ADF General discussion thread

t68

Well-Known Member
No, it's not. It's a plea to cut out the fantasy fleet stuff and return to the purpose of this forum which is the serious discussion of Defence issues.
No nothing fantasy about wanting the ADF to be as capable as can be within reason, the LHD was built as multi role are you saying the Spanish are wrong to put Harrier on its LHD or the Italians with Trieste. A squadron or so of B gives mission planners more flexibility which does not mean that a squadron will deploy of the LHD but gives options none the less.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Yes the US LHD are larger and can accommodate the aircraft as a permanent establishment, the conops for the ADF is to act unilaterality are as part of a coalition, the ADF LHD's have no aircraft permanently part of the LHD establishment its all about the risk and operational factor for aircraft deployed. Peopled need to start thinking terms of the UK TAG but on a smaller scale the assets will remain RAAF giving the ADF the abilty to forward deploy under different scenarios one option is self deployment using AAR another option is via the LHD

The US declined to have direct support to the ADF in the first few days the Americans expected the ADF to act independently which might be also the case in the future, having the ability to accept different types of aircraft in direct support organically should in my view be a priority, not going to be a good look if the task group was in-transit and had taken a hit because the RAAF could not keep a coverage over the task group, the whole point of a submarine force in limited numbers is to have red force use more logistics to counter, same could be said of a few F35 on a LHD red forces would have to think again. no one is expecting it to function as a fleet carrier but it should have assets available to it to achieve mission success in different levels of threat against it.after all it is a high value target
A few F-35B's on an LHD would not, IMO, have anything resembling the impact that some seem to think it would. I would suggest that given gov't as well as various defence think tanks and defence service/industry members also have not really raised the possibility of F-35B's aboard as being viable, then perhaps advocates for the idea are missing some pieces.

From my POV, a half-dozen F-35B's aboard an LHD could add a bit to the potential CAS/strike capability of an F-35 (and thus the value as a target), but would add little to the defensive capabilities of an LHD, or any task force the LHD was a part of, unless there are other assets which the RAN does not possess, were also present. A half-dozen F-35B's would be hard pressed, and more likely find it impossible, to maintain a persistent 24/7 two-ship CAP around the LHD/task force. Going further, even if a two-ship CAP was airborne, the F-35 is not equipped for the sort of volume air/sea radar search and tracking that proper AEW&C or AWACS aircraft are. This in turn means that in order for embarked F-35B's to provide useful air defence vs. an inbound maritime strike, several specific circumstances would need to fall into place correctly.

These are;
  1. Sufficient F-35B's would need to be embarked to provide a sufficiently sized response package
  2. Enough F-35B's would need to be aloft at the time when the response package was needed
  3. An F-35B or other asset would need to have a sensor of sufficient capability (range/sensitivity, etc.) pointing in the correct direction to detect the inbound strike, while it was still far enough out to be intercepted.
Absent all the above happening, then an inbound maritime strike would have to rely upon the sensors aboard TF ships tasked with providing area air defence, and if the strike package was AShM it would likely arrive before even hotpad F-35B's could launch.

As a side note, both the Spanish and Italian navies have different capabilities and force structures from the RAN, and IMO it is wrong to look at what those navies are doing and assume that the RAN could do is as well, without making some potentially significant changes. For one thing, the Italians have a dedicated carrier in service, in addition to the upcoming LHD (the Italian LHD is larger than a RAN LHD...) so some of the training needs are already being covered, and the LHD could potentially draw upon air support from their carrier. Both Spain and Italy operate heli-bourne AEW capabilities from their ships, so can provide some of the needed sensor footprint which is necessary to really queue a CAP. As for the Spanish LHD... while the design is similar to the RAN LHD, the more I have looked into it, the more I see where changes were made so that the RAN and Spain LHD's are not interchangeable.

Per the RAN website's page on the Canberra-class LHD found here, the LHD in RAN service has flight deck landing space for six medium helicopters or four CH-47 Chinooks. The hangar of the LHD can accommodate up to eight medium helicopters, or a total of 18 if the light vehicle deck is also used.

Per a translation into English for the Spanish Armada's page on the Juan Carlos I LHD found here, the JC I has the capability to operate up to 30 medium and heavy helicopters for amphibious operations, or 10/12 AV-8B+ or F-35B, and a similar number of helicopters, if operating in an aircraft carrier configuration.

What that strongly suggests to me, is that Spain's JC I LHD has a greater capacity for aviation operations than the RAN LHD's do, since the JC I can operate over 50% more helicopters than a Canberra-class could, if the RAN used both the hangar and light vehicle deck.

Without even getting into what the costs would be to achieve some of what has been suggested, or looking at what current ADF capabilities would have to either be given up, or at least for the mission be unavailable, it seems wrong to assume that the RAN ships which are different from the Spanish, have the same specific capabilities.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
No, it's not. It's a plea to cut out the fantasy fleet stuff and return to the purpose of this forum which is the serious discussion of Defence issues.
It's not really like fantasy fleets, as it's a real possibility. t68 points out other countries examples in an earlier post. Remember many platforms have been repurposed over their lifetimes in response to changes of technology and strategic climate. So I think it should be discussed as a real option rather than dismissed as fantasy fleets. The discussion needs to be realistic and include costs and what it actually brings and takes from the ADF. It would be a huge step and given the ways of doing it start at very expensive, to beyond (eg 3rd or 4th dedicated carrier) it really needs a very strong, perhaps overwhelming argument to support it. Has any one seen a realistic costing for any proposals?

I suspect technology, the rule changer, will present new, better and much cheaper option over the decade, if you wish to do 'Naval Aviation' from an LHD.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
It's not really like fantasy fleets, as it's a real possibility. t68 points out other countries examples in an earlier post. Remember many platforms have been repurposed over their lifetimes in response to changes of technology and strategic climate. So I think it should be discussed as a real option rather than dismissed as fantasy fleets. The discussion needs to be realistic and include costs and what it actually brings and takes from the ADF. It would be a huge step and given the ways of doing it start at very expensive, to beyond (eg 3rd or 4th dedicated carrier) it really needs a very strong, perhaps overwhelming argument to support it. Has any one seen a realistic costing for any proposals?

I suspect technology, the rule changer, will present new, better and much cheaper option over the decade, if you wish to do 'Naval Aviation' from an LHD.
I tend to disagree, because it does seem that many are making a number of assumptions about what is possible and to what scale, when there is little to no evidence to support such assumptions. This then exacerbates the problems associated with what the change in warfighting system capabilities would be, if certain platforms and force structures were changed. That fact that people keep dismissing some of the negative impacts which we know would happen, do not help in making things look like anything other than fantasy fleets.

For instance, the ADF has essentially three levels of amphibious response, an ARE, ARU and ARG, though I believe the ARG is more a theoretical formation than a real capability currently. Australia currently only has three amphibs, a pair of LHD's, and a single LSD. With the demands for current training, maintenance and operations, it takes some doing to have both LHD's available at the same time. To try and add a fixed-wing jet capability to the array of tasks that the LHD's can perform, in addition to meeting their obligations as amphibious warfare vessels is, IMO, unrealistic. Consider how hard Bill & Ben were getting flogged, alongside Tobruk. Now people are advocating for a new capability which not only does not directly improve the ability to carry out amphibious operations, but would actually reduce the capacity to an unknown but potentially significant degree, and would add to the training burden?

That does look like fantasy territory to me.
 

alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Good day folks

The 'aircraft carrier' discussion has been curtailed before given it tends to get too emotive ..... and the fact is there is no interest from the government (or ADF as far as I can tell) to put F35s on the LHD's. Unless that changes I can see no reason to have an all out brawl about the issue noting there are reasonable points on both sides.

The forum is to inform so can we all please play nice. I think this discussion needs a rest for a while as there are plenty of other things happening that deserve comment.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
Been a busy week with all the acquisition's by the ADF. Chinooks, Abrams and just noticed the MQ-9B skyguardian. Along with everything else earlier in the year it's a big change up from the past several decades.

Between the P8's, MQ-4C, MQ-9B, MC-55A, E-7A, EA-18G etc I would say we have the best fleet of enablers in the world for our size.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
No nothing fantasy about wanting the ADF to be as capable as can be within reason, the LHD was built as multi role are you saying the Spanish are wrong to put Harrier on its LHD or the Italians with Trieste. A squadron or so of B gives mission planners more flexibility which does not mean that a squadron will deploy of the LHD but gives options none the less.
Every time we have had this discussion you have not known when to back off and let go, even when DEFPROs and / or Moderators have intervened. We accept that you are passionate about the topic, but it's almost like you fixate on this and don't brook any opposition. Most times that we've had to shut down the discussion of this topic has included your involvement. I think that your passionate advocation for the idea has become a tad overpowering when you accuse a senior member of advocating censorship because he criticised your continual rehashing of the same argument which you have repeated ad nauseum.

Maybe it's time for you to step back from this topic and rethink your way through it taking into account all that has been posted and said. Honest reassessment of ideas and views is always good practice and I have had to do it on this topic more than once as new information has come forth. Go back to the questions that I raised in an earlier
post and start from there.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Good day everyone! Let us pause this line of discussion for the next 6 months.
It's a plea to cut out the fantasy fleet stuff and return to the purpose of this forum which is the serious discussion of Defence issues.
Yes, please — with the above gentle reminder by spoz to return to sensible discussions that I also agree with.

You wouldn’t talk about acquiring any capability if it didn’t add to the ADF, conversely despite the apparently generous allocation of funding ADF currently enjoys, such a major undertaking as developing from scratch a new carrier capability for the ADF is way beyond any funding allocation granted to the ADF since HMAS Sydney and Melbourne were carriers…

It isn’t just the platforms, the ships and aircraft, though they would be incredibly expensive. Finding the numbers would be hard, sustaining it would cost a fortune…

And none of this addresses the critical point, if this huge amount of funding, available new ADF positions and sustainment were suddenly available for capability enhancement, is a carrier capability really the best way to employ these resources?

We acquire this carrier for arguments sake and gain an improved fleet air defence capability. At one place, for part of the year…

We still have limited to no ballistic missile defence capability for our fleet and none at all for our deployed forces or homeland. We have only a slightly improved land attack strike capability...

Our entire RAAC capability can barely match a pair of US Armoured Brigade Combat Teams in ALL vehicles, not to even bother mentioning we are about 100 tanks shy of them, even with the recent expansion…

These are just a couple of issues, off the top of my head… Even if this magical pot of money and people existed, how much capability are we prepared to forgoe to acquire it? How much of a lack of capability in other areas, does it offset?
I agree with ADMk2.

Can we give the never ending F-35B carrier discussions for the ADF a rest for the next few months?
 
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Redlands18

Well-Known Member
The Australian Federal Budget was handed down yesterday 11th May. Defence spending continues to increase, 2.1% of GDP, a increase of 4.37% over 20/21. Total budget for 21/22 will be AUD $44.618b (approx US $31b). With the withdrawals from both Iraq and Afghanistan operational funding is falling substantially.
The only announcements are major upgrades to some Base and Trg Areas that had already been announced.
 

aussienscale

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
So just to raise a point of discussion and to get thoughts:

Recent open comment from China of threats of long range missile strikes on Australia, targeting Defence facilities in the North etc got me thinking after reading some recent calls for Guam to have Aegis Ashore systems based in Guam due to similar threats and veiled videos showing Guam being attacked.


Australian Government announcement of missile production capabilities in country and current and soon to start programs as well as matured Australian tech that has been and will be integrated into US systems, should Australia look at developing our own system ?

My thoughts are an Aegis based system, also using CEC, but we can use current and emerging systems as used on the Hobart Class but also the upcoming Hunters, SAAB 9LV Tactical Interface, along with the CEA Ceafar 2 or a new derivative or newer purpose designed radar system.

Such a system would be fully integrated across all three services, interoperable across the services with full queuing from multiple platforms, combined with our early warning "capabilities" this would be a pretty formidable system, and not at a massive cost over and above what we are doing now.

Looking at range and firing arcs of Chinese long range missiles you would not potentially need a lot of sites, layman's eye would suggest possibly 2 in the NT and one far NQ would cover their current strike range and incoming arc from mainland China launches and possibly anything from the SCS, Subi etc.

Thoughts ?
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
While reading through the Portfolio Budget statement(PDF available in above link) i noticed they will be looking at options to replace the EA-18G Growler lost a couple of years ago.
 

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The Australian Federal Budget was handed down yesterday 11th May. Defence spending continues to increase, 2.1% of GDP, a increase of 4.37% over 20/21. Total budget for 21/22 will be AUD $44.618b (approx US $31b). With the withdrawals from both Iraq and Afghanistan operational funding is falling substantially.
The only announcements are major upgrades to some Base and Trg Areas that had already been announced.
There are a few little tidbits scattered throughout if you look closely… For instance sustainment project CN60… Funding design solutions for integration of SM-6, ESSM Block II and ‘possibly’ Tomahawk Block V on Hobart Class DDG’s…
 

Boagrius

Well-Known Member
So just to raise a point of discussion and to get thoughts:

Recent open comment from China of threats of long range missile strikes on Australia, targeting Defence facilities in the North etc got me thinking after reading some recent calls for Guam to have Aegis Ashore systems based in Guam due to similar threats and veiled videos showing Guam being attacked.


Australian Government announcement of missile production capabilities in country and current and soon to start programs as well as matured Australian tech that has been and will be integrated into US systems, should Australia look at developing our own system ?

My thoughts are an Aegis based system, also using CEC, but we can use current and emerging systems as used on the Hobart Class but also the upcoming Hunters, SAAB 9LV Tactical Interface, along with the CEA Ceafar 2 or a new derivative or newer purpose designed radar system.

Such a system would be fully integrated across all three services, interoperable across the services with full queuing from multiple platforms, combined with our early warning "capabilities" this would be a pretty formidable system, and not at a massive cost over and above what we are doing now.

Looking at range and firing arcs of Chinese long range missiles you would not potentially need a lot of sites, layman's eye would suggest possibly 2 in the NT and one far NQ would cover their current strike range and incoming arc from mainland China launches and possibly anything from the SCS, Subi etc.

Thoughts ?
I've posted about our IAMD capability a bit in the past so I will jump in here with my 2c worth. As I understand it the PRC can currently only really reach our northernmost assets (via conventional warheads) with the KD-20 LACM (carried by their H-6 bomber fleet) and DF-26 IRBM (although only if it was deployed on one of their SCS installations AFAIK). As the PLAN's fleet continues to modernise, the threat of CJ-10 derivatives launched from the Type 055 and 052D+ classes will probably grow with it, although it is not clear to me whether the PLAN would ever deploy its surface vessels close enough to mainland Australia to make this a significant threat in wartime.

As far as I can tell, the US Patriot/THAAD combo would probably provide the easiest and most immediate form of defence against these systems. They both represent mature technology that has been developed specifically with these sorts of threats in mind, with integration work between them ongoing. The main weakness I can see is that the PAC3 MSE is a pretty expensive missile, especially in the context of massed LACM attacks. As a consequence, you could couple it with the Skyceptor (David's Sling derivative) as I believe the Poles have done in their Wisla program.

For a more home-grown system, I suppose you could go down the route of a mobile Aegis Ashore, marrying CEA radars to the desired C4/CMS/interface and naval SAMs etc. The challenge there, I suspect, is that you would still be ultimately looking at a terminal phase defence system that largely replicates what Patriot/THAAD now offer. The latter may even be superior in the context of the DF-26 thanks to its HTK rather than blast-frag warhead (found on SM-6).

Now, bear in mind that this is only referring to the threat that exists today. The PLARF already sports the DF-17 (which doesn't have the legs to reach us) but I imagine it's a matter of time until they are fielding an IRBM class weapon featuring an HGV instead of a MaRV. Similarly, the CJ-10 family of LACMs are essentially Tomahawk clones, but I suspect they will inevitably make way for a weapon with a much higher degree of signature reduction (think JASSM-XR) in due course. To my mind, these two likely capabilities may warrant an entirely new family of interceptors. Unfortunately for us, however, the US (and other potential suppliers) are still in the process of defining, developing and delivering them, so the future-proofing problem could be tricky.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
@Boagrius The H-6K apparently is able to air launch the DF-26D carrier killer, so what's to stop them air launching a standard DF-26?

Recently I did a map of below average quality for a topic being discussed in the NZDF thread. It appears that the PRC may be building an airfield on Kanton Island, Kiribati and given that the combat radius of the H-6K is ~1600 nm, I thought it interesting to map the H-6K combat radius ring to see how it affected NZ and Australia. Later I added a second H-6K combat radius ring centred on Momote airfield in Manus PNG for exactly the same reason and posted the result. The resulting map is attached.

Xian H6 CR from Kanton Island Kiribati & Manus.jpg

The question is if the PRC managed to to get access either of those airfields and have the PLAAF and / or the PLANAF operating off them, then how do you defend against the air launched DF-26 IRBM?
 

Boagrius

Well-Known Member
@Boagrius The H-6K apparently is able to air launch the DF-26D carrier killer, so what's to stop them air launching a standard DF-26?

Recently I did a map of below average quality for a topic being discussed in the NZDF thread. It appears that the PRC may be building an airfield on Kanton Island, Kiribati and given that the combat radius of the H-6K is ~1600 nm, I thought it interesting to map the H-6K combat radius ring to see how it affected NZ and Australia. Later I added a second H-6K combat radius ring centred on Momote airfield in Manus PNG for exactly the same reason and posted the result. The resulting map is attached.

View attachment 48223

The question is if the PRC managed to to get access either of those airfields and have the PLAAF and / or the PLANAF operating off them, then how do you defend against the air launched DF-26 IRBM?
I think you may be confusing China's much publicised air launched DF-21 derivative (an MRBM) with an air launched DF-26 (IRBM) that I have never seen any evidence of.

Both the Patriot (via PAC3 MSE) and THAAD systems have been designed and tested against MRBM class weapons, with the latter going as far as IRBM class IIRC. This would place the ALBM squarely in their specified target set. The real complication arises if and when the ALBM comes packaged with an HGV instead of a MaRV, as neither BMD system was designed to deal with that type of target. It seems likely that the U.S will try to keep pace with the threat via further evolutions of Patriot/THAAD like LTAMDS, LTFI (Patriot) and THAAD-ER, but it is still early days as far as new effectors are concerned.

The alternative US based system would be Aegis Ashore, but realistically that only leaves you with SM6 for defeating the weapons, with SM3 as a supplementary ASAT capability (surplus to requirements). I'm not confident in the ability of our ISR apparatus to facilitate a midcourse intercept with SM3 in the scenario above, and it could be rendered redundant entirely by an HGV flying well below the minimum altitude of the SM3's EKV.
 
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Boagrius

Well-Known Member
As an aside, in terms of our capacity to launch a counter-strike against these aircraft, Kirribati would currently be entirely out of our reach. I suspect we would be relying on yet-to-be acquired strike weapons (Tomahawk/hypersonics) on that front. Manus, however, is another story as the RAAF's F35 fleet armed with GBU-39s could reach it with tanker support. They might even be able to get there (in a pinch) without AAR if they were operating out of Scherger. Bear in mind that with one missile per aircraft, the PRC would be hard pressed to generate significant BM salvos without also committing a corresponding number of H-6s and I am not sure how well Momote would accommodate that. Re: Kirribati, I suspect the larger threat might come from the KD-20, as each H-6K can carry 6 of them. It would take a comparatively modest number of aircraft to generate LACM salvos comprised of dozens of weapons, each capable of targeting the entire eastern seaboard.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
The question is if the PRC managed to to get access either of those airfields and have the PLAAF and / or the PLANAF operating off them, then how do you defend against the air launched DF-26 IRBM?
My first thought is that JORN should provide some degree of early warning for an inbound strike on the Australian mainland launched from Momote. Depending on Australian ISR and intelligence resources, it might be possible to carry out a fighter intercept en route and potentially prior to any LACM launches from the H-6K's. Similarly, it might be possible for EW/directed EA from E-7 Wedgetails to overwhelm the electronics of some inbound missiles, given sufficient time to focus RF energy at them.

Another alternative would be for Oz/NZ to dust off the history of Z Special Unit and the WWII Coastwatchers and be prepared to establish a covert presence for intel-gathering and/or commando purposes in the vicinity of either/both airfields.
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
PNG allowing anyone to use any of its facilities for an attack on Australia is unbelievably unlikely. For all their posturing and occasional thoughtlessness, PNG fully understands the vital nature of their relationship with Australia. Sometimes they resent their dependence on us, but they are not going to be stupid enough to seriously endanger it by allowing an attack. Whether their permission would either be sought, or be seen to be needed, might be another question.

On their internal politics, there has always been a level of resentment amongst the nationals as to how much of their economic activity has involved Chinese, particularly as manifested through the very large number of retail businesses run by Chinese, and forest clearing by Chinese owned organisations sometimes, even though that is sometimes run through third countries such as Malaysia. That is something their MPs are constantly aware of.

Coastwatchers were only covert with respect to the Japanese, they depended almost entirely on support from the local populations for their survival. A considerable number of those locals were murdered as a result.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
PNG allowing anyone to use any of its facilities for an attack on Australia is unbelievably unlikely. For all their posturing and occasional thoughtlessness, PNG fully understands the vital nature of their relationship with Australia. Sometimes they resent their dependence on us, but they are not going to be stupid enough to seriously endanger it by allowing an attack. Whether their permission would either be sought, or be seen to be needed, might be another question.

On their internal politics, there has always been a level of resentment amongst the nationals as to how much of their economic activity has involved Chinese, particularly as manifested through the very large number of retail businesses run by Chinese, and forest clearing by Chinese owned organisations sometimes, even though that is sometimes run through third countries such as Malaysia. That is something their MPs are constantly aware of.

Coastwatchers were only covert with respect to the Japanese, they depended almost entirely on support from the local populations for their survival. A considerable number of those locals were murdered as a result.
Are you sure? Things change and never assume that Australia is universally loved by PNG or other Melanesian or Polynesian nations. We in NZ need to be reminded of that too in our dealings with the Island nations. It didn't stop Fiji from accepting Russian military aid. In fact with the Bougainville peace negotiations, the rebels didn't want any Australian involvement at all because Australia was seen as the bad guys. It wasn't until the talks at Burnham Army Camp near Christchurch in NZ that they really accepted Australian involvement. So what happens when Bougainville gains its full independence and the PRC arrive with an open cheque book?
 

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
As an aside, in terms of our capacity to launch a counter-strike against these aircraft, Kirribati would currently be entirely out of our reach. I suspect we would be relying on yet-to-be acquired strike weapons (Tomahawk/hypersonics) on that front. Manus, however, is another story as the RAAF's F35 fleet armed with GBU-39s could reach it with tanker support. They might even be able to get there (in a pinch) without AAR if they were operating out of Scherger. Bear in mind that with one missile per aircraft, the PRC would be hard pressed to generate significant BM salvos without also committing a corresponding number of H-6s and I am not sure how well Momote would accommodate that. Re: Kirribati, I suspect the larger threat might come from the KD-20, as each H-6K can carry 6 of them. It would take a comparatively modest number of aircraft to generate LACM salvos comprised of dozens of weapons, each capable of targeting the entire eastern seaboard.
You're only considering the RAAF's land based reach in countering such a threat. It is well and truly clear the RAN would have to have a role to play if a threat at such range presented itself against us...
 
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