Indonesian Aero News

[Sandhi Yudha]

Few days ago, there's a meeting between ROK Foreign Minister and his counterpart from Indonesia. There're several items that being talk and sign for further cooperation. However my point is the difference perspective from each nation media reporting base on each minister perspective.

Indonesia dan Korea Selatan Bekerja Sama Kembangkan Vaksin COVID-19

Menteri Luar Negeri Retno Marsudi, Jumat (25/6) menerima mitranya, Menteri Luar Negeri Korea Selatan Chung Eui-yong, di kantornya di Jakarta. Keduanya membahas kerja sama bilateral, termasuk soal penanganan pandemi COVID-19.

www.voaindonesia.com

Top diplomats of S. Korea, Indonesia agree on close cooperation for joint fighter project | Yonhap News Agency

SEOUL, June 25 (Yonhap) -- The top diplomats of South Korea and Indonesia agreed Friday to...

m-en.yna.co.kr

So ROK media talk more on defense cooperation while from Indonesia talk more on Vacinne development perpective. Doesn't mean both cooperation has not been in the agenda. However this shown in my opinion the difference perpective agenda.

Korsel Berharap Bisa Kembangkan Kapal Selam dengan Indonesia

Menteri Luar Negeri Korsel, Chung Eui-yong menuturkan, kerjasama pertahanan Indonesia-Korsel cukup baik, tapi dia ingin kerjasma kedua negara terus diperluas. Korea...

international.sindonews.com

This is the only Indonesian media outlet that mentioning defense cooperation during the visit. According to this, it's ROK Foreign Minister that shown the hope on continues defense cooperation.

RI Dorong Peningkatan Perlindungan Pekerja Migran dan ABK Indonesia di Korea Selatan - Tribunnews.com

(Menlu RI) Retno Marsudi menerima kunjungan Menteri Luar Negeri Korea Selatan (Korsel) Chung Eui Yong di kantor Kemlu RI, Jakarta, Jumat (25/6/2021)

www.tribunnews.com

While Indonesian Foreign Minister talk more on protection of Indonesian workers in South Korea.

Thus the way I see it. Both ROK and Indonesia foreign minister sign further agreement on development Vaccine Covid cooperation. However they emphasise different agenda asside Health/Covid, with Indonesian side emphasises workers/economic cooperation and ROK side emphasis more on defense cooperation.

As this is Defense forum, It will be interesting how the ROK agenda on Submarine and Fighter development will further receive from Indonesian side.

Thank you for sharing.

|"Korea Selatan (Korsel) berharap bisa terus meningkatkan kerjasama pertahanan dengan Indonesia. Seoul ingin kerjasama tersebut sampai ke tingkat pengembangan peralatan militer, salah satunya adalah kapal selam."|

Hope/wish/plan to....
Agreements to increase/improve defence cooperation ....Indonesia has many of such agreements, sometimes even multiple times with some countries.

Its actually not something new. Nothing has changed the last years.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1409389365273325580

@Sandhi Yudha please don't accuse me obsessing with this guy tweet

I put this just show how some 'agent'/'insiders' still try hard to get the foreign credit line increase significantly. Talking about increasing to USD 50 bio on this term only ? Wow that's more than double then the MoF and Bapenas willing to allow so far.

Well it can be still raise to meet his tweet number if:
1. The additional foreign credit line disbursement happen in next term (who knows next term is Prabowo's one), or
2. Jokowi's willing to sacrifice significant part of his dream's Projects in order to make Prabowo's demand.

For one thing he knows that with USD 20.7 bio foreign credit line ceiling that the 'finance' guys set so far, it can afford Fincantieri deals, but not Dasault or Naval Group Submarine deals (which is his bread and butter). Perhaps this's one of reason why Fincantieri already quite confident to put their deal publicly, while Frenchie still cautious. No wonder he dreams for more than double on the credit lines allowed by finance guys.

National Audit Bureau (BPK) already told publicly that the amount of Government debt line is already alarming. To be honest most Nation's Global debt ratio already reach alarming points due to COVID. However that's doesn't mean the market willing to accept that for long.

Again the question is, how much of the line going to be committed for this term. How much is the line can be given without jeopardizing Indonesia sovereign book well being.

Still it's fun to see how the 'defense' insider try to work out on getting the 'finance' people agree on additional credit line. My prediction if Prabowo's team manage to bargain with Jokowi's team, perhaps they can get the 'finance' guys squeeze in 20% additional line. However the dream for double or more for this term ?

Well let's see how far the defense 'insiders' dream can fight for their 'bread and butter' projects.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1409389365273325580

@Sandhi Yudha please don't accuse me obsessing with this guy tweet

I put this just show how some 'agent'/'insiders' still try hard to get the foreign credit line increase significantly. Talking about increasing to USD 50 bio on this term only ? Wow that's more than double then the MoF and Bapenas willing to allow so far.

Well it can be still raise to meet his tweet number if:
1. The additional foreign credit line disbursement happen in next term (who knows next term is Prabowo's one), or
2. Jokowi's willing to sacrifice significant part of his dream's Projects in order to make Prabowo's demand.

For one thing he knows that with USD 20.7 bio foreign credit line ceiling that the 'finance' guys set so far, it can afford Fincantieri deals, but not Dasault or Naval Group Submarine deals (which is his bread and butter). Perhaps this's one of reason why Fincantieri already quite confident to put their deal publicly, while Frenchie still cautious. No wonder he dreams for more than double on the credit lines allowed by finance guys.

National Audit Bureau (BPK) already told publicly that the amount of Government debt line is already alarming. To be honest most Nation's Global debt ratio already reach alarming points due to COVID. However that's doesn't mean the market willing to accept that for long.

Again the question is, how much of the line going to be committed for this term. How much is the line can be given without jeopardizing Indonesia sovereign book well being.

Still it's fun to see how the 'defense' insider try to work out on getting the 'finance' people agree on additional credit line. My prediction if Prabowo's team manage to bargain with Jokowi's team, perhaps they can get the 'finance' guys squeeze in 20% additional line. However the dream for double or more for this term ?

Well let's see how far the defense 'insiders' dream can fight for their 'bread and butter' dream.

No i am not SAYING that you are completely obsessed with the Oracle on Twitter.

|" 2. Jokowi's willing to sacrifice significant part of his dream's Projects in order to make Prabowo's demand."|
Will not happen. Why should he? Those projects have number 1 priority for Jokowi and friends.

|" However the dream for double or more for this term ? "|
Only fanboys and hardcore fanatic Oracle-sect followers will believe it will happen.

 

[Ananda]

Only fanboys and hardcore fanatic Oracle-sect followers will believe it will happen.

When I see some of FB pages, Blogs, Tweets or Forums on Indonesian defense enthusiasts, seems they are not realize how dire the country Financial due this COVID condition. In fact the overall Global Financial condition is very dire.

It will take two years to fully recover for the best condition nation's and three for the rest. Thus the rest of Jokowi's term, is basically recovery stage. No nation can piled up their debt ratio during recovery stage, unless they are taking risk loosing market and Investors confidences.

So whatever the finance people going to give agreement on foreign credit limit for defense projects, the most important thing is how much they can allow to secure/book by this end of Jokowi's period (2024). If they agree for defense procurement foreign credit ceiling of 50, 75 ,100 or even 125 bio USD, but only 25 bio USD that they agree to be secure by end of 2024, then that's it. Since what ever they're going to schedule after 2024, it doesn't matter. It will depend on next administration whether going to execute or not.

The decision will depend on Jokowi's it self. How much he's willing to set asside for defense procurement during the economic recovery stage. Because that's what happens after this COVID episode, economics and financial recovery stage.

Still whatever your opinion on him, he's still taking Sri Mulyani's opinion as his CFO. Knowing SM so far, she's not want the gamble on nation sovereign debt ratio too much. Jokowi's already increase the debt ratio from 27% by end of SBY's era that he's inherited, toward 41% now due to COVID situation. That's why BPK already send their hard warning. Will Jokowi's willing to gamble his legacy only for defense projects ?

I'm no Jokowi's fan let alone supporters. However I don't think even he will gamble more on Nation's debt ratio.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

When I see some of FB pages, Blogs, Tweets or Forums on Indonesian defense enthusiasts, seems they are not realize how dire the country Financial due this COVID condition. In fact the overall Global Financial condition is very dire.

It will take two years to fully recover for the best condition nation's and three for the rest. Thus the rest of Jokowi's term, is basically recovery stage. No nation can piled up their debt ratio during recovery stage, unless they are taking risk loosing market and Investors confidences.

So whatever the finance people going to give agreement on foreign credit limit for defense projects, the most important thing is how much they can allow to secure/book by this end of Jokowi's period (2024). If they agree for defense procurement foreign credit ceiling of 50, 75 ,100 or even 125 bio USD, but only 25 bio USD that they agree to be secure by end of 2024, then that's it. Since what ever they're going to schedule after 2024, it doesn't matter. It will depend on next administration whether going to execute or not.

The decision will depend on Jokowi's it self. How much he's willing to set asside for defense procurement during the economic recovery stage. Because that's what happens after this COVID episode, economics and financial recovery stage.

Still whatever your opinion on him, he's still taking Sri Mulyani's opinion as his CFO. Knowing SM so far, she's not want the gamble on nation sovereign debt ratio too much. Jokowi's already increase the debt ratio from 27% by end of SBY's era that he's inherited, toward 41% now due to COVID situation. That's why BPK already send their hard warning. Will Jokowi's willing to gamble his legacy only for defense projects ?

I'm no Jokowi's fan let alone supporters. However I don't think even he will gamble more on Nation's debt ratio.

Yes, we will see. Maybe even the $20,7 will not be spent completely.

Anyway
|" It's expected Indonesia will acquire military aircraft before 2024. Indonesia has to spend Ministry of Finance's PSP for LIFT aircraft. If nothing change, South Korea may supply another T-50 LIFT aircraft for Indonesia. It's not clear yet whether it will equip with radar or not. "|

So someone's idol is really afraid that TNI-AU will get more T-50i LIFTs and warns that KAI maybe will deliver them without radar. Like KAI doesnt care about the contract and decides by them self if they want to install a radar or not.

I didn't even know LIFTs were on the priority list.

 

[Ananda]

didn't even know LIFTs were on the priority list.

That's has been talk before that the difference between LCA and LIFT in some AF including TNI-AU is interchangeable. T-50 if getting Radar and Combat Avionics basically become FA-50 or TA-50 (whatever they want to call it). That's what the attraction of T-50, it's modullar enough to be upgrade from LIFT to LCA in short time.

Anyway, from French Ambassador Twitter:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1409701407175806981

Seems Prabowo's in Europe now closing some loose end. Perhaps the foreign credit ceiling that's been given still enough to cover Rafale deals. That's will be interesting how much the package in the end.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1409714330258481169

No wonder he's happy. Two Tweets in a day, He must be thinking his bonus. Talking on defense industry cooperation, means the off set deals probably being agreed on. That's why he talk on off set deals in local media that put him as contributors.

Well if Prabowo's going with Rafale, the credit ceiling being set by Finance people will not be enough for other Fighter in AF, except for LIFT/LCA. Could it be the French agree on the deal for Rafale with of USD +/-5 bio package? This is just mathematical exercise I roughly made for AF wish list with Rafale deals on USD 20.7 bio limit.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

That's has been talk before that the difference between LCA and LIFT in some AF including TNI-AU is interchangeable. T-50 if getting Radar and Combat Avionics basically become FA-50 or TA-50 (whatever they want to call it). That's what the attraction of T-50, it's modullar enough to be upgrade from LIFT to LCA in short time.

Anyway, from French Ambassador Twitter:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1409701407175806981

Seems Prabowo's in Europe now closing some loose end. Perhaps the foreign credit ceiling that's been given still enough to cover Rafale deals. That's will be interesting how much the package in the end.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1409714330258481169

No wonder he's happy. Two Tweets in a day, He must be thinking his bonus. Talking on defense industry cooperation, means the off set deals probably being agreed on. That's why he talk on off set deals in local media that put him as contributors.

Well if Prabowo's going with Rafale, the credit ceiling being set by Finance people will not be enough for other Fighter in AF, except for LIFT/LCA. Could it be the French agree on the deal for Rafale with of USD +/-5 bio package? This is just mathematical exercise I roughly made for AF wish list with Rafale deals on USD 20.7 bio limit.

This is indeed a historic moment, never before your idol posted two tweets in one day, he certainly has to be very happy about it.

But dont be too euphoric,
how many times is there already a Defence Cooperation Agreemant signed with France and other countries?

Everything can still happen now, more meetings, more negotations and more agreements. Or cancellations. As long the PDI-P topmanagement and luhut do not give a green light, Jokowi will not approve anything.

 

[Ananda]

how many times is there already a Defence Cooperation Agreemant signed with France and other countries?

Understandable for your doubt on that. Below the official article on this signing from MinDef official sites. In sense it's in my opinion have similarities with what Prabowo's already signed with his counterpart in Japan.

https://www.kemhan.go.id/2021/06/28/menhan-prabowo-tandatangani-perjanjian-kerja-sama-pertahanan-ri-perancis.html

We don't see the progress of 30FFM (which many said become base for that agreement), and so far we haven't seen what the results on this French agreement yet (which speculate will be Rafale).

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Understandable for your doubt on that. Below the official article on this signing from MinDef official sites. In sense it's in my opinion have similarities with what Prabowo's already signed with his counterpart in Japan.

https://www.kemhan.go.id/2021/06/28/menhan-prabowo-tandatangani-perjanjian-kerja-sama-pertahanan-ri-perancis.html

We don't see the progress of 30FFM (which many said become base for that agreement), and so far we haven't seen what the results on this French agreement yet (which speculate will be Rafale).

Yes, many times articles about signing Defence Cooperation Agreements are posted here, #1419 and recently #2100 are some examples. And in Januari this year the Minister of Defence also visited France to "strengthen the defense partnership between both states".


Btw, i didnt know TNI-AU has ordered and received 4 inflatable shelters/hangars.

Aircraft hangar for Indonesian Air Force

Repair bunkers for small repairs in the fighter fleet with the possibility of rapid relocation and rapid construction in 24 hours.

avia.air-hangar.com

It looks weird probably to shelter jetfighters inside, but these new inflatable shelters give better protection against the weather than the standard Indonesian Airforce shelters which only consist of a flat metal rooftop above the aircraft.

 

[ChestnutTree]

This has been circulating around the local defense forums. It seems that the Ministry of Defense has hired a DC based consulting and lobbying firm in order to assist with procuring defense articles from the United States Government. Their stated tasks are "to provide legal counsel and U.S. government relations counsel regarding the procurement of technology and defense related systems".

https://efile.fara.gov/docs/6573-Exhibit-AB-20210621-2.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1UHOsUxnLjOfehi3nDXIM8h-oWoJ5iI1wA_jOVhV9BVPJT1IhRgdwl4M4

I wasn't sure on where to post this, but seeing as the majority of US defense articles being procured/planned to be procured by the MoD is largely aviation in nature I figured this thread would be a better fit.

Curious to see if there is any interesting development that would occur from this. Maybe it is a sign that LM is slowly beating out Dassault behind the scenes?

 

[Ananda]

Curious to see if there is any interesting development that would occur from this. Maybe it is a sign that LM is slowly beating out Dassault behind the scenes?

The Twitter guy just put in his tweet on the need for Local Aerospace Industry to be further develop with the help of mature partner. This is nothing new, score of posters including my self already talk on SOE Ministry looking for partner to rejuvenate local defense Industry.

That 'Cipta Kerja' bill that this administration push recently, give room for Foreign defense Industry to invest (on their own or with partner) the capacity and capabilities locally. However who want to Invest in Indonesian defense Industry if they can't be guaranteed their products will be given priority on Defense Procurement ?

Airbus already want to further increase their Investment with DI as partner or on their own. However will Indonesia going to procure Eurofighter or A-400M instead Rafale or C-130J.

Investment in defense or other Investment in whole basically is Commercial decision not emotional and Political decision. So they will ask the host country to provide most of the market. I have put example on Chinese aviation forum on their effort to export their aviation products (civilian and Military) that still face 'acceptance' in market (asside their traditional customers already). This shown abilities to build and export the product (especially defense) is completely two different thing.

Why I put this toward Prabowo's effort to Lobby US, cause it is related with Jokowi's Political stand on getting as much as benefits to local Industry for foreign procurement Projects especially big items. So I suspect besides lobby Washington for what assets can be allowed to procure, also lobby on what kind on off set and tech Investment that can be given to local Industry.

Cause the Investment in local defense Industry at most is reducing the Import content for Indonesia own defense procurement. The export opportunity from that will only be very minimal (if any). Again, will this administration can commit for sustainable procurement? Can they guarantee to whoever that put Investment on defense will got priority on procurement? Can the Political circles withstanding temptation for getting short term new projects, every new term?

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1413582728524701717

I can't help it, for me this's funny as it's shown his 'nervousness' . He already talk about off set deals with Dasault on 'cautious' tone before. Are his Frenchie clients getting more nervous ? Are they nervous with some US competitors who probably already given better packages ? Including Investment and Offset deals ?

Some time ago he just can't hide his 'confidence' when Prabowo and Parly sign 'understanding' in Paris on defense co-op. Are he's now getting nervous with Prabowo's move on hiring hired gun doing lobby in Washington ?

This guy really easy to read despite all his try to mask it through 'mysterious' aura in Twitter world. Can't help it to continue pock him

Perhaps this also create his nervousness. Latest Prabowo's speech when giving lectures in Padjajaran University, on how the importance on getting efficient with Defense Budget.

Prabowo: Kalau Ada Uang Beli F15-Rafale, Datang 3 Tahun Lagi!

Menhan Prabowo menegaskan pengadaan alutsista tak bisa buru-buru butuh tahunan untuk sampai datang ke Indonesia walaupun ada uang untuk membelinya.

www.cnbcindonesia.com

Asside usual his talk that Indonesia defense budget still small (only 0.8% of GDP and 5% of Government budget). He also talk on buying F-15, Su-35, and Rafale will need up to 6 years to be fully operational. Then he talk what happens if something dire happen during that 6 years ?

Are he subtlety implied other vendor (probably the ones that already have long term relationship with TNI), already give packages that not only provide reasonable off set, Tech Transfer or even defense capacity Investment? While at same time provide faster delivery and operationality of new capabilities ?

This's just getting interesting. Off course as I have wrote before, they will not making big procurement decision (at least publicly) until at least this round of COVID increase getting under control or significant portion of population getting vaccination.

Still it's fun reading his nervousness.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Your idol just posted this 15 minutes ago!

It's likely Indonesia wants to replace its Bell 47 fleet as training helo with the new one. A European made helo type has been preferred by Indonesia. The only challenge is when government will allocate budget for Bell 47 replacement program. There are many competing priorities.

I dont know what he is talking about, but wasn't the Bell 47 already retired more than a decade ago?

 

[ChestnutTree]

Are he subtlety implied other vendor (probably the ones that already have long term relationship with TNI), already give packages that not only provide reasonable off set, Tech Transfer or even defense capacity Investment? While at same time provide faster delivery and operationality of new capabilities ?

Would Dassault even be able to counter-offer LM if they used AMARG F-16's as a sweetener? I'm not entirely sure on how much used Rafales that the Armee de l'Air can transfer to potential Rafale buyers.

Also, a comment in a defense group piqued my attention the other day. A lot of Indonesians seems to think that because Dassault is offering MRO capabilities for the Rafale, then that would automatically alleviate the logistical issues from introducing them to the TNI AU. However what most people don't seem to understand is that it took PTDI and the TNI AU decades to achieve the level of maintenance self sufficiency for the F-16's we have in operation. What makes them think it won't be the same case if the Rafale gets introduced?

 

[Ananda]

dont know what he is talking about, but wasn't the Bell 47 already retired more than a decade ago?

Perhaps he doesn't have anthing new to add. However he has to keep his tweet going every day. TNI-AU as you have wrote, already replace their Traning helicopter with EC-120b for some time.

“BELL 47 G-3B-1 SIOUX” Pencetak Calon Penerbang Helikopter

“BELL 47 G-3B-1 SIOUX” Pencetak Calon Penerbang Helikopter - TNI Angkatan Udara

tni-au.mil.id

Even TNI-AL also already use EC-120b as traning helicopter. Only TNI-AD that still use Hughes 300C as traning helicopter, one of that has accident recently. Perhaps that's what he's talking, as so far Army Air Wing still used that old Hughes 300C as basic training.

DISLAIKAD LAKSANAKAN UJI FUNGSI HELIKOPTER LATIH S 300 C PENERBAD

Sakinah, Mawaddah & Warahmah

dislaik-tniad.mil.id

Tell you the truth, instead using EC-120b as basic training just as Air Force and Navy do, I do like (on context of training cost) the aproach that Air Police (Polud) which using Robinson R44 as basic training.

Would Dassault even be able to counter-offer LM if they used AMARG F-16's as a sweetener? I'm not entirely sure on how much used Rafales that the Armee de l'Air can transfer to potential Rafale buyers

They already done that toward Greece. LM has more capabilities to offer Used/Upgrade + New Build Combo deals. Dasault will have more limitation on doing that, however they already done it with Greece.

Potentialy this is what happen ? Well if you want to have operational Rafale or F-16V or F-15E, then the combo approach is the way to do. It's also reducing your procurement budget.

I have talk in this thread couple of years ago when the info come out on TNI-AU interest with F-16V. There're surplus Block 30/40 that can be converted to V standard. It's all back to budget and delivery time table need.

As logistical stand point, those who think that DI and TNI-AU don't need prolong learning curve on maintaining Rafale are just fanboys that kidding them selves. Any new introduction of new assets will need more learning curve. Even with F-16V. However with F-16V is the shortest learning curve due to TNI-AU supporting infrastructure and familiarities with F-16 families. It's just fleet optimisation 101 that work whether on Commercial or Military fleets.

 

[ChestnutTree]

I have talk in this thread couple of years ago when the info come out on TNI-AU interest with F-16V. There're surplus Block 30/40 that can be converted to V standard. It's all back to budget and delivery time table need.

I would say the DoD's Excess Defense Articles program is a very attractive offer that (CMIIW) France would have a tough time to beat. Maybe in time Prabowo would realize that procuring 2 squadrons of newly built Vipers + however many airframes the US government would be willing to transfer can be seen as a net positive in his third presidential run.

 

[Ananda]

Maybe in time Prabowo would realize that procuring 2 squadrons of newly built Vipers + however many airframes the US government would be willing to transfer can be seen as a net positive in his third presidential run.

Euro zone so far has provided alternative for the 'diversification' thinking that still looming hard on some factions in Military brass and Political circles. Especially after they see Geopolitically it's too risky to breach CAATSA. Our Navy is basically Euro Centric even since Soeharto era (especially with Habibie basically what the German call 'our guy in Jakarta'). Our Army is also has more procurement from Euro zone, except in Army Air Wing (Penerbad).

TNI-AU so far still the only services that more US Centric then other services. It's simply because they switched from Sovyet equipment in 60's toward US equipment since 70's. So Frenchie knows well, despite Prabowo's leaning to them, US still has big influence. They will not forget how Mirage IIIe got beaten by F-5E and Mirage 2000 got beaten by F-16 during competition in Indonesia.

Dasault will also not forgot how their efforts to offer Super Etandard beaten twice by first the A4 and later with Hawk 200 (when they are competing with BAe for license production with IPTN). Frankly speaking with that much bitter results with TNI-AU competition, I'm bit surprised Frenchie still want to compete.

However this time around, I only see the potential Frenchie lost again only to budgetary concern. If the Finance people still can provide/agree on the financing scheme on Rafale, Prabowo's will still go with Frenchie. How far they willing to allow foreign credit line after current COVID condition, that's still the question. Will the USD 20 bio limit for this term, still available ? Will that be enough for TNI-AU wish list with Rafale ?

I do believe that Twitter guy knows well USD 20bio will not be enough for 2 sq of Rafale package with other TNI-AU lists. That's why he once tweet for more line above USD 20bio limit on this term. However I do sense it's enough for 2 sq of F-16V packages. Why do you think his tweet getting nervous ?

How two F-16s from the US Air Force’s ‘boneyard’ will find a second life as digital models

From a collection of dismantled F-16s parts, the Air Force hopes to build a "digital twin" of the jet.

dfn.news

Just add the extend of US willingness to continue support the F-16, even the old fleet. So those Fanboys that talking of F-16 as old 'trash' that will not be supported in the next one or two decade, really should ask the other way around. Will Rafale, Eurofighter, or even Flankers will continue have large support infrastructure two decades from now ?

 

[Ananda]

https://www.facebook.com/181276675314017/posts/3807673519340963

From Kris FB page. Seems some Kris contributor find old US Congress briefing on potential selling of Four E-2C for Indonesia. If I remember that time, asside the budget problem, Soeharto administration also more interested with the offer from Bush Administration of 29 F-16 blk15 OCU that being hold to be send to Pakistan. TNI interested due similarities with their own F-16.

The negotiations on that offer prolong toward Clinton administration. Indonesia only want to take 9 but US insisted on overall fighters, so they can reimburse Pakistan. Despite the problem with East Timor, US has not cancelled the negotiations process. Soeharto are the ones that hold the process, due his ego being hurt by some US Congressman and Senators on matter of East Timor (especially after Santa Cruz incident).

He's the one that decide to order 12 Su-30 from Russia as shown to US he's not to be dictated. However even then the US still open for more F-16. Only after he's down and the miss handling of East Timor after referendum by TNI, that US put embargo on defense items.

Just as reminder US actually willing to provide more advance defense items. Just like now, the question is always can Indonesia have enough budget not only to procure but also to operate ?

 

[Ananda]

KAI, 인도네시아에 T-50i 추가 수출…2천745억원 규모

한국항공우주산업(KAI)은 인도네시아 국방부(공군)와 전술입문훈련기 T-50i 추가 도입·수출 공급계약을 맺었다고 20일 공시했다. KAI는 이번 계약으로 인도네시아에 T-50i 전술입문훈련기 6대와 항공기 운영을 위한 후속 지원패키지를 수출한다. 계약 규모는 2천744억8천8

m.mk.co.kr

This South Korean article put a claim from KAI that already sign contract for 6 T-50 with Indonesian MinDef. Now the talk for additional LIFT has been around for sometime. The contract also include additional support for T-50 fleet within TNI-AU.

For me, if this administration still has not able to make decision on KFX/KF-21 involvement. Then better talk with KAI to switch the co-op for T-50/FA-50. For one thing the usage for LIFT and LCA is there for TNI-AU.

They can workout FA-50 or T-50 co-op with less Investment (either for DI infrastructure or supporting program) then involvement with KF-21. This especially (considering the actual budget that can be allocated), provide enough fleet for TNI-AU on doing patrol. While still provide enough fund to procure the Rafale that seems MinDef adamant to get.

There're still USD 1.2 bio budget for Su-35 that has been set asside from last term, but not being use due changes on procurement objective. That amount if being used for FA-50 can provide up to 2 squadron (thus can replace Hawk 200). Use that for co-op with KAI on getting at least final assembly line for T-50/FA-50. It's going to provide better learning curve for DI in Fighters business, then jumping to KF-21 class right away.

One thing that I have wrote so many times, DI has 'zero' experience on Fighters business. Not even MRO let alone system integration for Fighters. Only working some off set Projects with LM in 90's doing some Airframe parts. That's not can be said suitable learning curve toward fighters business.

Getting into KFX can represent jumping the curve, if there're suitable follow on Investment being provided by this administration. However so far there're no sign on that. Get the T-50/FA-50 as learning curve instead KF-21, if this administration or even the next one's has no appetite for larger commitment with Fighters learning curve.

Habibie wants to begin IPTN learning curve in Fighters with Hawk 200 due to several factors, but amount of Investment also big factor on that. Now try it with FA-50. It's also can give way out with KAI/ROK on this KFX/KF-21 dilemma.

 

[koxinga]

Awhile back, I was looking at TNI-AU's ORBAT and fleet composition. Other than the original F-16A/Bs acquired under Peace Bima Sena in the 1980s, the Hawk 200s were the oldest of the active fleet, being ordered in the mid 1990s. The F-16s will shoulder on since they are in the process of having the MLU. But the Hawks remain. I remember reading on some work being done to extend their service life including fatigue modelling (ANALISA USIA MAKSIMAL RANGKA PESAWAT HAWK 100 DAN HAWK 200 SKADRON UDARA 1 MENGGUNAKAN PENGHITUNGAN FATIQUE INDEX | Ariffandi | Suara Teknik : Jurnal Ilmiah). But they will probably need to be replaced sometime this decade.