The unstable situation in Myanmar.

[koxinga]

Cable: 07SINGAPORE1932_a (wikileaks.org)

Lee Kuan Yew's private comments (2007) on Burma rings true even today. Singapore was one of the earliest to reach out Burma with significant investments, even going as far as to open a supermarket (Fairprice) back in 95 in Yangon... Despite all of that, he came to the conclusions that the generals were "dense" and "stupid". He said that Burma's ambassador in Singapore had told MFA that Burma could "survive any sanctions" due to its natural resources. Lee said dealing with the regime was like "talking to dead people." Sounds a lot like today.

The insular and militant identity of the Tatmadaw, in my opinion is shaped by their independence history and the key role of BIA as well as decades of counter insurgency wars starting with the KMT hangovers post Chinese civil war and with the various armed ethnic groups. They see their role as essential to the continued existence of the country as well as Bamar identify.

If what I've read is correct the Tatmadaw has turned into a caste which keeps itself apart from most of the population. Officers, in particular, marry into other military families. They live in military cantonments separated from civilians. Their children go to military schools, run by the armed forces for the children of military families. They're more like an occupying or colonial army than a national army.

It is a british colonial hangover. The stratetgy is described succinently in this summary (The Cantonments of Northern India: Colonialism and the Counter Urban, 1765–1889). Unfortunately, the full article is embargoed but the key points around enabling the army to disengage with local populations, co-inhabiting territory while maintaining discreet distances is exactly how it works. That they have taken it further to create a parallel social structure is remarkable.

The India Army retains 64 cantonments (Cantonments | Directorate General Defence Estates) but we don't see IA in the same light as the Tatmadaw.

 

[swerve]

The difference is that the British didn't form a permanent military caste: the membership changed. Brothers of ancestors of mine were in the British army, & they didn't remain in India forever. Regiments were sent out, & came back, e.g. two who I have the discharge papers of each spent about 20 years in the army then returned to civilian life. One spent about half of his service in Asia, mostly in India but including SE Asia. The other spent most of his career out east, from Afghanistan (1840-42) to Australia, including Burma & India. One was back in England half way through his service (turned up in his home village with a wife in tow after fighting in Indonesia during the Napoleonic Wars), then went to India, where his wife died, & he remarried after he was discharged & came home. Passage home on the next available ship when your time was up was part of the package. Those two were neither the sons nor fathers of soldiers, & nor were any of the others I've identified in my family - & that was normal.

Officers were often the sons of officers, & the (East India Company, later British) Indian Army had officers who spent most of their lives in India, but even they kept attachments to the UK which weren't military, & often (more often than not, I think) married into non-military families.

And of course, the Indian army was mostly made up of Indians, & rather diverse ones speaking many languages & of various religions, so the formation of a homogeneous military caste was rather difficult.

 

[ngatimozart]

The difference is that the British didn't form a permanent military caste: the membership changed. Brothers of ancestors of mine were in the British army, & they didn't remain in India forever. Regiments were sent out, & came back, e.g. two who I have the discharge papers of each spent about 20 years in the army then returned to civilian life. One spent about half of his service in Asia, mostly in India but including SE Asia. The other spent most of his career out east, from Afghanistan (1840-42) to Australia, including Burma & India. One was back in England half way through his service (turned up in his home village with a wife in tow after fighting in Indonesia during the Napoleonic Wars), then went to India, where his wife died, & he remarried after he was discharged & came home. Passage home on the next available ship when your time was up was part of the package. Those two were neither the sons nor fathers of soldiers, & nor were any of the others I've identified in my family - & that was normal.

Officers were often the sons of officers, & the (East India Company, later British) Indian Army had officers who spent most of their lives in India, but even they kept attachments to the UK which weren't military, & often (more often than not, I think) married into non-military families.

And of course, the Indian army was mostly made up of Indians, & rather diverse ones speaking many languages & of various religions, so the formation of a homogeneous military caste was rather difficult.

My great grandfather (Irish) on my father's side was in the British Indian Army as was his father before him. The old boy retired as a RSM at the end of WW1 back to Belfast before emigrating here. He had no sense of humour and passed that on to his daughter, dad's mum. She was born in India and bought up in the British Indian Army society. Dad said that the old boy used to fire up real easily, which as a kid he regularly caused the old boy to do because he was mischievous as. It's quite interesting when you look back.

 

[Rob c]

My great grandfather (Irish) on my father's side was in the British Indian Army as was his father before him. The old boy retired as a RSM at the end of WW1 back to Belfast before emigrating here. He had no sense of humour and passed that on to his daughter, dad's mum. She was born in India and bought up in the British Indian Army society. Dad said that the old boy used to fire up real easily, which as a kid he regularly caused the old boy to do because he was mischievous as. It's quite interesting when you look back.

I think that RSM's in the army and SWO's in the air force, to pass selection for the role had to pass a test to ensure they had no sense of humour. In my time as a kid running around Waiouru and 20 years in the RNZAF I never found one that had a sense of humour, even when you ran into them in the SNCO's mess at various locations.

 

[OPSSG]

Tatmadaw celebrates X’mas & New Year by conducting attacks on towns & villages before meeting the ASEAN Chairman

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1478560729846333441

1. Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen will “discuss and exchange views” with Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing “on bilateral and multilateral cooperation and the recent developments in Asean” on his 7 to Jan 2022 visit. Bad enough that Cambodian PM Hun Sen, representing ASEAN, proposes to meet with the Myanmar coup leader. Despite guidance from Jokowi on the need for progress on the implementation of 5-Point Concensus, the junta won't let Hun Sen meet with detained pro-democracy leaders.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1478942943490686979

2. Meanwhile, needed medicines, medical equipment, teaching materials and office supplies donated by Nippon foundation, were destroyed by the Tatmadaw. Houses, and shops were also raided by troops stationed in Lay Kay Kaw. As others have noted, the identity of the Tatmadaw, is shaped by their independence history. Since Dec 2021, the Tatmadaw has attacked Lay Kay Kaw numerous times, and human rights organisations are responding to the unfolding humanitarian crisis and documenting the human rights situation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1478975879036358657

3. Yet another burning village in Myanmar. Thangtlang is reportedly burning today for 18th time since Sept 9.

 

[koxinga]

Concerns Over Hun Sen’s Aims Ahead of ASEAN Chair’s Visit

Myanmar citizens and foreign observers fear the Cambodian prime minister’s trip will legitimize the military regime.

www.irrawaddy.com

Hun Sen is expected in Myanmar today. I have no problems with back channel dialogue and engagement, which at least makes the point known the military rulers what the rest of the world thinks and what is expected for normalisation. But a sitting ASEAN Chair visiting Myanmar is poor optics for ASEAN.

Notably, the member states, especially the more vocal ones like Indonesia are silent on this trip, not putting out any statements on how they hope this can improve the situation. Says a lot about what they think.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

A growing number of soldiers are deserting the Burmese army

The shadow government hopes helping them escape will weaken the Tatmadaw

www.economist.com

(With the Economist you can usually view for free in Private Browsing mode. For now I've copied some extracts.)

Since the coup, some 2,000 soldiers and 6,000 police officers have fled to territory controlled by rebel forces, according to the National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow government made up of deposed parliamentarians which helps organise resistance to the junta. It is likely that other soldiers have gone into hiding or fled the country. Many of those who have crossed over to the resistance have been helped by People’s Embrace and People’s Soldiers, organisations started by former soldiers who help troops flee. Both co-ordinate their activities with the NUG and some of the sympathetic ethnic-minority rebel groups in the country’s borderlands.

...

“[The] defection programme is vital,” says Yee Mon, the NUG’s defence minister, arguing that it may help bring about the downfall of the junta and in a way that minimises violence. Yet he admits that only a tiny proportion of servicemen have actually deserted so far. The Tatmadaw is thought to number some 300,000 soldiers and the police around 80,000. Nyi Thu Ta, a former army captain and a founder of People’s Soldiers, says that at least 10,000 soldiers would need to defect for “a crack in the military to become obvious”.

...

For every soldier who defects to the resistance, there are likely to be far more who desert. According to Ye Myo Hein of the Wilson Centre, an American think-tank, between 5,000 and 7,000 soldiers abandoned the army every year before the coup. The figure in 2021 was probably much higher. No matter why they run, fleeing soldiers will recognise how Mr Ange Lay felt when he drove out of the barracks. “I felt I was so free...It was like dropping something, a burden I had been shouldering for so many years.”

Interesting that there have been defections already. I have no information as to whether this was mostly a one-off or a consistent number that might increase.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 3: Cambodia’s Hun Sen needs to be managed

1. Hun Sen’s invite to Min Aung Hlaing to attend the ASEAN summit is conditional on progress in the implementation of the 5-Point Concensus. As new chair of ASEAN, Cambodia has indicated it wants to engage not isolate the junta, but Hun Sen has been pressed by several ASEAN leaders, including those of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, not to give way on the 5-Point Concensus. The ASEAN consensus includes halting offensives and granting full access to a special ASEAN envoy to all parties in the conflict.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1486506608871948288

2. On 14 Jan 2022, Prime Minister Hun Sen briefed Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Cambodia’s ASEAN Chairmanship priorities and agenda for 2022. Prime Minister Lee reaffirmed Singapore’s support for Cambodia’s 2022 ASEAN Chairmanship and thanked Prime Minister Hun Sen for the briefing on his recent visit to Myanmar.

3. The UN Special Envoy, Ms. Noeleen Heyzer, underlined her readiness to help strengthen regional efforts towards effective urgent implementation of the “Five-Point Consensus,” aligned with the will of the people of Myanmar. The UN Special Envoy stressed that a Myanmar-led process, that is guided by the will of the people, towards a peaceful, democratic and inclusive future needed to be supported by a coherent international approach grounded on regional unity. She highlighted an UN-ASEAN “humanitarian plus” umbrella could coordinate and deliver assistance to affected communities through all existing channels, and address the multiple priority needs of the people across the country. This would include civilian protection as well as food security, socio-economic resilience, humanitarian and COVID assistance. The UN Special Envoy also welcomed the Prime Minister Hun Sen’s invitation to co-facilitate such efforts.

4. On 16 Jan 2022, the Philippines said that it work with Norway, as President of the Security Council, in finding ways to end the killings in Myanmar that have dragged on for a year, far too long for that country’s suffering people. The Philippines offers the most explicit position of the original ASEAN-5, thus far, despite Cambodia’s efforts to tilt the process in favour of the junta. Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore are against legitimizing junta. But Cambodia along with Laos, and Vietnam, think there's no other option.

(a) “I will work with ASEAN colleagues in the next few weeks to find measures to ease the suffering of the people of Myanmar, and push for dialogue among all stakeholders, most especially Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and substantial progress in the Five-Point Consensus of ASEAN,” Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. said in a statement. Locsin also condemns sentencing Aung San Suu Kyi and insists that ASEAN Special Envoy "talks must include all, not just a select few…”​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1482986078495772675

(b) With Cambodia chairing ASEAN, China's leadership senses an opportunity as, during Cambodia’s previous chairing, it was particularly friendly towards Beijing's interests. Keeping in mind that Hun Sen has been Cambodian PM since 30 Nov 1998. His tenure of more than 23 years (even longer than Putin), with no intention of stepping down, means ASEAN as on organisation cannot work without undue Chinese influence.​

​

5. On 25 Jan 2022, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob told his Cambodian counterpart Hun Sen that Malaysia will not support any attempts to invite political representatives from Myanmar to ASEAN meetings.

6. Prime Minister Lee and Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi have excellent rapport — Singapore will not forget the friendship with the people of Myanmar — what Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is doing, and his conduct of the coup will not be accepted by ASEAN, with Singapore as a member.

(a) Prime Minister Lee on 14 Jan 2022, noted that there had not been any significant progress in the implementation of ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus since its adoption on 24 April 2021 at a meeting at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta between ASEAN Leaders and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Prime Minister Lee expressed his view that until there was significant progress in implementing the 5-Point Concensus, ASEAN should maintain its decision reached at the 38th and 39th ASEAN Summits of inviting a non-political representative from Myanmar to ASEAN meetings.​

(b) During a bilateral meeting in Bintan, the Indonesian President and Singaporean Prime Minister discussed bilateral issues as well as the latest development in Myanmar. On 25 Jan 2022, Prime Minister Lee said that Singapore will continue to work with Asean Chair Cambodia in 2022, and the next Asean Chair, Indonesia, and other Asean member states on the full implementation of the Five-Point Consensus and other relevant Asean decisions. Let me translate that diplomatic statement into normal speech — he has given up on Cambodia and can’t wait for Indonesia’s turn to be ASEAN Chairman.​

 

[Rock the kasbah]

Tatmadaw: Myanmar's notoriously brutal military

Known as the Tatmadaw, it has shocked the world by killing hundreds of civilians in a crackdown.

www.bbc.com

For anyone new to this discussion I found this ( while obviously a glossary ) to be well written and informative.
For the old hands if there is some B/S in there let us know

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 3: Cambodia’s Hun Sen needs to be managed

7. A year ago the military junta seized power in Myanmar, trampling upon democracy. The military junta that overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi and her elected government on 1 Feb 2021 stands accused of crimes against humanity for abuses including mass killings, and torture. A year after a coup in Myanmar, the country's economy is crippled, public institutions are collapsing, and thousands of civilians have been killed. Once loud and colorful daily protests have been replaced by an eerie quiet.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1489117390839422976

8. Many countries within ASEAN, like Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore stand with the people of Myanmar in the face of brutal military violence, a humanitarian crisis, and the detention of political opponents. Cambodia will play host to the three-day ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat from 15 to 17 Feb 2022, where most ASEAN foreign ministers will be meeting in person, notably without the presence of Myanmar’s political rep. As it stands, ASEAN will not invite the military junta to the forth coming ASEAN summit due to lack of progress of the 5 point ASEAN consensus. I hope that a path to democracy will be restored in time.

 

[Ananda]

8. …As it stands, ASEAN will not invite the military junta to the forth coming ASEAN summit due to lack of progress of the 5 point ASEAN consensus. I hope that a path to democracy will be restored in time

I concur on that, at least from Indonesia stand point.

Kamboja Dekati Myanmar, Indonesia Tegaskan Posisi Terhadap Pemimpin Junta - Tribunnews.com

Indonesia kembali menegaskan posisinya soal Myanmar, berkaitan dengan langkah Kamboja yang melakukan pendekatan berbeda mengatasi krisis di Myanmar.

www.tribunnews.com

5 point consensus still being the Indonesian position in Myanmar point. However I also talk with a friend from Indonesian Foreign Ministry that saying the situation in the ground just getting bleaker. There's no sign Tatmadaw willing to give any inch moreover that Civilian Political factions taking guns with the help of Ethnics insurgance.

Despite all the talk in Western Media of Civil Wars and Tatmadaw getting push back, at least talking to colleague from one Indonesian SOE Bank (that have branch there), Tatmadaw control on contrary just getting firmer.

Thus I just don't see this going to end soon.

 

[Rock the kasbah]

STATEMENT: Foreign minister on Myanmar coup anniversary - APDR

As we mark one year since the military coup in Myanmar, Australia reiterates its call on the military to halt violence against civilians and return the country to the path of democracy.

asiapacificdefencereporter.com

A message from Australia's Foreign Minister

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 3: Cambodia’s Hun Sen needs to be managed

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1492439081149779972

9. We know that Myanmar’s military junta needs foreign cash from oil and gas revenues. Targeted sanctions can be of limited help. The EU, ASEAN and others can signal their willingness to make the military junta pay for their ongoing atrocities. But if fighting is the norm, ASEAN will stand powerless to stop further escalation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490701887573790721

10. It is now confirmed that the foreign minister of Myanmar’s military regime was not invited to the 15 to 17 Feb 2022 ASEAN ministerial retreat.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 2: ASEAN taking steps to isolate Myanmar’s military regime

1. Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia have worked behind the scenes to isolate Myanmar’s military regime. The ASEAN foreign ministers endorsed the appointment of DPM Sokhonn as the ASEAN Chair’s Special Envoy on Myanmar. They had a frank exchange on the situation in Myanmar and expressed concern with reports of continued violence, deterioration of the humanitarian situation and the lack of progress in the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus.

​

(a) On 18 Feb 2020, ASEAN foreign ministers released a statement on developments in Myanmar, where they expressed “deep concerns over the situation in the country… [and] urged the authorities in Naypyitaw to take concrete actions to effectively and fully implement the Five-Point Consensus reached at the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting on 24 April 2021.”​

​

(b) Only a month and a half into assuming the rotating leadership of ASEAN, Cambodia’s prime minister admitted that Myanmar’s military regime has made no progress in resolving the situation in the country and said it is unlikely to do so during the remainder of his year as chair. “I’m in a situation where I’m damned if I do and damned if I don’t, so just let it be,” the Cambodian strongman, Hun Sen said a day before the foreign ministers’ retreat.​

2. Prime Minister Hun Sen noted that there are “only 10 more months and 14 days left and my duty [as ASEAN chair] will be finished” and suggested that “the next chair of ASEAN take care of the issue” because of its difficulty. Hun Sen’s comments followed a 7 to 8 Jan 2022 trip to Myanmar — the first by a foreign leader since the military coup — that drew widespread criticism for conferring legitimacy on the regime.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1493552762918871040

3. Before this, direct engagement with the NUG had been off the table for ASEAN (at least publicly). The Myanmar’s military junta has so alienated ASEAN member states that it has undermined the arguments of its backers within the bloc while pushing those skeptical of it already to give the NUG any air time. It's hard to overstate what a serious self-own the Myanmar military's moves have been — leading Malaysia's Foreign Minister to call on ASEAN envoy to meet with the NUG. In view of this, the Special Envoy of ASEAN, Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister Sokhonn knows that he can’t allow Myanmar’s military junta to continue with business as usual.

4. I cannot understand why NUG supporters try to insult ASEAN and say that it is insignificant at the exact time, when ASEAN is proving it is relevant to any future peace process. It isn't accurate and it isn't helpful.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Philippines have followed NZ in rejecting Myanmar's inclusion into RCEP. If anything this may help the other ASEAN states to reject Myanmar's inclusion as well. I doubts that the PRC, Laos and Cambodia will but the rest may.

Philippines follows suit after NZ rejects Myanmar's inclusion in world's largest trade pact | Stuff.co.nz

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Interesting development. An unknown type of MANPADS was fired on 18 February by rebel forces under attack by a MAF K-8 Karakorum light attack/jet-trainer aircraft. The aircraft was demaged, but could return safely.

Myanmar resistance group deploys MANPADS against MAF

The recent launch of a man-portable air-defence system (MANPADS) in eastern Myanmar has highlighted the potential for the proliferation of such weapons, posing new...

www.janes.com

 

[T.C.P]

Is there any source where I can get information into the ongoing situation over there. I have seen a lot of PDF and KNF videos recently of their atttacks on Myanmar army supply columns and outposts. The rebels/opposition have been using a mixture of weaponry, from type 81 assault rifles to make shift rocket alunchers and even quadcopter drones to release small mortar shells. I saw a video fo a bnuch of teengaers in flip flops using shotguns and really old rifles attack police outposts as well. But unlike the Ukrainain war, I have not found an online community that was geolocating and creating comprehensive maps of this conflict.

If any one has a proper source online source, please share.

 

[tonnyc]

Is there any source where I can get information into the ongoing situation over there. I have seen a lot of PDF and KNF videos recently of their atttacks on Myanmar army supply columns and outposts. The rebels/opposition have been using a mixture of weaponry, from type 81 assault rifles to make shift rocket alunchers and even quadcopter drones to release small mortar shells. I saw a video fo a bnuch of teengaers in flip flops using shotguns and really old rifles attack police outposts as well. But unlike the Ukrainain war, I have not found an online community that was geolocating and creating comprehensive maps of this conflict.

If any one has a proper source online source, please share.

Unfortunately, there isn't any. I tried looking for one for a few months on and off but sadly the world in general just don't pay as much attention to Myanmar, so there aren't much coverage and what there is are extremely biased. No geolocating and tracking of casualties from photos. Definitely nothing like Oryx's.

If you find one in the future, let us know.

 

[T.C.P]

Unfortunately, there isn't any. I tried looking for one for a few months on and off but sadly the world in general just don't pay as much attention to Myanmar, so there aren't much coverage and what there is are extremely biased. No geolocating and tracking of casualties from photos. Definitely nothing like Oryx's.

If you find one in the future, let us know.

Same, Reddit's r/combatfootage has a lot of video clips from the opposition fighter pov in the last few months and thats about it. There is also some ARSA supporters page on facebook, but those are all in Bengali.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

15 villagers are murdered, and according to the Myanmar government its all done by anti-government millitants.
This can not be verified, but it is for sure that the human rights situation is not improved in Myanmar, but maybe became even worse because the world just forgot about Myanmar.

Vergeten Myanmar 'in vrije val naar steeds meer geweld'

Sinds de machtsovername van februari 2001 gebruikt het leger steeds meer geweld en wordt noodzakelijke humanitaire hulp systematisch geweigerd, zegt de Hoge Commissaris voor de Mensenrechten, Volker Türk.

nos.nl