General Aviation Thread

[ngatimozart]

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Its amazing what you see driving down the streets in Singapore at night. Two You Tube videos on this link the first one is on the Air New Zealand Aircraft in storage perhaps waiting for RNZAF Markings and the 2nd video is two A380 being towed down the street at night to the scrap yard.

The Air NZ B777 won't be wearing RNZAF markings because they won't be able to operate in and out of Phoenix Field at McMurdo. Apparently the Field isn't rated for them and the FAA wouldn't approve their operation there.

 

[Ananda]

This is continuation of my post #757.

The video talk more on reason why Embrear relocate the Turboprop engine from wing position toward rear end position. Not only due to reduce noice and vibration, but also to prepare for eventual hydrogen fuel engine that's many projected will come.

Put it in rear as the shape of hydrogen tank will better fit in rear fuselage. This make me speculate also, if that the case, then probably next gen Airliners including the wide body ones, can also back to rear engine positioning.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The latest report of the US Department of Justice.

Former Boeing 737 MAX Chief Technical Pilot Indicted for Fraud

www.justice.gov

This makes it even harder for Boeing to make airlines and passengers trust the 737 MAX.

 

[John Fedup]

The latest report of the US Department of Justice.

Former Boeing 737 MAX Chief Technical Pilot Indicted for Fraud

www.justice.gov

This makes it even harder for Boeing to make airlines and passengers trust the 737 MAX.

Absolutely won’t do much for trust but I am stuck with flying on MAXs as both major airlines here made major investments in this aircraft. I would imagine the order book is long for A321XLR.

 

[Ananda]

I am stuck with flying on MAXs as both major airlines here made major investments in this aircraft. I would imagine the order book is long for A321XLR.

More likely Boeing provide good financing deals. Heard from my customer in Industry, that Boeing working hard to regain their market share in Asia Pacific from Airbus and potential Chinese competition, especially after MAX debacle and COVID.

Thus they're doing a lot off financing campaign and practically doing packages deals (outside of direct pricing in avoiding pricing war with Airbus or WTO complaint). I suspect they're doing similar thing in their other major market like North America and Europe.

 

[Redlands18]

Qantas has the 737 Max shortlisted up against Airbus with a mixed A320neo/A220 fleet and Embraer with E-Jets to replace its 737-800 and 717 Fleets for up to 100 aircraft.

 

[Ananda]

Boeing put campaign even for MAX 10 by showing that their range will still be enough for most regional-Inter regional point to point routes. Off course everyone knows MAX 10 can't match A321 family range especially LR and XLR version.

However they're arguing that for regional-inter regional market that need +200 pac capacity, MAX 10 can cover most of it, thus why they're playing with packages deals. Combination with maintenance, cabin set up as part of overall deals. Off course Airbus can counter that, but what Boeing try to do is to retain their traditional long time customers (especially in narrow body) to move to Airbus A220/A320 combo.

That Airbus combo actually one of Airbus turf card. A220 is really an efficient Airliners with close A320 Neo and MAX capabilities, with more efficient seat per cost make up. Fighting this Combo according to sources in Industry that I heard, is going to be real challenge for Boeing.

They should get E series to counter that Combo. This in my opinion another Boeing debacle when they drop the deals at the time Embrear actually already follow most of their demand.

 

[ngatimozart]

Boeing are going from bad to worse with reports of the USAF still finding FOD in newly delivered KC-46 and apparently one had an inflight fuel problem because of FOD in the fuel delivery system. The Chief Technical Pilot being charged with fraud certainly doesn't help matters much either.

A Plastic Cap In A KC-46's Fuel Valve Generates More Turbulence For The Troubled Tanker

The revelation is the latest in a line of trash-related problems for Boeing aircraft — and not even the first debris issue for the KC-46.

www.thedrive.com

 

[swerve]

...That Airbus combo actually one of Airbus turf card. A220 is really an efficient Airliners with close A320 Neo and MAX capabilities, with more efficient seat per cost make up. Fighting this Combo according to sources in Industry that I heard, is going to be real challenge for Boeing.

They should get E series to counter that Combo. This in my opinion another Boeing debacle when they drop the deals at the time Embrear actually already follow most of their demand.

First, Boeing attacked Bombardier & threatened its survival, driving it into the arms of Airbus. Boeing tried to counter that by a deal with Embraer, then dropped it because Embraer had the temerity to negotiate.

I think the weak point in the A320 family was at the bottom: A220 fixed that.

 

[Ananda]

Talking with several Investment Bankers, it can provide many different opinion whether Boeing was right to dump embrear or it's another Boeing debacle that going to cost them in long run. Personally I tend to agree on the latter.

Investing USD 4+ bio during Covid and with MAX problem, for short term seems was right for Boeing. They already in lot of problem, why adding another Commercial Airliner Company in Portfolio (which at that time the valuation only slightly less than USD 1 bio).

However with Covid now begining to slowing down, the valuation of Embrear is increasing again, even their shares lately perform better than Boeing it self. So it's shown what Embrear has, actually the right combo that Boeing looking for.

Big Battle of the Smaller Jets: Airbus A220-300 vs Embraer E195-E2 - Travel Radar

The Regional Aviation Industry forms an intriguing branch of the aviation world: Small distances, small aircraft and a huge market! In fact, more than

travelradar.aero

This is just one of articles that assesed performance of A220 vs E2 series. Just like A320 neo vs Max, basically it's direct competition. Thus a perfect combo for Boeing with MAX against A320/A220 combo.

For me, just shown what's the problem with Boeing management for some time. Even after changing CEO, they still looking for short term solution, and not for longer term portfolio development. Acquiring 80% Embrear Commercial business actualy in my personal view can provide better opportunity compare to Airbus acquaring 51% of C series from Bombardier. This considering Embrear better market positioning and portfolio then Bombardier.

Perhaps just like I heard from some of Investment Bankers (that specialise in Aviation Industry) said. This Boeing droping Embrear, can be interesting case study for years to come in many Business School.

 

[John Fedup]

Having the Quebec government with a 49 % C-Series share does have some advantages for Airbus…a money supply if things get tough. Jobs and Québécois pride, junior will help out.

 

[Ananda]

Italian say goodbye to their 'beloved' Flag Carrier Alitalia. The Italian government decided to create a new one, rather then try continue endless cycles of bailing out Alitalia.

This is the problem with continue bailing out Flag Carriers that mostly are SOE's. Asian government also share many problem with their Flag Carriers:

Time to bid farewell to Thai Airways?

On March 2, Thai Airways will submit its business rehabilitation plan to the Central Bankruptcy Court. After that, in around May, the court will assemble Thai Airways' creditors to vote on the plan. If a majority of creditors vote yes, the court will appoint rehabilitation plan administrators...

www.bangkokpost.com

Masalah Bersengkarut yang Membuat Garuda Indonesia Merugi... Halaman all - Kompas.com

Garuda Indonesia menyimpan krisis dan berbagai masalah di dalamnya. Apa saja? Apa solusinya? Halaman all

nasional.kompas.com

Above just examples that some Asian Government facing with their failings Flight Carriers, from Thai Airways, Garuda Indonesia and we can see others also facing similar financial trouble.

Granted COVID multiple the problem significantly. However many flag carriers that have problem, actually already facing it before the COVID. That's always a problem on SOE's in many countries. The mentality that in the end the government (ie the tax payers), in the end will bail them out.

Most of Governments continue bailing them out cause the Political pressure on saving them. Many due the historical prestige, also pressure to save the SOE's employee, but many also due to Political interest that SOE's like Flag Carriers bring on the Political circles (especially with rulings Parties).

That's always the problem with SOE's, tendencies to be used by whoever parties that rules at that moment. In the paper it can be avoided by making them more professional handle. However also has to be shield from Political interest from changing administrations cycles. The later ones that are difficult, but also doable depends when Political circles can be 'force' to create regulations that shields SOE's from Political interest.

However the most difficult ones actually to change mentality from SOE Executive and Employee, that they have to work and responsible as working commercial entity's and not government institutions. This means changing the mentality that already build for decades. For that sometimes it's better perhaps just to build new ones

Anyway, the Italian examples should be one that can be used as bench mark to other governments that facing problematic Flag Carriers. If it can't be help, then those flag carriers has to be let to failed as a regular commercial entities course. Better to create new ones that try to revive problematic ones.

 

[Ananda]

Simple Flying - Aviation News & Insight

The leading independent voice for aviation news and insight.

simpleflying.com

Russian MC-21 that aim as Max and Neo competitors, seems going to be offer to the market with Russian engine. This results to UD and Western embargo to Russia.

In paper (based on previous data publicly available), Russian MC-21 should be better performance then Chinese C919 due to more composite Airframes, make it in paper lighter. However also in paper the chances for C919 should be better to the larger Chinese market.

Still those two abilities to really challenge Boeing and Airbus in Global market that still the big question.

 

[ngatimozart]

Cheap aircraft going in Kenya. Some work may be required. Nothing that can't be buffed out and fixed with gaffa tape.

A Boeing 707 For $2,500? Kenya To Auction 73 Abandoned Planes

simpleflying.com

 

[At lakes]

Cheap aircraft going in Kenya. Some work may be required. Nothing that can't be buffed out and fixed with gaffa tape.

A Boeing 707 For $2,500? Kenya To Auction 73 Abandoned Planes

simpleflying.com

I notice one of the aircraft listed as derelict in Mombasa 2006 is still carrying New Zealand Rego, ZK BBJ still visible under the port wing. Ex NAC New Zealand City of Gisborne and then on to Fieldair as a Aerial Top Dresser.

Aircraft ZK-BBJ (1945 Douglas DC-3 C/N 34222) Photo by John Pratt (Photo ID: AC159433)

 

[ngatimozart]

I notice one of the aircraft listed as derelict in Mombasa 2006 is still carrying New Zealand Rego, ZK BBJ still visible under the port wing. Ex NAC New Zealand City of Gisborne and then on to Fieldair as a Aerial Top Dresser.

Aircraft ZK-BBJ (1945 Douglas DC-3 C/N 34222) Photo by John Pratt (Photo ID: AC159433)

It's ex RNZAF as well - NZ3552. So it does have quite a bit of NZ aviation history. One of the aviation focused Facebook groups has been talking about it. I get the impression that there's not much chance of repatriating it in the time available.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

US lessor Air Lease has become the launch customer for the Airbus A350 freighter, agreeing to take seven of the type as part of a large order for 111 Airbus jets.

The order is announced at the November 2021 Dubai Air Show.

Air Lease becomes A350F launch customer as part of broader large Airbus order

US lessor Air Lease has become the launch customer for the Airbus A350 freighter, agreeing to take seven of the type as part of a large order for 111 Airbus jets. Air Lease is adding more widebodies, taking four already-placed A330neos, while it will substantially lift its single-aisle...

www.flightglobal.com

According to A350F | Freighters | Aircraft | Airbus Aircraft the A350F is much more cost effective and has a larger range than the 777-200F.

The first deliveries for the A350F are planned for 2026, to start the replacement of the MD-11F and 747F.

 

[Ananda]

Two videos on MC-21 in Dubai airshow. I do must admit compared to Chinese C919, this Airliners seems better in paper. It has more composite materials and better range.

However unless Russia can find market outside their own, C919 will reach break even faster simply due to the size of China own market. Rumours circulate that Russia aim to offer this to Iranian market. That's why they wait for their own PD-14 engine, so they can market it easier to Iran or other market that potentially facing difficulty on Western supply.

So Russia already have Regional Jet with Sukhoi Superjet and Narrow Body with this. China already have ARJ regional jets and C919. Both aim to break the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus. However somehow at least on present market conditions, I only see them to take the market from each other rather from the Big Two.

 

[Terran]

Boeing hasn’t competed in the small regional aircraft line since the 737 classic. So well the SSJ & ARJ may face off against the A220 they are not going against Boeing. That was part of the reason for the Embraer merger. The Embraer line would have become Boeings small regional line.
MC21’s specs are good but Composite is more expensive. MC21 was supposed to be really cheap and launched in 2012 but now it’s 91 million {1}which though cheaper than Airbus {2} or Boeing {3} (before often used incentive markdowns) is undercut by Comac at an estimate of 50 million {4} pretty significantly. Of course I expect Chinese State owned airlines to be tracked on to Comac however both the MC and 919 use western subs which is delaying the first delivery of the 919 due to American made parts not getting delivered. {5}
The real shot at the AB Dualopoly is supposed to be the CR 929 which was at last I checked a joint SinoRusso venture sitting about in the A350/B787 class.

 

[Ananda]

undercut by Comac at an estimate of 50 million {4} pretty significantly.

I have doubt when seeing Chinese products price list. Yes they're ussualy will be lower, however experiences from my customers on taking them, the cost ussualy goes up with options.

If the customers decided on using Western avionics and engines, it will increase significantly.

Just add:
Breaking duopoly not only they (China and Russia) has to provide simmilar capabilities Airliners with more economics pricing. However also must provide Comparable Financing network and Global support systems toward what Airbus and Boeing have.

The last one actually when talking to some Airlines Exec, is the hardest ones. So for at least in a decade or two, I do see they have to begin with breaking export market in Second Tiers airlines in Developing Nations.