The Situation With Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

[ngatimozart]

Japan is deploying 2 P-3C aircraft and a DDG to cover high seas in the Gulf of Oman, the northern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden, but not the Strait of Hormuz, in order to protect Japanese shipping. The force has authority to use weapons to protect ships in danger. It is not part of either the US led operation or the EU operation, being a separate Japanese operation. Japan to send warship, aircraft to Middle East to protect vessels

Wonder how many more countries will have naval forces in the area that are either independent nor part or the US or EU groups? Could get a bit crowded. All because some pollies and their cronies got a hard on about the US unilaterally withdrawing from the agreement and then slapping crippling sanctions on Iran. By all accounts Iran was honouring its side of the agreement. No wonder Iran has reacted the way it has, because those crippling sanctions are basically casus belli, because they are an attack on Iran's economy. They are a blockade - an act or merchant raiding / warfare.

It was argued that the agreement was a bad deal for the US - but, was it? The US is now having to spend tens, if not hundreds billions of extra dollars, on moving extra forces and assets to the Gulf of Hormuz and the region to protect its shipping and its interests and it has forced other countries to do the same. It has made the world a more dangerous place and played right into Russia's and the PRC's hands. The thing is the US doesn't really have the money to afford this, with the DOD operating on a fixed budget and platforms are not being maintained and replaced as they should be due to the continual wars that US has been fighting for 18 years. The DOD has been operating on continuing resolutions since 2013 and it can't plan ahead. Platform maintenance has been continually deferred until recently in order to free up platforms and funds for combat, and the US political and governance system is still dysfunctional.

Apart from the F-35 no new operational aircraft designs have been introduced into service in recent times and the USN is struggling to introduce a new CVN class and a new SSGN class. The USAF is struggling to replace the KC-135 and KC-10 because the KC-45 was nixed on appeal by Boeing politicking and congressional pork barrelling and the KC-46 is problematic due to Boeing foul ups. If they had gone with the KC-45 as originally accepted, it would be flying FOC well and truly with many Sqns and Wings operating it now. The US Army hasn't fielded any new platforms in ages and it's basically operating 1980 / 90s platforms that have been upgraded.

Hence, the US is picking a fight with Iran using gear that is war worn and tired, with personnel who are tired, many of whom have done multiple combat tours. You can only push your gear and people so far before something gives. Unfortunately most pollies and rabble rousers don't understand this. How much treasure will be spent and blood spilt for this latest bout of idiocy by pollies and their cronies who should know better, but pander to their own vanity instead?

 

[John Fedup]

The 4 SSGNs aren’t being replaced by a Columbia version SSBN that I am aware of. This role is sort of replaced by the Virginia payload module on block V boats.

 

[Ananda]

Trading partners preference to USD:
1. It's easier and more convenient for them to trade on one denominator, instead has to prepare multiple denominator.
2. It's most traded currency thus the supply and exchange mechanism will be more available and relative stable on long term (compared to others).

Sorry if I put another article concerning whether USD dominance will be sometimes being replaced. If the Mod's see this can be put on separate thread, please do. Considering USD dominance is basically one of cornerstone of US dominance asside it's military power and largest economy.

Why Central Banks Are Dumping the Dollar | OZY

It's couple months old, but I think it can be used to summarize that even some countries dumping USD, however mostly due to political reasons. Thus it still provide little intensive for commercial sectors to dump USD, even for commercial sectors in the country that in the odds with US.

The article also point out, as I've discussed on previous post, the one main thing that can ruin USD dominance is behavior of US Financial regulators. The article also point out the challenge of commercial market to use other currencies, which included trust to that particular alternative currencies and the size of USD market.

Even the article talk about actions that some countries dumping USD reserve, it will take at least one or two decades for any Currencies become real alternative. Even that for me, USD still maintain lead as most usable currency on commercial International trade.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

Iran has mass launched ballistic missiles against multiple US bases across the Middle East. Reportedly there were two waves of missiles. Shiite militias in Iraq are mobilizing, Iranian fighter jets are already in the air, and there are unconfirmed reports of jets taking off in the UAE. The Revolutionary Guard have stated that if the US retaliates, Iran will hit targets in Israel next.

The Iranian president tweeted a picture of the Iranian flag after the strikes.

Иран обстрелял американские базы в Ираке
Iran fires missiles at multiple U.S. positions in Iraq in retaliation for Soleimani killing

6 US B-52H bombers have been rebased to Diego-Garcia.

Wall

The Iranian parliament has classified the US Pentagon as a terrorist organization.

Парламент Ирана единогласно признал Пентагон террористической организацией

The Iraq prime minister has resigned. But before leaving he has a made a number of revelations; he stated that recent protests in Iraq were created by the US in response to Iraqi deals with China. He also claimed that Trump threatened to have him and the Iraqi MinDef killed, and also threatened to have US snipers fire on both protesters and security forces to escalate the situation. It appears that other members of Parliament attempted to stop the PM from speaking.

Abdul Mahdi also claimed that the US demanded 50% of Iraqi oil profits in coming years to pay for US reconstruction, and on-going US infrastructural projects in Iraq. Iraq then opted to partner with China for those projects instead. Mahdi claimed that upon returning from China, Trump called him and threatened him with protests if he doesn't cancel his deals with China. There was allegedly a second conversation where Trump threatened to use US military personnel to fire on protesters and security forces to spark violence, and a third call where Trump allegedly threatened to have the Iraqi PM and MinDef killed.

Почему премьер-министр Ирака подал в отставку

The US accidentally or "accidentally" released a letter stating that it was preparing to withdraw from Iraq, then rapidly backtracked.

США "по ошибке" объявили о выводе войск из Ирака
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/4364232.html

A Russian military delegation visited the Iranian embassy in Syria, to offer condolences for the death of Soleimani.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/889270.html

Iran has withdrawn from remaining limits on enriching uranium.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/889437.html

Approximately 5.5 million Iranians take to the streets for Soleimanis funeral.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5546087.html

 

[Feanor]

Update 2.

The US says Iran launched a total of 15 missiles, 10 against Ayn-al-Asad base, 1 hit Erbil, and 4 didn't make it. According to the Pentagon no US military personnel were killed in the Iranian strike. If true, it makes the situation look very odd.

This is also contradicted by Russian sources claiming Ayn-al-Asad was hit at least 35 times. It's possible the numbers above only refer to the first wave of missiles.

Wall
Wall
Иранские силы нанесли по американской базе не менее 35 ударов

Israeli air force and air defense are on high alert.

Wall

US is closing down civilian air traffic for US airlines over Iraq, Iran, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman.

Wall

Turkish sources report that Erdogan has forbade the US from using Incirlik airbase to strike Iran under threat of closing the base.

Wall

Allegedly Qiam-1 and Zolfaghar missiles were used in the strike against US bases.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1297428

 

[OPSSG]

IMO, Iran’s latest actions is a sign of weakness, not strength. They are lacking in the ability to conduct precision strikes. Iran’s weak local currency contributed to high levels of inflation — which the World Bank said peaked at 52% in May 2019. That raises the costs of living in Iran at a time when job opportunities are lacking. One main implication of a stagnant or declining economy is rising unemployment rate, which has been seen in Iran. The Iranian government has limited finances to roll out measures in order to lift the country's economy. That has been exacerbated by overall subdued economy activity and restrictions on oil sale overseas, due to the sanctions in place. Such fiscal constraints would limit Iran's ability to fund a war.

After Iran’s missile launches, there was confusion about whether the American President Trump would address the nation, but he ultimately decided to take to Twitter. “All is well!” Trump tweeted. “Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.”

Iraq now finds itself in a difficult position between Iran and the US.

Edit: Apologies for the prior factual error on Iraqis being killed in this post (that has since been edited). Iraq sources have also confirmed that none of their troops were killed in the 16 missile Iranian attack launched on the Ain al-Asad air base in the western Anbar province and a base in the Iraqi Kurdish capital Erbil.

• Iraq received "an official verbal message" from Iran about the missile attack shortly before midnight on Wednesday, according to a statement from Iraq's Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi. He said Iraq was told that the strike would be "limited to the whereabouts of the US military in Iraq, without giving the exact location."
• US Army General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that, in his personal opinion, Iran was aiming to kill American personnel and destroy US equipment with its missiles strikes on Al Asad and Erbil. This contradicts earlier reports that US officials believed that the Iranian regime had deliberately chosen targets to try to avoid causing casualties, as some Trump administration officials suggested.
• US Defense Secretary Mark Esper also denied reports that the US was warned of the attack by Iraq, which itself was warned by Iran. He said that instead, the US warned Iraq of the attack, after its intelligence systems detected preparations for Iran's launch. IMO, Iran did not intentionally miss areas populated by Americans when they targeted two Iraqi bases housing US troops but simply failed to hit anything meaningful due to US capability to detect Iranian preparations for launch.

It seems as if the Iranians are lacking in intelligence on current American troop locations in Iraq — Iran’s missile attacks have failed to gain a propaganda windfall from the missile attacks by failing to kill Americans and we await President Trump’s response in the days ahead. As this drags on, more Iraqi citizens will be killed by the Iranians — making the Iraqi citizens realise how little Tehran cares. For some context to the Iranian missile strikes in Iraq that only killed Iraqi citizens, below is an extract of an interview with David Petraeus:

Foreign Policy (FP): What impact will the killing of Gen. Suleimani have on regional tensions?

David Petraeus (DP): It is impossible to overstate the importance of this particular action. It is more significant than the killing of Osama bin Laden or even the death of [Islamic State leader Abu Bakr] al-Baghdadi. Suleimani was the architect and operational commander of the Iranian effort to solidify control of the so-called Shia crescent, stretching from Iran to Iraq through Syria into southern Lebanon. He is responsible for providing explosives, projectiles, and arms and other munitions that killed well over 600 American soldiers and many more of our coalition and Iraqi partners just in Iraq, as well as in many other countries such as Syria. So his death is of enormous significance.

The question of course is how does Iran respond in terms of direct action by its military and Revolutionary Guard Corps forces? And how does it direct its proxies—the Iranian-supported Shia militia in Iraq and Syria and southern Lebanon, and throughout the world?

FP: Two previous administrations have reportedly considered this course of action and dismissed it. Why did Trump act now?

DP: The reasoning seems to be to show in the most significant way possible that the U.S. is just not going to allow the continued violence—the rocketing of our bases, the killing of an American contractor, the attacks on shipping, on unarmed drones—without a very significant response.

Many people had rightly questioned whether American deterrence had eroded somewhat because of the relatively insignificant responses to the earlier actions. This clearly was of vastly greater importance. Of course it also, per the Defense Department statement, was a defensive action given the reported planning and contingencies that Suleimani was going to Iraq to discuss and presumably approve.

This was in response to the killing of an American contractor, the wounding of American forces, and just a sense of how this could go downhill from here if the Iranians don’t realize that this cannot continue.

FP: Do you think this response was proportionate?

DP: It was a defensive response and this is, again, of enormous consequence and significance. But now the question is: How does Iran respond with its own forces and its proxies, and then what does that lead the U.S. to do?

Iran is in a very precarious economic situation, it is very fragile domestically—they’ve killed many, many hundreds if not thousands of Iranian citizens who were demonstrating on the streets of Iran in response to the dismal economic situation and the mismanagement and corruption. I just don’t see the Iranians as anywhere near as supportive of the regime at this point as they were decades ago during the Iran-Iraq War. Clearly the supreme leader has to consider that as Iran considers the potential responses to what the U.S. has done.

It will be interesting now to see if there is a U.S. diplomatic initiative to reach out to Iran and to say, “Okay, the next move could be strikes against your oil infrastructure and your forces in your country—where does that end?”

FP: Will Iran consider this an act of war?

DP: I don’t know what that means, to be truthful. They clearly recognize how very significant it was. But as to the definition—is a cyberattack an act of war? No one can ever answer that. We haven’t declared war, but we have taken a very, very significant action.

 

[Feanor]

IMO, Iran’s latest actions is a sign of weakness, not strength. They are lacking in the ability to conduct precision strikes

Yeah, I've always been confused by Iranian ballistic missile deployments. They're not very accurate, and not very powerful, with conventional warheads. It can't be cheap to deploy them either. All the while the Iranian air force is in sad shape, their air defense mediocre, and their ground forces are largely straight out of the 60s.

by killing only Iraqis, Iran has failed to gain a propaganda windfall from the missile attacks and we await President Donald Trump’s response in the days ahead. As this drags on, more Iraqi citizens will be killed by Iran — making the Iraqi citizens realise how little Tehran cares.

Well, let's not forget who else recently killed Iraqis during a strike intended for a geopolitical opponent... I suspect the years of US bombing and artillery work won't be outweighed by a few Iranian strikes.

 

[OPSSG]

Not sure where the action-reaction cycle will lead to for Washington or Tehran. Where does it end? Especially, given that Iran is conducting direct attacks from its own soil. International airlines have started diverting all flight routes from Iranian airspace.

In more bad news from Iran, at least 56 people have been killed and over 200 injured in a stampede in the southeastern Iranian city of Kerman at the funeral procession for top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Quds Force Commander, Major General Qassem Soleimani who was assassinated in an drone strike by the Americans. The Quds Force is led by Major General Qasem Soleimani, who is believed to be more than a mere military commander. Since 2003, the Quds Force has intensified its operations across the Middle East, providing training, funding and weapons to non-state groups allied to Tehran.

The late Major General Soleimani the most powerful man in Tehran short of Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei. This was not an act of revenge for what the General had done in the past. This was a preemptive, defensive strike planned to take out the organizer of attacks yet to come. The Iranian regime’s credibility has been badly hit in 2019/2020. It has to abandon past practice of using proxies and retaliate openly, if Iran’s credibility and ultimately its legitimacy — already under stress from poor economic performance — is not to be further undermined.

But further open retaliation by Iran against US forces also carries grievous risks. Iran’s next blow may be against US friends and allies in the Gulf including Israel and other non-Gulf states who have deployed assets there, like Japan. The IRCG said in its Telegram channel that, in the event Iranian soil is bombed, it will target the cities of Dubai, UAE, and Haifa, Israel, in the third wave of operations.

Due to Iranian threats, the UAE, meanwhile, is looking to extend the range of its Al Tariq glide bomb by fitting a small turbojet engine. The glide-bomb variant of the Al Tariq has a range in excess of 100km. Fitting it with a turbojet would more than double that range. The Al Tariq is based on South Africa’s Umbani glide-bomb kit. A mock-up of the engine installation was shown on the stand of the UAE’s new EDGE defence-industrial consortium at the Dubai Air Show, held on 17–21 November 2019. The Al Tariq family of weapons has featured prominently as one of the main capabilities used by the UAE Air Force (UAEAF) in taking part in the Saudi Arabian-led intervention in Yemen. Semi-active-laser and imaging-infrared seeker options are available. The weapon is integrated on the UAEAF’s F-16 Block 60.

Yeah, I've always been confused by Iranian ballistic missile deployments. They're not very accurate, and not very powerful, with conventional warheads. It can't be cheap to deploy them either. All the while the Iranian air force is in sad shape, their air defense mediocre, and their ground forces are largely straight out of the 60s..

Not to forget the high dud rate of Iran’s missiles in the 14 Sep 2019 Saudi and this 8 Jan 2020 missile attack in Iraq.

Some observers were skeptical that Iran will launch a direct attack, but they were proven wrong. More likely, they say, is a retaliation attack on softer targets, possibly including American embassies or civilian sites, using the militias that serve as Iran’s proxies in the region. For example in 1992, a month after Israeli helicopters fired missiles to kill the leader of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, a suicide bomber killed 29 people at Israel’s embassy in Argentina. This retaliation against an Israeli embassy may provide pointers for what might unfold in the wake of Soleimani’s violent death (viz a viz the Americans). American embassies and civilian sites world wide will need to be extra careful in the months ahead.

 

[Feanor]

Not sure where the action-reaction cycle will lead to for Washington or Tehran. Where does it end? Especially, given that Iran is conducting direct attacks from its own soil. International airlines have started diverting all flight routes from Iranian airspace.

Yeah, on that point, a Ukrainian 737 went down in Iran, near Tehran, just now, apparently killing all on board.

В районе Тегерана разбился украинский Boing-737

Not to forget the high dud rate of Iran’s missiles in the 14 Sep 2019 Saudi and this 8 Jan 2020 missile attack in Iraq.

High dud rate is one thing, it's a development issue, and possibly a quality of production issue. But its solvable over time, and with experience. I don't understand the principle idea behind deploying a bucket of large IRBMs with conventional warheads. The cost of this can't be cheap, and the effectiveness low. Imagine they all work, they're still hardly a cost-effective way of getting anything done. They're not very accurate and not very powerful.

 

[ngatimozart]

Yeah, on that point, a Ukrainian 737 went down in Iran, near Tehran, just now, apparently killing all on board.

В районе Тегерана разбился украинский Boing-737



High dud rate is one thing, it's a development issue, and possibly a quality of production issue. But its solvable over time, and with experience. I don't understand the principle idea behind deploying a bucket of large IRBMs with conventional warheads. The cost of this can't be cheap, and the effectiveness low. Imagine they all work, they're still hardly a cost-effective way of getting anything done. They're not very accurate and not very powerful.

Yep they mightn't be accurate or powerfull but, for example, a 500 kg warhead plus the missile inertia still makes for a big bang and hole in the ground. Part of it is politics and politics is all about perceptions. The theocracy promised revenge upon the great satan and so it has rained down the wrath of the righteous upon the great satan in the form of fire and destruction. Revenge, like justice is seen to be done and POTUS if he has any brains, leaves it at that. The theocracy claims revenge, the US can claim nothing important was hit or damaged etc., and both parties agree that face has been saved on both sides and to settle things down a bit. Unfortunately POTUS is somewhat hotheaded and his Iranian counterpart much the same although more calm and calculating before acting.

Edit: Add link

 

[MrConservative]

Actually I tend to avoid woke media like the plague and I also believe that Soleimani got what he deserved, but there are other ways of achieving the same object and getting the message to Tehran without inflaming the Middle East anymore than it already is. There are more than one way of killing an alley cat besides stuffing its arse full of sticky buns.

So what other ways would you have taken out Soleimani who was in curiously in Baghdad? Yeah and Soleimani was not there as a tourist which is the duplicity not being mentioned here.

The Middle East has been inflamed by the actions of the Islamic Republic of Iran for 40 years. Their roll call of malfeasance existed long before Trump.

Actually the calculated, proportional and precise selection of sticking certain exploding sticky buns up the interior back cavities of certain selected alley cats in the Iranian regime, which the Soleimani takeout indeed was - is a blunt and effective message that will see the regime curtailing their disruptive efforts and get back into their box as an act of survival albeit with the usual puffery and rhetoric, marked by gestures of tough guyness like lobbing a few missiles into an air base for ones domestic regime propaganda.

Oh but because Trump does it, who - and lets be candid here - immediately makes all and sundry lose their objectivity when no other former US President would not have passed on the chance to take out an individual like Soleimani, the Godfather of Islamic terrorism, who represented a clear and present danger to not just US security but to those of its partners in the Gulf States plus Jordan, and the only democracy in the ME Israel.

TBH the last good US president was George HW Bush, USN Retd, the 41st POTUS. Currently the US White House, Congress and political classes are dysfunctional and toxic, and until that changes the US is buggered politically. They can't even pass a federal budget having to use continuing resolutions, and IIRC that's been the new normal since 2013. They are heading into the 2020 election and Trump still hasn't filled some of the positions vacated after the 2016 election. The organisational ability is just about as bad as the lot we have running the govt in Wellington.

What has this got to do with Rouhani and a sadistic thug like Soleimani in the context of the current US President or the House of Congress?

 

[OPSSG]

The US strike against Major General Soleimani is a reaction to the Dec 2019 attack of the US Baghdad embassy by protesters (aka an Iranian Shia militia proxy) angry at US airstrikes that targeted the shia militia group Kataeb Hezbollah, which were in turn a response to the death of a US contractor following a rocket attack against a military base near Kirkuk. In reality, the killing of Major General Soleimani needs to be seen in a wider context to fully understand the reason for the strike:

On the one hand, the US quest to reclaim influence has led the Trump Administration to make a strategic error. Far from undermining the Iranian authorities and the Iranian led militia system in Iraq, the latest step taken by the US to assassinate Major General Soleimani has strengthened hardliners in Iran. Iran is regional power and its leaders want to weigh in on the future of the Middle East. Brigadier General Ismail Qa'-ani has been named as the new IRGC-Quds Force commander and the Iranian reaction will certainly involve the continuation of war by proxy, cyber warfare, and hybrid warfare. The blow inflicted by the death of Major General Soleimani has acted as a reminder to Iran’s population that there is currently no viable alternative to its current regime.

On the other hand, Trump Administration’s killing of Major General Soleimani may have made US deterrence credible in the region, but it doesn’t solve Saudi Arabia’s or UAE’s power imbalance with Iran, as Riyadh or Abu Dhabi wishes. Nor does this deterrence of Iran help Israel with its security dilemma. The nature, geographic scope, and scale of Iran’s response to the killing of its general will also determine whether Iran’s proxies will continue to be a top priority on the US.

The Americans killed the most powerful man in Tehran short of Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei. This was not an act of revenge for what the General had done in the past. This was a preemptive, defensive strike planned to take out the organizer of attacks yet to come. The Iranian regime’s credibility has been badly hit in 2019/2020. It has to abandon past practice of using proxies and retaliate openly, if Iran’s credibility and ultimately its legitimacy — already under stress from poor economic performance — is not to be further undermined. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who earlier promised "revenge" for Soleimani, called the missiles a "slap in the face" against the US.

The Middle East has been inflamed by the actions of the Islamic Republic of Iran for 40 years. Their roll call of malfeasance existed long before Trump.

Actually the calculated, proportional and precise selection of sticking certain exploding sticky buns up the interior back cavities of certain selected alley cats in the Iranian regime, which the Soleimani takeout indeed was - is a blunt and effective message that will see the regime curtailing their disruptive efforts and get back into their box as an act of survival albeit with the usual puffery and rhetoric, marked by gestures of tough guyness like lobbing a few missiles into an air base for ones domestic regime propaganda.

Oh but because Trump does it, who - and lets be candid here - immediately makes all and sundry lose their objectivity when no other former US President would not have passed on the chance to take out an individual like Soleimani, the Godfather of Islamic terrorism, who represented a clear and present danger to not just US security but to those of its partners in the Gulf States plus Jordan, and the only democracy in the ME Israel.

What has this got to do with Rouhani and a sadistic thug like Soleimani in the context of the current US President or the House of Congress?

I agree.

The assassination of Major General Soleimani adds to the complexities and risks of the Middle East. But the Middle East is never free of complexities and risks in the first place. Was he a friend of the US, Australia, NZ or other countries in Asia? There is no course of action anywhere that is free of risk. Sometimes the biggest risk is to try and avoid any risk and let Iran choose to escalate its attacks in Iraq, in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, at a time of their choosing, without imposing a cost to them.

In this case, Iran launched a retaliation — significant enough that it could move on but limited enough that the US avoid a response. With no loss of life, civilian or military by the US and Iraq, the action-reaction cycle can stop. In a televised address to the nation from the White House, Trump emphasised that there were "no Americans harmed" in the salvo of missiles aimed at two bases. He added: "Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world." While he promised to immediately impose "punishing" new economic sanctions on Tehran, Trump welcomed signs the Islamic republic "appears to be standing down" in the tit-for-tat confrontation.

Anyway, the response of the Democratic Party nay-sayers is much more about American domestic politics in an election year than international relations and I would bet that it could backfire for the Democrats electorally. This is a national issue not a partisan issue, or ought to be!

 

[ngatimozart]

So what other ways would you have taken out Soleimani who was in curiously in Baghdad? Yeah and Soleimani was not there as a tourist which is the duplicity not being mentioned here.

The Middle East has been inflamed by the actions of the Islamic Republic of Iran for 40 years. Their roll call of malfeasance existed long before Trump.

Actually the calculated, proportional and precise selection of sticking certain exploding sticky buns up the interior back cavities of certain selected alley cats in the Iranian regime, which the Soleimani takeout indeed was - is a blunt and effective message that will see the regime curtailing their disruptive efforts and get back into their box as an act of survival albeit with the usual puffery and rhetoric, marked by gestures of tough guyness like lobbing a few missiles into an air base for ones domestic regime propaganda.

Oh but because Trump does it, who - and lets be candid here - immediately makes all and sundry lose their objectivity when no other former US President would not have passed on the chance to take out an individual like Soleimani, the Godfather of Islamic terrorism, who represented a clear and present danger to not just US security but to those of its partners in the Gulf States plus Jordan, and the only democracy in the ME Israel.

What has this got to do with Rouhani and a sadistic thug like Soleimani in the context of the current US President or the House of Congress?

I am not and never have been a Trumpian apologist or acolyte who places him on a pedastal and thinks that he can do no wrong. I am quite dispassionate about him and all other pollies and I believe that he along with others has made errors of judgement, that not only impact upon the US but other nations as well.

You mentioned Israel. Interesting that Israel quickly distanced itself from this sitution stating that it wanted nothing to do with it. It said that it would punish severely anyone who attacked it. Israel is quite capable of defending itself and is a nuclear power.

You and others on here are well aware of my thoughts about all pollies, regardless of their political persuasion. I am very ecunumical about my feelings towards pollies - I have a very strong dislike of them all.

I have never said that Soleimani should not have been eliminated, but like I said earlier he could've been eliminated in a way that was not so public and left the US with public plausible deniability, whilst behind the scenes, in private, sheeting home the message to Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei, the one person in Iran who really counts, his cohorts, plus Putin and Xi. It could've even been finessed by sending a message within the message, such as doing the hit in Tehran.

I also think that people need to take a step back and reflect upon the whole Middle East and look at the history from WW1 onwards and decide where the problems today have their root causes, rather than diving head long into the current media / political memes about the problems. Yes I know it's like telling people to suck eggs, but I think it may help us to have a refresh of the history of the past 100 years of the region, to hopefully gain a better understanding.

Is Iran the fount of all Islamic terrorism in the Middle East? Last time I looked it was not proselytizing Wahhabism around the globe, which is the sect from which sprung Al Quaeda and Daesh, plus a few other unsavoury terrorist groups. Wahhabism happens to be proselytized by Saudi Arabia. Don't get me wrong, the theocracy in Iran has a helluva lot to answer for, but then I would argue so does the Saudi govt and monarchy, but of course we turn a blind eye to the Saudis because the US and Euros make a lot of money from Saudi armament purchases; the Euros and us needing their oil, and it suits us at the moment. The point of this is before people go demonising Iran, do some checking first because the discourse about Iran being totally evil, may not be absolutely correct. It may possibly be that Iran is only 75 - 85% evil, and also remember that the US invaded Iraq in 2003 on the pretext of what later proved to be incorrect / false intelligence about WMDs, so be careful when reading / listening / watching items on Iran, because said items may only be telling one side of the story. Don't forget all govts lie: US, UK, CAN, Australia, NZ, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Russia, China etc., with some more allergic to the truth than others.

 

[OPSSG]

US Iran: what shooting down a $110 mn drone tells us about Iran's military - CNN

""They work," said Jeremy Binnie, Middle East and North Africa editor at Jane's Defence Weekly, of Iran's air defenses. The incident "highlights that when the Iranians really make investment, it can really count," he told CNN.

"We knew that with ballistic missiles, but it appears the case with air defenses too."

Janes concluded the strike was likely from a mobile vehicle, given the US contention the missile was launched from 70 kilometers away, and there is no Iranian facility matching that location. In short: Tehran took out a US spy drone from the back of a fancy truck.

Binnie said the Iranians had either bought or developed radar technology that had helped them improve targeting at a distance. "We do not really understand how these guidance systems are working," he said."

The benefit of making indigenous radars and SAM systems is that people don't understand them. In fact, the US even claimed Iran used S-125 to shoot down the RQ-4 (Iran doesn't even have S-125!).

What I find most funny is last week Iran unveiled new 15th Khordad SAM system, and US special rep to Iran Brian Hook said it was "propaganda". I wonder what he thinks now.

I have said before that any air defence or IADS needs to have an efficient and sophisticated C4ISR system to de-conflict friendlies from hostile aircraft — at the time where Iran shot down a US Navy RQ-4 Global Hawk in June 2019, idiotic supporters of the Iranian regime were making wild claims on Iranian IADS capability, while I remained unimpressed, as I was back then.

People still doubting Iran's radars?

Iran has latest modern anti-stealth radars of all types, including at least 4x anti-stealth OTHRs in operation already across Iran

I am still uncertain of Iranian capability to de-conflict their own air space with proper aircraft identification systems (eg. IFF and ADS-B) and robust situational awareness of civilian air traffic patterns and schedules (instead of blindly firing a missile into a sky potentially crowded with civilian aircraft). Any functioning IADS must:

(a) find enemy targets (like aircraft and cruise missiles) using long-range surveillance radars; to use Target Acquisition Radars (TARs) to enable the enemy aircraft or cruise missiles to be located with enough accuracy to allow it to be fired on;​

(b) taking the data from long-range surveillance radars and/or TARs, and using the C4ISR to direct your defensive platforms to attack enemy targets and at this stage, it is not uncommon to use a type of radar system called a Fire Control System (FCS), or sometimes called an illuminator, to direct radar guided surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) towards enemy aircraft, cruise or ballistic missiles. These defensive platforms include fighters conducting DCA missions, SAMs of various ranges and AAA; and​

(c) do not let the defensive platforms attack your own forces. Therefore, de-confliction is a key aspect of an IADS (or avoidance of fratricide). Think of IADS as a series of concentric defensive circles; the outermost might be assigned to fighters on defensive counter air; next SAMs of various ranges; and finally AAA. The C4ISR system must not only provide the defenders with a common operating picture, it must also provide both blue force tracking and airspace management (so the the air bases being defended can continue to launch fighters).​

Due to what happened to Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 after it left Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport on 9 Jan 2020, I remain unimpressed as Iranian C4 systems for their IADS did not demonstrate the capability to de-conflict with civilian aircraft taking off from their own airports. The Iranians are not the only one to make this type of mistake in the fog of war — on 22 Mar 2003 an American Patriot battery shot down a British Tornado GR4 as it was wrongly identified as an anti-radiation missile after returning from a mission during the opening of Operation Iraqi Freedom or the 27 Feb 2019 shooting down of an Indian Mi-17 helicopter by an Indian surface-to-air missile during the flare-up of aerial violence with Pakistan near Kashmir.

Seems to be consensus amoung FEYES that an Iranian SAM, specifically an SA-15, shot down Ukrainian airlines flight PS752. It appears two missiles were fired at the aircraft, at least one of which exploded close enough to bring it down. No doubt it will take some time for the full details to come to light.

What really happened to Ukraine International Airlines flight 752? | The Strategist

A couple of hours after Iran launched a missile salvo against Americans in two Iraqi military bases, Iranian air-defence units around Tehran would have been on high alert for the possibility of a US retaliatory strike. Those units would have been looking for relatively low-flying cruise missiles, fast-moving missiles arriving at high altitude and other airborne threats which the SA-15 is designed to defeat. CNN has obtained video on Thursday that appears to show a missile being fired into the Tehran sky and striking an object, around the same time that a Ukrainian plane crashed just after taking off from the city's airport.

The demise of the Ukrainian jet is likely a missile because I just can’t imagine our PM, junior, would ever offer such a strong statement without some compelling info considering how he likes to follow the path of least resistance...

Another question, which I mentioned in the General Aviation thread is why did Iran allow commercial air operations right after a military BM strike and why did Ukraine allow a carrier to continue operations after the Drone strike last week. The Malaysian air downing should have been a redflag for Ukraine.

Agreed.

If the Iranian regime’s own air defence missile is shown to have shot down a civilian airliner taking off from its own airport, their humiliation from the escalation of their conflict with the Americans in Iraq is complete. Iran’s propaganda machine tried to spew fake news and claim that it is a bird strike or engine fire that brought down the aircraft. Initially Iranian officials countered charges by western governments that a pair of missiles were fired at the plane, accusing them of “psychological warfare.” At the same time they have also vowed to follow the norms of crash investigations, including inviting representatives of the U.S. and Boeing. They also held on to the black box despite mounting calls for investigations to be made considering many of those who died are foreign nationals; and photos of the wreckage show that it was peppered with holes, an occurrence that happens when the Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 was hit by shrapnel from Iranian SA-15 anti-aircraft missiles.

But most members of DT (other than @Persian Gulf) will be able to discern fact from Iranian propaganda.

 

[OPSSG]

Iran admits it 'unintentionally' shot down Ukrainian plane

RIP to the civilians in Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 that was killed by the Iranian regime in what seems to be a tragic mistake. Good to see that the Iranians have finally admitted this mistake after days of denial. Iran’s defeat to President Donald Trump is its own doing. After attacking regional oil tankers and Saudi oil installations and downing a US drone with no US reprisal, Iran “concluded that Trump was all talk and bluster,” according to Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment.

In fact, Iran had become so complacent that, on the day before Major General Soleimani’s death, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei belittled Trump’s various threats. “[Trump] has tweeted that he sees Iran responsible for the events in Baghdad and will respond,” he said in a tweet, alluding to the months of deadly protests in the Iraqi capital. He then added: “You can’t do anything.” A day later, a US drone killed Major General Soleimani. Given his long career, Khamenei probably realized instantly that Trump had changed the rules of the game. To make matters worse, the Iranians face domestic criticism for shooting down a civilian airliner.

I tend to think of the current outcome as a pause rather than a conclusion to American and Iranian hostilities. The region is still on a hair-trigger. The IRGC is unlikely to accept that Tehran’s ‘fake’ strike closes the account on Major General Soleimani’s assassination. He spent decades building up proxy forces through the region and the risk of conflict remains high. The late Major General Soleimani has worked with “nonstate actors”— a fractious group of militias, religious groups and tribal forces. These groups have grown in importance, confounding traditional statecraft. IRGC and Soleimani exploited them in Iran’s interests. His absence might help in the short term, but it also shows just how deep a challenge the region will pose in the near future.

 

[Ranger25]

Horrible tragically event. Somewhat surprising to see their admonition of guilt but still a tragic mistake.

 

[ngatimozart]

bets are the entire battery staff is punished. Probably a show trial, then executed. None of the higher ups will receive any punishment.

Art

They were just following orders more than likely. Unfortunate tragedy. As others with knowledge {OPPSSG} have discussed in the forum it most likely is an indication of the lack of sophisticated C4ISR. Hard to blame the boots on the ground for an inherent lack of all that is required to make difficult split second decisions in that environment given the circumstances.

Again, another tragic event involving military Tech and Civilian casualties

This is very political in Iran and there appears to be just about open conflict between the two main factions within Iranian politics over this. The new head of the IRCG, Major General Hossein Salami, claimed that the IRCG bought the shoot down to public attention, and claims that the military could of kept hiding it. 'Funeral for public trust': Iran in new crisis after plane crash. But the protests are still continuing and even though the authorities have clamped down, they haven't appeared to be as agressive about it, as they have been in the past. That can and probably will change.

Also new video has surfaced New video shows Ukrainian plane struck by two Iranian missiles claiming to show that two SAMs were fired at the airliner and both hit their target.

 

[Feanor]

This is very political in Iran and there appears to be just about open conflict between the two main factions within Iranian politics over this. The new head of the IRCG, Major General Hossein Salami, claimed that the IRCG bought the shoot down to public attention, and claims that the military could of kept hiding it. 'Funeral for public trust': Iran in new crisis after plane crash. But the protests are still continuing and even though the authorities have clamped down, they haven't appeared to be as agressive about it, as they have been in the past. That can and probably will change.

Also new video has surfaced New video shows Ukrainian plane struck by two Iranian missiles claiming to show that two SAMs were fired at the airliner and both hit their target.

Aren't two missiles per target standard for GBAD? I've seen it in Russian sources repeatedly, but I don't recall reading anything in any other publications.

 

[OPSSG]

Some relevant updates from the region after the 8 Jan 2020 missile strike and disagreeing on a conceptual point

1. Major General Qassem Soleimani, former head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, prior time his assassination, was feared at home and abroad. He held both symbolic and substantive authority. Also, while technically serving under the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, he often eclipsed those at the highest ranks of Iran’s Praetorian Guard. See: The Hill: Soleimani's death creates power vacuum within Iran. While after Soleimani’s death the supreme leader said the Quds Force’s mission “is the same as it was under” his commandership, three areas to watch will be:

(i) the status of the Quds Force within the IRGC’s top brass;​

(ii) the Ayatollah’s decision-making circle; and​

(iii) Iran’s Foreign Ministry’s attempts to assert more control over regional foreign policy.​

2. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani lashed out at the US and Europe in a televised speech on state TV. Rouhani slammed the EU’s “failure to keep it promises” under the 2015 nuclear deal and blamed the U.S. for making the Middle East insecure. See: CNBC: ‘Danger tomorrow’: Iran’s Rouhani makes veiled threat to US and EU troops in Middle East. Further, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision to speak at Friday prayers (17 Jan 2020) shows how seriously the Iranian authorities take local reaction to the accidental downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet. See: NBC: Iran's Ayatollah praises strikes on U.S. bases in rare address.

3. The 82nd Airborne Division is briefing family members of deployed paratroopers to double-check their social media settings and report any strange messages they may receive after some malevolent ones were reported to the command. The division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team deployed to Kuwait in early January as part of an emergency response to the region over heightened tensions with Iran. “Families have reported instances where they have received unsolicited contact with some menacing messaging,” said Lt. Col. Mike Burns, a division spokesman. See: Military Times: Families of deployed paratroopers received ‘menacing’ messages, warned to double-check social media settings.

I, too, think it's a fake. But fakes like this become more common and believable when the US isn't entirely forthcoming with what actually happened.

4. I disagree — let me explain the conceptual difference (and stop here to avoid going further off topic).

5. IMHO, Iranian (or Russian/old Soviet) propaganda is inherently unreliable as it often seeks to use a half truth to mask a total lie — as part of a misinformation campaign. Only ‘useful idiots’ or conspiracy theorists would continue to fall for this obvious propaganda ploy when it is right up the Iranian (or Russian/old Soviet) playbook for misinformation, coming from a Russian language source.

• Russia’s Lyudmila Savchuk, first exposed the story of Russia’s disinformation campaign back in 2014. The journalist and 33-year-old mother of two, Savchuk started noticing websites and social media accounts attacking local opposition activists in her hometown of Saint Petersburg with a frequency she hadn’t seen before. In total, Savchuk spent just two and a half months at the Russian run Internet Research Agency or IRA before she went public about the troll factory in a local newspaper. Her conclusion: IRA was a troll farm, run as a Kremlin project, by a shadowy local restaurateur named Evgeny Prigozhin.

• For background, I note the term ‘useful idiots’ has a long history. For Lenin, as founder of the USSR (aka Soviet empire), it wasn't enough merely to have a communist revolution in Russia. He wanted communism to take over the world, and he cultivated a special corps of ‘useful idiots.’ These were seen as ‘foot soldiers’ to push his revolution in every country — co-opting and subverting democratic processes, fomenting strikes, installing secret armies and, above all, propagandizing according to the Kremlin's dictates.

6. Trump’s problem of credibility with the liberal media is well documented. Like Fox News, Trump’s approach is the same since his 2016 election — speaking to his party faithful, scoring political points for partisan political goals and calling out Western main stream media sources as ‘fake news’ (which is very different in scale and scope vs Russian control of the media and its paid army of online trolls) when they disagree with him — a feature of American polarisation in their political divide. But the unlike Russian sources and the docile Russian press, the media in the US still serves as the fourth estate to ‘fact check’ Trump and embarrass him. In contrast no Russian media outlet can afford to offend Putin: AP NEWS: A glance at Russian journalists attacked or killed.

7. More importantly, the Western media are able to break the news on the 11 injured servicemen from the missile attack in Iraq; and the Watergate scandal showed the power of the fourth estate in the US. That is the crucial difference.

 

[John Fedup]

@OPSSG ...don’t want to stray OT to much here but wrt your point 7, the fourth estate isn’t as influential as it was in the past. While the print media still offers excellent journalism, few take the time to digest this info and by the time the electronic media parses this stuff into sound bites...the stuff doesn’t bite very deep. Furthermore the electronic media has so many formats now that none of them really have the mega influence like the of TV media of the 1950-1990s. If a Walter Cronkite like clone went to Iraq and Afghanistan as Cronkite did during the Vietnam war perhaps America wouldn’t be there now. Payley’s CBS crew from this era was unequalled IMO.