The unstable situation in Myanmar.

[koxinga]

These are two twitter sources that I follow to keep updated on the situation. In short, the junta is slowly losing control in the northern states but it is unclear where this is headed, because of different actors and interests at play.

The Chinese are "allowing" this situation due to the scam situation which the junta failed to take action on, while the Brotherhood Alliance has their own objectives (greater autonomy) at play. While the NUG is taking advantage of this, they do not necessarily have the military means to take on the junta independently.

https://twitter.com/TheChindwin

https://twitter.com/nicholas6284

 

[John Fedup]

These are two twitter sources that I follow to keep updated on the situation. In short, the junta is slowly losing control in the northern states but it is unclear where this is headed, because of different actors and interests at play.

The Chinese are "allowing" this situation due to the scam situation which the junta failed to take action on, while the Brotherhood Alliance has their own objectives (greater autonomy) at play. While the NUG is taking advantage of this, they do not necessarily have the military means to take on the junta independently.

https://twitter.com/TheChindwin

https://twitter.com/nicholas6284

I was reading an article about the gangs running the scam operations which are pi$$ing off the PRC who are in turn upset with the junta for not taking action. Definitely a complicated situation.

 

[koxinga]

For western readers, this reddit subreddit is a more organized source of information. YMMV.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

 

[T.C.P]

For western readers, this reddit subreddit is a more organized source of information. YMMV.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

I have been using the subreddit and the updates on r/credibledefense to follow the situation.

And as always for those who want to view it on reddit on their browsers-

delete the 'www' from the url with old. Its much more navigable.

MyanmarCivilWar • r/Myanmarcombatfootage

This is a subreddit dedicated to footage and photos related to the civil war in Myanmar.

old.reddit.com

 

[Khabaopie]

The Myanmar Junta: Live by the Gun, Die by the Gun?

A major update; it seems that 'Operation 1027', a coordinated offensive between several rebel groups in the Shan and Chin States as well as against remaining pro-Junta footholds in Kachin State was a success. According to the report linked, among others, rebel groups have managed to capture not only key border crossings to China, but also smaller cities and Tatmadaw Bases.

It's interesting because this is a far cry from the prediction that most had at the start of the conflict (including myself) when urban-based pro-democracy movements began to coalesce into rural armed groups fighting alongside some ethnic militias. Namely, that they'd be able to control the countryside, but not urban areas.

Myanmar-China Trade Corridor Closed as Battle Rages in Northern Shan

Traders report huge losses while the regime is being deprived of up to half a million dollars in tax revenue per day.

www.irrawaddy.com

Most interestingly IMO, is the above link (might need wayback machine to access, site seems to be down intermittently) which claims that the rebels have seized all land border crossing points from Myanmar to China and have halted all trade. Rebel-aligned Private FB and WA groups also claim the same thing. These crossing points account for ~70% of the country's trade with China. It will be interesting to see the PRC's response, IIRC though they supplied weapons at the beginning, this largesse seems to have dried up, and since December last year, they have actively pushed the Junta to peace talks with the rebels.

Apologies for not linking any sources for this last tidbit, but there are also conflicting reports that the Junta has sentenced some its of its regional commanders, including senior generals, to death or lengthy prison sentences à la Stalin given their apparent failures. I just didn't want to link these sources because some come from highly closed off groups, and where the others are in public domain, they are highly conflicting and disagree on which commanders were sentenced and their sentences.

 

[koxinga]

The generals were well documented to have surrendered instead of being captured fighting, notably the six that were at Laukkai. That they there would be were charged isn't really surprising, although whether the death sentences are carried out is another.

Defeated Myanmar Junta Generals Given Death Sentences

Three brigadier generals who surrendered Laukkai this month have been given death sentences and the other three have been jailed for life.

www.irrawaddy.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

It's interesting because this is a far cry from the prediction that most had at the start of the conflict (including myself) when urban-based pro-democracy movements began to coalesce into rural armed groups fighting alongside some ethnic militias. Namely, that they'd be able to control the countryside, but not urban areas.

I'm not going to pretend I predicted this, but at the same time I'm not entirely surprised.

After the coup, the Burmese Army committed atrocity after actrocity against the common citizenry. Not some minority group that was politically isolated or disliked - the majority. They shot people in the streets for something as simple as asking why a person had been detained. And threw grenades into apartment blocks and then walked away laughing.

Now the majority of civilians will still keep their heads down in the hope they can survive all of this. But the casual evil displayed by the military has no doubt made a lot of people think that if they don't join the rebels to take down the junta, they may be next. It's not about something like the right to vote, it's the right not to be terrorised just for walking down the street.

 

[koxinga]

.. But the casual evil displayed by the military has no doubt made a lot of people think that if they don't join the rebels to take down the junta, they may be next. It's not about something like the right to vote, it's the right not to be terrorised just for walking down the street.

This "casual evil" and its persistence is what separates the junta versus other strongman, military dictactors in South East Asia, IMO.

The closest would be the Khmer Rouge. ASEAN has its fair share of military coups, corrupted strongmen who did not hesitate to turn guns against their opponents and the press (e.g your Marcos, Suhartos, assorted Thai generals). It might even be indiscriminate, resulting in civilian deaths but never in a cavalier manner.

There is something about the military institutions in Burma that bred this sort of behaviour that Lee Kuan Yew described as "stupid", "dense" and "obtuse". And LKY is someone that has seen and dealt with characters. It seems to pass from one generation of Burmese military leaders to the next generation. My hypothesis is it stems from the whole Thirty Comrade mythos and their role as the protector of the state against external invaders and non-Bamar hill tribes of the north.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Myanmar’s junta declares it will enforce military service laws for young people

State media report all men aged 18-35 and women 18-27 must serve for up to two years and up to five years in a state of emergency

www.theguardian.com

Another sign that the junta is in real danger of being defeated. Conscripting young people in a civil war, especially where the government is unpopular, is a high-risk strategy. There's no guarantee that conscripts wouldn't defect to the rebels and just bolster their ranks.

This smacks of a last-chance-saloon strategy.

 

[koxinga]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Myanmarcombatfootage/comments/1bin8kv

Video Shows Rohingya Forcibly Recruited Into Myanmar Military

Experts say youths are conscripted from displaced person camps and trained as soldiers in Rakhine state

www.voanews.com

Another dangerous development, the junta is exploiting latent ethnic tensions, by pushing the Rohingya to fight against of the factions, the Arakan Army. Ironically, the junta was persecuting the Rohingya not too long ago.

The desperation has reached another level.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Myanmar military loses border town in another big defeat

A coalition of opposition forces in Myanmar has taken control of the busiest border crossing into Thailand.

www.bbc.co.uk

The junta have lost control of Myawaddy, Burma's eastern border township. Worse, rather than stage a strategic withdrawal the hundreds of troops there have reportedly all surrendered. This has provided an added bonus for the rebels of the junta's local weapons stockpile.

Although I can easily see the civil war continuing into 2025, one does have to ask whether the junta now has any realistic path to victory. The best I can imagine for them is a protracted campaign where they continue to slowly lose ground and more personnel defect or abadon their posts. Not a rapid collapse along the lines of the former Afghani Islamic Republic, but the end result being the same.

 

[John Fedup]

Myanmar military loses border town in another big defeat

A coalition of opposition forces in Myanmar has taken control of the busiest border crossing into Thailand.

www.bbc.co.uk

The junta have lost control of Myawaddy, Burma's eastern border township. Worse, rather than stage a strategic withdrawal the hundreds of troops there have reportedly all surrendered. This has provided an added bonus for the rebels of the junta's local weapons stockpile.

Although I can easily see the civil war continuing into 2025, one does have to ask whether the junta now has any realistic path to victory. The best I can imagine for them is a protracted campaign where they continue to slowly lose ground and more personnel defect or abadon their posts. Not a rapid collapse along the lines of the former Afghani Islamic Republic, but the end result being the same.

What does Xi want to happen? China will want an endgame that is beneficial.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

What does Xi want to happen?

I'm sure he wanted the civil war over by now.

China will want an endgame that is beneficial.

China doesn't get to choose. Things have gone too far, and the junta's support is dwindling. The junta need more bodies and higher morale, not more weapons or political support. Xi can't really keep the junta in power even if he wanted to. It would be like the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, and he doesn't want to be sucked into a civil war.

I expect that Xi will just wait for the junta to lose and pretend he never supported them.

 

[koxinga]

I expect that Xi will just wait for the junta to lose and pretend he never supported them.

Well, they are hedging their bets, and the meeting (below) is sending a message to Min Aung Hlaing that there are alternatives.

A stalemate is indeed a serious possibility; the regime was overextended in the border / hinterland areas. While losing land access to China/Laos, they still retain access via sea and allows them to concentrate their limited resources to defend the inner / central Burma.

Ex-Myanmar Leader U Thein Sein’s Meetings With Foreign Dignitaries Raise Eyebrows

China and other international stakeholders may hope the ex-president, once seen as a reformer, can persuade Min Aung Hlaing to end his regime’s violence, observers say.

www.irrawaddy.com

Peng, the director-general of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC), also met with former dictator Than Shwe. While the CPC has been tightlipped about Peng’s meetings, Ban said in a statement that he met with the regime leaders and U Thein Sein to discuss the current situation. He emphasized the importance of all parties playing a role in securing a lasting solution to the crisis, including the parallel civilian National Unity Government (NUG), which commands the loyalty of the vast majority of Myanmar people.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

CNBC Indonesia reports that a Myanmar Armed Forces fighterjet dropped a bomb on top of a crowd of 150 villagers in rebel area. After this a helicopter appeared and finished the job by shooting at survivors. Because of this around 100 of the villagers, including children, died.

Edit.
I am sorry, but i realized now that this news was from 12 April LAST YEAR.

 

[koxinga]

MNDAA Claims Seizure of Myanmar Junta Command Headquarters

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army says it has finally defeated all remaining regime troops at the Northeastern Command headquarters in Lashio, northern Shan State.

www.irrawaddy.com

The situation in Lashio does not look favorable for the regime. While there are still junta units fighting, large portions have fallen under MNDAA control.

A map of the current situation, which seems to be updated regularly

Myanmar War Map - Google My Maps

Tick / untick boxes in the Legend to focus on specific aspects. This map is as accurate as I can make using the information I have access to, but I do not have any special sources and am mostly just relying on news reports for information. As such, lines of control are approximate and I cannot...

www.google.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Insurgents/rebels like the Arakan Army seems to expand their influence and territory in Myanmar, while defeating units of the junta one by one. Now a Boarder Guard Police Unit in the western part of Myanmar is defeated, which gives the Arakan Army control of the whole border area.

A bloody siege ends Myanmar army control of western border

Insurgents seized Myanmar's border with Bangladesh in one of the bloodiest battles of the civil war.

www.bbc.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

What was telling is that a Brigadier General was captured. This suggests that they had no way to escape or the central leadership have issued destructive "no retreat" orders, which will just encourage other units to surrender.

I also liked the BBC's naivety on display.

The opposition insists the military must be reformed and removed from politics. But having already made so many territorial gains at the expense of the junta, the ethnic insurgents may be tempted to strike a deal with China's blessing rather than keep fighting to oust the generals.

The BBC ignores the fact that ceasefires have previously been broken many times during this civil war - at least twice this year alone.

Myanmar Military Breaks China-Brokered Ceasefire, Resistance Groups Say

The collapse of the agreement brokered in Kunming on Friday demonstrates the limits of Chinese influence in northern Myanmar.

thediplomat.com

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar-ceaserfire-ends-06252024080110.html

Would the Arkan Army really make a permanent peace with the junta when the former hold all the cards? After all, the junta have an awful track record on keeping to their agreements. What's in it for the Arkan Army to give the junta the breathing space to recover and potentially come back at them 10 years from now? The junta also "promised" to respect the election results and then chucked them in the bin - which they'd also done decades previously.

In any event, the Arkan Army have already weakened the junta through the campaign to date. Even if they did agree on a "peace deal", other groups like the Karen National Liberation Army and the People's Defence Force almost certainly wouldn't negotiate with the junta and would only accept its surrender. I think it would take a lot more than the Arkan Army signing up to a peace deal to let the junta stay in power, not least because if it ceded territory to all the different ethnic minority groups there wouldn't be much of Burma left to rule.

 

[koxinga]

IMO, the question isn't any "peace deal". As you mentioned, such a deal is worth nothing, given the junta's track record, however...

(1) AA has achieved an key objective of obtaining control of the region, (2) junta has too many fights on their hands and might well decide to leave this for another day. This might well lead to a de facto truce.

The EAOs derived their support and primary purpose from their "ethnic" origins which is tied to a specifc region. Can be the Karens, Shans or the Rohingyas. They all have their own homelands. Would they continue their fight against the junta outside of their traditional areas and push into other regions such as the Bamar heartlands? The other members of the 3BA like MNDAA has already paused their efforts, partly due to pressure from the Chinese but also partly due to this question.

The only groups with that incentive are the NUG and the more recent PDFs as these are nationalist constructs.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

First, the Rohingyas Muslims are bit players in the civil war, not least because some are fighting for the junta. They're not going to get their own territory, nor are they going to be part of the decision-making over the country's future.

Second, it is up to each group as to what they're going to do. But realistically there will be no lasting peace until the junta are overthrown. The separate groups have tried negotiating and fighting within their own small bits of the country in an uncoordinated fashion - it didn't work. The reason the junta is showing its open to "talks" is because the various opposition groups are fighting back together.

Also it's quite possible that even if the AA somehow reaches an agreement with the junta, the military will be overthrown anyway by the nationalist groups. Then the AA's agreement would be void.

It's not like the AA and others have to march on the capital. They could support the PDF and the rest without leaving Rakhine State.

Also I'm not saying it's impossible that the junta can win, or that it's certain the different groups will all keep fighting. Just that the incentive to cooperate with the junta is far less than say 20 years ago when they were dominant across most of the country and the rebels groups had to struggle to stay alive.