Conflict in Yemen

[STURM]

On another matter it remains to be seen how the war will end. Saudi Arabia and "coalition of the willing" isn't able to achieve victory and neither are the Houthis able to evict them. Nasser reached a point when he cut his losess and left, will the "coalition of the willing" do the same?

Whilst it's fine for the U.S. to talk about human rights and an end to the war, intel and logistical support provided to the Saudis and others played a vital part and all those civillians killed as "collateral damage" was mainly from stuff with a "Made in the U.S." tag. On their part unsuprisingly the Europeans have made expressed concern but it's still largely business as usual.

Then there's Iran, expecting it to back off is as unrealistic as asking for Dick Dastardly to treat Mutley as an equal partner, as it's involvement in Yemen forms a crucial element of the longstanding cold war fought against the Sunni Gulf Arabs. The only possible soulution is for both sides to come to an agreenent and it would be safe to assume that the reported UAE/Iran talks some weeks ago included Yemen. There's also the question if it's in the interests of certain countries for the war to drag on indefinitely.

 

[OPSSG]

The Houthi are being hit, again

1. “Yemen is facing a purely Iranian project that targets faith, religion and the homeland, and aims to strike … our Arab nation using … Houthi militias that have agreed to be a cheap tool to tear the nation apart,” President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi said, stressing that government troops and local tribes would “bury” Houthi fighters in the deserts of Marib. Iran has never stopped providing weapons to the Houthis in Yemen, the USS Tempest and USS Typhoon seized no less than 1,400 Type 56-1 AKs and 226,600 rounds of ammunition from a smuggling vessel in the North Arabian Sea just two days ago.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1474191428217712640

2. Last week a Saudi citizen and a Yemeni resident were killed as a result of a Houthi projectile that hit the southern Saudi city of Jazan (reported on 24 Dec 2021), Saudi state media reported citing a coalition statement. Houthi militia have claimed responsibility for this latest ballistic missile attack on the Saudi Arabian city of Samtah that killed two civilians and injured seven others. The ⁦‪Iran‬⁩-backed Houthis' propaganda plays to the line that they are defending ⁦‪Yemen‬⁩ against foreign interference; instead, they are attacking Sunni Muslim Yemeni tribes. They want to control Marib because it has oil fields. The Saudi-led Coalition on 25 & 26 Dec 2021:

(a) said it had carried out 40 operations targeting the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Marib and Al-Jouf, killing 223 fighters and destroying 17 military vehicles in a 24 hour period;​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1474970710737133573

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(b) presented pictures of Hezbollah members training the Houthis to launch drones, as part of the evidence of the involvement of the Lebanese terrorist group and IRGC in Yemen. Coalition spokesman Brig. Gen. Turki Al-Maliki says the Houthi's attempt to control Marib threatens 3 million Yemenis. The Houthis launched their Marib offensive in Feb 2021. The new campaign, combined with increasing Houthi missile and drone attacks on neighbouring Saudi Arabia, comes as the Biden administration tries to relaunch talks on ending the conflict in Yemen;​

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(c) said the militia has turned Sanaa airport into a ballistic missiles launch site. Iran-backed Houthis had fired 430 ballistic missiles and 851 armed drones at Saudi Arabia since the war started in 2015, killing 59 Saudi civilians; and​

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(d) said it destroyed a Houthi explosive-laden boat destroyed in the Southern Red Sea shortly after launch from Houthi controlled Hodeidah, prior to an imminent attack.​

3. This Houthi explosive-laden boat is the 12 recorded incident of such nature in 2021; 8 of which have been between Q32021 to present. The Houthi intent to conduct an attack using an explosive-laden boat has increased throughout the year, likely relative to the on-the-ground situation.

4. Western Yemen anti-war activists are talking about the current round of Saudi-led coalition air strikes in Yemen because they know that Saudi Arabia has a terrible human rights record; but none of them are concerned with the Iranian backed Houthi attacking innocent shipping or their recruiting of child soldiers on a scale never seen before.

 

[STURM]

because they know that Saudi Arabia has a terrible human rights record

It think it's because military actions undertaken by Saudi Arabia and it's coalition of the willing'' has resulted in large numbers of civilian deaths and have made things worse; with regards to food and other shortages; in a country which was already experiencing massive problems prior to the invasion. On the other hand; actions undertaken by the Houthis have also resulted in the deaths and and suffering of civilians.

Iranian backed Houthi attacking innocent shipping or their recruiting of child soldiers on a scalenever seen before.

Indeed; one can't be selective or hypocritical in appropriating blame and calling for accountability.

For me the immediate concern is how the and when the conflict end; like in other wars it's ordinary civilians who pay the price. Both sides are unable to achieve the knock out blow and both sides are only able to maintain their ability to wage war because they have external backers; n one way or the other.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

2. Last week a Saudi citizen and a Yemeni resident were killed as a result of a Houthi projectile… The Saudi-led Coalition on 25 & 26 Dec 2021:

(a) said it had carried out 40 operations targeting the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Marib and Al-Jouf, killing 223 fighters and destroying 17 military vehicles in a 24 hour period;​

Reminds me of the Israeli strategy in the Lebanese security zone, which was horrible IMO. It was less a war and more a game of chess between Israel and its enemies, where obviously Israel's technological might is sidelined in favor of mind games where both sides are on a more equal footing.

Israel was suffering losses left and right in Hezbollah ambushes and raids, and scored massive successes when it took the initiative. But the war was really only in Israel's favor when it had the initiative, which naturally it would only periodically have.

And why is that? Because the mindset is not of a war. There is no rush to take and secure 40km in a day. There is only a need to maintain peace and make slow progression. This is more the direction it seems Saudi Arabia is taking. No sense of urgency - just slow management thinking time is on their side.

4. Western Yemen anti-war activists are talking about the current round of Saudi-led coalition air strikes in Yemen because they know that Saudi Arabia has a terrible human rights record; but none of them are concerned with the Iranian backed Houthi attacking innocent shipping or their recruiting of child soldiers on a scale never seen before.

The underlying issue is Saudi Arabia is perceived as the stronger side, fighting against the Houthis while Iran is only supporting from outside. This sort of support for the underdog is part of human nature, so IMO this trend can only be slowed down, but neither prevented nor reversed.

Also Iran which supports from outside is seen as an underdog because of sanctions so there's that.

 

[STURM]

Indeed perceptions play a big part. When viewed objectively and in totality hiwever, despite having balistic missiles and the support of Iran, in comparison with the resources its enemies have, the Houthis are indeed the underdog.

 

[Feanor]

The Houthis have captured a UAE transport that was allegedly carrying medicine but instead was discovered transporting weapons and military vehicles. They claim that this is a response to the capture of Iranian munition shipments to Yemen.

Захват "Рваби"

Хуситы захватили судно эмиратчиков Рваби, которое перевозило груз медикаментов и оборудования (как утверждает саудовская коалиция) с захваченного ОАЭ острова Сокотра в саудовский порт Джизан. Рваби был захвачен в Красном море недалеко от Ходейды. Само судно представляет…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Трофеи с транспорта "Рваби"

Хуситы опубликовали видео с захваченного транспорта ОАЭ Рваби https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7344835.html . Саудовская коалиция утверждала, что на транспорте перевозили медикаменты и оборудование. На практике же, речь идет о грузе различной военной техники и стрелкового оружия.…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

EDIT: More footage of the alleged cargo.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[STURM]

Saudi Arabia may run out of interceptor missiles in ‘months’

Riyadh has ‘an urgent situation’ as it runs out of missiles for its air-defence system, Financial Times reports.

www.aljazeera.com

“Responding to those attacks using those kind of interceptors means that they’re going to have a burn rate that is faster than they may have anticipated before,” the official told FT. That is something that we have to deal with and the answer to that is not only more interceptors, but the answer to that is ultimately a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Yemen.”

Still early days but it's hoped that talks which were made public between the UAE and Iran; as well as other back channel talks will enable both sides to reach an agreement which leads to peace. Only a few years ago Saudi Arabia and it's 'coalition of the willing' would have scoffed at the very idea of a compromise; flushed with hubris that convinced them that military superiority and backing from the West would lead to quick victory.

Iran for its part also badly needs peace in Yemen; in addition to Yemen it has to devote resources to Iraq, Syria and the Lebanon; as well as worry about a strike if nuke talks fail. From an Iranian perspective; even if nuke talks succeed it still has to worry about a strike from Israel.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Houthis have launched an attack on the UAE using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones, that killed three civilians and wounded six others. The UAE used their THAAD system to intercept and destroy a MRBM and this is the first known combat use of THAAD.

THAAD, in first operational use, destroys midrange ballistic missile in Houthi attack (defensenews.com)

 

[STURM]

Interesting discussion on the recent attack. One of the speakers points out that ''the Houthis are supported by Iran but 'are not a direct proxy. The Houthis can still make independent decisions'''. She also points out that any deal reached with Iran doesn't necessarily mean it includes the Houthis which would also want a say.