You're certainly on the money with the stand-off capabilities... it seems logical to me to assume we all pretty much agree one reason the P8 was chosen over other proven MPA options was that it slots nicely into a 5-eyes operation, especially wrt RAAF & USN. There's a number aspects to that... sensor capabilities; data handling; and RPA control etc... all of which can be networked AIUI. Another part is likely to be weapons... and I know the NZDF looks to be going with P3-K2 status-quo, but I put money on the longer term intention is that will change over time.Two things. While I agree that sending a P-8 into contested airspace, unless there really was no other option available, would be foolish, the potential capabilities (assuming it was suitably kitted and armed... yes I know what is can mean to assume) might not put a P-8 into a contested space.
I am particularly thinking of if hostile vessels threatening NZ's SLOC. The sensors on a P-8 could potentially detect hostile naval vessels from 200 n miles away, which should be well outside the engagement range of a vessel's air defences. If the P-8 was armed with standoff AShM, of which there are several possibilities, that could permit engagement of threats to the SLOC.
As for the pollies and bureaucrats needing to pull their heads out of the sand, I tend to disagree on that too. I suspect (strongly, given the smell) that they need to pull their heads out of a part of their own anatomy and not sand...
So how possible is a scenario where the RNZAF could work with the RAAF where the latter was able to facilitate provision of weapons training in stand-off weapons for NZ? Could this possibly even extend to the point where 5sqn do all such training in Aussie with NZ $$$ contributions to cover purchase of a enough such weapons to allow annual live firing etc... enough to retain currency? This would likely be a more cost-effective and, dare I say it, more palatable option that keeps such weapons training largely out of direct view of the whingers in NZ, whilst allowing 5sqn to develop such a capability. Yes granted having no stocks of our own has a bunch of limitations, but purchasing weapons is a lot more straight forward & quicker if the heat starts coming on and has far less lead times that trying to introduce a new capability from scratch.
That then brings me to my next point, about using the P8 to protect NZs SLOC. Those SLOC stretch a fair distance away from NZ itself and in doing so are, in many places, the same SLOC of concern to other nations, particularly Aussie. So say NZ does indeed find a way to get and maintain currency in stand-off weapons on the P8, when the heat goes on somewhere, could small stocks be ordered fairly easily, probably as a tag-on to an RAAF order who may be facing the same concern for their SLOC?
It is perfectly logical then that if those SLOC were threatened the RNZAF would look to deploy a P8 overseas to an area closer to the threat source where combined with RAAF and others NZ would be seen to be a highly visible component of a joint operation well prepared and sending a clear message of intent with respect to the security of those SLOC.
Which is ultimately a long-winded way of saying yes I think you're right to suggest the NZ P8 could well end up armed with stand-off weapons and providing the core element of defence of NZs SLOC... that however doesn't automatically suggest it will be on it's own based out of Ohakea. I would suggest that's more likely to happen to the North and or North-East of Australia under an umbrella of significant assets from the ADF, amongst others. That is the area where airspace is likely to be more-contested... as are SLOC, constrained as they are by land masses.