The Situation With Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

[OPSSG]

1. For a while after Iran picked a fight with the US Navy by shooting down a RQ-4A Global Hawk in 2019, it seemed that they got away with it. But karma is a bitch. In May 2020, the Iranians fired a missile and damaged the Konarak (a Hendijan-class support ship), their own naval ship in an epic failure of range control.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1292706193274699778

2. Next the IRG Corps sinks an model of a US aircraft carrier in a way that almost blocks their own harbour. It is an hazard to navigation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294301755694555136

3. As Feanor notes, the US finally decided to take action against Iran to retaliate against their actions against a merchant vessel in international waters off UAE coast — by using accurate intelligence, the US Navy targets and seizes Iranian petrol in 4 ship-to-ship transfers. This has strangled Iran’s secret attempts at busting sanctions. See: US Has Seized Four Oil Tankers Loaded With Iranian Fuel In Violation Of Sanctions (13 Aug 2020). The economic and political situation in Iran is not stable, and the US is exploiting this advantage to pressure the regime.

 

[ngatimozart]

The US was soundly defeated in the UNSC (UN Security Council) in its attempt to fully restore UN sanctions against Iran. It was supported by only one country , and there were 11 abstentions including France and the UK. It may attempt to to impose sanctions via a snapback in the original agreement with Iran, but since it unilaterally withdrew 2 years ago, both Russia and the PRC state that it no longer is able to trigger the snapback clause. On the face of it I think that they are right and the White House has made a real diplomatic tactical own goal here.

This means that Iran will be able to acquire conventional weapons without hindrance and I suspect that they will turn to the Russians and the Chinese for their weapons and sensors etc. If necessary they could barter oil for weapons with the Chinese, and pay for their Russian weapons with gold.

UN Security Council rejects US bid to extend Iran arms embargo

Crisis looms as UNSC overwhelmingly rejects US resolution to indefinitely extend an arms embargo on Iran.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[ngatimozart]

If there were strong indications/information that this tanker transported drugs or other illegal stuff, than its understandable. But if not, then its maybe unnecessary to inspect ships in this spectacular way.

Iranian forces overtake and board civilian tanker in Gulf of Oman - Naval News

Coalition Task Force (CTF) Sentinel, the operational arm of the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), monitored an incident involving Iranian forces who boarded a tanker in the international waters of the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, Aug 12.

www.navalnews.com

More on this. It turns out that the four Iranian fuel tankers that the US has seized belong to the IRCG and carried approx 1.1 billion barrels of petrol. So the Iranians boarded the Wila looking for their missing petrol

Iranians Raided Tanker Off UAE Searching for 1M Barrels of Petroleum Seized by U.S. - USNI News

Iranian forces were looking for 1.1 million barrels in petroleum products seized by the U.S. Justice Department when they took over a merchant tanker in the Gulf of Oman earlier this week, DoJ officials confirmed to USNI News. On Friday, the DoJ announced the U.S. had seized more than 1.1...

news.usni.org

 

[swerve]

The US was soundly defeated in the UNSC (UN Security Council) in its attempt to fully restore UN sanctions against Iran. It was supported by only one country , and there were 11 abstentions including France and the UK. It may attempt to to impose sanctions via a snapback in the original agreement with Iran, but since it unilaterally withdrew 2 years ago, both Russia and the PRC state that it no longer is able to trigger the snapback clause. On the face of it I think that they are right and the White House has made a real diplomatic tactical own goal here.

This means that Iran will be able to acquire conventional weapons without hindrance and I suspect that they will turn to the Russians and the Chinese for their weapons and sensors etc. If necessary they could barter oil for weapons with the Chinese, and pay for their Russian weapons with gold.

UN Security Council rejects US bid to extend Iran arms embargo

Crisis looms as UNSC overwhelmingly rejects US resolution to indefinitely extend an arms embargo on Iran.

www.aljazeera.com

Well, maybe President Biden will try to reinstate the agreement.

 

[John Fedup]

Well, maybe President Biden will try to reinstate the agreement.

Maybe, but their is a long list of other stuff he would need to attend to first, assuming the November election provides a win that is uncontested.

 

[Feanor]

Well, maybe President Biden will try to reinstate the agreement.

The original sanctions against Iran and deals on Irans nuclear program were completed in a very different international climate. UN sanctions would require Russian and Chiense cooperation, and any hint of improving relations with Russia from Trump seems to cause minor volcanic eruptions (I won't even open the door on China, we have a whole separate thread for that). Im not sure Biden is willing or able to change that. I suspect the sanctions against Iran are gone and won't return. The nuclear deal is another matter entirely, of course.

 

[Ananda]

maybe President Biden will try to reinstate the agreement.

Despite all the pollings that shown Biden lead significant on Trump, I'm not so sure of Democrats will win yet on the very polarized American constituents.
Not trying to go to politics, but my contacts in US Banks all said that Biden choice of running mates being cheered by Republican as it's going to energized their constituents going to voting pools. After all Trump always behind Mdm Clinton in the opinion pollings.

The Real Reason Turkey Is Mad at Joe Biden

The Democratic candidate’s longstanding sympathy for the Kurds is likely what’s causing Ankara anxiety.

www.bloomberg.com

Biden will bring another aspects of US policies to middle East just the article above shown. He's pro Kurdish move will bring Iraq, Turkey and Iran potentially to same camp. This will terrified all Gulf Kingdoms for example.

Point that I'm making, Biden Presidency not automatically will be resulted with more 'acceptable' Middle East policies from Washington. Historically the Democrats are more 'ideological' on pushing their agenda in foreign policy, compared to Republican that tends more to 'acceptable' if it's benefits US 'interest'

 

[ngatimozart]

Despite all the pollings that shown Biden lead significant on Trump, I'm not so sure of Democrats will win yet on the very polarized American constituents.
Not trying to go to politics, but my contacts in US Banks all said that Biden choice of running mates being cheered by Republican as it's going to energized their constituents going to voting pools. After all Trump always behind Mdm Clinton in the opinion pollings.

The Real Reason Turkey Is Mad at Joe Biden

The Democratic candidate’s longstanding sympathy for the Kurds is likely what’s causing Ankara anxiety.

www.bloomberg.com

Biden will bring another aspects of US policies to middle East just the article above shown. He's pro Kurdish move will bring Iraq, Turkey and Iran potentially to same camp. This will terrified all Gulf Kingdoms for example.

Point that I'm making, Biden Presidency not automatically will be resulted with more 'acceptable' Middle East policies from Washington. Historically the Democrats are more 'ideological' on pushing their agenda in foreign policy, compared to Republican that tends more to 'acceptable' if it's benefits US 'interest'

We have to be careful here because Preceptor gets all wound up when US politics get discussed on here. Can't understand why myself, but he's pretty grumpier than usual about it.

In the 2016 election the polls had Clinton ahead of Trump by 1.5 - 4% on average. However in the only poll that counted Clinton may have won the popular vote, but she didn't win the vote that really counted: the electoral college votes. That's the bespoke methodology of the US Presidential electoral system.

If Biden wins this year, there will be changes to various policies, however I doubt if the US will revert to the policy settings of pre November 2016. To much has changed and the US is no longer the country it was 4 years ago. It has changed for the worse and it's debatable whether or not it will be possible for it to fully recover the lost ground and trust. Secondly, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown a large monkey wrench into the works. As we all know the pandemic is a catastrophic economic crisis on par with the 1930s Great Depression, that will have global impacts. Thirdly, there are geopolitical and geostrategic threats to the rules based international order and the US hasn't helped matters by it's unilateral withdrawal from certain Treaties and Agreements that have had international consequences that are detrimental both to US interests and to global stability. Fourthly, the US has lost respect and is been seen as less trustworthy and reliable by friends allies because of rhetoric and decisions coming out of the White House.

Next November it would be advisable to treat the poll results with a great degree of caution because of the inherent inaccuracies. Also the pandemic is going to have an impact upon the election itself, especially upon the voter turnout due to lockdowns and other health based spatial restrictions. If postal voting does become a major component of the election, then it will be some time after election day before the results are known and released. Meanwhile the conspiracy theorists will be going flat out.

 

[Vivendi]

Trump has repeatedly indicated that he might challenge the election results unless he is winning. This would imply a prolonged process involving mud slinging, laywers, and a lot of noise before the winner is officially declared (best case scenario). Worst case scenario is unlikely but would be horrifying to the US and allies, and I won't even try to describe it.

Given all the uncertainties related to the US political situation, perhaps Iran will wait and see how things play out. Being great chess players, perhaps they are mapping out various scenarios of the outcome of the US elections and plan accordingly. Some of the scenarios would open up windows of opportunities for Iran, which I am sure will take advantage of this.

 

[Ananda]

have to be careful here because Preceptor gets all wound up when US politics get discussed on here. Can't understand why myself, but he's pretty grumpier than usual about it.

Understand @ngatimozart my post is not aim to talk about US politics, but more to put 'cautions' on expectations that if Biden win then US Global politics will be more manageable.

Perhaps cause I come from Financial Industry. Many people in our Industry in fact feels that on the contrary to media or politicall analysts, Trump actually is predictable.
All he cares is how to reduce US trade deficit, provide more access to US products in China or any countries that have trade surplus with US, and for US allies pay more Defence 'burden' so he can reduce US Armed Forces operational costs.

In fact many Market Analysts feel that if not due to COVID 19, all this trade war with China already can be handle more faster. Trump actually provide more room to negotiate, and it just the way he open negotiations always in more aggressive stand with more bravado perhaps mimicking his behaviors in business world.

So just like you say, don't expect much on Biden if he's winning next election. For me personally as non American, I will be more nervous with Biden compared to Trump under current Geopolitical situation. He's seems more driven by his ideology and believe compared to Trump which in the end more driven by business goals.

As potential November elections will be contested, I think it will depend on how close it is. Considering how polarized US Constituents right now I think whoever win the others have potential will contested the result. Still US election systems so far shown the contested process will not be prolonged.

Hope this's not translate as talking much on US Politics, but more on Iran/Middle East Geopolitical situation after US election. I understand why US moderators like Preceptor does not want discussion on US Politics in this forum especially under current situation.
Looking to other forums, talking US Politics can attract some combative 'guys' from on line 'junkyard' that behaving well like 'junk'

 

[ngatimozart]

Trump has repeatedly indicated that he might challenge the election results unless he is winning. This would imply a prolonged process involving mud slinging, laywers, and a lot of noise before the winner is officially declared (best case scenario). Worst case scenario is unlikely but would be horrifying to the US and allies, and I won't even try to describe it.

Given all the uncertainties related to the US political situation, perhaps Iran will wait and see how things play out. Being great chess players, perhaps they are mapping out various scenarios of the outcome of the US elections and plan accordingly. Some of the scenarios would open up windows of opportunities for Iran, which I am sure will take advantage of this.

Not just Ìran, but Russia, China, and Turkey with regard to the Middle East. Turkey, because it wants a free hand to deal to the Kurds, finishing off the Kurdish genocide that it started during WW1, and has categorically denied ever since even in the face irrefutable evidence. Also Erdoğan has his dream of reestablishing the Ottoman Empire with himself as Sultan Recep Han, Sovereign of The Sublime House of Osman, Sultan es Selatin (Sultan of Sultans), Khakhan (Khan of the Khans), Commander of the faithful and Successor of the Prophet of the lord of the Universe, Custodian of the Holy Cities of Mecca, Medina and Kouds (Jerusalem), Kayser-i Rum (Caesar of Rome), Padishah of The Three Cities of Istanbul (Constantinople), Edirne (Adrianople) and Bursa, and of the Cities of Châm (Damascus) and Cairo (Egypt), of all Azerbaijan, of the Maghreb, of Barkah, of Kairouan, of Alep, of the Arab and Persian Iraq, of Basra, of El Hasa strip, of Raqqa, of Mosul, of Parthia, of Diyâr-ı Bekr, of Cilicia, of the provinces of Erzurum, of Sivas, of Adana, of Karaman, of Van, of Barbaria, of Habech (Abyssinia), of Tunisia, of Tripoli, of Châm (Syria), of Cyprus, of Rhodes, of Crete, of the province of Morea (Peloponnese), of Bahr-i Sefid (Mediterranean Sea), of Bahr-i Siyah (Black Sea), of Anatolia, of Rumelia (the European part of the Empire), of Bagdad, of Kurdistan, of Greece, of Turkestan, of Tartary, of Circassia, of the two regions of Kabarda, of Gorjestan (Georgia), of the steppe of Kipchaks, of the whole country of the Tatars, of Kefa (Theodosia) and of all the neighbouring regions, of Bosnia, of the City and Fort of Belgrade, of the province of Sirbistan (Serbia), with all the castles and cities, of all Arnaut, of all Eflak (Wallachia) and Bogdania (Moldavia), as well as all the dependencies and borders, and many others countries and cities. Such a title with all the appellations will be irresistible to Erdoğan's already oversized ego.

Russia is already involved in Syria and Libya so it would be logical
to assume that it's involvement in both countries and the wider region will be ongoing for the foreseeable future. In fact its involvement may well deepen. Chinese involvement at the moment is both diplomatic and the provision of some war materials to the Syrian government. However with the UN arms sanctions against Iran being lifted, the Chinese have a good opportunity to reequip the Iranian Armed Forces and IRGC.

 

[Vivendi]

Not just Ìran, but Russia, China, and Turkey with regard to the Middle East. Turkey, because it wants a free hand to deal to the Kurds, finishing off the Kurdish genocide that it started during WW1, and has categorically denied ever since even in the face irrefutable evidence.

I have never before heard about "Kurdish genocide" starting during WW1; are you mixing up with the "Armenian genocide" which did start during WW1? And which some Kurds actually participated in:

Kurds in Turkey atone for their role in the Armenian genocide - The World from PRX

'Our silence makes us guilty'

www.pri.org

It is a pretty strong statement to say that Turkey will "finish off the Kurdish genocide" (if such a thing ever happened in the past). Turkey will be punished quite severely by the international society if they try anything like that. So far I have not seen any indications that this is what they are planning. Not that I in any way would defend their heavy-handed treatment of the Kurds, but we should also keep in mind that Turkey do have a legitimate reason to defend herself against Kurdish terrorists. Unfortunately it seems that Turkey is not very good at distinguishing between Kurdish terrorists and Kurdish civilians.

In any case, Turkey is moving in the wrong direction, the S-400 purchase is just one of many indications on this. If they don't abandon S-400 very soon they will never get the F-35, and also lose out on a number of other things. Hopefully they will change course and move closer to the West again. They are still a strategically important NATO ally, in spite of all the issues. But they must change course soon, there are limits to what NATO allies can accept from Turkey.

 

[ngatimozart]

I have never before heard about "Kurdish genocide" starting during WW1; are you mixing up with the "Armenian genocide" which did start during WW1? And which some Kurds actually participated in:

Kurds in Turkey atone for their role in the Armenian genocide - The World from PRX

'Our silence makes us guilty'

www.pri.org

It is a pretty strong statement to say that Turkey will "finish off the Kurdish genocide" (if such a thing ever happened in the past). Turkey will be punished quite severely by the international society if they try anything like that. So far I have not seen any indications that this is what they are planning. Not that I in any way would defend their heavy-handed treatment of the Kurds, but we should also keep in mind that Turkey do have a legitimate reason to defend herself against Kurdish terrorists. Unfortunately it seems that Turkey is not very good at distinguishing between Kurdish terrorists and Kurdish civilians.

In any case, Turkey is moving in the wrong direction, the S-400 purchase is just one of many indications on this. If they don't abandon S-400 very soon they will never get the F-35, and also lose out on a number of other things. Hopefully they will change course and move closer to the West again. They are still a strategically important NATO ally, in spite of all the issues. But they must change course soon, there are limits to what NATO allies can accept from Turkey.

Ah, mea culpa, I had my genocides confused. You are correct. It was the Armenian genocide that the Turks are guilty of. The Kurdish genocide occurred in Iraq during the time of Saddam Hussein when he used chemical warfare on them after Gulf War 1 in the 1990s.

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1346142129370746880

The IRGC said that it had seized the chemical tanker MT Hankuk Chemi on 4 Jan 2021 which has a gross tonnage of 9,797 tons, after receiving a request from the country's Ports and Maritime Organization.

The incident comes amid tensions over US$7 billion worth of Iranian assets is locked in South Korean banks after Washington tightened sanctions against Tehran. In April 2020, Seoul gained sanctions exemption from Washington for exports of humanitarian goods to Tehran. A foreign ministry official confirmed that the two countries and the U.S. have been in talks about using the Iranian money frozen at South Korean banks due to U.S. sanctions to purchase COVID-19 vaccines from a global vaccine procurement program.

Tehran reportedly had made the proposal to Seoul about the idea as a way to settle the issue over the frozen money, as it has been seeking to secure COVID-19 vaccines through the COVAX Facility.

South Korea's Defence Ministry on said it had dispatched its anti-piracy unit to waters near the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route in the Gulf region, to "ensure the safety" of South Korean nationals, after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, seized a South Korean-flagged tanker.

In Jan 2020, South Korean officials announced that they would expand their Cheonghae military unit, which has previously been focused on anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden in cooperation with the U.S. Navy-led Combined Task Force 151, to also cover operations in and around the Strait of Hormuz. South Korean Navy destroyers make rotational deployments in support of the Cheonghae unit, and form the core of that force.

Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha told reporters that the ROK was making diplomatic efforts to try to secure the release of the tanker and its crew, which includes sailors from Indonesia, Myanmar, South Korea and Vietnam.

 

[Ananda]

Tehran reportedly had made the proposal to Seoul about the idea as a way to settle the issue over the frozen money, as it has been seeking to secure COVID-19 vaccines through the COVAX Facility.

Great, the vaccine become hard commodity to bargain for. Before the Philippines President black mail US military cooperation for Vaccines access. Now some genius in Tehran try to black mail ROK for vaccine, with disturbing sea traffic.

They can get Chinese vaccine by trading oil, or perhaps they want others made Vaccine that can only be gain by hard currencies.
Still they have hard currencies mechanism with EU, thus it should be able for them to gain Euro Vaccine. It will be PR winnings for them if US or EU did not want to trade vaccine.

So doing something like this, it's just create less sympathy for them on the time of COVID crisis.

 

[John Fedup]

Can’t see too much sympathy from the West wrt to supplying vaccines to Iran when supplies are so limited. If Iran wants vaccines they should call their buddies, the Chinese and the Russians.

 

[OPSSG]

So doing something like this, it's just create less sympathy for them on the time of COVID crisis.

The Korean banks had no choice (due to the nature of US sanctions); and if there is another try by the IRGC to take a 2nd Korean merchant ship, ROKS Dae Jo-yeong (DDH-977), the 150m long Korean Navy destroyer that will soon be on scene, will shoot and kill them, if they are not deterred by warning shots.

There is no denying that Blinken is a traditional Atlanticist in orientation. Re-engaging NATO and reconfiguring it for the challenges of the 21st century will clearly be a priority be a priority. Blinken speaks fluent French and in his roles in the NSC under Obama and as deputy secretary of state, Blinken advocated for more robust U.S. involvement in the Syria conflict. Notably he broke with his boss, Biden, to support the armed intervention in Libya. He was also a close aide to Biden when the then-senator supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. He continues to believe that diplomacy needs to be “supplemented by deterrence” and “force can be a necessary adjunct to effective diplomacy. It’s worth reading a primer, see: Biden Foreign Policy Team on Iran

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1346436062386806785

IRGC is Iran’s arm for piracy. But their use of a Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization boat will trigger coalition concerns about the need to sink Iranian civilian vessels too, when shooting starts.

The more capable members of ASEAN, like Indonesia and Singapore (and in my view, the only 2 navies capable of a 2 to 3 month long sail within ASEAN), may have to think about sending a combined naval command or task group. We may also need to expand the scope of CTF-151 (with the support of the Americans), to go to the Norther Arabian gulf and rotate with the Korean Navy or the JMSDF, in the later part of 2021.

It’s not acceptable, Iran’s actions.

Can’t see too much sympathy from the West wrt to supplying vaccines to Iran when supplies are so limited.

It’s not just the West. Member states within the ASEAN group are also not taking this kindly — given that the crew of MT Hankuk Chemi, are from Indonesia, Myanmar, South Korea, and Vietnam. It’s just that most ASEAN navies can’t deploy for months away from home.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1346312917872852992

ROKS Dae Jo-yeong of the Korean navy on the scene.

 

[swerve]

I have never before heard about "Kurdish genocide" starting during WW1; are you mixing up with the "Armenian genocide" which did start during WW1? And which some Kurds actually participated in:

Kurds in Turkey atone for their role in the Armenian genocide - The World from PRX

'Our silence makes us guilty'

www.pri.org

...

Some Turkish Kurds have Armenian ancestors, particularly great- & great-great-grandmothers. Women (especially if young) & children were sometimes saved from the massacres & deportations (which were mostly slow massacres - e.g. marched through mountains in winter) by local Kurds, & absorbed into their families - but the women often had to marry their rescuers & the children would be brought up as Kurds.

The article says all the Armenians in Diyarbakir left in the 1950s & 60s. I was there in the late 1980s, & there were still a few, though mostly old. That was before the roof of the Surp Giragos church fell in*, & there were a couple of old people looking after it, & a few more who went there to pray. There were some younger Armenians, too: I met one, & one day he greeted me as he walked past & a Kurd spat on the pavement & swore, something like "fucking Armenian". The young Kurd who'd offered to show me round (said it was good for his English, & I owed him nothing) looked very embarassed, & when we were alone together apologised & assured me that not all Kurds were like that. He didn't challenge the other man, though.

*Since restored, & in the pictures looks much smarter than in 1988, when it was very shabby & run-down - but I can't help wondering what happened to the paintings & furnishings. Some were of low quality, but a lot were old, & perhaps of historic value. Erdogan expropriated it & other property in the old city, including the Syriac church (had a thriving congregation in 1988) in 2016, a few years after the restoration.

 

[Ananda]

not just the West. Member states within the ASEAN group are also not taking this kindly.

Learning from Somalian Pirates problem, I do think that many East and South East Asian will follow this carefully. In one hand, it's the route where many of the Oil Trades coming from. On the other hand, many Asians tend to thread carefully in order not to be suck in on Middle East conundrum.

Still if more Asian tankers being obtain by Iranian authority, I do see just in Somalian waters there will be more Asian Naval fleet come to escort their civilian ships in the Gulf. Right now I think some of the Asians government will try to follow this carefully. To see if this's only separate incident, or this's part of increase erratic behavior from Iranian hard wings.