John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Third party engines and transmissions, newer and better than original! As for new vehicles, no doubt only the elites get them, just like all the other third world countries.
Afghanistan War
- Thread starter gree0232
- Start date
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Women being beaten up and tortured during protests.
nos.nl
www.bbc.com
But soon this will be over, because Taliban, the organisation which has changed over the years and matured into a peaceful, tolerant and civilized organization, has forbidden all kinds of protests and demonstrations.
nos.nl
Taliban slaan demonstrerende vrouwen met zwepen in Kabul
In Kabul gingen vrouwen vandaag opnieuw de straat op. Op beelden is te horen dat de Taliban waarschuwingsschoten lossen.
nos.nl
Afghanistan: Women beaten for demanding their rights
Women in Afghanistan demanding their rights say they have been beaten by the Taliban.
www.bbc.com
But soon this will be over, because Taliban, the organisation which has changed over the years and matured into a peaceful, tolerant and civilized organization, has forbidden all kinds of protests and demonstrations.
Taliban staan voorlopig geen protesten meer toe
De reden daarvoor is volgens het Afghaanse ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken dat betogers de openbare orde hebben verstoord en mensen hebben aangevallen.
nos.nl
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I'm in watch a see mode.Unfortunately it appears Women don't need to play sportThe International Cricket Council(ICC) will be meeting in the next few weeks to discuss Afghanistan's status and I have little doubt the result will be suspension. This is unacceptable and put Afghanistan IMO in the same category as South Africa during the Apartheid era.
I'd leave such decisions for a while till the Taliban get their house in order { Or Not }.
Domestically a lot may happen in the next 12 months.
Regards S
Ananda
The Bunker Group
China seems begin to promise money to Taliban, eventough 200 Mio yuan will not be same with billions that West usually channel to previous regime. Certainly will not cover billions of Afghan Foreign reserve which mostly hold in New York. Well after all it's US credit facilities, thus it's US preogrative to hold it, it's naive for Taliban to expect US will give the fund to them.
Still this is where the game seems begin to end. Chinese Yuan will replace USD for basically Afghanistan Forex reserve in the future. However it's also change the dynamic of the neighborhood. For one thing I already see how Indian media or online sources talking on Afghanistan. Clearly India see they are loosing ground on Afghanistan. Everything they do to counter Pakistan in Afghanistan during previous regime is begin to evaporated. While Pakistan with their China backing seems on other end.
That's why for me personally, I don't want to take seriously any news, even online photos that come from sources that reside either in India or Pakistan. Certainly too many biases and propaganda issue on the back of it. Take example on recent woman demonstration, the West media (many of them taking sources from Afghan reside in India) talking on hundreds woman taking part in several cities. This's then counters by Afghan sources in Pakistan that discredited that shown photos on only tens of woman demonstrate with more journalists outnumbered them.
Point I'm making is the information that coming from Afghanistan it self become distorted. Making the outsiders like us in this forum getting harder to find which're really reliable information that can be hold.
Just my two cents for to be careful on which information that can be hold. Take real careful consideration from where the original information coming from.
@Ananda The interesting thing to watch will be any Iranian reactions WRT to China and Pakistan. Not only is Pakistan puppets of China, but they are also puppets of Saudi Arabia and a dog cannot have two masters. So which master will Islamabad choose to obey?
The two Islamic nations that have offered help first were Qatar and Turkey. Neither are friends of Saudi Arabia and it's only recently that the UAE has been flying in what appears to be aid. Qatar has a non acrimonious relationship with Iran and China has a cordial relationship with Iran and is now buying Iranian oil paying for it in anything other than US$ or by using the SWIFT banking system. It's in Iran's interest to have a stable Afghanistan and relatively peaceful Afghanistan as a neighbour. I would argue that the less influence that Pakistan has, the happier Iran will be.
Also this US publication is claiming that the PLA is considering the use of Bagram Airbase as a future, probably permanent, PLA base. Bagram was a Soviet base and then expanded by the Americans, so TBH the PLA would be pretty silly not to consider it.
The two Islamic nations that have offered help first were Qatar and Turkey. Neither are friends of Saudi Arabia and it's only recently that the UAE has been flying in what appears to be aid. Qatar has a non acrimonious relationship with Iran and China has a cordial relationship with Iran and is now buying Iranian oil paying for it in anything other than US$ or by using the SWIFT banking system. It's in Iran's interest to have a stable Afghanistan and relatively peaceful Afghanistan as a neighbour. I would argue that the less influence that Pakistan has, the happier Iran will be.
Also this US publication is claiming that the PLA is considering the use of Bagram Airbase as a future, probably permanent, PLA base. Bagram was a Soviet base and then expanded by the Americans, so TBH the PLA would be pretty silly not to consider it.
It’s good to see CNN being subject to a meme, where a news image is distorted and taken out of context, for a change.
Part 1 of 3: What is real news?
1. Marcus Yam of the Los Angles Times was accosted by Taliban fighters at Karte 4 while covering the women’s protest. They said Zabihullah Mujahid, the Talib spox, said that covering these protests were illegal. One of them even said it was forbidden in Islam to take picture of women. One told Yam he would kick him down if he didn’t comply. Yam replied to them “look guys, I’m unarmed and harmless. You have all the guns, I just have a camera.” In the end, he ended up getting an armed escort to walk back to his vehicle.
2. The real news is that the Norwegians and their partners have flown out of Kabul, with their embassy closed until further notice. The Taliban are just not very bright — taking over the Norwegian Embassy in Kabul and destroying Norwegian property.
3. Norwegian humanitarian organizations continue their work for the people of Afghanistan. Compared to China, Norway is significant humanitarian aid donor to Afghanistan for over 20 years — their NGOs are making important efforts in a difficult situation.
4. A Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Lockheed C-130E (serial number 4171) arrived in Kabul with relief goods for Afghanistan from Pakistan. Relief goods transported by the aircraft included flour, ghee and medicines.
5. The real news is that there is a shortage of Wheat in Afghanistan is because of 2020’s crop failure. The issue in 2021 even though there will be no locust issues reports seem to suggest the winter wheat growing season has not yet started.
Part 1 of 3: What is real news?
1. Marcus Yam of the Los Angles Times was accosted by Taliban fighters at Karte 4 while covering the women’s protest. They said Zabihullah Mujahid, the Talib spox, said that covering these protests were illegal. One of them even said it was forbidden in Islam to take picture of women. One told Yam he would kick him down if he didn’t comply. Yam replied to them “look guys, I’m unarmed and harmless. You have all the guns, I just have a camera.” In the end, he ended up getting an armed escort to walk back to his vehicle.
2. The real news is that the Norwegians and their partners have flown out of Kabul, with their embassy closed until further notice. The Taliban are just not very bright — taking over the Norwegian Embassy in Kabul and destroying Norwegian property.
3. Norwegian humanitarian organizations continue their work for the people of Afghanistan. Compared to China, Norway is significant humanitarian aid donor to Afghanistan for over 20 years — their NGOs are making important efforts in a difficult situation.
4. A Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Lockheed C-130E (serial number 4171) arrived in Kabul with relief goods for Afghanistan from Pakistan. Relief goods transported by the aircraft included flour, ghee and medicines.
5. The real news is that there is a shortage of Wheat in Afghanistan is because of 2020’s crop failure. The issue in 2021 even though there will be no locust issues reports seem to suggest the winter wheat growing season has not yet started.
(a) Even if it has started, it doesn't have government support. This will likely create problems next year with availability. For remote areas stocking has to happen before the second week of Oct 2021 because passes close in the winter. That process has not started yet.
(b) The additional warehousing would be less of an issue and the problem is actually getting the food to these remote areas quickly enough. An extensive shortage of food is expected by end of Oct 2021 in these remote areas if stocking does not go through. The Afghan population likely to affected by hunger in 2022, due to lack of Wheat and facing food insecurity is about 3 to 3.5 million people. Afghanistan also depends on Indian wheat imports, which is moved over land.
(c) With US freeze on reserves, food imports like Wheat may become an issue. But in terms of production and availability of grains, things are stable in Central Asia vis a vis Afghanistan. More important than the lack of food imports, is total stoppage of exports to India. India consumes a lot of Afghan agricultural exports. About US$1.5 billion dollars annually — which is going to result in produce rotting in the fields, as they are suddenly cut-off from their markets. India buys mostly dry fruits, fresh fruits and asofetida which are moved using air freight. As air freight is closed for now, farmers don’t have access to the Indian markets.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
@ngatimozart Blame it on my Finance/Banking background, however even if Qatar, Saudi or even Turkey want to provide money or trade for Afghanistan, what kind of currency they can use? None of them have their own currency as what we in Finance Industry can call hard currency. As I have wrote some time ago on Iranian thread, International trade still work on hard currency, or currency that tradeable (high trade volume) in global currency market.
Like it or not due to Chinese global trading position, Yuan now can be considered Hard Currency. Off course it's position is not as liquid in Market as Euro, and still far from USD, but it's increasingly tradeable thus can be considered Hard Currency now days. Off course Saudi and Qatar has tons of hard currency in their reserve. However they certainly can't used USD and doubtful in future on using Euro or other Hard Currency.
So that's left Chinese Yuan. Means even Qatar and Saudi to support Afghanistan, they potentially have to used Yuan on providing currency medium to provide goods for Afghanistan.
An expert says the Taliban have 'almost no chance' of getting their hands on the Afghan central bank's nearly $10 billion in reserves that's mostly stashed in New York
"It's all but impossible, to tell you the truth, both practically and legally," Robert Hockett, a Cornell University professor of law and finance, said.
www.businessinsider.com
Put this article to shown just like Iran decades ago, US can stop any usage on Iranian trade on USD. Thus just up to present time, it's provide hard choices for anyone who wants to trade with Iran, and again this provide high cost trade for Iran.
Any nation need to trade to live. Yes Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi can provide direct goods for humanitarian life line in beginning. However providing economics engine to move, jobs to create, then there's need to revive Afghanistan economy. That's means trade. That's where hard currency come to calculation, and so far the only hard currency that's seems available only Chinese Yuan.
That's why I say in my previous post, that seems Chinese Yuan will take over USD on Afghan foreign trade. This means whoever wants to take part in Afghanistan influence game, have to work with China. That's why India getting sulkier knowing China (and Pakistan) wash away all their efforts on getting ground in Afghan. That's why Iran getting cautious on Pakistan riding Chinese wagon in Afghanistan.
All of this scenario can be different if US and EU let USD and Euro to be used with economics activities. Afghan do have something to trade with, however unless USD or Euro, or British Pound can come to play, it's all left to Chinese Yuan. Will US and EU going to left Afghan to China ? That's the question.
Agree on Taliban making problem for them selves. However the question right now is how far China going to play in future. Questions also does Taliban knows that playing with China alone will tight the noose on their neck to China ? Will they trade one master to another ?
Many scenarios will still play ahead, from where I see.
Indeed. Still very early days to form any conclusions. Only time will tell. The Taliban leadership will also have various internal issues to sort out. How it behaves will also depend on the type and level of pressure applied by certain countries.
The leadership however has to get a better grip of things. The impression one gains is that there is a certain disconnect between what the leadership wants and what local commanders on the ground do.
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If the Taliban were that naive it wouldn't have survived this long. They full realise the need to take advantage of what China offers but not be too dependent on it. Afghans after all have been playing a hedging game with foreigners for centuries.
They also never had a "master" per see. Even Pakistan was never able to fully control them. As the British Imperial saying goes : you can rent an Afghan but never actually own him.
On China how far it goes remains to be seen but it's safe to assume that it won't make the mistake others have made, will make every attempt to safeguard its investments and will not readily hand over cash in return for nothing and no guarantees. .
A lot has been said and assumed of China but I actually see the pontetial for China playing a positive role in Afghanistan, together with various other countries.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
China is only interested Afghanistan rare earth deposits and some degree of influence over the Taliban. Whether this turns out to be positive, time will tell.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
The value is indeed relatively small and no doubt largely pledged as an attempt to make China look like a humanitarian. Note that it's not cash but "stuff" including vaccines. Not exactly super-valuable if it's Sinopharm given it's not nearly as good as NA/European alternatives, but China is still attaching an unknown cash value to them.
Still no answers from the Taliban as to where the money to run Afghanistan and provide services is going to come from - or maybe they have no plan for providing services in a meaningful way and will just let infrastructure degrade as it did after the Soviets left.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Well that's depend in the end how much legitimation the Taliban can get from outside those who are now already leaning to put their legitimation toward Taliban. However if they want to reduce their dependencies toward China, then getting EU legitimation is important. I'm not putting US as it's very unlikely.
You need to do trade to live. Taliban need to revive Economy by trade to provide some kind of stability in Afghanistan. If they can't get EU, whose going to provide balance to China ? Gulf Kingdoms will not simply be enough. Without that, reducing dependencies on China is easier to talk than done.
Changing one master to another perhaps bit strong word (this's talking master of Afghanistan Government, not Taliban). Don't overestimated Taliban abilities to keep Afghanistan under leashes if they can't provide livelihood for their citizen. Being successful insurgence is very different then being successful governing. We see how many insurgence that fall apart when they win the country all over the world.
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Every outside power which got inivolved in the country, from Britain to the Soviet Union to the U S., had ulterior motives, a reason for being there. Why should China be any different?
I had previously spoken of the Taliban seeking legitimacy, what I meant was official dealings/duakogues rather than actual official diplomatic recognition which I doubt any country [even China] will do anytime soon. The Taliban knows fully ware that having contacts with certain countries will help facilitate humanitarian aid and investment. Just like how it's aware that having ties with the likes of Russia and China [both permanent Security Council members] helps insulate it against possible actions taken by certain other countries.
Indeed but we must also not underestimate the ability of the Taliban to play of one country against the other to fully maximise whatever advantages can be gained. The fact that the Taliban established and maintained contacts with various countries as far back as a few years ago is indicative of the fact that it has already put in a lot of thought in how it was going to manage the country after it gained control of it and has recognised that it can't adopt the same approach it did in 1996 and the years leading to 11th September 2001 when there was practically zero thought given to the economy.
No single country will be able or is willing to solve all Afgjnistan's finacial issues. The initial plan is that hrlp/aid/investment from several countries [Russia. China. India, Pakistan, Saudi, the U.A.E, Qatar and Turkey], in addition to humanitarian aid and aditional sources of revenue such as taxes from cross border trade, will help start get country back on its feet again.
Interesting talk with a former American General who served both in Iraq and Afghanistan. He mentions stuff widely known such as American hubris, lack of humility and overconfidence when going into Afghanistan, the flawed decision to go into Iraq and failures to implement a nationwide literacy programme which would have paid huge dividends later. He also makes the point that although ordinary Iraqis and Afghans wanted a better future, most [hardly surprising but a fact often overlooked by outsiders] were against the presence of foreign occupation troops.
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He also points out that Karzai [at one point all his security detail were Americans]and Ghani [he previously had U S. citizenship] were viewed by many locals [Iraqi exiles whom ingratiated themselves with the Americans were viewed the same way], as outsiders who were American puppets. In previous posts I had pointed out the distinction between Afghans which supported the Taliban due to ideology and those which did for other reasons.
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Terran
Well-Known Member
First commercial flights have resumed out of Afghanistan destination Qatar. Said a number of westerners and American citizens are aboard. They have landed but numbers unknown. Afghanistan updates: Flight carrying Americans lands in Qatar
Official numbers from Biden state department claim 100-200 left behind. Unofficial (questionable) reports from outside sources have claimed from 500 to 1,500. Stranded since August 31. 5 have been known to have escaped.
Official numbers from Biden state department claim 100-200 left behind. Unofficial (questionable) reports from outside sources have claimed from 500 to 1,500. Stranded since August 31. 5 have been known to have escaped.
1. This is good news. Qatar has a must do mission — help Americans stuck there (who want to get out), to depart Afghanistan.
2. I couldn’t care less about what the spokeswoman of China’s Foreign Ministry say about Afghanistan. The Chinese are going to attempt to paint the U.S. in a bad light. But that does not change reality — which is a power vacuum that regional powers will tend to fill — given how much the Taliban suck at governing.
(a) According to World Bank data, Afghan GDP - the total value of goods and services produced in an economy - grew from US$4 billion in 2002 to $20.56 billion in 2013. But growth slowed dramatically when, in 2014, most foreign combat troops - a key source of income - left the country with the departure of the ISAF.
(b) Afghanistan's GDP growth fell from around 14% in 2012 to as little as 1.5% by 2015. By 2020, the economy under Ashraf Ghani was in recession — a lack of investment in cold stores and packaging facilities has held back Afghanistan's ability to make more from fruit and vegetable exports, with at least a 1/4 of agricultural products reckoned to deteriorate after being harvested to such an extent that they cannot be sold.
(c) The new Taliban government desperately needs funds to function, but the Taliban has not been given access to overseas assets belonging to the Afghan central bank. To make matters worse, Afghanistan’s economic outlook is bleak, with real GDP forecasted to shrink by 9.7% in FY2021 (before the Afghan government under Ashraf Ghani fell) and see a further drop of 5.2% in FY2022, according to a Fitch Group analysis.
3. Agreed. Guns and goons only go so far. From what I see, the Taliban really don’t care about governing — they don’t care about buying Wheat and stocking it before winter closes some roads — to prevent starvation for 3 to 3.5 million people (more than 10% of their population), from Oct 2021 onwards.
(a) President Biden’s decision is boosting the natural order of things and forcing Afghanistan’s neighbors, who have more of a stake in Afghanistan attaining some political stability, to assume more responsibility. If the U.S. absence creates a vacuum, let countries that share a land border like Pakistan, Iran and China be sucked into it.
(b) Beijing’s contribution of US$31 million is just the start of a sucking sound. Even if the Chinese donated US$331 million, it will not make a difference given the expected economic decline of Afghanistan. It makes perfect sense for the Americans to stop-loss, given the estimated US$2 billion contraction in GDP for FY2021 (a forecast made before the fall of Kabul). This economic contraction is very serious and no amount of aid from China can make up for economic fundamentals.
4. There is an assumption buried within the confines of the U.S. National Security community that a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan will again revert to its pre-9/11 status as a safe-haven for international terrorism. That may not be true as there are other factors to consider. Many Afghans on Twitter are part of the diaspora and have a privileged role. They could use this platform in constructive ways, especially if they hear from their relatives on the return of al-Qaeda. Unfortunately, it seems that many of them are busy with enabling fake news.
5. Ruling Afghanistan is not just about having guns and goons in Kabul — the rural provinces and their needs matter too. As Daniel DePetris wrote: “None of this is meant to predict Taliban behavior or defend them in any way. Rather, it's to provide some perspective to the conventional wisdom. U.S. officials must be prepared for all scenarios.”
(a) While the Taliban and al-Qaeda have a relationship and will likely retain a relationship into the future (regardless of what the Feb 2020 Doha deal says), Taliban leaders are also mindful of previous errors in judgment where al-Qaeda was given a wide berth and resulted in a disastrous 20 years for the Taliban.
(b) During the Taliban’s first stint in power, the Taliban made a decision to welcome Osama Bin Laden into Afghanistan. They gave his network a significant support and latitude, as they needed his money to fight the Northern Alliance. Many Taliban weren't thrilled with OBL — his declaration of war against the U.S. and the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania was a fact that was displeased by the Taliban, who believed it was needlessly counterproductive to their staying power.
(c) Taliban restores dreaded Ministry for 'Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice' in Afghanistan. In 1990s, ministry enforced Taliban's repressive morality laws. The Ministry's feared police force were notorious for publicly punishing offenders — cutting off arms, hangings and other forms of punishment will soon resume.
6. Let me recall a few key moments in this 20 year war that impacted both the trajectory of the war and U.S.-Pakistan relations in Dec 2001. These were:
(a) the Bonn Agreement (a diplomatic initiative intended to establish the first post-Taliban government). The Bonn Agreement was a challenge, where all anti-Taliban groups had to assemble together, putting aside their own differences in order to agree to an interim agreement without the buy in of Pakistan; and
(b) the failed Tora Bora operation to apprehend or kill Osama Bin Laden. When Tora Bora happened, Pakistan came to know about it from other sources before it found out the news from the United States itself.
7. During the Tora Bora operation, Pakistan was providing logistical support to the US through the use of 3 military bases within Pakistan, and yet the United States did not take Pakistan into confidence regarding its Tora Bora operation. As a result of Tora Bora, a lot of Al-Qaeda members fled into Pakistan through the porous border. When US SEALs killed Osama Bin Laden, the 2011 operation that was naturally planned without the Pakistani state’s knowledge. This resulted in an awkward situation for Pakistan. What allowed the relationship to work during this time, was the backchannel contacts that helped diffuse tensions.
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When OBL arrived he was provided refuge as per Pashtunwali. The Talibs had mixed feelings about him but eventually he won them over and they saw a benefit in having him there. As he started denouncing Saudi from Afghan soil the Saudis sent a delegation which declined an offer by the Taliban to hand him over. Saudi of course was the Taliban's main sponsor then.
The Americans stated taking an interest but were constrained by law as to what they could supply the Northern Alliance. A plan to supply long range rifles felll through when was pointed out that fitted with scopes they could be used for aassination. Not long before his death and 11th September 2001 Massoud spoke in Europe about the danger of AQ.
If anyone is interested in OBL's early days in Afghanistan, including the circumstances behind his arrival, the lukewarm reception of the Taliban and American inertia, I highly recommend Cool's"Ghost Wars".
Also, too much emphasis has been placed on the role Pakistan played without looking into the vital role Saudi Arabia [a key U.S. ally] played.
The Americans stated taking an interest but were constrained by law as to what they could supply the Northern Alliance. A plan to supply long range rifles felll through when was pointed out that fitted with scopes they could be used for aassination. Not long before his death and 11th September 2001 Massoud spoke in Europe about the danger of AQ.
If anyone is interested in OBL's early days in Afghanistan, including the circumstances behind his arrival, the lukewarm reception of the Taliban and American inertia, I highly recommend Cool's"Ghost Wars".
Also, too much emphasis has been placed on the role Pakistan played without looking into the vital role Saudi Arabia [a key U.S. ally] played.
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Within days [or less] of the Americans leaving Al Jazeera reported that Qatari experts with a special forces detail had arrived at the airport. I see this a a very positive development as the Qataris can help manage the airport, enabling humanitarian aid to flow in and to enable anyone [not just Americans or Westerners] to leave.
Meanwhile, not much news on the Panjshir.
Meanwhile, not much news on the Panjshir.
The sarcasm aside, pertinent questions we should ponder are [1] Is there are major disagreement or schism amongst the leadership as to the future direction that must be taken [2] Is there a probem in filtering down or desiminating orders from the top to the rank and file [3] Are local commanders intentionally ignoring orders from the top [4] Is it a case of local commanders not being fully able to ensure that subordinate commanders and men follow orders.
We also have bear in mind that this is the Taliban. Even newly elected governments/officials of countries with strong democratic traditions and institutions can take time getting things in order.
On women's rights I'm all for it. Bear in mind however that a lot of what the Taliban does with regards to women are not based on strict interpretation of Wahabism but of Pashtun culture. Also, there is no doubt that during the American presence or occupation the rights of women were advanced but in reality how much so. Not only that but how far is Afghan society |apart from the urbanised Afghaπs] willing to go?
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