Anthony_B_78
Active Member
The discussion sparked by ConcernedNow is an interesting one, and I think it is fair to say there has been some sabre-rattling of late in Australia that does have some people, well, concerned about our defence capabilities. In one respect, I think that's a good thing, because I think we who post here would all agree that there should be more focus in the mainstream political discourse in this country on our national security. Opinion polls have consistently shown that Australians simply don't rate defence highly as a vote decider. That said, we do - and I note the moderators are anxious about this - need to keep some perspective.
In this discussion, others - actual defence professionals unlike myself, I assume - have highlighted some of the challenges that you would have to address if you were going to rapidly expand Australian defence capabilities. Personnel is a big one, likely the biggest. But I would add one that I don't think has been touched on - politics.
Here's one example: You want to buy more Super Hornets and Growlers. Just on the first, the political reaction - this is from media and commentators (e.g. Hugh White), and opposition, independent and even government MPs - would be along the lines of what does that say about the F-35 we're spending a fortune on? There's already a narrative out there that they're a big lemon. So how would you deal with that? I mean, they're not, and they're going to confer a significant capability as it is delivered and matures, but are you going to get that across? Or is the argument going to be we're getting more Super Hornets because we don't trust the F-35?
Then there's the wider political discourse that the government of the day would - by such a significant increase in planned expenditure - be engaging in sabre-rattling itself; that it would be trying to raise tensions. It's already come into such criticism; some of it fair. Put the domestic politics aside too and ask yourself how this would be received among our neighbours?
Going back to the point about keeping things in perspective, it is helpful - arguably critical - to look at the geopolitics and respective military capabilities of those we are talking about as potential foes and allies. To look at the Taiwan invasion scenario, as one cited example, you need to consider what power China can project, what Taiwan has to defend with, and what the US - and potentially others - might bring to the party. Just on one single element on this, does China even have the amphibious shipping to land a sufficient force on mainland Taiwan to secure a foothold for its invasion? I'm admittedly basing my knowledge here on Wikipedia (though. in spite of the criticism, its information is rarely wrong, sometimes more out of date than anything). From what I can see, it's unlikely they could lift 20,000 men at present and they'd not be supported with much armour. For China, as others have said, and I think it's very true, it's a huge risk to try to take Taiwan by force and there's not - at present - the overmatch in forces required to make that a risk worth taking. So what are we worried about?
In this discussion, others - actual defence professionals unlike myself, I assume - have highlighted some of the challenges that you would have to address if you were going to rapidly expand Australian defence capabilities. Personnel is a big one, likely the biggest. But I would add one that I don't think has been touched on - politics.
Here's one example: You want to buy more Super Hornets and Growlers. Just on the first, the political reaction - this is from media and commentators (e.g. Hugh White), and opposition, independent and even government MPs - would be along the lines of what does that say about the F-35 we're spending a fortune on? There's already a narrative out there that they're a big lemon. So how would you deal with that? I mean, they're not, and they're going to confer a significant capability as it is delivered and matures, but are you going to get that across? Or is the argument going to be we're getting more Super Hornets because we don't trust the F-35?
Then there's the wider political discourse that the government of the day would - by such a significant increase in planned expenditure - be engaging in sabre-rattling itself; that it would be trying to raise tensions. It's already come into such criticism; some of it fair. Put the domestic politics aside too and ask yourself how this would be received among our neighbours?
Going back to the point about keeping things in perspective, it is helpful - arguably critical - to look at the geopolitics and respective military capabilities of those we are talking about as potential foes and allies. To look at the Taiwan invasion scenario, as one cited example, you need to consider what power China can project, what Taiwan has to defend with, and what the US - and potentially others - might bring to the party. Just on one single element on this, does China even have the amphibious shipping to land a sufficient force on mainland Taiwan to secure a foothold for its invasion? I'm admittedly basing my knowledge here on Wikipedia (though. in spite of the criticism, its information is rarely wrong, sometimes more out of date than anything). From what I can see, it's unlikely they could lift 20,000 men at present and they'd not be supported with much armour. For China, as others have said, and I think it's very true, it's a huge risk to try to take Taiwan by force and there's not - at present - the overmatch in forces required to make that a risk worth taking. So what are we worried about?
