Hi All,
This is my first post. I served in the Army Reserve in the mid-1980s and have followed with great interest Defence Talk for many years and respect and appreciate the views/opinions/knowledge of the many serving defence professionals and others on this forum. The reason I chose the moniker ConcernedNow is my deep concern about a likely global conflict during the 2020s and the similarities with the 1930s. I have read with great interest Jim Molan’s views that the 4 current threats to global peace are Communist China, Russia, Iran and North Korea and his view that although they do not necessarily have formal alliances between themselves, they are supportive of each other both economically and militarily and they will act opportunistically to achieve their territorial and strategic objectives. As
I class North Korea a vassal state of Communist China and when (I don’t believe it is an if) Communist China moves against Taiwan I strongly suspect Xi Xinping will order North Korea to move against South Korea in order to create a 2 front major war which the United States and Allies will find extremely difficult to combat against. The outcome of that 2 front war would be extremely uncertain. I would also assume Russia and Iran would act opportunistically at that time but Australia will be primarily concerned with the Indo-Pacific. I note the US Indo-Pacific commander earlier this year stated before Congress his assessment that Communist China would be in a position to launch an invasion of Taiwan within 6 years and they are building their military forces and training for that eventuality. I also note that Peter Jennings (ASPI) and Jim Molan in recent months have indicated war is possible (perhaps even likely) in the timeframe of the next 3-5 years.
In light of the above, I note Peter Dutton has asked the Defence Department to identify short term and medium term capability projects/upgrades for the RAN which I fervently hope implies a within 5 year time frame. I assume the recently announced towed array sonar upgrade for the ANZAC class frigates falls within this 5 year timframe. Now to my main questions.
(1) Assuming we are operating within a 5 year timeframe before conflict is upon us what are the projects identified within the 2020 Defence Strategic Update which can be brought forward or even expanded?
(2) Now that Defence expenditure is above the 2% GDP target (I understand it to be 2.09% of GDP in the recently announced 2021/22 Fed Budget) is it possible to assume the Fed Govt no longer has an upper limit on Defence Expenditure and is now operating on a ‘Whatever it takes’ basis?
(3) In light of question (2) is it likely the Fed Govt will bring forward the $4.5-$6.7billion Additional Air Combat Capability in the 2020 DSU slated to start in 2025 (which appears to be far too late) to next years budget? Can that additional air combat capability be the exercising of the option to purchase the additional 28 F35A aircraft to equip an additional air combat squadron? Is It possible for the RAAF to re-equip and re-activate No. 76 Squadron ( as it was up until 1973) at Pearce Airbase north of Perth as an operational air combat squadron utilising the additional F35As with permanent rotating flights through the Curtin and/or Learmonth Bare Bases? I understand 76 squadron is currently a training squadron so another training unit would need to be raised to undertake these duties? I also understand their would be a requirement for large infrastructure works to be undertaken at Pearce Airbase and likely Curtin and Learmonth Bare bases?
(4) I note Jim Molan’s comment when the purchase of the 29 Apache Attack helicopters to replace the Army’s 22 Tiger Attack helicopters was announced that Australia really needs at least 50 Apaches if we are serious about building capability that is sustainable in a peer to peer conflict. In light of this observation I believe Australia really needs more of everything we currently operate and we need it within the next 5 years to achieve sustainability in a peer to peer conflict. As such, is their a possibility we can order additional Super Hornets (24 would be my target to equip a second additional air combat squadron which would also cover additional training requirements)? Is it possible for this second additional Super Hornet squadron to be based at Tindal Air base in NT with associated infrastructure base upgrades?
(5) Is it possible Australia to purchase an additional 12 Growlers (I note the 2021/22 budget has allocated funding to purchase a replacement Growler for the one lost in that accident to maintain fleet of 12) to increase the fleet to 24 within the current 6 squadron?
(5) In light of the more of everything we currently possess and within the next 5 years constraint is it possible we could fund the purchase of 6 additional P8A Poseiden aircraft to take the fleet to 20 aircraft utilising the current squadron in SA? I chose 20 as that was the number of P3c Orions we had in our fleet although I understand some were tasked for duties other than anti-submarine/ anti-surface warship duties?
(6) Is it also possible we could purchase an additional 12-24 MH-60R Romeos to bolster the RANs anti-submarine capabilities and this complements the additional P8A Poseidon’s in point (5)? I understand this would require significant infrastructure works at Nowra Naval Air Station? I understand our 2 LHDs can now operate the Romeo so operating 4-8 Romeos from each LHD would bolster that capability when that capability is required?
I have many more questions but I think that is enough for the moment!
G'day and welcome. To reply to your statements/questions in order.
1- some items may potentially be able to be brought forward but these will be smaller simpler items that can be acquired quickly because they have a low build time frame and are readily available, which items I don't know and won't even try and guess as that is all it will be.
2- while nothing has specifically been stated under the current geopolitical environment I wouldn't put it past them to have the budget 2% as a minimum and willing to spend what ever else as needed.
3- this one partly folds into 4. The 28 options are just that, options. Either they will order more F-35's in either A's or B's or they may upgrade the Shornet if the believe a potentially worthwhile aircraft is around the corner. We could order and potentially gain those aircraft in that time but it will mean the retirement of the Shornet.
4- while we would all want more Apaches it comes to cost but even more importantly manpower specifically trained man power. Going from 22 to 29 is a big increase in percentage terms, nearly 32%. But going from 22 to 50 is over 127% increase which is a big increase in trained personnel. As for a second Shornet squadron I do not see that happening. The RAAF for a long time has maintained circa 100 combat aircraft and If you want the full fleet of 100 35's, and 48 Shornets you are pushing manpower past breaking point. Was around a decade ago we had manpower constraints with our aircraft as we lacked enough pilots for the hornets wanting to increase that by 40,%+ will make it worse.
5a- doubling the growler fleet runs into same issues as 3 & 4. Not counting the fact that the growler is starting to show its age some what and the point of the program was to get the next generation of them.
5b- We had 19 of them, one was apperantly converted to an EP3, others upgraded to AP3C's and 2 of those 18 used for SIGNIT so only 16 for ASW. We have 12 P-8's with 2 on order and upto 7 Tritons. So numbers wise we are well covered
6- this would be a worthwhile investment if again crew can be trained up.
At the end of the day easy enough to buy anything we want, but just comes down to personal to operate and sustain them.
Between all the services and our geopolitical climate a solid argument could be made for increased numbers in everything almost but at that point you could be looking at a personal increase anywhere from 50-100%.
Things we want to potentially speed up would be decision on the 28 F-35 options be acquire them or upgrade the Shornets to block 3, acquire the 12th growler, extra Romeo's, etc but I don't see an increase in actual numbers in any great amount at least in 3-5 years as they have flow on needs, more combat aircraft means more tankers, if deployed abroad also means more cargo aircraft etc etc
