Nagorniy Karabakh

[Feanor]

@Feanor how impartial do you think the Russians will be? They did back the Armenians after all. I don't have any faith in Turkish impartiality because of Erdoğan and the historical enmity that the Turks have against Armenians. They still get really cranky when the Armenian Genocide is mentioned and Erdoğan really blows a fuse.

They've already been far more impartial then I would have thought. And Armenia itself appears to have been far less committed to this conflict then I would have thought. They could have poured far more troops and supplies into the NKR. They would have taken huge losses but would also have drastically slowed the Azeri advance, possibly changing the nature of the conflict. Of course Pashinyan, the current Armenian prime minister, is seen as pro-Western (as pro-Western as one can be in Armenia). Many have speculated that had a more loyal to Russia figure been in office, Armenia would have received far more support. Personally I'm not entirely convinced this is the case.

I really don't know what to expect. Russia and Turkey have butted heads multiple times, sometimes with considerable loss of life (thinking back to the losses Turkey took in Idlib last year). This entire situation seems highly precarious, and I don't see what protects the NKR from losing all independence 5 years down the line with a vague promise of autonomy, as Azerbaijan simply doesn't extend the current agreement. Unless of course Turkish influence drastically shrinks, and Aliev goes back to relying more heavily on Russia.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Russian peacekeepers arrive in the NKR, with BTR-82A APCs, BMP-2 IFVs, Tigr and Lynx armored cars, trucks, and for some reason BM-21 Grad MLRS. The Grads are allegeldy from the 102nd Military Base, Russia's base in Armenia. The UAV teams mentioned earlier appear to be part of the Leer-3 Orlan-10 UAV setup.

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Пашинян о поражении Армении в войне

Пашинян дал интервью Общественному ТВ Армении, где высказал свою позицию по происходящему в Карабахе. 1. Подписанные документ он считает совместным заявлением, а не договором. 2. Основной фактор подписания - если бы он не подписал, то Азербайджан бы взял Степанакерт, а 30 тыс. солдат к юго-востоку…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

The "road of death" near Shushi, where piles of Armenian corpses and destroyed vehicles still remain after the fighting. Warning extremely graphic footage.

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A Turkish flag was seen near the entrance to Shushi, suggesting the presence of Turkish military personnel.

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The former head of Armenia's state security agency was arrested for a plot to assassinate Pashinyan. Given that he's also a major opposition politician it's unclear whether the accusations are based on fact or a convenient excuse. 11 others were also arrested, all members of the political opposition, including 4 heads of opposition political parties. This comes as protests continue in Yerevan.

Бывший глава СНБ Армении готовил убийство Пашиняна

Пашинян и Ванецян. Не все готовы ждать, пока Пашинян сам свалит в туман. Экс-главу СНБ Армении Артура Ванецяна задержали за подготовку убийства Пашиняна. В 2019-2020-м годах, бывший назначенец Пашиняна неоднократно заявлял, что в Армении заправляют структуры связанные с Джорджем Соросом. Бывший…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

The process of exchanging bodies of the slain has begun.

В Карабахе начат процесс обмена телами погибших

После заключения соглашения о о прекращении огня и введении российских миротворцев боевые действия в регионе прекратились после полутора месяца боев. Обмен ведется при участии российской миротворческой миссии, Международного комитета Красного Креста и ГСЧС Нагорного Карабаха.

classic.newsru.com

The remains of an Armenian Elbrus SRBM launcher.

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diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

Footage of the final battle for Shushi from Anna news.

Последний бой за Шушу

Как всегда отличный репортаж военкоров Anna News о завершающих боях Карабахской войны за Шушу. В принципе, из того что выходило на тему боев за Шушу, это наиболее внятное видео. Аннотация: 6 ноября ВС Азербайджана начали штурм города Шуши и только 10 ноября официальные лица Карабаха объявили о том,…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Armenian civilians are leaving regions to be handed over to Azerbaijan in droves, in some cases setting fire to their homes and belongings. I'm not convinced that this is the right move, given that this does the job of ethnic cleansing for Azerbaijan for them.

Армянский исход

В свете необходимости с 15 ноября сдавать территорию Азербайджану, армяне массово покидают Карабах и выезжают в Армению. Некоторые перед выездом сжигают свои дома. Еще видео https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1327047810626285568 https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1327037018724048901 Между тем, наши…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Жители Нагорного Карабаха принялись сжигать дома и имущество

В Нагорном Карабахе жители Кельбаджарского (Карвачарского) района, который должен перейти под контроль Азербайджана, поджигают свое имущество, чтобы не сдавать азербайджанцам, сообщают информационные агентства.

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According to Armenia, Russia and Armenia have set up a no fly zone over the NKR.

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Russian helos arriving in Yerevan to accompany Russian peacekeepers in the NKR.

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[fozraro]

This entire situation seems highly precarious, and I don't see what protects the NKR from losing all independence 5 years down the line with a vague promise of autonomy, as Azerbaijan simply doesn't extend the current agreement.

No worries. Once Russians come, they will never leave. Unless they get driven out by force.

https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/jv1fqv

 

[fozraro]

Footage of Orlan UAV guiding Armenian artillery fire during the last days of the war. Armenia ordered Orlan from Russia during the last couple of weeks of the war. Orlan were used heavily in Syria.

Russian peacekeepers in Davidank guarding the monastery

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1328436136168067074

 

[fozraro]

Overall, Russia is the biggest winner. Now Russia occupies all 3 south Caucasus countries. Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

 

[swerve]

Russia does not occupy those states. It occupies two regions of Georgia, bordering Russia. Most of the country is free of Russian soldiers & hostile to Russia. Nor does it occupy Azerbaijan. It has troops stationed in a very small area of Azerbaijan, connecting Armenia & Nagorniy-Karabakh. It doesn't even occupy Armenia.

 

[Ananda]

Putin warns Armenia backing out of Nagorno-Karabakh deal would be 'suicidal'

Putin says any move to leave Russian-backed ceasefire with Azerbaijan would be huge mistake

www.theguardian.com

Putin warning to Armenian on not backing away from cease fire deal. Seems he give this warning to the Armenian Opposition, not to the current government.

 

[Feanor]

In this last war the big spotlight has been on UAS, but according to materials recently published in Azerbaijan, they flew 600 combat sorties with manned aircraft and even lost an Su-25 (something that apparently slipped by me).

ВВС Азербайджана совершили более 600 боевых вылетов во время Второй Карабахской войны

Согласно опубликованному азербайджанским ресурсом Haqqin.az материалу , летчики военно-воздушных сил Азербайджана совершили более 600 боевых вылетов во время Второй Карабахской войны с 27 сентября по 9 ноября 2020 года. При этом был потерян только один штурмовик Су-25, сбитый армянскими силами…

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[JohnWolf]

Azerbaijan certainly emerges as the strongest of the 3 Caucasus nations, but they were in the superior position. Their enclave has official standing and cannot be isolated thanks to Turkish (and possibly Iranian) involvement. The Armenian enclave was always a little fuzzy and totally surrounded by hostile territory. Without clear military superiority or full Russian sponsorship they never had a chance.

Russia may think of itself as a winner here, but Turkey lead by mad-man Edrogan will feel bolder now and probably be more difficult to deal with next time around.

 

[ngatimozart]

Azerbaijan certainly emerges as the strongest of the 3 Caucasus nations, but they were in the superior position. Their enclave has official standing and cannot be isolated thanks to Turkish (and possibly Iranian) involvement. The Armenian enclave was always a little fuzzy and totally surrounded by hostile territory. Without clear military superiority or full Russian sponsorship they never had a chance.

Russia may think of itself as a winner here, but Turkey lead by mad-man Edrogan will feel bolder now and probably be more difficult to deal with next time around.

I understand that you are a newbie here but calling Erdoğan a madman devalues your response. Yes he's following a path self aaggrandisment and sees himself as Sultan Recep First of His Name, Sultan of the New Ottoman Empire. But it doesn't make him a madman. We could, if we so desired, label the current POTUS as a madman but we don't, and I could argue the reasons why, but I won't because it's counterproductive and against the rules because its politics.

Erdoğan is walking a tightrope between the EU, NATO, and Russia, which as time goes by will become more treacherous for him and he's bound to fall off it. But he has changed Turkey whether we like it or not and I think that he's broken the hold that the military has over the country. If he's succeeded in that and gradually moves Turkey from a secular state to a more religious state then Turkey will not revert back to the state that Ataturk formed and which survived until Erdoğan took over.

 

[JohnWolf]

I understand that you are a newbie here but calling Erdoğan a madman devalues your response. Yes he's following a path self aaggrandisment and sees himself as Sultan Recep First of His Name, Sultan of the New Ottoman Empire. But it doesn't make him a madman. We could, if we so desired, label the current POTUS as a madman but we don't, and I could argue the reasons why, but I won't because it's counterproductive and against the rules because its politics.

Erdoğan is walking a tightrope between the EU, NATO, and Russia, which as time goes by will become more treacherous for him and he's bound to fall off it. But he has changed Turkey whether we like it or not and I think that he's broken the hold that the military has over the country. If he's succeeded in that and gradually moves Turkey from a secular state to a more religious state then Turkey will not revert back to the state that Ataturk formed and which survived until Erdoğan took over.

Understood. I called him that for all of the above, and it sounds good when you say it aloud. That, and i have seen what he has allowed to be done to the memorials at Gallipoli ... which is unforgivable in my opinion.
But, point taken, and if this site is kept free of politics, that can only be a good thing!

 

[ngatimozart]

Understood. I called him that for all of the above, and it sounds good when you say it aloud. That, and i have seen what he has allowed to be done to the memorials at Gallipoli ... which is unforgivable in my opinion.
But, point taken, and if this site is kept free of politics, that can only be a good thing!

As a matter of interest what has he supposed to have done to what memorials at Gallipoli?

 

[JohnWolf]

As a matter of interest what has he supposed to have done to what memorials at Gallipoli?

I said allowed, not trying to say he went out there with a hammer and did it himself -

Turkish Government destroys Anzac monument

Anzac cove memorial defaced by the Turkish Government, stripping the inscription.

www.nzherald.co.nz

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

A closer look at the Bayraktar TB2 unmanned air vehicle.
The language of Azerbaijan is really similar to Turkish.

Azerbaijan releases video of Bayraktar TB2 UAV – Alert 5

alert5.com

 

[ngatimozart]

A Modern War Institute (West Point, US Army) discussion on the Battle of Shusha during the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh War. The successful Azerbaijani capture of the city forced the Armenian acceptance of rather unfavourable terms. The paper discusses some of the history of the city's changes of ownership over the centuries, the reasons for the Azerbaijani success, and the learnings from it. It's early days yet and not all learnings have been identified.

The Battle of Shusha City and the Missed Lessons of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War - Modern War Institute

There has been no shortage of attention paid to the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Commentary and analysis have produced a range of claims about what the six-week-long war means for the […]

mwi.usma.edu

 

[OPSSG]

A Modern War Institute (West Point, US Army) discussion on the Battle of Shusha during the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh War. The successful Azerbaijani capture of the city forced the Armenian acceptance of rather unfavourable terms. The paper discusses some of the history of the city's changes of ownership over the centuries, the reasons for the Azerbaijani success, and the learnings from it. It's early days yet and not all learnings have been identified.

The Battle of Shusha City and the Missed Lessons of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War - Modern War Institute

There has been no shortage of attention paid to the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Commentary and analysis have produced a range of claims about what the six-week-long war means for the […]

mwi.usma.edu

A city as a strategic and tactical objective to be taken under fire from defenders equipped with armour — not an easy fight but this was planned.

 

[Feanor]

There is another flare-up, this time on the Armenian border proper. Armenia has requested Russian military aid per bilateral agreements. It's currently unclear who started this particular round of fighting, both sides are blaming the other. However it's important to note that Armenia is definitely the weaker side and without Russian aid, they will likely suffer greater losses, and even lose ground. On the flip side Armenia is a CSTO member, in addition to their 1997 bilateral agreements with Russia, and an actual Azeri attack on Armenia itself could trigger serious consequences.

On the flip side Russia is in the uncomfortable position of having to potentially go to war with Azerbaijan with almost nothing to gain. Direct confrontation with Russia would push Azerbaijan deeper into Turkish orbit, and is potentially risky, as Azerbaijan has not only shown itself capable of using relatively sophisticated modern UAS to defeat traditional military formations, but also has direct support from Turkey.

Армения просит военной помощи у России

В связи с вторжение Азербайджана на территорию Армении, Армения официально запросила у России военной помощи согласно договору 1997-го года, который обязывает Россию оказать военную помощь в случае угрозы территориальной целостности и суверенитету Армении. Пока что запрос сделан устно, но как…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Armenia Seeks Russian Military Aid in New Escalation With Azerbaijan - The Moscow Times

Armenia said Tuesday it is appealing for Russia’s military aid in the worst fighting with its arch-foe Azerbaijan since the end of last year's war over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Feanor]

Fighting has stopped (according to Armenia) after phone negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russian mediation. The details of the situation remain murky.

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For losses so far the Armenian side has lost 12 as prisoners, and an abandoned truck. There is certainly more that isn't being disclosed.

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Azerbaijan allegedly lost a small number of vehicles, though the claims are Armenian and the footage is hard to make out.

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There is also a video of Azeri artillery firing.

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And apparently Turkish UAVs were spotted active nearby.

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We currently have two narratives of this, one from the Azeri side claims a provocation by Armenian forces that entered Azerbaijan territory, the other from the Armenian side claims an attack by Azeri forces. The facts as is are inconclusive.

EDIT Oryx blog has done a summary for us too. Armenian side admits 12 POVs, 1 KIA, and claims Azerbaijan has occupied 41 sq. kms of Armenia proper in the past 6 months. No word on POVs or KIAs from the Azeri side, but they appear to have lost 4 vehicles, including an armored car, 2 unknown vehicles, and a truck. The Armenian side lost just the truck, abandoned. The Azeri side claims Armenian forces attacked across the border but were surrounded and captured.

Armenia-Azerbaijan November 2021 Border Clash: Losses Documented

www.oryxspioenkop.com

 

[Ananda]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-16/casualties-reported-in-clashes-on-armenia-azerbaijan-border

Just add English version from Western media. Looking toward Azerbaijan-Turkish media and online sites (which off course blame it on Armenian), the issue of corridor between Armenian Proper and what's left of Armenian control Nagorno Karabach seems getting some issue.

Seems Azerbaijan side think the Armenian still not come on their bargain side. If I'm reading right (after all I use Google translate), that corridor should be reciprocate with Armenian open corridor between Armenian Proper and their enclave Nakhchivan.

Something that I do think Armenian will be hard to do considering it can cut them off from Iran. The one neighbor that symphetises with them.

Well if that the case, this shown the dispute is still not finish, and both of them only in 'injury' time, before next round.

 

[Feanor]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-16/casualties-reported-in-clashes-on-armenia-azerbaijan-border

Just add English version from Western media. Looking toward Azerbaijan-Turkish media and online sites (which off course blame it on Armenian), the issue of corridor between Armenian Proper and what's left of Armenian control Nagorno Karabach seems getting some issue.

Seems Azerbaijan side think the Armenian still not come on their bargain side. If I'm reading right (after all I use Google translate), that corridor should be reciprocate with Armenian open corridor between Armenian Proper and their enclave Nakhchivan.

Something that I do think Armenian will be hard to do considering it can cut them off from Iran. The one neighbor that symphetises with them.

Well if that the case, this shown the dispute is still not finish, and both of them only in 'injury' time, before next round.

That is a part of the issue, and Armenia did undertake to provide a transport corridor to Nakhichevan' as a condition of the current arrangement. It's also one of the few areas of leverage Armenia can have on Azerbaijan to get a compromise on the NKR in a few years when the current agreement is up so I'm not sure why Armenia would sabotage themselves like this.