Indonesian Aero News

[Sandhi Yudha]

| "This also means as @Ananda describes above that every new clique that holds the reigns needs to have new plans with their name on it that satisfies their own members. Pats the right people on the back and favors the people that need to be favored for this particular club of people to maintain their power. In these sorts of environments you end up with an air force that operates a bunch of different types but not enough of any one type to really make sense in the real world." |

Sad but true, but this is 100% the correct description of the reality.

I also never understand the reason to change the F-16V with the F-15. A combination of Rafale + F-16 makes more sense to me.

Btw, it seems IPTN made some improvements on the production line for the NC212i and CN235.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=3494331720667705&id=764115790355992

I onder when the production hall for the N219 is ready for operations.

 

[Toptob]

I know this might be heresy in the TNI AU, but why keep operating two front line fighter types? I don't see how operating both Rafale and F-16's would be better than just operating one of these types. Just run out the hours on the F-16's and those weapon stocks and build real numbers of Rafale's in the mean time. In an ideal world the TNI AU should be operating hundreds of frontline fighters.

 

[OPSSG]

Making rational choices in fighter procurement — Part 1

I know this might be heresy in the TNI AU, but why keep operating two front line fighter types? I don't see how operating both Rafale and F-16's would be better than just operating one of these types. Just run out the hours on the F-16's and those weapon stocks and build real numbers of Rafale's in the mean time. In an ideal world the TNI AU should be operating hundreds of frontline fighters.

1. I don’t understand your reasoning. The original plan was for a high-low mix.

2. As others have explained, Indonesia can’t afford in any significant numbers a twin engine fleet — be it a Dassault Rafale or the F-15EX. The transition to a single type will not occur.

3. From a per flight hour, operating cost standpoint, the F-15EX is even more expensive due to the need to train a WSO, on top of the pilot. But the really expensive part is the EW, pods and weapons (like anti-radiation missiles, anti-ship missiles, and all sorts of specialist pods, like UTC Aerospace’s DB-110, that make the sniper pod look cheap) to be operated by the pilot and WSO. If Indonesia can’t afford to maintain and operate these gadgets, buying any is a wrong choice.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1404890201265086466

4. What’s with Alman Helvas’ strong support for the French lobby against TNI AU’s prior declared wishes? IMO, Indonesia’s Air Force is being forced to accept the plan to buy 36 Dassault Rafale (with the need to buy 80 engines, catering for 4 spares) due to political interference by the French via Prabowo Subianto — it’s not the other way round. Even if Alman Helvas accuse Americans of lobbying, it’s only Lockheed Martin, as Boeing is only too keen to sell F-15EXs.

5. In my unsourced opinion from reading this thread, Prabowo Subianto’s gang just needs to pocket the commissions from various arms deals (as long as it is not from the US) — to fund his next election. Buying American fighters, missiles and bombs, through FMS means there is no scope for corruption for his gang.

6. If they are serious about air power and sortie generation, Indonesia should buy more F-16Vs and place an order for 66 F-16Vs like Taiwan, along with an order for 250 to 500 missiles (eg. 150 AIM-120Ds, 150 AIM-9X, 75 AGM-154A/B/Cs, 75 AGM-88E HARMs, and 50 Harpoon missiles), and all sorts of specialist pods that make the sniper pod look cheap.

​

(a) Without 500 to 1,000 missiles in the inventory, the TNI AU can’t decide to fight a PLA(N) task group — even if they decide to ram TNI AL ships as part of their escalation plans. This weapon inventory must include not only anti-ship missiles but also AGM-88E anti radiation missiles to force PLA(N) destroyers to turn-off their radars. The PLA(N) has bases in the South China Sea and big deck assault carriers — which means Indonesia also needs the range and weapons effects provided by AGM-158 JASSM.​

​

(b) The best weapons are useless unless you have ISR to see the target from a far. Without the DB-110 recce pod (which the Taiwanese and UAE have), a TNI AU commander can’t move towards a more persistent ISR capability (through increased on-station time, and real-time image exploitation) to monitor Chinese bases and PLA(N) destroyers in the South China Sea, just out of range of their anti-air missiles.​

7. To send a message of deterrence, the TNI AU needs ISR and be equipped with both the fighter and its missiles; and its instructor pilots and crew chiefs must be trained, to arm the weapons, to enable pilots to fly the relevant profiles to launch these missiles, so that the weapons can be employed correctly. By buying French fighters, Indonesia has to spend on new, great, incomparable and incompatible missiles to their existing F-16C fleet — I have nothing against the Dassault Rafale as a fighter, the SPECTRA integrated electronic warfare suite or French/European weapons (eg. Exocet missile, MBDA’s Meteor, MICA, AASM HAMMER, and SCALP EG missiles).

 

[Toptob]

@OPSSG as always you make concise, insightful and logical arguments. However I didn't propose that buying Rafale would be a better choice than buying F-16's, to be honest they're both fine. But my question was as such: "I don't see how operating both Rafale and F-16's would be better than just operating one of these types."

You make the following points:

1. I don’t understand your reasoning. The original plan was for a high-low mix.

2. As others have explained, Indonesia can’t afford in any significant numbers a twin engine fleet — be it a Dassault Rafale or the F-15EX. The transition to a single type will not occur.

I think your second point underlies my reasoning for what you don't understand in the first point. I wasn't talking from a "this is realistic" point of view and more from a "this would be the best option for the TNI AU" point of view. My reasoning is that an air force shouldn't be operating multiple types of frontline fighters if they can't afford a significant amount of either. I understand the circumstances and the arguments for buying this aircraft and then another one. But it mostly just sounds like there's some people that just want to fill their trough so they can invite their friends to stick their snouts in.

In the political reality this might just be how it has to be. But in a realistic sense that's not a good argument against operating a single type. I think the F-16 is a great aircraft, and I think the F-16V can be a relevant and useful platform for decades to come. So why not choose the F-16V and phase out the other frontline types when their F-16 replacements come online. I don't see what operating Flankers or Rafales beside them can bring that would justify the cost.

Ultimately, my point is that it's better to make a choice and stick with it and plan with it for the next few decades.

Edit:

So here's what I would propose:

1. Choose 1 fighter for the future, let's say the F-16V (it's the obvious choice).
2. Spend the money you save from a second type on air to air refueling capacity and some sort of awacs and/or sigint and/or mpa capability.
3. Build up the fighter fleet over several batches to alleviate budget pressure.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

3. From a per flight hour, operating cost standpoint, the F-15EX is even more expensive due to the need to train a WSO, on top of the pilot. But the really expensive part is the EW, pods and weapons (like anti-radiation missiles, anti-ship missiles, and all sorts of specialist pods, like UTC Aerospace’s DB-110, that make the sniper pod look cheap) to be operated by the pilot and WSO. If Indonesia can’t afford to maintain and operate these gadgets, buying any is a wrong choice.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1404890201265086466

4. What’s with Alman Helvas’ strong support for the French lobby against TNI AU’s prior declared wishes? IMO, Indonesia’s Air Force is being forced to accept the plan to buy 36 Dassault Rafale (with the need to buy 80 engines, catering for 4 spares) due to political interference by the French via Prabowo Subianto — it’s not the other way round. Even if Alman Helvas accuse Americans of lobbying, it’s only Lockheed Martin, as Boeing is only too keen to sell F-15EXs.

5. In my unsourced opinion from reading this thread, Prabowo Subianto’s gang just needs to pocket the commissions from various arms deals (as long as it is not from the US) — to fund his next election. Buying American fighters, missiles and bombs, through FMS means there is no scope for corruption for his gang.

…

7. To send a message of deterrence, the TNI AU needs ISR and be equipped with both the fighter and its missiles; and its instructor pilots and crew chiefs must be trained, to arm the weapons, to enable pilots to fly the relevant profiles to launch these missiles, so that the weapons can be employed correctly. By buying French fighters, Indonesia has to spend on new, great, incomparable and incompatible missiles to their existing F-16C fleet — I have nothing against the Dassault Rafale as a fighter, the SPECTRA integrated electronic warfare suite or French/European weapons (eg. Exocet missile, MBDA’s Meteor, MICA, AASM HAMMER, and SCALP EG missiles).

I saw the Oracle on Twitter's comment this morning, and its as unclear and empty as normal, but today just funnier.

But for some reason he seems to be more anti-F-16 than against F-15.

About the missiles....its just the policy in the last decades to order pathetic small amounts of missiles. For both the Sukhois as the F-16s. So just forget about ordering large quantities of French missiles.

And because we are now talking about the F-16s, here a recent video of a joint exercise. Just to upset the Oracle.

 

[PTamb]

5. In my unsourced opinion from reading this thread, Prabowo Subianto’s gang just needs to pocket the commissions from various arms deals (as long as it is not from the US) — to fund his next election. Buying American fighters, missiles and bombs, through FMS means there is no scope for corruption for his gang.

I think this applies to state side. Our side, there will be room for kickbacks No matter how. Reasoning as previous posts above; Feathers first.

Corruption is in our blood for many decades and bad news is, it’s getting worse. reigns will chance and very little benchmark being taken as standards when it comes to ministries with big budgets.

 

[Ananda]

@Toptob ,@OPSSG and @Sandhi Yudha just open this thread today. Been busy couple of days. Nice lively conversation on TNI-AU that being hold by you guys.

know this might be heresy in the TNI AU, but why keep operating two front line fighter types? I

As I've mention before and some Indonesian members have also doing it, this in my opinion resulted due to thinking of "diversification" of suppliers to reduce geopolitical risk.

I have mention in this thread that during last leg of Soeharto regime, the plan for TNI-AU fleet will consist of Front Line fighters and Attack LCA. During the 80's this made by F-5 and A-4. This should be replace by F-16 and Hawk 200. However after Soeharto fall (and even during Soeharto last years), there's thinking of changing Geopolitical consideration need to diversified front line Fighters assets. Soeharto during Clinton administrations already talking with Russia for Flankers, when he see increasing opposition on US congress for more F-16.

The idea taking hold after Soeharto fall and consequencing embargo from US due to East Timor handling. Is diversification an efficient strategy on maintaining a Fleet ? Off course not. But that what's being hold at this moment.

During SBY era, especially in his second term, the idea come out for DI to work with KAI for new fighter development. This come out with KFX. This KFX supposedly will be the one Fighter that going to replace most TNI-AU current Inventory of Flankers and F-16.

Then Jokowi's administration come, the progress of Indonesian KFX version (IFX) fall into the limbo, while F-5 replace by Su-35 to maintain the policy of diversification. The rest follow as I've mention on my previous post.

Frankly speaking if they manage to consolidate next procurement with Rafale and F-16V only, that's already a good move considering Indonesian political situation. TNI-AU seems have people that now how to prepared efficient fleet. However TNI-AU is not the decision makers, the administration in power plus political forces in parliement are the ones that can shown the move.

What I'm worried are if they got the funding they ask and goes with Rafale and F-15E, while still maintaining operation for F-16 and Flankers. The thinking of F-15E simply because they (MinDef brass) want something in that class. So either get Flankers or get the Eagle. That's why I always back my hope on sanity check from 'Finance' people. In the end the financing authorisation will come from them.

my unsourced opinion from reading this thread, Prabowo Subianto’s gang just needs to pocket the commissions from various arms deals (as long as it is not from the US) — to fund his next election.

My cynicsm thinking are not Prabowo's gang only, but the whole ruling Political Coalitions try to get something from the defense deals. I already shown 'quote' from Jokowi's coordinating minister for security and defense (Mahfud) that talking on how in some aspects the corruption in this 'democratic' era are worse than during Soeharto 'dictactorship' era. If they can being kept on more minimise numbers, then it's already improvement.

This is the 'irony' of democracy on some developing nations. Two of bureacracy that notorius for inefficiency and corupts practices are coming from what western journalism call the 'biggest' democracy in the world (India and Indonesia).

its just the policy in the last decades to order pathetic small amounts of missiles. For both the Sukhois as the F-16s. So just forget about ordering large quantities of French missiles.

Well, they (MinDef) claim that their propose budget already calculate not only life cycle costs on maintaining the assets, but also for Armaments support. Will see how this going to developed

What’s with Alman Helvas’ strong support for the French lobby against TNI AU’s prior declared wishes?

As what that Twitter guy wrote, well I already put in my previous post. French is always worried with the capabilities of US Lobby to cut their lead. They already experience that twice before. Let's see if this time Rafale can hold it's lead or facing same situation as Mirage 2000 and Mirage IIIe before.

Off course he's going to fight for French stuff, it's his bread and butter afterall.

Add:
Perhaps this's the reasons why unlike Leonardo/Fincantieri that already have confidence to put the deal in their official release, Dasault has not put it. As perhaps they do read their lead is still precarious at best.

 

[Ananda]

https://www.facebook.com/376583722506522/posts/1375898782575006

I put this FB page from SAAB Indonesia sites, not to shown or promote/champion SAAB product. However merely to open my post on the selection for specialised ISTAR and AEW airplane. During Soeharto era TNI-AU actually already included as early users for ISR assets in SEA with 737-200 Surveillance. However the progress then become stuck, with only several CN-235 MPA being introduced.

The plan already there, however I'm just worried the prioritisation for AEW and other specialised electronics Airplane being push further and further. One of my 'wishful' thinking on TNI-AU only operating F-16 family and perhaps FA-50 as LCA replacing Hawk 200 more to provide funding for specialised electronics Airplane.

There's talk in media recently on MRTT, perhaps using conversion of couple of Garuda A330-200. There's talk on involvement of Garuda MRO in doing that. However so far no recent talk on AEW and other ISTAR assets. My worries on this talk of 36 Rafale plus 24-36 F-15E/EX simply absorbed most available funding that can be set apart for TNI-AU.

Well that's just my additional ranting and wishing thinking for the brass come to their senses. If they still want Rafale, please drop F-15E dream. Get more F-16, if necessary sold those Flankers. Perhaps Vietnam willing to take them. Use the available fund to improve TNI-AU specialist electronics airplane fleet. This's time around, fancy fighters fleet will just not cutting enough without sufficient electronics assets support. I believe many posters in this forum already shown that. @OPSSG already shown example just above.

TNI already talk much on building network centric defense. The local defense Industry complex are build with LEN as electronics producers as base. Just hoping they are not side tracking on getting the most expensive Fighters, that push electronics assets development further down.

 

[OPSSG]

Making rational choices in fighter procurement — Part 2

8. If the TNI AU are being forced to buy 36 French fighters, they better be given the money to spend to acquire another 250 to 500 French/European missiles, the required specialist pods and at least 8 spare engines (enough spare engines for 4 aircraft, in case of bird strikes or for scheduled engine maintenance rotation). TNI AU fanboys should:

(a) find out about the cost and lead time required for acquiring 75 AASM HAMMER or SCALP EG missiles (and properly compare them to the costs of certifying the same to achieve the effects of 75 AGM-154A/B/Cs). The unit cost of the AASM Hammer is €164,000, per missile (for the French before their mark-up to the TNI AU); and it does not come in the types of warheads and cargo rounds readily available for the American missile; and​

(b) think about military capability in platform terms but at a systems level. At a systems level, the TNI AU is over matched by Taiwan and UAE (as F-16 operators) with AWACS and their inventory of missiles, bombs and pods. For ISR, some of Singapore’s F-16Ds carry Elbit Condor 2 Long Range Oblique Photography system on their centerline station — to give us an up to date and documented picture of any conflict, should a miscalculation occur.​

9. @Ananda, I suspect the version of the Dassault Rafale offered is similar to the India deal; and I hope it eventually wins. If it does win, please don’t get the F-15EX and channel the money into 1 type — don’t be like Qatar.

 

[Arji]

If it does win, please don’t get the F-15EX and channel the money into 1 type — don’t be like Qatar.

We can only hope.

 

[Toptob]

About the missiles....its just the policy in the last decades to order pathetic small amounts of missiles. For both the Sukhois as the F-16s. So just forget about ordering large quantities of French missiles.

The whole problem with corruption is that every successive administration needs to pass on the pork. The result is that a preference develops for multiple smaller deals in stead of one big deal. And don't get me wrong, it's not any different where I'm from. It's just that the elites here are more prone to working together because 1. their positions are more secure/permanent and 2. because if they share the pork of a big project there's a bigger payout for all involved.

 

[swerve]

Those airframes are getting pretty old now. Does it still make sense to upgrade 30 something year old aircraft to that extent? How many times can you zero out those airframes? There has to be a point where fatigue is going to catch up with them.

The original F-16A/Bs are 30+ years old, but AFAIK there are over twice as many ex-USAF F-16C/D. They're not exactly new, but as well as having been built more recently they spent some time in storage, & given the availability of well-tested structural refurbishment, I think they could be worth updating.

 

[OPSSG]

Challenging cognitive dissonance and denial — Part 1

I saw the Oracle on Twitter's comment this morning, and its as unclear and empty as normal, but today just funnier.

But for some reason he seems to be more anti-F-16 than against F-15.

About the missiles....its just the policy in the last decades to order pathetic small amounts of missiles. For both the Sukhois as the F-16s. So just forget about ordering large quantities of French missiles.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1405004538105405445

1. Mike Yeo concisely explains that the Oracle on Twitter's comments to lobby for a fighter type is stupid. The TNI AU needs sufficient depth and knowledge base in ‘aircraft A’ (i.e. F-16Vs), before thinking about introducing ‘aircraft B’ (i.e. F-15EX or Dassault Rafale) — Indonesia get economies of scale by buying more F-16s, as the support infrastructure is there.

2. What the TNI AU wants is F-16Vs (and its AESA radar); and they also need a larger fleet of this single engine fighter as it builds on existing knowledge base.

​

(a) By building that base of knowledge first with more orders of F-16Vs in the 2021/2022 time frame — the TNI AU can be assured of an increase in sortie generation capability, to meet large flights of PLAAF aircraft intruding into Indonesian airspace, as demonstrated by the PLAAF — to the Malaysians (16 aircraft) on 31 May 2021 and to the Taiwanese (28 aircraft) on 15 June 2021.​

​

(b) Indonesia will need to maintain and service 40 engines to keep 36 F-16Vs flying. In contrast, 80 Snecma M88 engines need to be serviced to keep 36 Dassault Rafale flying at reasonable availability numbers. Do the maths — it’s much cheaper to fly F-16Vs.​

​

(c) With 34 F-16s already, the TNI AU has existing F-16 support equipment, spares, and trained pilots and maintenance personnel in place. Recently upgraded F-16A Block 15 aircraft brought mid-life structural enhancements and upgraded avionics to the fleet. In addition to its own F-16s, in times of trouble, the TNI AU can count on the RSAF to either fly with them or allow them to land in Singapore’s Changi Air Base East. The Sep 2017 combined flypast performed by 10 RSAF F-16s and 10 TNI AU F-16s RSAF demonstrates our combined sortie generation capability to interested observers in the South China Sea.​

3. If there is a later interest in a twin engine fighter in 2025 or beyond, Indonesia can at that time consider either F-15EX or Dassault Rafale but not both.

4. In view of the threat presented by the PLA(N) and PLAAF, deciding to buy a twin engine type at this time is an avoidable Indonesian mistake made by Prabowo Subianto’s gang — they are acting against Indonesia’s national interest. My simple recommendation in your country’s interest is — don’t spend more to get less — the correct measure of true military capability is not in performance in ‘air shows’ but in sortie generation.

5. By all means buy the Dassault Rafale in 3 to 5 years from now. I hope that from 2025 onwards, TNI AU shall be properly resourced to maintain and operate the 36 French made fighters — this would include budgeting for spare Snecma M88 engines (at least 8) and 250 to 500 French and European missiles of various types.

 

[ngatimozart]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1405004538105405445

1. Mike Yeo concisely explains that the Oracle on Twitter's comments to lobby for a fighter type is stupid. The TNI AU needs sufficient depth and knowledge base in ‘aircraft A’ (i.e. F-16Vs), before thinking about introducing ‘aircraft B’ (i.e. F-15EX or Dassault Rafale) — Indonesia get economies of scale by buying more F-16s, as the support infrastructure is there.

2. What the TNI AU wants is F-16Vs; and they need a larger fleet of this single engine fighter as it builds on existing knowledge base.

​

(a) By building that base of knowledge first with more orders of F-16Vs in the 2021/2022 time frame — the TNI AU can be assured of an increase in sortie generation capability, to meet large flights of PLAAF aircraft intruding into Indonesian airspace (as demonstrated by the PLAAF to the Malaysians and the Taiwanese).​

​

(b) Indonesia will need to maintain and service 40 engines to keep 36 F-16Vs flying. In contrast, 80 Snecma M88 engines need to be serviced to keep 36 Dassault Rafale flying at reasonable availability numbers. Do the maths — it’s much cheaper to fly F-16Vs.​

​

(c) The Sep 2017 combined flypast performed by 10 RSAF F-16s and 10 TNI AU F-16s RSAF demonstrates our combined sortie generation capability to interested observers in the South China Sea.​

3. If there is a later interest in a twin engine fighter in 2025 or beyond, Indonesia can at that time consider either F-15EX or Dassault Rafale but not both.

4. In view of the threat presented by the PLA(N), deciding to buy a twin engine type at this time is an avoidable Indonesian mistake made by Prabowo Subianto’s gang — they are acting against Indonesia’s national interest. My simple recommendation in your country’s interest is — don’t spend more to get less — the correct measure of true military capability is not in performance in ‘air shows’ but in sortie generation.

Read the Oracle's tweet and replied to him. He won't like it.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

His vague revelations can be entertaining sometimes, but he get more attention than he deserves. All the attention can give his fans the idea that he is indeed an important and smart person, a brilliant defence expert with a supernatural level of knowledge.

Reading his daily posts, i got the feeling that everything he knows is also coming from online open sources. But the problem is that some netizens really believe in the Oracle on Twitter. After all, his predictions and statements which he obsessively post every single day are that vague and unclear, that it is hard to check the correctness.

 

[ngatimozart]

His vague revelations can be entertaining sometimes, but he get more attention than he deserves. All the attention can give his fans the idea that he is indeed an important and smart person, a brilliant defence expert with a supernatural level of knowledge.

Reading his daily posts, i got the feeling that everything he knows is also coming from online open sources. But the problem is that some netizens really believe in the Oracle on Twitter. After all, his predictions and statements which he obsessively post every single day are that vague and unclear, that it is hard to check the correctness.

I was quite direct.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1405355182255489025

 

[Ananda]

there is a later interest in a twin engine fighter in 2025 or beyond, Indonesia can at that time consider either F-15EX or Dassault Rafale but not both.

I'm underlying your comment on the 'both'. That's something that even some local analyst (especially that have interaction with the services) asked that in media. Why 'both' ? Why this fixation on 'double' engine, when operating budget in 'reality' has problem to prepare them effectively.

Few years ago, some Air Force brass 'slip' in saying that operational readiness of Flankers among the lowest in TNI-AU inventory. This's due to maintenance support and operationality cost factor. That time I just laughed when reading in some Indonesian local blogs comment from 'naif' but stubborn millennials fan boys that putting example on Flankers readiness during air show, parade and occasionally photo shoot in practices.

Việt Nam tự sửa chữa tiêm kích Su-30

Nhà máy A32 đã có bước phát triển đột phá khi sửa chữa và nâng cấp hàng loạt chiến đấu cơ, trong đó có cả tiêm kích Su-30NK2.

m.datviet.trithuccuocsong.vn

I put example on this Vietnam MRO capabilities for Flankers. Do TNI-AU or Indonesia has something like this to support Flankers ? No they don't. However Indonesia especially TNI-AU has this capabilities for F-16. That's why in my previous posts I mentioned several times that condition for Vietnam AF and Indonesian AF is something in reverse. Vietnam has capabilities to support Flankers, that's why they're (so far) despites some Vietnam Fan Boys online claim, not shown real interest on F-16 offer from US.

Some of local fanboys and even so call Industry Insiders talk about this time the condition is going to be different, because the budget that being prepared is so substantial enough to support maintaining large twin engine operation.

Well that's about it. Do they really believe that this 'new' budget can really be sustainable ? They are good in paper, but in reality on annual disbursement that's another matter. Even some of supporters of this budget from MinDef talk openly in media, that the reality of defense budget annual disbursement even with the propose scheme, will not much differ on GDP percentage than now. The procurement plan seems big, only because they've been stretches for more than two decades in future.

That's mean the annual availability of budget will not be much different, and that's means the availability of support and maintenance fund 'in real value' (taking consideration of inflation value) will not be different than now 'annualy'. This something that I see many defense enthusiasts in Indonesia seems still not grape the idea.

This means percentage wise, the support structure still calculate with present practices. Perhaps they just add some percentage for adjustment. In simple 'real world's term, the budget being prepared to maintain more 'corolla' as the calculation based on maintainance cost of present 'corolla'.

Unless they have budget to build MRO facilities and capabilities funding to support Rafale, as now they've done with F-16. The claim of MinDef budget will able to procure Rafale, will not automatically translate enough annual fund availability on supporting more expensive assets.

If the defense budget in reality been calculate as 'constant' percentage to GDP (as the MinDef spoke guys told in media), then the capabilities to support more expensive assets will only be available perhaps by end of this decade when the economy already double (if the economics development move as plan).

My simple recommendation in your country’s interest is — don’t spend more to get less — the correct measure of true military capability is not in performance in ‘air shows’ but in sortie generation.

That's what I see from some 'hidden' meaning from TNI-AU occasionally 'slip' of tounge in media when they talk their assets operational capabilities. Hawk 200 for example has been talk by them, as very valuable operational assets due to operational availability. In more direct interpretation they simply say, it's not the best but it's cheap to operate and can provide more constant presences. Constant availability and dependable presences is the most important.

I'm going to put something that I have said before on fleet maintenance. It's not much different on maintaining fleet efficiency and readiness, whether it's military fleet or commercially fleet. Better to operate 80 Corolla then 20 Lexus plus 30 Corolla. Your fleet readiness will not be effective with the latter, thus your operational margin will suffer.

 

[Ananda]

The F-16 Block 72 for Indonesia: The Ideal Bridge to 5th Gen Capabilities

The F-16 Block 72 is the latest version of the F-16 and delivers cutting-edge technology to the Indonesian Air Force (IDAF) in the most advanced F-16 configuration on the market today.

www.lockheedmartin.com

From Lockheed Martin FB page, link to their websites with Indonesian translation directly. Shown LM effort for public image building on their latest effort.

Not much different since it's based on two thing:

1. F-16V is supported by wide range support ecosystem. This create 'economic of scale' support and maintenance. Make it very affordable for operation sustainability,
2. F-16V is the bridge to get in to latest generation F-35. Something that need to operate if you want to have smooth transition toward F-35

Well let see if their efforts result:
1. All F-16V procurement,
2. F-16V and Rafale,
3. F-16V and F-15EX.

Logics only will not going to be the determining factor. More factor on Political ego and budgetary realities.

 

[ChestnutTree]

It's likely going to be the second choice unless Prabowo becomes hampered by the budgetary realities coming in from the Ministry of Finance. What I'm most baffled about however is the amount of cognitive dissonance and denial when it comes to the Rafale procurement. A lot of Indonesians are denying reality and statistical facts while at the same time demanding that whatever is bought produce the best tangible results, which in regards to the current TNI AU inventory, unfortunately does not work with the Rafale.

 

[OPSSG]

Challenging cognitive dissonance and denial — Part 2

What I'm most baffled about however is the amount of cognitive dissonance and denial when it comes to the Rafale procurement. A lot of Indonesians are denying reality and statistical facts while at the same time demanding that whatever is bought produce the best tangible results, which in regards to the current TNI AU inventory, unfortunately does not work with the Rafale.

6. Thank you so much for speaking truth to power. The TNI needs to get the money and financing piece correct (along with the right equipment). I think crawl, walk, run, is the correct sequence for fighter capability development, for any air force. There is no cheat code like in computer games — the TNI AU will need to develop its own tactics and instructional methodology, in a crawl, walk, run manner.

7. The TNI AU’s tiny fighter fleet embodied in 2 F-16s squadrons and a squadron of Flankers can’t just skip needed growth steps and jump to advanced CONOPS without access to the latest jamming tech, or understand how:

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(a) to conduct Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) mission pods and other self protection enablers to support the firing of an anti-radiation missile against an enemy destroyer; and​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1153720548586872833

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(b) to use the JHMCS II helmet for the F-16V Block 70/72 (and not available for the Dassault Rafale).​

8. The RSAF’s three squadrons of F-16s, who are early adopters of using Elbit’s DASH helmet (yesterday’s tech compared to JHMCS II) to cue an off-shoulder Rafael Python-4 missile shot and advanced users of Israeli and American jammer pods. Unlike the RSAF, the TNI AU have only recently understood this importance; and have started using the Veresk self protection jammer pod for it’s Flanker fleet.

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(a) Unfortunately, the Flanker’s huge RCS and the use of dated jammer tech ensure that the TNI AU is over-matched by China’s Shaanxi Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft, which flies to support her fighters. The PLAAF in 2019 announced a new annual training exercise focused on electronic warfare (EW). The exercise joins the existing set of “four major training brands” [四大训练品牌], its annual large scale exercises, each focused on a particular mission set.​

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(b) The new PLAAF EW exercise is called Qingdian [擎电] (which so far lacks a standardized English translation) while the others are called “Red Sword,” “Blue Shield,” “Golden Helmet” and “Golden Dart.” Red Sword is focused on Command and Control, Golden Dart on SEAD, Golden Helmet on air-to-air combat, and Blue Shield on integrated air defenses, the new exercise from 2019 onwards will further enhance EW training.​