The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has denied reports in Russian-state media that Kyiv was planning to launch an offensive on the areas held by Russian-backed rebels in the country's eastern Donbas region.

"We categorically refute Russian disinformation reports on Ukraine’s alleged offensive operations or acts of sabotage in chemical production facilities," Kuleba wrote in a Twitter post.

"Ukraine does not conduct or plan any such actions in the Donbas. We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only."


Putin promises money support to "refugees" from Donbas, and have order construction of refugee camps for the "refugees". BBC reports that there has been no signs of significant number of people leaving Donbas yet. Also, according to BBC, no evidence has so far been presented of shelling of Donbas.

Ukraine tensions: Russian troop build-up is biggest in Europe since WW2 says US - BBC News
 

Feanor

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Saakashvili was probably mentally unstable. In any case, Ukrainian leadership has both the benefit of hindsight from the "Georgia incident" that you refer to, but have also been exposed to Russian aggression since 2014. The Russian troops are much more capable than in 2008. Also, the buildup of Russian troops around Ukraine is unprecedented, with more than 150,000 soldiers! What is the logic of attacking Donbass now? If Ukraine did so, they would lose everything. Russia would have a pretext to invade, and Ukraine would lose goodwill and sympathy in Europe, US and Canada. As I said, it would be suicidal. What Georgia did in 2008, even with the limited information available at that time, was stupid. For Ukraine to become aggressive now, given what we know about the Russian playbook in combination with the current situation, would be insane.

Russia has plenty of agents within Ukraine. Russia has also plenty of experience in planning and executing false flag operations.

Note that Russia is now claiming that OSCE is not to be trusted anymore. So after being a respected and unbiased observer of the conflict for so many years, they are suddenly, at this particular moment, becoming unreliable and biased? Very convenient for the rebels, and for Russia.
In my opinion neither side has anything to gain from an offensive. It would be suicidal for Ukraine but also catastrophic for Russia. Again, it remains to be seen. Shellings like this are somewhat above the norm, but so far nothing beyond what we have seen many times before when this conflict flared up. If Ukrainian infantry is assaulting the outskirts of Donetsk, and Ukrainian armor tries to break through rebel lines to encircle their positions, it will be obvious that we're dealing with a Ukrainian offensive. If there's some shelling, followed by one egregious incident (false flag or otherwise) of civilian deaths in rebel territory, and then Russia moves on Ukraine, we'll know it was a Russian offensive.

Please don't quote TASS only. TASS is full of disinformation from Moscow.
Not in this case though. There are in fact shells landing in Donetsk. I've linked multiple videos above.
 

denix56

Active Member
The Ukrainian Army was told to stop any fire, they answered only (according to the Ukrainian commanders and Radio Liberty reports) when there was a direct threat to the soldiers.

I would not believe TASS. Ukraine called for the urgent meeting of Ukraine, OSCE and LDNR, but LDNR refused. There was literally no proof of any actions performed by Ukraine.
The was an often practice of firing artillery from towns / villages to cause casualities when the Ukraine fired back. And in case the UA army didnt fire back - they fired themselves.

According to the local forums of Donetsk / Lugansk people are not very keen to leave - they are afraid that their houses will be robbed or that the buses will be destroyed to show it as the attack of UA army.

There is around 700k people live in that region. Russia states, that places for 10k people will be prepared near Rostov. I can see all of it only as a show, as there is no way to move all the people to Russia and they definitely do not want nearly 1M people there and pay everyone 10k RUB.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
Please don't quote TASS only. TASS is full of disinformation from Moscow.
That is true, but it's also true that the Ukrainian Army has up-ticked the usage of heavy artillery. The OSCE gave an update to the UN security council just yesterday, and noted that both sides have increasingly violated the Minsk agreements.


Picture of busses lined up, evacuating civilians.


The Russian media is amplifying the narrative regarding Donbass. Starting to feel more and more ominous by the hour. Internally, it seems a lot of Russian pundits are pushing for conflict, many whom are critical of Putin, claiming he's not doing enough, by not resolving the issue by force. That being said, I wonder if Putin might just be angling for a limited intervention and occupying the Donbass formally. We still can't be sure of any intentions and to what extent till something happens.

Like Feanor pointed out:
Shellings like this are somewhat above the norm, but so far nothing beyond what we have seen many times before when this conflict flared up.
The shellings are nothing new, but the Russian media are certainly making it out to look like a dire situation. There latest moves tells me that we're moving to some sort of conflict stage now. The narrative is being formulated, all it'll take is a well crafted False Flag or incident to set into motion.


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Feanor

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The Ukrainian Army was told to stop any fire, they answered only (according to the Ukrainian commanders and Radio Liberty reports) when there was a direct threat to the soldiers.
Radio Liberty is about as trustworthy as TASS. I'm also not surprised if orders are given publicly are one thing, and orders disseminated directly in front line units are another.

I would not believe TASS. Ukraine called for the urgent meeting of Ukraine, OSCE and LDNR, but LDNR refused. There was literally no proof of any actions performed by Ukraine.
The was an often practice of firing artillery from towns / villages to cause casualities when the Ukraine fired back. And in case the UA army didnt fire back - they fired themselves.
I have not seen any convincing evidence that the rebels fired on their own towns. I have seen many, often blatantly false, claims of this from Ukraine. If you have some, please share.

According to the local forums of Donetsk / Lugansk people are not very keen to leave - they are afraid that their houses will be robbed or that the buses will be destroyed to show it as the attack of UA army.

There is around 700k people live in that region. Russia states, that places for 10k people will be prepared near Rostov. I can see all of it only as a show, as there is no way to move all the people to Russia and they definitely do not want nearly 1M people there and pay everyone 10k RUB.
Not sure if you're referring to the city of Donetsk, but the overall population of the rebel held regions is considered to be around 3.5 million. When you consider that pre-war Donetsk and Lugansk alone made up ~1.5 million, this number isn't that far fetched. As far as the scale of evacuation, and reluctance of locals to leave, I fully believe the preparations will be wholly inadequate and the locals are right to worry about looters. Not only are the LDNR authorities not very good at preserving public order, but their own state agencies service members may get involved in the looting.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
Things seems to be getting more fluid by the hour. "Apparently" a gas pipeline has been blown up in Luhansk. Not sure how significant that is, or if it's actually been blown up, since it's coming from Russian sources. Something big looks to be burning though.

❗Сообщается о взрыве в Луганске. По информации.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

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I also noticed U.K. and U.S. RC135s have pulled back their heavy continuous operations past two days, instead have been using RQ-4 Global Hawks.
One under the name FORTE10 and another under the name FORTE12. FORTE10 is currently tracking over Ukraine.

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Russia has decided to invade Ukraina. In a couple of days or weeks they will start the offensive, we are saying this already for a couple of weeks, but its true!

Thats actually what Biden is saying.


And also in this newsarticle they are talkung about the blown up gas pipe.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...Not sure if you're referring to the city of Donetsk, but the overall population of the rebel held regions is considered to be around 3.5 million. When you consider that pre-war Donetsk and Lugansk alone made up ~1.5 million, this number isn't that far fetched. ...
The combined population of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts before the war was about 6.6 million. Allowing for the parts of those oblasts which remained in Ukrainian hands & a decline in population to about 6.2 million, 3.5 million seems reasonable for the rebel held area.
 

Feanor

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Update.

Russia.

Putin has ordered one time payments of 10 000 roubles to refugees from the rebel territories. The area is quite poor so it's possible that this alone will be an incentive for some people.


Chechen soldiers near the Ukrainian border.


BM-27s moving around in Bryansk.


Helos over Belgorod.


T-90A, BMP-3, BREM-L, and MTLBs in Belgorod region.


Russia is calling up reservists on training exercises. No idea of size of location.


Russian MChS is deploying to Rostov region. Head of the MChS Chupriyan is among the team.


A rare MT-LB variant was spotted leaving Crimea. They're carrying combat modules with 14.5mm machineguns or 30mm cannons (depending on the variant). They're associated with the 34th Mountain Bde.


The rebels.

Exchanges of fire continue between the rebels and Ukrainian forces. Some sources are claiming it's the largest since 2014, which is of course untrue. The Jan-Feb campaign of 2015 was certainly larger. Pushilin, head of the DNR, claims the entire situation is leading to war.


DNR sources are claiming two attempts were made by fighters from the Ukrainian side to destroy a chlorine storage facility and ammonium storage facility. In one case a guard was wounded preventing the placement of an IED at the facility.


A region-restricted video of the fire-fight near Gorlovka. Allegedly the fighters from Ukrainian side tried to destroy a chlorine storage facility.


An UAZ jeep belonging to the commander of the DNR forces was blown up. He was not in the vehicle at the time. Also a gas line in Lugansk region exploded.


The DNR is planning to evacuate 700 000 people from their territory. I'm assuming I misunderstood denix56 and this is what he was referring to.


The evacuation video from the rebels was apparently filmed two days in advance.


Footage of the evacuation, note the large numbers of children. It's plausible they're mainly evacuating children. A local orphanage is among the first being evacuated. According to DNR sources, women, children, and the elderly are first.


A traffic jam on the road to a Russian border checkpoint.


A line of people at the military commissariat in Lugansk, presumably volunteers.


Ukraine.

Another delivery of Javelin ATGMs, this time from Estonia, has arrived.

 

Feanor

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Update.

General mobilization has been declared in the LNR and DNR, preventing all external travel for all males ages 18-55. In Rostov region the governor has declared a state of emergency due to the large number of evacuees from the rebel areas.


T-72B3Ms unloading straight onto the road near a village in Belgorod region.


A snapshot of helos at Millerovo airfield in Rostov region.


The pontoon bridge seen in Belarus in the exclusion zone is now gone.


Ukrainian troop movements in Kharkov.

 

Rock the kasbah

Active Member
Update.

General mobilization has been declared in the LNR and DNR, preventing all external travel for all males ages 18-55. In Rostov region the governor has declared a state of emergency due to the large number of evacuees from the rebel areas.


T-72B3Ms unloading straight onto the road near a village in Belgorod region.


A snapshot of helos at Millerovo airfield in Rostov region.


The pontoon bridge seen in Belarus in the exclusion zone is now gone.


Ukrainian troop movements in Kharkov.

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ngatimozart

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Why I fail to understand is why would the Ukrainians be firing on separatist positions? It's counter productive as it could be the very pretext Russia needs.
Exactly. It doesn't make sense from an Ukrainian POV. I suspect Russian black ops here along with the blowing up of the militia leaders 4 x 4 and the gas pipe explosion.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Assuming it wasn't a Russian black op the only plausible conclusion I can think of is that it was the work of a Ukranian commander who acting on his own initiative or authority in response to.something the separatists did. Even that however seems unlikely given that Ukrainian commanders will be operating under strict ROEs.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Everything is fluid now. However if I'm betting Man, (as I have put in early part of this thread) Putin convince that West will not ever going to give him guarantee of no further NATO expansion. Thus the scenario to carve Ukraine seems going to be the choice.

Better have Pro Russia Eastern Ukraine Republic as the West Ukraine will be NATO sooner or later. Seems the thinkin in Moscow going to that way. So it does not matter who put the first shoot anyway.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Things have been fluid for a while now actually, they have however become dicier. It's either he invades or doesn't. He can't keep.his troops forward deployed and at a high state of operational readiness indefinitely. The issue oo who shoots first becomes irrelevant after conflict erupts but it does add to the narrative when one seeks political justification.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The issue of who shoots first becomes irrelevant after conflict erupts but it does add to the narrative when one seeks political justification.
Will it matter later on (assuming the conflict is already in irreversible path) ? Seems the global community already divide to those with Russia, those with Ukraine, and those who doesn't care.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Might not matter per see but countries, whether it was Germany before invading the Soviet Union, the Grits, French and Usrralis going into Egypt or the U.S. performing regime change in Iraq, tend to want to.shape the political narrative to shape domestic, as well as international.opinion. Personally I don't see why Putin needs any justification or the need for black ops, given that he's reportedly voiced out his grievances with NATO/the West.
 
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