barrier.

It can be small states like in Georgia, or one new Republic of Eastern Ukraine. That's why I believe one of reasons the global financial market after bit jittery on first day of invasion, then stabilize next day. Aside despite all the talks of EU and US sweeping financial embargo, market still see this is will still be relative limited incursion (then worst case prediction before).

Seeing the movement of incursion so far, seems still in line with market prediction.

Capt. Ironpants · Feb 26, 2022

Reports of two Il-76s downed near Kiev. One quotes Ukrainian intelligence services via The Kyiv Independent:

2 Russian transport jets shot down as attacks continue in Kyiv: Reports

Attacks happening closer to the city centre

www.theweek.in

The other quotes "American officials":

US officials say 2 Russian transport planes shot down over Ukraine

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

OPSSG · Feb 26, 2022

Post 3 of 4: Sharing some inchoate thoughts on war in Ukraine

8. Russia assembled a 169,000-190,000 strong force just in case its best case scenario did not occur. This number includes the Rosgvardia/Ministry of Internal Affairs troops and Russian-backed LNR/DNR rebel forces.

koxinga said:
The question is when will the Russians turn up a notch; if and when they decide to take the gloves off, it would be bloody and they probably won't care about civilian casualties

9. Half of the Russian ready forces in the BTGs hasn't even been committed into Ukraine — IMO, the Russians will escalate and it will get uglier if they fail to achieve their political goals, in the next week. This far, the Russian Army have exercised a degree of restraint in the use of force. But given that the initial light-weight invasion approach has not gone as well, this may change and we will see greater use of artillery.

Capt. Ironpants said:
Reports of two Il-76s downed near Kiev. One quotes Ukrainian intelligence services via The Kyiv Independent:

10. I think this is real. AP confirms via US DoD sources that not one but TWO Il-76s were shot down roughly 50 miles south of Kyiv during a major airborne assault operation.

Toptob · Feb 26, 2022

I saw this report on marineschepen.nl and it seems CNN and this website are also reporting that the Russian navy has performed amphibious assaults in the Sea of Azov to the West of Mariupol. They say that according to the Pentagon the Russians landed "thousands of troops". I can't find anything about this on this livemap and I don't remember seeing it here, so is this nonsense or have I missed something? Has it been debunked already?

I do remember seeing a report somewhere that they where loading troops onto transports, and I've been wondering what happened with those and where they would be landing. Personally I expected them to land somewhere West of Mariupol, so it makes sense to me. But if they landed in the afternoon I would've expected to see reports about it from sources beside the Pentagon. And I haven't seen anything about any fighting near the west of Mariupol. There's plenty about contacts in and around Melitopol but that's a bit far to the West to be an Amphibious pincer movement on Mariupol.

I have also seen a report about a failed amphibious assault near Odessa, but the map shows it just to the West of Ochakiv and it indicates a bunch of military installations near that place what looks to be some sort of naval facility. And to the West (some 20 miles) of the indicated landing zone there are some more military installations. In fact, all along that stretch of coastline I can see on google maps what look to be dispersal sites for something like shore launched ASM launchers or air defense.

It doesn't look like a very inviting place for an amphibious landing, and it's too far away to support the assault on Kherson and I don't get why they would assault Odessa. None of their other assaults are moving in that direction so the assault would be largely on its own for a while, or would they be thinking about a pincer attack from transnistria and what repercussions would that bring with it involving another country in this mess even closer to a NATO border?

I do wonder what happened with those landing ships though, because they went to a lot of hassle to preposition amphibious assets from the Northern and Baltic fleets. There should be at least 9 Ropucha's an Ivan Gren and some old Alligators in the Black Sea area. Last I heard the Ivan Gren class ship was in the Sea of Azov with at least two Ropucha's but I've seen nothing after that.

Capt. Ironpants · Feb 26, 2022

OPSSG said:
10. I think this is real. AP confirms via US DoD sources that not one but TWO Il-76s were shot down roughly 50 miles south of Kyiv during a major airborne assault operation.

Isn't it awfully risky (perhaps even reckless) sending those big pokey things into an unsecured area? I apologize for my ignorance about these things.

Edited to fix messed-up quote box.

Feanor · Feb 26, 2022

Toptob said:
I saw this report on marineschepen.nl and it seems CNN and this website are also reporting that the Russian navy has performed amphibious assaults in the Sea of Azov to the West of Mariupol. They say that according to the Pentagon the Russians landed "thousands of troops". I can't find anything about this on this livemap and I don't remember seeing it here, so is this nonsense or have I missed something? Has it been debunked already?

It has not, this would line up with reports above of a troop landing near Melitopol'. That's what's west of Mariupol' (well that and Berdyansk).

I do remember seeing a report somewhere that they where loading troops onto transports, and I've been wondering what happened with those and where they would be landing. Personally I expected them to land somewhere West of Mariupol, so it makes sense to me. But if they landed in the afternoon I would've expected to see reports about it from sources beside the Pentagon. And I haven't seen anything about any fighting near the west of Mariupol. There's plenty about contacts in and around Melitopol but that's a bit far to the West to be an Amphibious pincer movement on Mariupol.

There are also regular ground troops heading out of Crimea that way.

I have also seen a report about a failed amphibious assault near Odessa, but the map shows it just to the West of Ochakiv and it indicates a bunch of military installations near that place what looks to be some sort of naval facility. And to the West (some 20 miles) of the indicated landing zone there are some more military installations. In fact, all along that stretch of coastline I can see on google maps what look to be dispersal sites for something like shore launched ASM launchers or air defense.

It doesn't look like a very inviting place for an amphibious landing, and it's too far away to support the assault on Kherson and I don't get why they would assault Odessa. None of their other assaults are moving in that direction so the assault would be largely on its own for a while, or would they be thinking about a pincer attack from transnistria and what repercussions would that bring with it involving another country in this mess even closer to a NATO border?

There are Russian ships off the Odessa coast, so presumably a landing is a matter of time, it might be synchronized with the fall of Nikolaev and advance of troops from the south. It's pretty crazy that a push out of Crimea is getting much better results that the move on Kharkov.

Feanor · Feb 26, 2022

Capt. Ironpants said:
Isn't it awfully risky (perhaps even reckless) sending those big pokey things into an unsecured area? I apologize for my ignorance about these things.

Edited to fix messed-up quote box.

Russia seems to have launched some very ambitious air-assault operations at Gostomel' and now Vasilkov airfields to cut off Kiev from the west. The first failed to secure a landing for larger troop formations, the second apparently looked secure enough, and then didn't work out quite as planned.

OPSSG · Feb 26, 2022

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497428052988641281

Zelenskyy said, “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.” Whatever happens the next few weeks, in Ukraine's collective memory, President Zelenskyy will live forever.

Capt. Ironpants said:
Isn't it awfully risky (perhaps even reckless) sending those big pokey things into an unsecured area? I apologize for my ignorance about these things.

There is nothing wrong with Russian plans, it’s normal execution risk in any airborne or heliborne operations — part of the planning process is to provide for contingencies — like aircraft malfunction or being shot down. IMO, the Ukrainian Army intelligence assessment was spot on and they predicted the jump and had SAM assets in place.

All professional armies are to some extent predictable — due to common staff planning process. The Russian Army wants to use its airborne troops to speed their advance and need to take some risks to get the pay off. In this case, it did not work out as planned.

Steinmetz · Feb 26, 2022

Looks like a Mi-24 did a bit of damage to some Ukrainian units along a highway.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497441206221127685

Ukrainian tanks in wooded ambush positions facing the approaches to Kiev.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497444747106926594

Looks like it was only light VDV and SoF engaging inside Kiev itself. Relatively sporadic. It's dawn now, still no photographic or video evidence of downed Il-76. With a plane that big, debris field would be big.

Still seeing several conflicting reports of Zelensky - Putin agreements to negotiations.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497445766826283011

It's clear Ukraine has had some good success for now. I am also surprised that Russian had less opposition in the south and more around Kharkiv.

Feanor · Feb 26, 2022

Update.

The Fighting.
In Kiev.

There is sporadic firing all over Kiev. It appears that handing out a ton of automatic weapons to random civilians was not a good idea. Who would have thought. Also the 101st Brigade, which is the guard unit for Ukraine's General HQ, is getting hit by strikes.

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