If I were to summarize where defence stands in terms of capability and where the core issues lay:
- The army lacks the capability to operate within a modern medium - high intensity conflict (the actual type of conflict may vary) zone due to a lack of local air defence, a limited anti-armour capability and a lack of an active self defence system on the LAV (i.e. Trophy) to provide self defence from guided weapons. These are just some examples. I would also note the vulnerability of fixed artillery such as NZ currently operates based on observations of the Ukrainian conflict, that suggest mobile artillery is the future.
- The navy lacks sufficient number of ships provide sufficient capability to respond to short notice events (i.e. East Timor) without compromising other operations. Its interesting that the Irish government considers 8 ships to be the absolute minimum for the enforcement of their EEZ, while entire RNZN consists of 10 ships (once and if the SOPV comes online) for a significantly larger area and greater responsibilities. While the strategic environment for Ireland is different it does highlight how sea blind New Zealand really is to its geographic position and the vulnerability of its trade routes.
- The airforce lacks airframes (helicopters and others to name a few) and what airframes it does has are not used to the fullest of their capability. This impacted on the ability to deploy to Afghanistan.
- The current size of the NZDF and limited air transport means that the regular force would not be able to respond effectively in a sustained way to a major disaster arising say from the Southern Fault Line or Wellington Fault knocking out a 7.8 quake.
- We won't even get into the debate about an air combat capability, because that's been discussed to death - but the disbandment of the Air Combat Force really highlights the short sighted strategic thinking in Wellington political and Treasury circles.
- Elements in Wellington fail to understand the fact there is no surplus equipment that we can acquire to shore up our defences like there use to be in the 1960's, and what equipment is available takes time to regenerate and requires a significant investment in training, that still doesn't compensate for institutional knowledge and experience.
Similar to part of a tangent I wrote out and then deleted as I didn't want to go in a rant... but... here I am.
Since I left the RNZN I have watched our defence force all over get smaller and smaller, capable in some ways less capable in others ways
We now have a air taxi service, with limited offensive capability. While anti submarine is basic anti-ship is non-existent. We don't have enough air-frames and as they get older this will become more and more apparent as the maintenance to keep them air worthy is harder and having less air frames just makes it that harder ... From x6 P-3K2 Orion's to x4 P-8A Poseidon. and as pointed out no offensie weapons to do their job of anti shipping...
We don't have enough helo air frames, we barely have enough C-130 air frames and can't air transport the NZLAV, or the NH-90 and a few other items.
The T-6 may be able to light CAS duties, limited recon... but they are not trained in any of this, and don't have the systems and or armament or equipment to do so.
Don't get me started on not having a strike wing... leaving no air cover for our troops and or naval assets... don't get me started I may go on a real tangent rant... :-/ lol
We have a slightly heavier armed coast guard, that can operate that can operate with international partners, but realistically only light duties. They have no long range stand off anti ship capabilities, they do have the use of medium range ASM with the Penguin Missile and helo but to do anything serious with that they are well with in the range of anti air defences of the attacking vessel and becomes vulnerable. With the current upgrades they have the sensors but nothing to deal with the threat, but at least they will know what hit them.
The SeaSprite is an ASW helo but we they don't have dipping sonar to hunt the submarines on their own in the area. The SH-2G(i) is an old air frame and again not enough of them as part are getting hard to source to keep them flying. (They are to be replaced in 2028/29ish)
We don't have enough hulls in the water in the frigate squadron and they are under armed, the patrol squadron vessels are also under armed.
I am sick to death of the "Fitted for but not with" and is a very dangerous mind set, as missions of vessels can change with in seconds and if systems are not installed to deal with the evolving scenario then it can be dangerous for the ship as they can not deal with the threat, nor are the trained on the equipment ...
The army did have very limited air defence cover but they are in storage and probably past used by date also personal are not trained how to use them any more. The army only has a couple of under manned and under resourced battalions which means we can only deploy one at a time in rotation. Very limited anti armour, very limited just about non existent anti-air, no offensive power, (Going on the offense is usually the best defence) The static formation of the artillery needs to be more mobile than it currently is... They are only just replacing the useless Armoured Pinzgauer now with what the army originally wanted the Bushmaster...
NZ has a habit of keeping thing way past there used by date, that should have been replace years before... Take for example the C-130H the work horse of our transport fleet they should have been replaced 10-15 years ago... Then when we need them to go to the recent Afgainistain evacuation we could only just muster one, and don't get me started on
hypocrisy of the the Green MP Golriz Ghahraman wanting to cut back on the budget and including the purchase of the C-130J-30 Super Hercules... and then saying we should have done more... well we couldn't due to the age of equipment... Another bad habit is always trying to take short cuts and doing things on the cheap...
This is not the only time NZ has been caught like this. In recent times, Fiji Coup in 1987... David Lange wanted us to do more but we couldn't as we didn't have equipment and or enough of said the herc's were a a mess in maintenance, the Navy had no assets to help in the situation. (
Edit... there is a little more to than this... but the point is we didn't have the assets operational to do the what was asked) With other actions in the our sphere of influance ie East Timor, this lead to the total balls up of HMNZS Charles Upham which in turn lead Project Protector with HMNZS Canterbury which they still stuffed it up try to get to much from the wrong type of hull... They quickly worked out 2 frigates can't replace 4 frigates... so the OPV's tried to take some of the pressure off... but the 2 frigates are still over worked as an OPV can not do the job a frigate.
The Navy never really wanted 4 IPV's and were happy with 2... but no, instead of listening to the Naval advisors they got 4 and 10 years later decommissioning 2... and may get rid of the other 2 in years to come... sounds so similar to the old Lake class IPC's...
They stuffed up on the purge which gutted the NZDF of key personal, moral dropped to
an all time low, which does not help... all to save a penny. Yet they waste money elsewhere on civil services that nobody needs or wants.
Defence is the one place governments HAVE to spend money, and people hate it when I say this
(and I not suggesting that they do this, but) government can cut back on health and education as an example etc... as people can still go to the private health and education sector. Government has to spend money of defence as we are not allowed to do this privately... I am not allowed to form a private army and equip it to do the job the NZ army can't do... it is like an unwritten agreement between government and citizens. We give you money to spend on society but you spend money on a good defence force to protect that society and way of living
ie; Like insurance, hopefully we don't have use them or make a claim... but it's nice to know you have that insurance. Governments tend to forget this and it has been forgotten for so long now. Technically defence is the only thing the Government HAS to spend money on. However to have a good society yes we need health care and education etc... but you get my point. (hopefully)