Thinking about my thinking — Part 2
You answered my challenge in a previous post and I was impressed with the answer.
8. It’s good to have a two sided discussion. To see it from an Israeli perspective is a good start but it is also important for me not to “go native” nor buy into their internal logic for Operation Guardian of the Walls; because years from now, it might be seen as the war where both Hamas and IDF lost. Sun Tzu uses the metaphor of water flowing through the path of least resistance to describe the optimal course of action.
9. The reason I say this because I suspect both are fighting tactically but without adequate strategic reasoning to guide them — let me share my thinking process (which admittedly may not be correct but I will take a risk to say it anyway).
(a) Until a few days ago the “change bloc” was four Knesset votes short of the 61 that are needed by the Yesh Atid Party to accomplish change. The far right had itself been courted and legitimised by Netanyahu, as he sought allies in his efforts to hang on to power. Before this war, we see Netanyahu's right-wing bloc almost lose power due to their failed policies for Israel, the details of which I don’t want to go into here. It’s all about staying in power and nothing about what’s good for the state. As many know, Israel's electoral system, is a form of proportional representation, that makes it almost impossible for a single party to win an election outright — which should mean that voices of the minority are important — but that is not proving to be the case. Instead, hardliners seem to have hijacked Israeli public discourse.
(b) What is also unusual is outbreak of violence in Israel, with groups of Jewish and Palestinian citizens fighting in the streets and torching vehicles and buildings. The brutal clashes between Jews and Israeli-Arabs, who make up 20% of the population of the country, have brought the conflict inside the borders of Israel itself. From a strategic standpoint a divided Israel is a weaker Israel. Civil unrest between Jews and Arabs in Israel dealt a strong blow to efforts by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's opponents to unseat him. This war has ensured that Netanyahu, Likud and the right wing will stay in power, and this will prevent the healing and coming together of Jewish and Palestinian citizens within the state, after Operation Guardian of the Walls.
(c) A country should not be tearing itself apart, but what I see is both within Israel and in the West Bank, Palestinian protesters have clashed with Israeli forces. Many Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem took part in a general strike to protest at the Israeli bombing of Gaza. Areas inside Israel with an Israeli Arab majority, such as Haifa, also joined the strike. From a military perspective, the IDF is far superior in capability over any insurgent group but if at the home front, the fabric of society is being torn apart, it is a form of defeat.
10. From my vantage point, PIJ and Hamas are natural enemies but in picking this fight with the IDF, Hamas has been disproportionally hammered by Israeli bunker busters (without the need to use IDF ground troops to invade). Israel's nine-day bombardment of Gaza has "set Hamas back by many years", Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said.
(a) Without a ground invasion, Hamas can’t be seen as fighting for Gaza, rather, it is seen as getting its civilians hammered — due to the fact that Gaza militants fired some 3,300 rockets at Israel (as at 15:00 GMT on 18 May 2021). In the longer run, Hamas has a street credibility problem as it struggles to rule Gaza.
(b) All the while, Iran’s favoured proxy in Gaza, PIJ benefits THE MOST in the post war environment — if the No. 1 in Gaza has become weaker, by default the No. 2 in Gaza (i.e. PIJ), gains — demonstrating the power of the path of least resistance.
(c) Just after Israel re-opened the Erez Crossing from Israel into Gaza to allow the entry of civilian aid, a mortar shell was fired at the crossing from Gaza, lightly injuring an IDF soldier — which is a set back for any ceasefire negotiation attempt being conducted by Egypt.
(d) A senior Hamas official, Moussa Abu Marzouk, was quoted by the New York Times as saying that the Palestinian militant group has been seeking a cease-fire in Gaza. However, he says, "Israel demanded that Hamas unilaterally hold its fire first for 2-3 hours before Israel decides if it will do the same." Abu Marzouk says Hamas will agree to a ceasefire that is "simultaneous and mutual."
(e) The UAE has reportedly threatened Hamas it will cease all infrastructure and economic investments in the Gaza Strip if it fails to come to a ceasefire agreement with Jerusalem in the near future. “We are still ready and willing to promote civil projects in cooperation with the Palestinian Authority and under UN management [in Gaza], but our necessary condition is calm,” an unnamed UAE official told the Israeli financial daily.
As to this particular situation OPSSG provided evidence of Hamas's coercion over the news organisations in that particular building, and by extension news organisations within areas under its control.
11. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel has given the US information about its bombing of the Al-Jala Tower housing the Associated Press and other media outlets. “We did seek further information from Israel on this question,” Blinken said at a joint briefing with Iceland’s foreign minister in Reykjavik. “It’s my understanding that we’ve received some further information through intelligence channels, and it’s not something I can comment on,” he said.
(a) Destroying Al-Jala Tower makes it seem as if the international media is an IDF target. This is not the path of least resistance according to Sun Tze — in terms of optics during military operations, it’s seen by me as an own goal — I also do not fault the Associated Press for bending to intimidation by Hamas, as this is to be expected.
(b) The progressives in Biden’s democratic base are ‘allies’ with certain segments of the press and human rights organisations; and the IDF will reap what it sows. In prior posts, I have written at length why I think things are going to be difficult for Israel under Biden.
(c) Responding to rising humanitarian needs brought about by the escalation of conflict in the Gaza Strip, the World Food Programme on 17 May 2021, began providing emergency assistance to support Palestinian families, amid fears of low food stocks and rising prices. IMO, Biden’s democratic base particularly sensitive to human rights issues and is not in the business of giving out blank cheques to support Israel. Their support is always conditional.
12. Select timeline of significant events on 18 May 2021:
19:25 - IDF: IDF fighter jets struck command and control centers located within the residences of three additional Hamas commanders in the Gaza Strip: the residence of the Deputy Commander of the Hamas Northern Brigade in Gaza City, Rafa Salman, the residence of a company commander in a Hamas reinforcement battalion in Khan Yunis and the residence of an additional company commander in a Hamas reinforcement battalion in Daraj Tufah.
19:08 - IDF
: IDF fighter jets struck terror infrastructure located in three operational apartments. The operational apartments belonged to Hamas operatives, including those of Ja'adi Cha'alah, a company commander in the Hamas 'Al-Farqin' Battalion, Jamal Alaeda, a company commander in the Hamas "Northern" Battalion, and Muhammad Shuaf, a company commander in the Hamas 'Nuhba' Battalion. The various terror infrastructures were used by the Hamas terror organization for military purposes, while some of them were also used in previous operations.
17:27 - IDF: A short while ago, during a violent riot at the Judea and Samaria Square, in the Ramallah district, a number of rioters fired extensively at IDF troops who were adjacent to the scene, as well as injuring 2 IDF troops in the legs. The troops and additional soldiers responded with fire towards the sources of fire.
14:19 - IDF: Following a COGAT announcement regarding a mortar shell that was fired at the Erez Crossing during the entry of trucks carrying civilian aid to the Gaza Strip, a short while ago an IDF soldier was lightly injured by mortar shrapnel adjacent to the crossing. The injured soldier has been evacuated to a hospital for further medical treatment.
13:20 - IDF: Since 08:00 this morning, IDF fighter jets and aircraft identified and struck 9 underground and above-ground rocket launch sites in the Gaza Strip.