The unstable situation in Myanmar.

[OPSSG]

Citizens of Myanmar, you are not forgotten — Part 1

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1419970796605353984

1. The U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III speaks up for the people of Myanmar in his trip to Singapore.

2. I call on the Tatmadaw to adhere to the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus and to forge a lasting peace. The five-point document calls for an immediate end to violence and the start of a dialogue among contending parties, with a special ASEAN envoy mediating in the talks. However, the envoy has yet to be appointed.

3. On 28 July 2021, it was reported that two more pro-democracy protesters including a young woman were killed and one was wounded in a violent crackdown by regime forces on the daily Mya Taung protest column in Mandalay. Since the 1 Feb 2021 coup, at least 934 civilians have been killed by the Tatmadaw, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

4. The Myanmar Red Cross supported by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is scaling up emergency support as hundreds of thousands of people in Myanmar need immediate assistance and access to health services. Prof. Dr. Htin Zaw Soe, Secretary General of the Myanmar Red Cross Society said:

“Covid-19 has caused immense economic hardship across Myanmar in the past year. The current crisis has led to further social and economic upheaval. Many people are struggling to earn an income and have very limited access to basic services such as healthcare.”​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420397594929352704

5. Citizens of Myanmar, you are not forgotten by the Government of Singapore — Myanmar’s military regime will build ten new crematoriums in Yangon, as the death toll from the third wave of COVID-19 continues to soar to above 4,000 since the beginning of June 2021. The crematoriums will be able to cremate more than 3,000 bodies per day.

 

[OPSSG]

Citizens of Myanmar, you are not forgotten — Part 2

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422965564507557890

6. Brunei Second Foreign Minister Erywan Yusof is picked as ASEAN’s special envoy to Myanmar, in a breakthrough after months of delay in regional mediation, to help end the country's deepening crisis. And because Myanmar did not want an envoy appointed, the military dictatorship dragged out the process as much as possible.

7. Erywan will begin his work in Myanmar to “build trust and confidence with full access to all parties concerned", according to a joint statement. He will also oversee a humanitarian aid package, although no details of the assistance were announced, according to Reuters.

8. Singapore's Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan described the appointment of a special envoy as a "critical first step" for ASEAN's implementation of the five-point consensus.

9. Point 4 below is a carrot to entice the military dictatorship (who is not a rabbit) and ASEAN's points of consensus are, as follows:

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(i) ASEAN leaders called for an "immediate cessation of violence" in Myanmar, adding that all parties shall exercise "utmost restraint".​

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(ii) They also agreed to start a constructive dialogue among all parties concerned to seek a peaceful solution in the interests of the people of Myanmar.​

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(iii) "Third, a special envoy of the ASEAN Chair shall facilitate mediation of the dialogue process, with the assistance of the Secretary-General of ASEAN," the statement read.​

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(iv) "Fourth, ASEAN shall provide humanitarian assistance through the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management.”​

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(v) “Fifth, the special envoy and delegation shall visit Myanmar to meet with all parties concerned."​

 

[OPSSG]

Citizens of Myanmar, you are not forgotten — Part 3

10. On 5 Aug 2021, Secretary Blinken and the ASEAN foreign ministers discussed regional and international challenges, including combating the coronavirus pandemic, acting boldly against the climate crisis, strengthening human capital development and the "urgency" of action on Myanmar, the State Department said. Blinken said in a separate statement that he welcomed ASEAN's move to appoint Bruneian diplomat Erywan Yusof as special envoy to Myanmar, tasked with facilitating dialogue between the military rulers and their opponents.

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1435964828338647041

(a) Severe floods have swamped large areas of Myanmar in Aug 2021 and Red Cross volunteer teams have helped over 120,000 people. Meanwhile, Singapore is trying to get more Covid-19 aid pushed into Myanmar.​

​

(b) Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a call with ASEAN's Myanmar envoy Erywan on 18 Aug 2021. Besides the usual emphasis of the "ASEAN way" & "5-point consensus" in resolving the crisis, he offered 4 useless suggestions:​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431919592788709381

• Deal with all parties in Myanmar in a pragmatic manner and gradually build trust.
• Prioritize the fight against COVID-19 (with a sale and delivery of 7.6 million doses of vaccine)
• Stick to the direction of promoting peace through talks, return state power to people in an orderly manner and restart democratic process.
• Oppose interference in Myanmar's internal affairs by extraterritorial forces, & earnestly respect Myanmar's sovereignty and the choice of its people.

11. In Sep 2021, Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi pledged Tokyo's full support for Erywan Yusof, ASEAN's special envoy to Myanmar; and in another related move:

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(a) U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman had a phone call with a representative of Myanmar's government in exile on 5 Aug 2021, according to the State Department, the first such announced contact between a senior U.S. official and the National Unity Government for Myanmar (NUG). Sherman and Zin Mar Aung (who serves in the role of foreign minister of the NUG), discussed ongoing efforts to return Myanmar to a path to democracy, including continued U.S. support for the pro-democracy movement, the department said.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1435473373291692033

(b) The NUG declaring a "people's defensive war" right after ASEAN special envoy Erywan Yusof called for a 4-month ceasefire is what happens when you try to mediate a conflict by engaging with only one side. Myanmar's NUG revolutionaries are doing incredible things for their people, for justice and for human rights. They are taking unbelievable risks with little or no outside support. They are nothing like the Tatmadaw but how long can they withstand this slaughter (from the Tatmadaw, without fighting back with pipe bombs)?​

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(c) As the opening of U.N. General Assembly draws near, people in Myanmar are urging international community to recognise the NUG and reject the military junta — but China will use its soft power to prevent the NUG from taking a seat in the UN.​

12. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed that "China's friendly policy toward Myanmar is always for all the people of Myanmar".

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(a) Most of the 4 Chinese suggestions set impossible objectives—neither the Tatmadaw nor NUG are now prepared to enter peace talks—or are otherwise contradictory, like the phrase: “Oppose interference in Myanmar's internal affairs by extraterritorial forces, [but] earnestly respect… the choice of its people.”​

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(b) On 18 Aug 2021, Wang Yi also said that China and ASEAN are close partners sharing weal and woe, and China and Myanmar, an indispensable member of the ASEAN family. Myanmar has undergone changes in its domestic situation. China is highly concerned about it and has conducted in-depth communication and promoted peace talks with Myanmar and ASEAN, and played a positive and constructive role in its own way.​

(c) China has always believed that all parties in Myanmar should put the long-term interests of the country and the people first and find a proper solution through political dialogue within the constitutional and legal framework, to put an end to its issues.​

 

[Ananda]

I don't know if this really the result from ASEAN pressure by sidelining the Junta/Tatmadaw, or because Tatmadaw already confidence on their grip of power, thus shown some 'merciful' act by releasing 5000+ Political prisoners.

Seems they still choose to release the 'low key' prisoners, those who according to them only 'participating'. In sense some gesture to population but also the neighbouring community.

This remain to be seen.

 

[OPSSG]

Failure of the Five-Point Consensus

1. At this juncture, the most pressing issue for the envoy and ASEAN is how to mobilize regional and international efforts to help Myanmar cope with the raging COVID-19 infection rate. For the time being, only miniscule assistance has been given to the people of Myanmar by neighboring countries such as Thailand, China, and India. But a comprehensive and coordinated scheme is urgently needed. It is clear, ASEAN cannot help the people of Myanmar due to different interests within this supra-national organisation, especially Thailand, Cambodia and Laos — the mid-term solution might be to remove the country from the organisation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1449024115180929030

2. In mid-Oct 2021, Indonesia as ASEAN leader finally acts. After the Emergency ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting decision to invite a non-political representative from Myanmar (to attend the upcoming ASEAN and related Summits), ASEAN loses its leverage for change. While the Myanmar military authorities are urged to swiftly and fully implement the Five-Point Consensus, the lack of leverage hinders progress unless ASEAN is prepared to expel Myanmar.

3. The special envoy, Erywan visited Naypyidaw and met the junta leaders and other stakeholders to prepare action plans on key issues, which shows no sign of progress. The ASEAN Chairman (Brunei) can’t afford to let the other 9 members be dragged along the dirt by the Tatmadaw, due to slight differences in approach to the 5 point consensus — at some point stop loss makes sense.

4. Brunei joined ASEAN in Jan 1984 and has chaired several ASEAN ministerial meetings, ASEAN summits and other ASEAN-organised gatherings. Brunei’s small but professional diplomatic corps is an important asset. Recognising its larger role in 2021, the Legislative Council approved a 7% budget increase for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This will help Brunei mediate the crisis in Myanmar.

(a) Since the crisis began, Brunei has taken an unprecedentedly active role as ASEAN chair. It released a brief chairman’s statement on behalf of ASEAN — but without a formal consensus — within 24 hours of the coup.​

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(b) The statement did not directly decry the coup, in accordance with ASEAN’s longstanding policy of non-interference in the domestic affairs of its members. It did prioritise a respect for democracy, the rule of law, human rights and a solution in accordance with the ‘will and interests’ of Myanmar’s people.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1450431563385163779

(c) I don’t believe for a moment that the Tatmadaw was successfully pressured by ASEAN to release political prisoners under this amnesty. IMHO, the 5 point consensus, proposed by ASEAN, as the way forward, is dead — the military will not implement it.​

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(d) Sad to say, next year, ASEAN will be even more dysfunctional once Brunei steps down as Chairman.​

5. It hurts ASEAN credibility everyday Myanmar is a member. It’s like an infected finger that needs to be cut off to save the hand. Once expelled, the Tatmadaw can act with greater prejudice to prevent civil war and certain states can start arming the rebels as that is the wish of the NUG. They want a zero-sum game. We should give them what they want.

 

[STURM]

Malaysia Threatens to Open Talks With Myanmar Opposition Forces

Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah once again condemned the junta’s lack of cooperation on the implementation of an ASEAN consensus agreement.

thediplomat.com

Malaysia was adament that Myanmar be excluded from the ASEAN meeting and has suggested it may hold talks with the Myanmar opposition. This will not go down well with certain other ASEAN members but the fact remains that ASEAN has to act.

Personally I would like to see Myanmar expelled fron ASEAN but would this change anyrhing? Would Myanmar's military rulers even be bothered and would it make engagement with Myanmar harder? There is also the question of whether China is able and willing to exert pressure on Myanmar's military rulers?

ASEAN must act, it's not as if it hasn't sucessfully cooperated and acted decisively in the past.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

|"Danny Fenster: Myanmar court gives US journalist 11 years jail

Fenster was found guilty of breaching immigration law, unlawful association and encouraging dissent against the military.

He was earlier this week slapped with two additional charges of sedition and terrorism, which carry a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.

His trial on the new charges will begin on 16 November"|

With a government which totally doesn't care about human rights, it is to be expected that this is not the last foreigner getting a jail sentence in a fake-process. He is just lucky that he is not a Myanmarese.

Danny Fenster: Myanmar court gives US journalist 11 years jail

A Myanmar military court sentences US journalist Danny Fenster to 11 years in jail.

www.bbc.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Myanmarese soldiers intentionally drive into a group of protesters. At least 5 protesters lost their lives.

'Militairen Myanmar rijden in op burgerprotest, zeker vijf doden'

Getuigen spreken van tientallen gewonden. Op video's is te zien dat er meerdere lichamen op het asfalt liggen.

nos.nl

The BBC reports about several injuries.

Myanmar: Protesters scatter as military truck speeds towards them

Several people are injured as a military truck rams a crowd of protesters in Yangon.

www.bbc.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

There are still no signs of the ending of human rights violations and the return to a more democratic and peaceful condition.

Myanmar: Soldiers accused of shooting, burning 13 villagers

Myanmar villagers say soldiers carried out the killings in response to an attack on a military convoy.

www.bbc.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

This is why I said months ago it was unlikely there could be any negotiated settlement with the Burmese military. Even before the armed resistance, soldiers were throwing grenades into apartment blocks and laughing about it, killing people for just stopping to ask what was going on, etc.

You can't reason with these people, they lack common humanity. It's kill or be killed.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The randomly killing of civilians just continue.

Myanmar: Save the Children says army attack killed staff

The charity says two of its workers, both new fathers, are among the 35 bodies found on 24 December.

www.bbc.com

"The military forced people from their cars, arrested some, killed many and burnt the bodies," it said, adding that the two men were both new fathers."

Save the Children confirms two staff members among Myanmar massacre dead

YANGON: Save the Children confirmed on Tuesday (Dec 28) that two of its staff members were killed in a Christmas Eve massacre blamed on junta troops that left the charred remains of more than 30 peopl

www.channelnewsasia.com

As long the Tatmadaw exists, acts like this will stay a part of the lives of the Myanmar people.

 

[swerve]

This is why I said months ago it was unlikely there could be any negotiated settlement with the Burmese military. Even before the armed resistance, soldiers were throwing grenades into apartment blocks and laughing about it, killing people for just stopping to ask what was going on, etc.

You can't reason with these people, they lack common humanity. It's kill or be killed.

If what I've read is correct the Tatmadaw has turned into a caste which keeps itself apart from most of the population. Officers, in particular, marry into other military families. They live in military cantonments separated from civilians. Their children go to military schools, run by the armed forces for the children of military families. They're more like an occupying or colonial army than a national army.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

They're more like an occupying or colonial army than a national army.

That's exactly how I see it.

If somehow the Burmese opposition win through force of arms - i.e. the junta refuse to back down and agree to withdraw from politics - I think there would be a high chance of mass executions of Burmese soldiers and even their families, unless those persons had switched sides early on. It would be horrible, but I think in the eyes of most Burmese the military have crossed a line they can't easily walk back from.

 

[Ananda]

Tatmadaw behave like warior caste of old Burmese kingdom. As long as they're not fracture from within, chances of civilian or minority ethnics militia to win by force is close to naught.

This kind of news and analyst only come from Western wishful thinking. From info that coming from regional business people (that still doing business with Myanmar), the Tatmadaw grip is very solid. Their ranks still solid, thus the so call rural militia is nothing more then nuisance that already happened for sometime.

Tatmadaw still have solid grip on the borders between Myanmar with Bangladesh, India and Thailand, and their Navy have full control of all the ports. Making it almost impossible for any foreign actors that try to give arm supply to opposition forces.

The civilian Political circles still try to get Tatmadaw bent over and give the power to civilian without power compromise. This's fitting to their backers in the west. Only two thing that can force Tatmadaw down. One if Tatmadaw it self fracture from within, and second if China as its main backer force them to give power back to Civilians.

Both so far shown will not happen. So we will see continue systematic eliminations by Tatmadaw on civilian ranks whether through protesters and also through those who dares fight them with arms.

 

[ngatimozart]

Tatmadaw behave like warior caste of old Burmese kingdom. As long as they're not fracture from within, chances of civilian or minority ethnics militia to win by force is close to naught.

This kind of news and analyst only come from Western wishful thinking. From info that coming from regional business people (that still doing business with Myanmar), the Tatmadaw grip is very solid. Their ranks still solid, thus the so call rural militia is nothing more then nuisance that already happened for sometime.

Tatmadaw still have solid grip on the borders between Myanmar with Bangladesh, India and Thailand, and their Navy have full control of all the ports. Making it almost impossible for any foreign actors that try to give arm supply to opposition forces.

The civilian Political circles still try to get Tatmadaw bent over and give the power to civilian without power compromise. This's fitting to their backers in the west. Only two thing that can force Tatmadaw down. One if Tatmadaw it self fracture from within, and second if China as its main backer force them to give power back to Civilians.

Both so far shown will not happen. So we will see continue systematic eliminations by Tatmadaw on civilian ranks whether through protesters and also through those who dares fight them with arms.

It's in the CCP's interest for the Tatmadaw to retain an iron grip upon Myanmar and to steadily exterminate any opposition to its (Tatmadaw) rule. The Tatmadaw will have to pay for the CCP / PRC military and other support somehow and their recent SSK acquisition won't be cheap. I wouldn't be surprised to see an eventual PLAN surface and subsurface support facility in one of the Myanmar ports or naval bases. Possibly PLANAF H-6 bomber and Y-8Q MPA detachments as well.

 

[Ananda]

Tatmadaw have what you can say indoctrination thinking that they're the class that will bring back the Old Burmese glories. Their thinking can be seen toward the new capital Naypyidaw. It's build on layout and architectural thinking of old Burmese kingdom city.



This's what they're in their thinking. The old Burmese warriors caste, that guarding the kingdom from Western influence (that's mean the British). Now the Civilian politicians challenge them with Western help/backers. Not surprising they go out in force toward election results that threatening them of old ways and more importantly their existence as warriors caste.

You can't expect they will change against Political civilian lead by a Burmese Woman with British husband. Don't get me wrong, I'm not supporting Tatmadaw, not by any inch. However my point is the Civilians has to make compromise on power sharing first with Tatmadaw. Something that will not threatening their base of power as warriors.

The old Burmese warriors are the ones that fight the Thais, and even occasional Chinese Imperial army incursion. They are also the ones that fighting British and lost in the end. Now the Civilians politicians expect them to follow the rules of democracy, that many of them (Tatmadaw leadership) thinking as part of foreign/British effort to regain their influence back ?

 

[ngatimozart]

They aren't the only ones who think like that. Unfortunately they are the ones with the guns and keys to the Treasury. There are others around the world wo think the same way, but fortunately are in the minority. Even some of my own people think like that; luckily they are few and far between.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

However my point is the Civilians has to make compromise on power sharing first with Tatmadaw. Something that will not threatening their base of power as warriors.

The civilians already compromised by allowing the military to dictate the constitution. A constitution that guaranteed them a massive chunk of seats in the legislative for no reason other than the military was special. It also ensured the military had absolute control over their own affairs.

Despite all of this, the civilians won two straight elections by being not just the favourites but by being the overwhelming favourites - getting around 75% of the vote in a system rigged againt them. The junta was unhappy they have virtually no popular support outside the military and their families, not because of cheating or unfairness.

There are no further compromises that can be made by the civilians. Further weighting the system in the military's favour will mean they cannot lose an election. That is not a compromise, it would be surrending to eternal military rule dressed up as a democracy to give them a semblance of legitimacy.

 

[swerve]

However my point is the Civilians has to make compromise on power sharing first with Tatmadaw. Something that will not threatening their base of power as warriors.

The civilians did exactly that, going so far that the previously revered civilian politician who led that compromise appears to have lost her credibility, & yet the Tatmadaw still overthrew her.

They've rejected a compromise which was hugely tilted in their favour. They seem to have decided that only total control will satisfy them.

 

[koxinga]

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