I would also be worried about the capability existing for peacetime too. The longer those fighters are kept in service, the more likely significant fatigue and cracking is going to occur. If a catastrophic failure were to occur during flight, like a fighter suffering a mid-air breakup, especially over a populated area, that would likely force CANGov to order a fleet wide grounding while emergency inspections are done. We have already observed the USAF order temporary fleet groundings for the F-15C due to sudden aircraft losses. I could easily see scenarios where the RCAF suddenly finds itself without an airworthy fighter fleet for days or weeks at a time, while 30+ year old fighters have to be individually inspected in detail to ensure their structural integrity.
After some digging it does seem the survivability upgrades to the CF-18 have been pretty modest to date. The chaff and flare dispensers were upgraded to the ALE-47 and it seems like the CF-18 uses ALQ-126B and ALQ-162 jammers while the recent FMS purchase request includes Improved Tactical Air Launched Decoys.
As you point out, the timing is going to be critical to concerns about survivability, capability, and sustainability. The plan isn't to have the CF-18 be the RCAF's primary fighter by the 2030s. The purchase of 18 RAAF F-18s may have been contrived at the time but it's now going to be needed to allow flight hours to be extended across more airframes. The purchase also included 7 extra F-18 for spares. No doubt the 36 airframes in best condition out of the 94 operational will be the ones undergoing the HEP Phase 2 upgrades. The first CF-18 replacement aircraft is supposed to delivered in 2025 at the same time as these 36 HEP Phase 2 CF-18s reach FOC so these upgraded CF-18 aren't supposed to defer the need for the CF-18 replacement aircraft but serve alongside them until the last replacement aircraft arrives. Non-upgraded CF-18s will presumably begin retiring soon after 2025 to serve as parts for the upgraded CF-18s. So for missions in contested environments in the late 2020s, it should be the CF-18 replacements that will be deployed rather than the upgraded CF-18s. That's supposed to be the plan anyways.
ottawacitizen.com
The way I read that DSCA news release, I interpreted that to mean that the RCAF's Future Fighter Capability Program could start deliveries as soon as 2025, and would continue through until 2035 at which point all the legacy RCAF fighters would be retired.
news.usni.org
The fastest CF-18 replacement is likely the Super Hornet since the USN recently announced they're cancelling their Super Hornet orders starting FY2022 so a Canadian contract signed in 2022 could probably go into production right away with no competition for production slots and in fact would be exactly what Boeing needs to keep the production line open. Hopefully someone in Canadian government figures out to use this as a negotiating advantage.
I think negotiating the contract is likely happening in parallel. There wouldn't have been much risk the State Dept would refuse the FMS and Congressional approval is pretty perfunctory where the deal can go ahead if Congress doesn't respond within 15 days of notification and it's already been 6 days.
Delivery of SHornets would depend on how else (if anyone) also places orders for them and when. If Canada bites the bullet and make a decision before 2022, then a timely delivery of SHornets would be more likely. My personal preference would be for an interim buy of SHornets or even better would be two squadrons worth of Growlers which could fulfill some of the fighter aircraft needs while the actual long-term fighter replacement continues. This would also be a better option from my POV than attempting further upgrades to an aged fighter fleet that has already seen three decades of service.
I do not doubt that contract negotiations are already underway. One of my concerns is that AFAIK they still typically take some time to actually hammer out, particularly if/when offsets have to get factored in. One thing which would be interesting to know is whether or not the APG-79(V)4 is built to order, or if enough modules are already slotted for production that an RCAF order could just get tacked on. If they are built to order and it ends up taking six months to a year or more for the negotiations to be completed and a contract signed that would just push out the date at which the upgrades could start that much further. This is also assuming that Canada does not have another change of gov't which ends up cancelling a signed defence contract. OTOH that drastic an action might enable the RCAF to get a real replacement for the Classic Hornets sooner but stopping some of the delays.
www.flightglobal.com
defence-blog.com
news.usni.org
I don't believe Kuwait has received any of it's 28 Super Hornets yet and will receive 24 over the next year with the entire order completed by 2022. The first of the USN's 78 Block III Super Hornets was just delivered and deliveries will end in April 2024. So the current order book is 106 Super Hornets from ~mid-2020 to ~mid 2024 for a current production rate of 26.5 planes/year. It looks like while German requirements call for 45 Super Hornets they won't formally decide on the order until 2022-2023. If Canada can stay on schedule, a Super Hornet bid win announced in 2021 with contract signed in 2022 should be ahead of the Germans. The main risk seems to be from what Finland and Switzerland decide. Boeing previously indicated in 2017 they can scale to 3-4/month to accommodate international orders so there is flexibility there.
raytheon.mediaroom.com
Based on the USMC experience, they first selected the APG-79(V)4 in January 2019, the contract wasn't signed until March 2020, and deliveries are beginning this year. That seems to indicate either the APG-79(V)4 can be built and delivered within several months of a signed contract or Raytheon is willing to begin production in absence of a contract. So if production rate can be increased or the USMC agrees to share production, the RCAF selecting it in 2020 could allow for first deliveries by the end of 2021. Otherwise deliveries should begin in 2022 after the USMC's order. Either way, the proposed IOC in 2023 seems realistic.
Agree, Gripen is out, regardless of where it is assembled. With no production line and Bombardier now consolidating its aerospace operations along with NORAD requirements, it simply isn’t an option IMO.
I suggest that you read back through this thread to see why the Gripen isn't a suitable acquisition for the RCAF. Yes economics and politics play their part, but you also have to have the right platform for the capability that you are requiring. It's a bit like taking a a knife to a gunfight if you get it wrong.
Canada isn't fighting any country. Canada hasn't fought a war since WW2. Canada don't need spend money on air force. And that's precisely the case. No way Canada will spend money on expensive planes like F-35 or Super Hornet.
l guess you haven’t heard about Korea or Afghanistan.
Or the Desert Storm, Odyssey Dawn, or Inherent Resolve. All of which had Canadian fighter involvement.
Really. I think that you need to read your history and actually do some proper research. The Korean War a very minor skirmish, now I've heard everything thing. So I suppose, according to you, WW2 was just a police action.
The F-35B is the Harrier replacement VSTOL variant not a 2 Seat OCU Variant of the F-35A, there is no 2 seat F-35, Trg will be done in Simulators then straight into the Single Seat Aircraft. Canada’s original requirement was for a all F-35A fleet.