Polish Land Forces Updates & Discussion

[CheeZe]

I couldn't find a thread on the Polish Land Forces. So I thought I'd create one since I also had some news which I recently found.

It seems that Germany and France have decided to exclude Poland from partaking in the next-generation MBT which they are jointly developing.
Link here

As a result, Poland decided to licence produce 800 Korean K2 Black Panthers. Production is slated to begin in 2023.

I'm not sure I understand the decision-making behind the Polish exclusion. It seems to be a poor decision since Poland is a major part of the current NATO defence plan and they seem interested in a large order. But I'm also not caught up on European politics.

I'm also curious as to the decision-making process which led Poland to quickly decide on the K2. I haven't been able to find any English language sources and I can't read Polish. If anyone can help me there, that'd be appreciated. The K2 is a respectable platform and I mean it no disrespect by questioning the decision-making process. I am more curious as to the criteria which Poland used to make the decision. For example, why not the M1A2 Abrams?

 

[oldsig127]

I couldn't find a thread on the Polish Land Forces. So I thought I'd create one since I also had some news which I recently found.

It seems that Germany and France have decided to exclude Poland from partaking in the next-generation MBT which they are jointly developing.

Link here

There is *nothing* in the linked article suggesting that the Polish hae been excluded from anything, just a report that they will work with Hyundai to develop a new tank for their own Army.

Do you have a link to a report giving the background for this assertion? For the sake of completeness, it should also be quoted.

oldsig

(edit: typos)

 

[John Fedup]

The link doesn’t show a French-German rejection on Polish participation that I can see. Furthermore, my understanding is the next generation tank proposed by France and Germany is still early days. If Poland requires new tanks in a 1-3 year timeframe then a SK purchase makes sense, probably cost competitive, a decent design, and good delivery. Leopards and Abrams are good choices as well but SK may have a significant price and delivery advantage.

 

[John Fedup]

There is *nothing* in the linked article suggesting that the Polish hae been excluded from anything, just a report that they will work with Hyundai to develop a new tank for their own Army.

Do you have a link to a report giving the background for this assertion? For the sake of completeness, it should also be quoted.

oldsig

(edit: typos)

Beat me on the link issue, nothing on Polish rejection.

 

[Feanor]

I'm also curious as to the decision-making process which led Poland to quickly decide on the K2. I haven't been able to find any English language sources and I can't read Polish. If anyone can help me there, that'd be appreciated. The K2 is a respectable platform and I mean it no disrespect by questioning the decision-making process. I am more curious as to the criteria which Poland used to make the decision. For example, why not the M1A2 Abrams?

It appears to be an excellent modern tank with great potential. And being such a major partner, they can get a high degree of localization, as well as a heavily modified variant to suit their needs. They're currently still running around with T-72Ms. I honestly don't think they should wait for the Franco-German 4th gen. Consider that they're also getting Korean chassis for their SP howitzers. It appears that they're happy with their RoK partners.

 

[CheeZe]

Sorry, I think I pasted the wrong link

I don't know how reliable this source is but it's the only English language one I could find.

Edit: I tried looking for the Die Welt article referenced but I can't find it. If I do, I'll add a post with the link

Edit 2: I did find this blog post which seems more credible as an academic source.

 

[Ananda]

South Korea pulls out all the stops to sell K2 Black Panther tank to Poland - Meta-Defense.com

www.meta-defense.fr

Seems this's also another link that says Poland potentially going with K2 due to problem with participation on French-German MBT program.
There's also link within the link that shown that the K2PL (Proposed Poland version) will be slightly heavier than ROK current K2, which potentially increase the weight from 55 to 60+ ton .

 

[Big_Zucchini]

The K2 is really a top notch tank, but its protection is relatively light, particularly on the sides and top. It only makes sense that a reinforced armor would put it in the 60-ton category.

I think a K2PL buy would be a good idea, but if they're going for 800 units, they might want to look for potential buyers as some tanks may have to be withdrawn ~25 years into their service.
That, or invest in climate controlled hangars to keep them in long term storage for an emergency.

 

[CheeZe]

I also foresee problems with keeping to a NATO standard if the Poles go with the K2PL. If the new main gun for NATO tanks is the Rh130, Poland would be stuck using the older (and relatively less effective) 120mm rounds. I don't know how much of an issue that is for NATO planners, however given how much they've tried to streamline logistics, I find it strange that Poland isn't being included in these discussions.

Depending on the K2PL's configuration and Ukraine's acquisitions, they may be able to sell some to Ukraine as second-hand. That is also assuming that Russia hasn't swallowed up Ukraine and that the Ukrainians have the money to buy modern-ish tanks.

Haven't been able to find the Die Welt article.

 

[Feanor]

I also foresee problems with keeping to a NATO standard if the Poles go with the K2PL. If the new main gun for NATO tanks is the Rh130, Poland would be stuck using the older (and relatively less effective) 120mm rounds. I don't know how much of an issue that is for NATO planners, however given how much they've tried to streamline logistics, I find it strange that Poland isn't being included in these discussions.

Depending on the K2PL's configuration and Ukraine's acquisitions, they may be able to sell some to Ukraine as second-hand. That is also assuming that Russia hasn't swallowed up Ukraine and that the Ukrainians have the money to buy modern-ish tanks.

Haven't been able to find the Die Welt article.

I don't think this is a big deal. NATO isn't really standardized on tank ammo with Poland and a few others still operating WarPac 125mm guns. And the 120mm isn't going to disappear any time soon. The franco-german project is slated to enter service in 2035. Assuming this timeline holds, France and Germany won't be phasing out their 3rd gens completely until possibly as late as 2040. Others will likely take even longer.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I also foresee problems with keeping to a NATO standard if the Poles go with the K2PL. If the new main gun for NATO tanks is the Rh130, Poland would be stuck using the older (and relatively less effective) 120mm rounds. I don't know how much of an issue that is for NATO planners, however given how much they've tried to streamline logistics, I find it strange that Poland isn't being included in these discussions.

Depending on the K2PL's configuration and Ukraine's acquisitions, they may be able to sell some to Ukraine as second-hand. That is also assuming that Russia hasn't swallowed up Ukraine and that the Ukrainians have the money to buy modern-ish tanks.

Haven't been able to find the Die Welt article.

The K2 is only one of several platforms South Korea is trying to push into the global market, including Europe. The K9 is a great market success, and part of that success must always include catering to the needs of the customers, the most basic of which are compatibility.
I admit I do not know if the K9 is adopted to NATO standards fully, but it only seems natural that they'll offer that with the K2.

And now I'll expand on what @Feanor said.
The 130mm still has a very long way to go, and there are 4 main factors you need to consider here:
1)Poland needs new and modern tanks now. Not 20 years from now.
2)The 130mm may not be selected after all.
3)Whichever gun is selected, it will only enter service with the next gen Franco-German tank, which shouldn't be sooner than 2035, not accounting for COVID related budget cuts.
4)Poland plans to buy that tank anyway, likely to replace the K2PL in service. In that case, no need to rush to be a launch customer.

And as a little bonus, there's nothing that really prevents a redesign of some K2 turret components to fit a 130mm gun or higher.

 

[CheeZe]

Poland Takes Step to Procure Armed Gryf UAVs - Defence24.com
More Poprad VSHORAD Systems for the Polish Armed Forces - Defence24.com

Poland is taking steps to increase its military capabilities. Armed drones and improved SAMs. I don't know how much of an increase in capability the new SAMs are, but they do sound impressive against helicopters. I don't think they're meant to intercept high altitude planes.

 

[CheeZe]

Couldn't find an appropriate Missile thread for this to go in so I guess I'll pop this here.

IBCS in Poland: yesterday, today, tomorrow - Defence24.com

It seems that IBCS has gone into active duty in Poland alongside the Patriot missile system. I'm not well-read up on missile systems/networking and how they cooperate so I can't speak to the pros and cons.

I do like the trends by the Poles to modernize and how seriously they are taking the effort. As a funny aside, I did some basic internet searches, I saw some pro-Russian English sites saying how all American developed missile systems were useless against modern Russian missiles and Poland was wasting its money. Not going to post the links since I didn't actually read beyond the click-bait headlines and I don't want to send readers to such nonsense. I think Defence24 is a reliable source for Polish defence news, but I can stop using them as a source if someone can demonstrate why they aren't credible.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Defence24, at least in its English version, is a credible source. Most likely the Polish version is just more frequently updated and written by the same people.
American IAMD are effective, but propaganda will be propaganda. Russian media, being far less objective than the professional internal debates within the Russian armed forces, like to say how their systems have a longer range and how their radars are bigger and all, but forget that their systems are just structured differently in terms of engagement tiers.
Good thing those who are relevant in their army know otherwise.

 

[CheeZe]

Some Polish Land Forces news:

Kaczyński: Poland in Need of A Rapid Expansion of Its Military Capabilities - Defence24.com
Poland's Deputy PM wants to improve their existing systems and platforms.

Part of that now seems to include adding the M1 Abrams as a contender to replace their old Soviet-era tanks.
Abrams MBTs Are Among the Proposals for the Polish New Generation Tank - Defence24.com

It seems that the Leopard 2, the K2, and the Abrams are the three designs which the Poles are considering. I don't know the criteria as I had thought they'd settled on the K2. But it seems previous sources linked may be inaccurate.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Indeed Poland needs to expand its military capabilities, and serve as an example to many.
The 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union was simultaneously a sigh of relief for the world, and a catalyst for new threats to emerge while the west went into a deep slumber.
Since the digital revolution, the world went into a state of constant acceleration, and every successful process relies on a great deal of momentum.
This killing of momentum for much of the west was how new threats emerged - those not opposed to the USSR saw no reason to stop the arms race.

Every country that is serious about its defense should invest in:

• Inter-war ops
• Localize production of technologically vulnerable items as much as possible
• Systems' test and deep analysis and maintenance capabilities
• Sponsorship of local defense companies
• Army-industry integration to maintain development of every item
• Slow but steady growth and development in key areas

Thankfully, the civilian industries can help armies regain much of the lost momentum. And since the former doesn't lose momentum, or only small amounts and very rarely, armed forces that strive to stay ahead, must integrate themselves with civilian industries as well.
Unfortunately, the terrible 9/11 terror attack, caused a chain of events that led to something akin to loss of momentum - many armies switched direction and focused on COIN, using that momentum in ways that were at times productive for the current course, and sometimes destructive.

Poland has done the right step in its Wisla IAMD program by putting an emphasis on the IBCS and demanding to squeeze into an American production slot, and then emphasized a Made in Poland approach.

Poland can make a very correct, or very bad decision in the tank program. All proposed tanks are excellent - but in the end, one has to offer the best industrial cooperation. It would be wrong for Poland to choose a winning design for its technical merits.

Vendor variation, mutual investment, production share, development share, software access (directly related to development share), and marketing rights, will all play a dominant role, or should play, and therefore if we see a competition Australia-style then that would not be a good sign at all,


In my opinion.

 

[Feanor]

Some Polish Land Forces news:

Kaczyński: Poland in Need of A Rapid Expansion of Its Military Capabilities - Defence24.com
Poland's Deputy PM wants to improve their existing systems and platforms.

Part of that now seems to include adding the M1 Abrams as a contender to replace their old Soviet-era tanks.
Abrams MBTs Are Among the Proposals for the Polish New Generation Tank - Defence24.com

It seems that the Leopard 2, the K2, and the Abrams are the three designs which the Poles are considering. I don't know the criteria as I had thought they'd settled on the K2. But it seems previous sources linked may be inaccurate.

In my opinion the Abrams would be the worst choice for Poland. I think the proposal for a mass-buy of K2s with localized production is the better choice, especially if they want that ToT and localization. The Leo-2 is a good choice if they want to match it with their existing Leo fleet. Remember, Poland is/was a tank manufacturer in its own right, making T-72s during and immediately after the Cold War, and even creating their own T-72 upgrade, the PT-91, which itself has seen some export success. The K2PL could piggy-back off of that, and allow Polish firms to have participation in the project.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I don't think the US would necessarily refuse a Polish request for ToT and local production.
All 3 have something good to offer:

• Leopard - already used by Poland, so parts commonality to some extent.
• Abrams - used by the US, the earliest responder to a Polish crisis in time of need, so easiest way to adapt to new tanks if wartime resupply is provided.
• K2 - Poland already a user of Hanwha's K9. Hanwha itself only makes sub systems for the K2, so Hyundai-Rotem has a higher incentive to offer greater industrial support - which is what I think really matters.

And all 3 will have something to offer regarding future tank and AFV projects, if Poland remains adamant.

 

[Feanor]

I don't think the US would necessarily refuse a Polish request for ToT and local production.
All 3 have something good to offer:

• Leopard - already used by Poland, so parts commonality to some extent.
• Abrams - used by the US, the earliest responder to a Polish crisis in time of need, so easiest way to adapt to new tanks if wartime resupply is provided.
• K2 - Poland already a user of Hanwha's K9. Hanwha itself only makes sub systems for the K2, so Hyundai-Rotem has a higher incentive to offer greater industrial support - which is what I think really matters.

And all 3 will have something to offer regarding future tank and AFV projects, if Poland remains adamant.

The US is notorious for limiting ToT. And the M1 is out of production. I supposed for a big enough order they would restart production, but it would likely be very expensive. I'm assuming they want the M1A2, not the M1A1.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Exactly because of closed production they may offer ToT and Polish production. OTOH, it may also be the excuse NOT to do so.
Sometimes you gotta break your own rules.
Poland has been a tough nut when it comes to arms imports. For the US it could be an all or nothing deal.
General Dynamics has European presence. Surely Poland can convince them to set up in Poland and get the approval to start producing Abrams tanks.