Middle East Defence & Security

CheeZe

Active Member
They had a tactical reason to mislead, as intelligence preparation of the battlefield. The IDF waited till Hamas expended over 1,750 missiles before they were willing to risk the conduct of this massive 40 minute air strike (see point 15 above).
So it is confirmed that they deliberately misled the international press?
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
So it is confirmed that they deliberately misled the international press?
No. There are several possibilities and the IDF is unlikely to confirm either:
1. It has deliberately misled the press.
2. It has mistakenly written a very ambiguous message, and then used it to its advantage.
3. It was all a coincidence.

Of course, the circumstances point to #1 as being the most likely, but it will also likely never be confirmed, or it will be if there is enough internal debate about it.


See IAF’s post above. I understand that Hamas has executed a few suspected local spies, as the attacker knew the exact coordinates of the tunnel network. You can also see some limited images of the collapsed Metro tunnels on social media, that Hamas is trying to control the release of. A classic and well timed conduct of deception operations by IDF.
I am not aware of any executions yet, but these may just be a coincidence. It is part of the intelligence community's job to gather such intel, and the extent of use of actual spies is a lot smaller than what movies depict.
In Operation Protective Edge, a total of 44 alleged collaborators have been executed by Hamas. The wording in the article is ambiguous, so it's impossible to tell just how many were killed.
Abbas has also said (a further?) 120 young men were executed by Hamas during that war when breaking curfew (not sure what curfew there was).
The source is an IDF website:

These deaths were added to the death toll, possibly as civilians killed by the IDF.

These alleged collaborators may not even be related to the current war. They may have been in Hamas's prisons long before that, and the war gave them a solid justification to execute. But that is a guess on my part.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
IDF Attacking the ‘metro’ — Part 2

It's not exactly if international media are sacrosanct either. They aren't exactly known for being accurate with the facts on the ground themselves.
3. Agreed. The press are eager for a ‘scoop’ and the IDF wrote something prone to misinterpretation. If Hamas acts on it, too bad.

So it is confirmed that they deliberately misled the international press?
4. Any discussion on this area would have some speculative elements. Intelligence preparation of the battlefield is tradecraft that no one, especially the IDF wants to clarify.

5. In firing missiles at Israel, Hamas tries to portray itself as protecting the sanctuaries of Islam in Jerusalem. In doing so, it seeks to strengthen its political position in Judea and Samaria against the PLO, which is leading the Palestinian Authority. This is why I believe the fighting will last between 15 to 50 days, instead of ending in the next 2 days. If the IDF ends Operation Guardian of the Walls before significantly degrading the military capability of Hamas, it will embolden and strengthen Hamas. At least 10 people in Israel have also been killed, with two new deaths reported on 15 May 2021 (Sat).
 
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CheeZe

Active Member
TBH what's the problem?
I'm not concerned about the international press. My concern is the truthfulness. It goes off what @Big_Zucchini said earlier about being conservative in their statistical reporting. If they don't catch flak for any of the three possibilities, what's to stop them from continuing this behavior besides faith in their professionalism? You're viewing it as OPSEC while I'm viewing it as a civilian with trust issues.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I'm not concerned about the international press. My concern is the truthfulness. It goes off what @Big_Zucchini said earlier about being conservative in their statistical reporting. If they don't catch flak for any of the three possibilities, what's to stop them from continuing this behavior besides faith in their professionalism? You're viewing it as OPSEC while I'm viewing it as a civilian with trust issues.
In conflict and war every one is economical with the truth. No side ever tells the 'The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth". It is normal to publish what ever you think will give you an an advantage over your opponent and possibly cause your opponent problems and save yourself casualties. As the old saying goes that "The truth is the first casualty of war".
 
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CheeZe

Active Member
Axioms only go so far. If that were the case, we should let "WMDs in Iraq" slide. There has to be an accounting and responsibility taken eventually.

The bombing of the AP's Gaza office is especially troubling given that the IDF claims it was housing Hamas but without providing evidence. The same office tower held Al-Jazeera's offices. Are they solely targeting Hamas or expanding it to pro-Palestinian news outlets? If we go by the logic of truth is the first casualty, then the first thing to do is shoot the journalists who report negative things about you.

Media demand Israel explain destruction of news offices (msn.com)
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I'm not concerned about the international press. My concern is the truthfulness. It goes off what @Big_Zucchini said earlier about being conservative in their statistical reporting. If they don't catch flak for any of the three possibilities, what's to stop them from continuing this behavior besides faith in their professionalism? You're viewing it as OPSEC while I'm viewing it as a civilian with trust issues.
Let's put it that way - did the IDF lie in their initial report?
“IDF air and ground troops are currently attacking in the Gaza Strip.”
Sure it can be interpreted as ground forces INSIDE Gaza, especially considering the sensitive timing.
But there is nothing false in that statement, and we have no proof it was deliberate.
Ground troops are indeed attacking in Gaza. Artillery, special forces, and armor, are firing from outside the strip into it.


The bombing of the AP's Gaza office is especially troubling given that the IDF claims it was housing Hamas but without providing evidence.
The tower was said to be housing various media organizations, I believe it included Hamas owned ones.

But demanding evidence is not something that should be done. It's usually a populistic call by those who have nothing to contribute on a subject (politicians).
That is because the very method in which such intelligence is gathered, is classified.
Even the existence of intel on any target can be helpful to reveal classified methods.

Remember when the US claimed Russia is responsible for downing the MH17 and cited SBIRS as their intel source? Russia demanded evidence. No way in hell are they going to reveal SBIRS footage. At least AFAIK that's highly classified.

From a strategic standpoint, it does make sense to target Hamas media - Hamas has a goal to increase local civilian casualties, and they do pass directives that further that goal.
The IDF communicates with Palestinians by sending them area-wide SMS, pamphlets, TV broadcasts, and other means.
To increase the rate at which the IDF can strike Hamas targets, it must shorten the time it takes to evacuate strike sites, and ensure none remains there. Eliminating Hamas media infrastructure definitely furthers that goal.

Also, high rise buildings are top real estate for military infrastructure like tunnels openings, weapons storage, observation, and C2.
We cannot confirm that such infrastructure was, or wasn't there.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I think it is important to understand IDF Chief Aviv Kohavi's speech in the context of this operation, from early 2021:
The article presents only some highlights, with the relevant bits in the last paragraphs.

He gives an outline of how any future operation will look (future includes the current operation), and talks about the need for a different approach to targeting militants in densely populated areas.
He asserts the need for decisive and lethal firepower, and says civilians will be warned and monitored to the full extent of international law, but that they will not be seen as entirely innocent - if Hamas puts weapons in someone's house, it will be a legitimate target.
On the surface it sounds exactly like previous operations like Protective Edge, but he goes on to prepare not only the IDF for this scenario, but international and government bodies as well.

Also, the IDF, as any other military organization, is still plagued by conservative thought. The IDF has acquired many technologies that allow minimizing collateral damage and civilian casualties in a significant way, and I assume he wants IDF commanders to be confident in their new and expensive technologies.
 

CheeZe

Active Member
The tower was said to be housing various media organizations, I believe it included Hamas owned ones.
Yet the AP and Al-Jazeera are the only media outlets named as operating in that building. I have not seen any reporting or statement in English which says that they were targeting Hamas-owned media outlets. You are the first to provide that information so I am curious to know where you got it from.

But demanding evidence is not something that should be done. It's usually a populistic call by those who have nothing to contribute on a subject (politicians).
That is because the very method in which such intelligence is gathered, is classified.
Even the existence of intel on any target can be helpful to reveal classified methods.
Again, I point you to "WMDs in Iraq" as a possible outcome of blind faith in the military and its "intelligence." In a democracy, the military serves the people of the country. The elected leaders make the decisions on behalf of the people. Either the military is held accountable to civilian authorities or it is not. You seem close to advocating that the military in a democratic nation should operate without civilian oversight. Do I understand your position correctly?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
15 May 2021 (Sat) Update on Operation Guardian of the Walls — No. 1

1. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was “dismayed” by civilian casualties in Gaza and “deeply disturbed” by Israel’s attack on the 11 storey Al-Jala Tower, a building containing international media outlets including that of Associated Press and Al Jazeera, a spokesman said in a statement released on 15 May 2021.

2. Let’s survey various sources:
(a) “We showed [the Americans] the smoking gun proving Hamas worked out of that building,” a source close to Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi said. “I understand they found the explanation satisfactory.”​
(b) A former Obama White House spokesman says he's spoken to people who worked in the Gaza building targeted by an Israeli airstrike yesterday and he's certain there were Hamas assets there, seemingly confirming Israel's claims. Matti Friedman, an AP correspondent in Jerusalem between 2006 and 2011 in Gaza, also said he “had a conversation with a friend who is intimately familiar with military decision-making right now suggests there were indeed Hamas offices there. The army legal advisers who approve these strikes were convinced that the intel and the military logic could be defended, meaning they saw proof. And because hitting press offices is a net negative for Israel, the army seems to have had a target it considered worth the fallout.”​
(c) While there are two sides to every story, I feel it is important to report what AP President and CEO Gary Pruitt said on 15 May 2021:​
“We are shocked and horrified that the Israeli military would target and destroy the building housing AP’s bureau and other news organizations in Gaza. They have long known the location of our bureau and knew journalists were there. We received a warning that the building would be hit.
The Israeli government says the building contained Hamas military intelligence assets. We have called on the Israeli government to put forward the evidence. AP’s bureau has been in this building for 15 years. We have had no indication Hamas was in the building or active in the building. This is something we actively check to the best of our ability. We would never knowingly put our journalists at risk.​
This strike is an incredibly disturbing development. We narrowly avoided a terrible loss of life. A dozen AP journalists and freelancers were inside the building and thankfully we were able to evacuate them in time.​
The world will know less about what is happening in Gaza because of what transpired today.”​

3. Select timeline of significant events:

22:45 - IDF: an IDF fighter jet struck the house of Khaled Manamara, commander of the Al-Farka’in Battalion belonging to the Hamas terror organization, which served as terror infrastructure.
At this time, the IDF continues to strike terror targets in the Gaza Strip.

22:27 - IDF: an IDF aircraft eliminated two Islamic Jihad Surface-to-Surface missile operatives located in Khan Yunis, and in the Meghazi refugee camp.

22:12 - IDF: an IDF fighter jet struck the house of Raed Saad, Chief of Staff of Hamas Special Operations, which served as terror infrastructure.

20:52 - IDF: IDF fighter jets struck the house of Tisar Mevasher, commander of the Hamas 'Karrara' Battalion in Khan Yunis, and the house of Azi Tama'a, commander of the Hamas 'Central Camps' Brigade in Deir al-Balah. Both houses served as military infrastructure for the Hamas terror organization.

Damage to these infrastructures dealt a blow to the military capabilities of the Hamas terror organization

12:09 - IDF: As of 07:00, since the beginning of operation "Guardians of the Walls", approximately 2,300 rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip at Israeli territory, of which approximately 380 failed launches fell in the Gaza Strip — giving, Hamas a 16.5% misfire rate, in my updated 15 May 2021 estimate (my prior 14 May 2021 (Fri) estimate was a misfire rate of 8% to 18%) — the Iron Dome Air Defense System has intercepted approximately 1,000 rockets.

12:03 - IDF: A short while ago, the Iron Dome Air Defense System intercepted an explosive UAV that crossed from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. The tracked the UAV until its interception.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
@CheeZe
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. YOU ARE NOT LEARNING ANYTHING AND REFUSING TO BUDGE FROM A POSITION HARPING ON ABOUT IT, LIKE A DOG WORRYING A BONE, REGARDLESS OF BEING COUNSELLED BY SENIOR MEMBERS TO MOVE ON.

YOU ARE GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF LOOKING LIKE A TROLL. IF ANY OF THE MODERATORS HAVE ANY SUSPICIONS OF YOU BEING A TROLL YOU WILL BE GONE WITHOUT A WARNING. SO DON'T GIVE US REASON TO BE SUSPICIOUS. THE MODERATORS WILL BE WATCHING YOU LIKE A HUNGRY HAWK WATCHES A RABBIT SO YOU BETTER BE ON YOUR BEST BEHAVIOUR.

EDIT: YOU HAVE BEEN PREVENTED FROM POSTING ON THIS THREAD FOR 14 DAYS, PLUS 12 POINTS FOR 6 MONTHS.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
16 May 2021 (Sun) Update on Operation Guardian of the Walls — No. 2

4. American envoy Hady Amr is in Tel Aviv to take part in talks with Israeli, Palestinian and U.N. officials, and reinforce what American diplomats said was the need for a "sustainable calm." Ahead of the delayed U.N. Security Council meeting to be held on 16 May 2021 (Sun), Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, sharing Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) concerns, has called on the U.N. Security Council to seek an early de-escalation of violence between Israel and Gaza’s Hamas rulers. He also blamed the US for the council’s lack of action so far.

(a) UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Tor Wennesland, addressed the ambassadors, in particular, Wennesland said:​
“Since 10 May, according to Israeli official sources, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other militants have launched over 2,900 indiscriminate rockets... Rockets have reached as far as the outskirts of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and its suburbs and Ben Gurion airport...​
In Gaza, the humanitarian and security situation is more dire by the day. In response to the Palestinian militant rocket attacks that began on 10 May, the IDF has conducted over 950 strikes against what it said were militant targets, including weapons factories and depots, tunnel networks, Hamas training facilities, intelligence and security headquarters and offices and homes of senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives...​
The population must repeatedly try to find cover from the strikes absent proper shelters and over 34,000 people have been displaced from their homes. Over 40 UNRWA schools are now open in Gaza as shelters with limited access to water and no access to health care or food and serve for protection purposes only. The dense and closed context of Gaza makes seeking shelter all the more difficult. As a result of the military operations, seven factories, 40 schools and at least four hospitals sustained complete or partial damage...”​
IMO, France and UK are important swing votes within the P5, whose interests increasingly align with that of China, on this issue at the 15 member U.N. Security Council.​
(b) The majority at the U.N. Security Council, including Russia (as a P5 member), Ireland, Kenya, Mexico, Niger, Norway, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Tunisia are expected to vote with China for their preferred language. With only the threat of a US veto holding the line, alone.​

5. "I have never covered air strikes with such intensity, explosions are everywhere in Gaza, there are difficulties in communicating with officials to find out where the strikes are," BBC's Rushdi Abualouf said on Twitter, on 16 May 2021.
(a) After the IDF destroyed the Hanadi Tower, a 13-story building in Gaza City, on 11 May 2021, the military-terrorist wings of both Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) threatened Tel Aviv would be attacked at 21:00. At 20:45 the terrorist organizations fired dozens of rockets at the Tel Aviv and coastal plain region.​
(b) Likewise, Israel’s 15 May 2021 attack on the 11 storey Al-Jala Tower is likely to generate another long Hamas rocket salvo in retaliation. The airstrike that destroyed the Al-Jalaa Tower was just one of many targeting Gaza on Friday and Saturday as part of an IDF offensive against Hamas and the PIJ. And we can be assured that the 2,300 rockets streaking out of Gaza and into Israeli cities were either made, or paid for, in part, by Tehran.​
(c) Israel has destroyed at least 4 multistory buildings since it launched air strikes on the Gaza Strip. Blaming the militants for the conflict. Prime Minister Netanyahu said strikes would continue for "as long as necessary" and everything possible was being done to limit civilian casualties.​
(d) The intensity of attack feels and sounds different for BBC's Rushdi Abualouf from the 2014 round, because to attack the urban bunker network of Hamas, IDF bunker busters (be it 2,000 pound bombs, 1,000 pound bombs, 500 pound bombs or 250 pound or less bombs), have a hard target smart fuse to allow the warhead to go deeper. Kinetic penetrators use their momentum of impact to tunnel through rock, or concrete to the Hamas tunnel entrance. Penetration ability is determined by several factors, including the density of the penetrator material, the hardness of the target material, and the speed at which the penetrator impacts the earth. Gaza is now a proving ground for the IASF to assess the effects.​
(e) Most importantly, Matti Friedman also wrote:​
“...The most relevant example from my own experience as an AP correspondent in Jerusalem between 2006 and 2011 in Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas, and where the AP has a sub-bureau. Running that sub-bureau requires both passive and active cooperation with Hamas. To give one example of many, during the Israel-Hamas war that erupted at the end of 2008, our local Palestinian reporter in Gaza informed the news desk in Jerusalem that Hamas fighters were dressed as civilians and were being counted as civilians in the death toll—a crucial detail. A few hours later, he called again and asked me to strike the detail from the story, which I did personally; someone had clearly spoken to him, and the implication was that he was at risk. (After I published this detail in an essay for Tablet in 2014, the bureau chief at the time confirmed it, adding that a refusal to comply would have put our reporter’s life in danger.)​
From that moment on, more or less, AP’s coverage from Gaza became a quiet collaboration with Hamas. Certain rules were made clear to the local staffers in Gaza, and those of us outside Gaza were warned not to put our Gazan staff at risk. Our coverage shifted accordingly, though we never informed our readers. Hamas military actions were left vague or ignored, while the effects of Israeli actions were reported at length, giving the impression of wanton Israeli aggression, just as Hamas wanted.”​
6. The competition for influence between Iran, or Turkey (on one side) and Saudi Arabia (on the other side), has for decades affected the prospects for peace in the Middle East and OIC’s direction. Turkey and Iran hope to break the recent détente between Israel and some Arab states (namely, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco) via the outrage across the Muslim world at the loss of Palestinian lives.

7. As PIJ official Ramez al-Halabi said on Iraqi TV this week, “We buy our weapons with Iranian money. An important part of our activity is under the supervision of Iranian experts… I am proud to say that the rockets that are used to pound Tel Aviv have an Iranian signature on them.” Social media throughout the Arab world has seen a surge of praise for Iran this week as the only country prepared to stand up to the ‘Zionist entity.’
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
@ngatimozart He has challenged my claim so I hope it's okay I at least answer it.

In this article there is a more clear explanation, but the announcement is still vague, that there are "military intelligence assets" in the building.
I was wrong to think they targeted Hamas media.
The IDF accuses Hamas of using civilians as human shields. And what's better than to use the same civilians who report on it?
This particular claim is something the IDF has already backed up with evidence over many years.

In a democracy, the military serves the people of the country. The elected leaders make the decisions on behalf of the people. Either the military is held accountable to civilian authorities or it is not. You seem close to advocating that the military in a democratic nation should operate without civilian oversight.
Armed forces do have oversight. At least in Israel, it is in regular contact with the High Court of Justice, and it has both self investigating bodies (like the police has units that investigate it), and is accountable to the HCJ.
If and when the IDF has to present evidence in any case, it is done behind closed doors. Judges and people who deal with those things have high security clearance.

1. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was “dismayed” by civilian casualties in Gaza and “deeply disturbed” by Israel’s attack on the 11 storey Al-Jala Tower, a building containing international media outlets including that of Associated Press and Al Jazeera, a spokesman said in a statement released on 15 May 2021.

2. Let’s survey various sources:
(a) “We showed [the Americans] the smoking gun proving Hamas worked out of that building,” a source close to Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi said. “I understand they found the explanation satisfactory.”​
(b) A former Obama White House spokesman says he's spoken to people who worked in the Gaza building targeted by an Israeli airstrike yesterday and he's certain there were Hamas assets there, seemingly confirming Israel's claims. Matti Friedman, an AP correspondent in Jerusalem between 2006 and 2011 in Gaza, also said he “had a conversation with a friend who is intimately familiar with military decision-making right now suggests there were indeed Hamas offices there. The army legal advisers who approve these strikes were convinced that the intel and the military logic could be defended, meaning they saw proof. And because hitting press offices is a net negative for Israel, the army seems to have had a target it considered worth the fallout.”​
(c) While there are two sides to every story, I feel it is important to report what AP President and CEO Gary Pruitt said on 15 May 2021:​
...​

5. ...
(e) Most importantly, Matti Friedman also wrote:​

“...The most relevant example from my own experience as an AP correspondent in Jerusalem between 2006 and 2011 in Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas, and where the AP has a sub-bureau. Running that sub-bureau requires both passive and active cooperation with Hamas. To give one example of many, during the Israel-Hamas war that erupted at the end of 2008, our local Palestinian reporter in Gaza informed the news desk in Jerusalem that Hamas fighters were dressed as civilians and were being counted as civilians in the death toll—a crucial detail. A few hours later, he called again and asked me to strike the detail from the story, which I did personally; someone had clearly spoken to him, and the implication was that he was at risk. (After I published this detail in an essay for Tablet in 2014, the bureau chief at the time confirmed it, adding that a refusal to comply would have put our reporter’s life in danger.)​

From that moment on, more or less, AP’s coverage from Gaza became a quiet collaboration with Hamas. Certain rules were made clear to the local staffers in Gaza, and those of us outside Gaza were warned not to put our Gazan staff at risk. Our coverage shifted accordingly, though we never informed our readers. Hamas military actions were left vague or ignored, while the effects of Israeli actions were reported at length, giving the impression of wanton Israeli aggression, just as Hamas wanted.”​
Someone has probably done his job well. Israel's legitimacy to continue the operation has slightly reduced, which may give Hamas breathing time.
As the IDF knew of AP being there, it must have been something serious Hamas was doing there. And "intelligence assets" is very vague, because it could be so many things.

5. "I have never covered air strikes with such intensity, explosions are everywhere in Gaza, there are difficulties in communicating with officials to find out where the strikes are," BBC's Rushdi Abualouf said on Twitter, on 16 May 2021.

(a) After the IDF destroyed the Hanadi Tower, a 13-story building in Gaza City, on 11 May 2021, the military-terrorist wings of both Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) threatened Tel Aviv would be attacked at 21:00. At 20:45 the terrorist organizations fired dozens of rockets at the Tel Aviv and coastal plain region.​

(b) Likewise, Israel’s 15 May 2021 attack on the 11 storey Al-Jala Tower is likely to generate another long Hamas rocket salvo in retaliation. The airstrike that destroyed the Al-Jalaa Tower was just one of many targeting Gaza on Friday and Saturday as part of an IDF offensive against Hamas and the PIJ. And we can be assured that the 2,300 rockets streaking out of Gaza and into Israeli cities were either made, or paid for, in part, by Tehran.​
...​

6. The competition for influence between Iran, or Turkey (on one side) and Saudi Arabia (on the other side), has for decades affected the prospects for peace in the Middle East and OIC’s direction. Turkey and Iran hope to break the recent détente between Israel and some Arab states (namely, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco) via the outrage across the Muslim world at the loss of Palestinian lives.

7. As PIJ official Ramez al-Halabi said on Iraqi TV this week, “We buy our weapons with Iranian money. An important part of our activity is under the supervision of Iranian experts… I am proud to say that the rockets that are used to pound Tel Aviv have an Iranian signature on them.” Social media throughout the Arab world has seen a surge of praise for Iran this week as the only country prepared to stand up to the ‘Zionist entity.’
Despite the money existing somewhere for the government to draw a new budget from, the political chaos is still preventing the IDF from increasing its budget, and also prevents or delays many acquisition processes.
A sense of paralysis is felt across every branch, and it includes strategic and wartime items.
Iran is a matter of immediate action for Israel, and capabilities need to be on standby.
The lack of a budget really hinders the IDF's ability to act on its contingency plans at peak performance.

The cost of a military operation is really hard to determine with only one number. Do we count military expenditure? Or maybe damage to civilians as well? Or maybe also GDP loss? Insurance claims count?
Operation Protective Edge was said to cost anywhere from a little more than $1 billion dollars, to roughly $12 billion.

This surely plays well into Iran's hands, which may now have some extra room to initiate new projects, new acquisitions, and new construction, while the IDF will be struggling to fund intelligence or sabotage ops or even conventional capabilities.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
16 May 2021 (Sun) Update on Operation Guardian of the Walls — No. 3

8. Select timeline of significant events:

18:50 - IDF: IDF fighter jets struck a Hamas tunnel shaft in the area of Khan Yunis of the southern Gaza Strip. The tunnel contained military equipment and was located adjacent to a kindergarten, a mosque and a hospital. This proves once again how the Hamas terror organization deliberately places its military assets in the heart of densely populated civilian areas. The IDF provided advance warning to civilians in the building in order to allow them sufficient time to evacuate the site. In addition IDF fighter jets struck offices belonging to Hamas Internal Security, which served as terror infrastructure.

15:49 - IDF: An IDF aircraft struck a warehouse containing weapons, located in the house of a Hamas operative in the central Gaza strip. In addition, an IDF aircraft struck a naval weapons warehouse belonging to the Hamas terror organization in the southern Gaza strip.

12:51 - IDF: Following the previous reports regarding a shooting attack, shots were fired towards a civilian vehicle at the Bani Na’im junction, east of Hebron. No injuries were reported. The IDF reinforced its forces and is blocking routes in the area. IDF forces are currently pursuing the suspects.

12:31 - IDF: IDF fighter jets struck military assets in the intelligence headquarters of the Hamas terror organization in the northern Gaza Strip. Hamas intelligence operatives work in the building to provide operational assessments for the terror organization.

The department was located adjacent to a kindergarten, proving once again how the Hamas terror organization deliberately endangers civilians by placing its military assets in the heart of densely populated civilian areas. The IDF takes all possible precautions to avoid harming civilians during its operational activities. Prior to the strike, the IDF provided advance warning to civilians in the building and allowed sufficient time for them to evacuate the site.

This strike significantly harms central terror infrastructure belonging to Hamas.

11:47 - IDF: An IDF fighter jet struck the house of the commander of the Jabalia Battalion in the Hamas terror organization, which served as a terror infrastructure.

11:35 - A report was received regarding a shooting attack at Bani Na'im junction, East of Hebron.

00:02 - IDF: A Palestinian vehicle attempted to run over IDF soldiers at a military checkpoint adjacent to ad-Dhahiriya Junction, southwest of Hebron. An IDF soldier who was at the scene operated to stop the vehicle according to standard operating procedures, including by firing towards it.

9. No surprise that Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia on 15 May 2021 (Sat) called on the U.N. Security Council to intervene and stop Israel's strikes on Gaza, as the conflict between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants raged on.

(a) Malaysia's Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said that in a phone conversation with Indonesia's President Joko Widodo, both leaders agreed that Israel's "despicable actions" must be stopped immediately. The PLO maintains a network of missions and embassies, including in KL and in Jakarta.​

(b) The Malaysian Prime Minister’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang hopes that Muslim countries will proactively support the Palestinian struggle in defending its sovereignty and to oppose the Israeli Zionist regime. In a campaign, led by the Office of the Prime Minister's Special Envoy to the Middle East, the Malaysians aim to work with 40 NGOs to raise RM1 million in funds to be channelled directly to Palestine.​

(c) "Indonesia also proposed that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) immediately hold a special meeting to discuss this issue," said Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi. Earlier on 10 May 2021 (Mon), Indonesian President Joko Widodo condemned the Israeli police violence against Palestinians at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in the holy city of Jerusalem. Widodo emphasized that the expulsion of Palestinian civilians from their homes and the use of force against them at the Al-Aqsa Mosque must not be ignored.​

(d) Saudi Arabia has called for foreign ministers of the world's largest body of Muslim nations to hold a virtual meeting on 16 May 2021 (Sun). The gathering is to discuss Israeli acts of violence against Palestinians and the Israeli police's use of force against protesters at Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. The kingdom will host the virtual summit, gathering ministers of the 57-nation Organization of Islamic Cooperation "to discuss the Israeli aggression in the Palestinian territory," particularly acts of violence in the vicinity of Al-Aqsa Mosque, the body said.​

(e) The nonaligned movement’s Coordinating Bureau normally works as an ambassadorial-level body, based at the U.N. in New York. To avoid broad condemnation by the NAM, a forum of 120 developing world states, Israel will need help from voices from Azerbaijan (as current Chairman of the NAM) and India to put a halt to Saudi, Iranian, Iraqi, Turkish, Pakistani, Indonesian and Malaysian efforts there, to rally international opposition to Israel’s current policies.​

10. European Union foreign ministers will hold urgent video talks, on 18 May 2021 (Next Tuesday) on the escalating fighting between Israel and the Palestinians, the bloc’s foreign policy chief said. Thankfully, within the European Union, Germany has affirmed Israel’s right to self defence, to ensure that the French do not push too hard against Israel.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
We have no problem with your kind reply. I believe that CheeZe just wants to be spoon fed on sources he could have found himself.

In any event, I have also attempted to answer part of it, for you, in points 2(a), 2(b) and 5(e) above.
Thank you.

You dedicated time to explain the Indonesian and Malaysian angle. Do you believe their policies have any weight here? If so, what is it?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
@ngatimozart He has challenged my claim so I hope it's okay I at least answer it.
You answered my challenge in a previous post and I was impressed with the answer.

As to this particular situation OPSSG provided evidence of Hamas's coercion over the news organisations in that particular building, and by extension news organisations within areas under its control.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thinking about my thinking — Part 1

You dedicated time to explain the Indonesian and Malaysian angle. Do you believe their policies have any weight here? If so, what is it?
1. Moderate voices are important ballast in the currency of international diplomacy — without moderate voices, its endless cycles of partisan views. To refresh your memory, I note that Indonesia is:
(i) a G20 member;​
(ii) the leader of ASEAN (and a known moderate that can make a statement to enable the condemnation of the IDF in relation to legality of actions and human rights); and​
(iii) seen as a ‘moderate’ muslim country by the US (that in the 2014 round implied that they understood IDF’s need to defend Israel from rocket attacks). There is no such understanding of IDF’s escalation of violence in May 2021 — which is a significant hardening of a moderate voice in the international arena at many levels.​

2. I am sure IDF prefers to fight on 1 front rather than 2 or 3 fronts (where Lebanon and West Bank also becomes active battlegrounds, no matter how unlikely the scenario).
(a) I suspect that the IDF prefers to keep an operational reserve of Tamir interceptors? The UNIFIL Maritime Task Force (MTF), deployed since October 2006, supports the Lebanese Navy in monitoring its territorial waters, securing the Lebanese coastline and preventing the unauthorized entry of arms or related materiel by sea into Lebanon. The Indonesian Navy helps in this area, to reduce the amount of weapons grade material smuggled into this conflict zone.​
(b) Hezbollah’s rocket and missile inventory is many multiples larger than that of Hamas and PIJ combined — moderate voices help to not only limit the scope of conflict — they help erode any political gains made by Iran in the international arena — and Iran, through its funding of terrors groups, has been seeking to gain at the expense of others.​
(c) We should also keep in mind that the TNI has 1,349 troops deployed on your border with UNIFIL, and the MAF has 831 troops deployed on your border with UNIFIL. ASEAN members, like Brunei (30), Cambodia (180), Malaysia and Indonesia, supply troops to enforce the UNIFIL mandate in peace support that you take for granted.​

3. Palestinian engineers train in Malaysia and Iran but the bomb and missile making tech transfer is mainly from Iran. That can change, especially on tunnel digging tech that the Malaysians have imported from China and depending on the official Malaysian government stance on the status of this conflict, they may decide to help Hamas continue to dig deeper and build more bomb resistant structures — keeping in mind the April 2018 assassination of Fadi Mohammad al-Batsh in Malaysia. Malaysia's then Deputy PM Ahmad Zahid, was quoted by state news agency Bernama, where he said the victim had links to a foreign intelligence organisation and was active in pro-Palestinian non-governmental organisations.

4. You may think the two countries are not a factor, as long as Israel has US support at the U.N. Security Council but from where I stand, this may be short-sighted. Even Singapore’s Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam on 13 May 2021 called for de-escalation and said: “Spare a thought for the ordinary people and children suffering from the terrifying upsurge of conflict over the last week in Israel and Gaza. The conflict strengthens the hand of the hardliners on both sides.”
(a) Given the continued bombing of Gaza, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, on 16 May 2021 (Sun) ended up speaking to an audience of seasoned sceptics. Thomas-Greenfield said:​
"...Secretary Blinken has spoken with senior Israeli, Palestinian, and regional leaders. The United States remains intensively engaged with Israeli, Egyptian, and Qatari officials, as well as the Special Coordinator and his team – all of whom are working to define and establish conditions for a sustainable calm.​
In all these engagements with Israeli officials, the Palestinian Authority, and all regional partners, the United States has made clear that we are prepared to lend our support and good offices should the parties seek a ceasefire, because we believe Israelis and Palestinians equally have a right to live in safety and security. The current violence has deprived both communities of this basic right."​
(b) Biden’s team prefers that they don’t have to do all the heavy diplomatic lifting by themselves, so the Germans have stepped up (at the EU level) and the Indians have stepped up at the NAM level; to buy time for Israel to achieve its goals.​

5. The metro tunnel network is a literal Hamas money pit; a malevolent 15km long underground city built for the sole purpose of terrorism and paid for by Qatari and other Arab aid money, emptying the already depleted coffers of the people of Gaza.

(a) These tunnels also require a great deal of tangible resources from Hamas. A short single attack tunnel can use up to 500 tons of concrete and cement. Due to the execution of a successful IDF deception plan, Hamas and PIJ invested in a tunnel network that was too shallow to protect them from attack.​

(b) The IDF was able to use air power to destroy a significant portion of the metro tunnel network under 40 streets and junctions, without the use of ground troops. Israel's 950 air strikes on Gaza (since 10 May 2021), have hit Hamas hard. But these same air strikes have also hit 7 factories, 40 schools and at least four hospitals in Gaza.​

6. In response to the air campaign, speaking to the U.N., Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki on 16 May 2021 (Sun) called Israeli attacks on occupied territories of Palestine "war crimes" and urged the U.N. Security Council to impose sanctions and arms embargo on Tel Aviv. This partisan approach will gain further traction within EU and at the UN, if not addressed.

7. In a post-pandemic world order:
(a) Qatari views are also growing in importance to various EU member states that export weapons to it, including to UK, Italy and France, who are keen to sell more. For UK, Italy and France, job creation and retention of key defence services relations with Qatar grows in importance, from 2021 onwards. Keeping in mind that Qatar is no friend of Israel. Their funding for Gaza and its propaganda mouth piece, Al Jazeera’s uneven reporting is gaining traction, as the preferred lens to see the conflict, in moderate Muslim countries.​
(b) Some European countries, especially France and Italy (due to commercial interests), favour Obama’s prior approach to Iran. This is where there is some European pressure to seek a new detente with Iran, that Biden has to listen to. I believe the Democrats will start in 2022 onwards, to seek a path back to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known commonly as the Obama Iran nuclear deal.​
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thinking about my thinking — Part 2
You answered my challenge in a previous post and I was impressed with the answer.
8. It’s good to have a two sided discussion. To see it from an Israeli perspective is a good start but it is also important for me not to “go native” nor buy into their internal logic for Operation Guardian of the Walls; because years from now, it might be seen as the war where both Hamas and IDF lost. Sun Tzu uses the metaphor of water flowing through the path of least resistance to describe the optimal course of action.

9. The reason I say this because I suspect both are fighting tactically but without adequate strategic reasoning to guide them — let me share my thinking process (which admittedly may not be correct but I will take a risk to say it anyway).
(a) Until a few days ago the “change bloc” was four Knesset votes short of the 61 that are needed by the Yesh Atid Party to accomplish change. The far right had itself been courted and legitimised by Netanyahu, as he sought allies in his efforts to hang on to power. Before this war, we see Netanyahu's right-wing bloc almost lose power due to their failed policies for Israel, the details of which I don’t want to go into here. It’s all about staying in power and nothing about what’s good for the state. As many know, Israel's electoral system, is a form of proportional representation, that makes it almost impossible for a single party to win an election outright — which should mean that voices of the minority are important — but that is not proving to be the case. Instead, hardliners seem to have hijacked Israeli public discourse.​
(b) What is also unusual is outbreak of violence in Israel, with groups of Jewish and Palestinian citizens fighting in the streets and torching vehicles and buildings. The brutal clashes between Jews and Israeli-Arabs, who make up 20% of the population of the country, have brought the conflict inside the borders of Israel itself. From a strategic standpoint a divided Israel is a weaker Israel. Civil unrest between Jews and Arabs in Israel dealt a strong blow to efforts by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's opponents to unseat him. This war has ensured that Netanyahu, Likud and the right wing will stay in power, and this will prevent the healing and coming together of Jewish and Palestinian citizens within the state, after Operation Guardian of the Walls.​
(c) A country should not be tearing itself apart, but what I see is both within Israel and in the West Bank, Palestinian protesters have clashed with Israeli forces. Many Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem took part in a general strike to protest at the Israeli bombing of Gaza. Areas inside Israel with an Israeli Arab majority, such as Haifa, also joined the strike. From a military perspective, the IDF is far superior in capability over any insurgent group but if at the home front, the fabric of society is being torn apart, it is a form of defeat.​

10. From my vantage point, PIJ and Hamas are natural enemies but in picking this fight with the IDF, Hamas has been disproportionally hammered by Israeli bunker busters (without the need to use IDF ground troops to invade). Israel's nine-day bombardment of Gaza has "set Hamas back by many years", Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said.
(a) Without a ground invasion, Hamas can’t be seen as fighting for Gaza, rather, it is seen as getting its civilians hammered — due to the fact that Gaza militants fired some 3,300 rockets at Israel (as at 15:00 GMT on 18 May 2021). In the longer run, Hamas has a street credibility problem as it struggles to rule Gaza.​
(b) All the while, Iran’s favoured proxy in Gaza, PIJ benefits THE MOST in the post war environment — if the No. 1 in Gaza has become weaker, by default the No. 2 in Gaza (i.e. PIJ), gains — demonstrating the power of the path of least resistance.​
(c) Just after Israel re-opened the Erez Crossing from Israel into Gaza to allow the entry of civilian aid, a mortar shell was fired at the crossing from Gaza, lightly injuring an IDF soldier — which is a set back for any ceasefire negotiation attempt being conducted by Egypt.​
(d) A senior Hamas official, Moussa Abu Marzouk, was quoted by the New York Times as saying that the Palestinian militant group has been seeking a cease-fire in Gaza. However, he says, "Israel demanded that Hamas unilaterally hold its fire first for 2-3 hours before Israel decides if it will do the same." Abu Marzouk says Hamas will agree to a ceasefire that is "simultaneous and mutual."​
(e) The UAE has reportedly threatened Hamas it will cease all infrastructure and economic investments in the Gaza Strip if it fails to come to a ceasefire agreement with Jerusalem in the near future. “We are still ready and willing to promote civil projects in cooperation with the Palestinian Authority and under UN management [in Gaza], but our necessary condition is calm,” an unnamed UAE official told the Israeli financial daily.​

As to this particular situation OPSSG provided evidence of Hamas's coercion over the news organisations in that particular building, and by extension news organisations within areas under its control.
11. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel has given the US information about its bombing of the Al-Jala Tower housing the Associated Press and other media outlets. “We did seek further information from Israel on this question,” Blinken said at a joint briefing with Iceland’s foreign minister in Reykjavik. “It’s my understanding that we’ve received some further information through intelligence channels, and it’s not something I can comment on,” he said.
(a) Destroying Al-Jala Tower makes it seem as if the international media is an IDF target. This is not the path of least resistance according to Sun Tze — in terms of optics during military operations, it’s seen by me as an own goal — I also do not fault the Associated Press for bending to intimidation by Hamas, as this is to be expected.​
(b) The progressives in Biden’s democratic base are ‘allies’ with certain segments of the press and human rights organisations; and the IDF will reap what it sows. In prior posts, I have written at length why I think things are going to be difficult for Israel under Biden.​
(c) Responding to rising humanitarian needs brought about by the escalation of conflict in the Gaza Strip, the World Food Programme on 17 May 2021, began providing emergency assistance to support Palestinian families, amid fears of low food stocks and rising prices. IMO, Biden’s democratic base particularly sensitive to human rights issues and is not in the business of giving out blank cheques to support Israel. Their support is always conditional.​

12. Select timeline of significant events on 18 May 2021:

19:25 - IDF: IDF fighter jets struck command and control centers located within the residences of three additional Hamas commanders in the Gaza Strip: the residence of the Deputy Commander of the Hamas Northern Brigade in Gaza City, Rafa Salman, the residence of a company commander in a Hamas reinforcement battalion in Khan Yunis and the residence of an additional company commander in a Hamas reinforcement battalion in Daraj Tufah.

19:08 - IDF: IDF fighter jets struck terror infrastructure located in three operational apartments. The operational apartments belonged to Hamas operatives, including those of Ja'adi Cha'alah, a company commander in the Hamas 'Al-Farqin' Battalion, Jamal Alaeda, a company commander in the Hamas "Northern" Battalion, and Muhammad Shuaf, a company commander in the Hamas 'Nuhba' Battalion. The various terror infrastructures were used by the Hamas terror organization for military purposes, while some of them were also used in previous operations.

17:27 - IDF: A short while ago, during a violent riot at the Judea and Samaria Square, in the Ramallah district, a number of rioters fired extensively at IDF troops who were adjacent to the scene, as well as injuring 2 IDF troops in the legs. The troops and additional soldiers responded with fire towards the sources of fire.

14:19 - IDF: Following a COGAT announcement regarding a mortar shell that was fired at the Erez Crossing during the entry of trucks carrying civilian aid to the Gaza Strip, a short while ago an IDF soldier was lightly injured by mortar shrapnel adjacent to the crossing. The injured soldier has been evacuated to a hospital for further medical treatment.

13:20 - IDF: Since 08:00 this morning, IDF fighter jets and aircraft identified and struck 9 underground and above-ground rocket launch sites in the Gaza Strip.
 
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