It's a Russian system, so they would've been trained by Russians and if it's Russian SOP, then that's how the Iranians would've been trained.
Escalation in Iraq
- Thread starter Feanor
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- #82
I made the same assumption when I first came across implications that there were two missiles, but since the it seems to have become quite an issue, with even reports that the Iranians are arresting people who are spreading the video.
В Иране начались аресты по делу о сбитом украинском самолете
Hence why I'm wondering what the significance is.
If it's the IRGC doing the arresting, this could be why. Why did Iran lie about shooting down the Ukrainian plane? The author claims that it was an IRGC unit that did the shootdown and Rouhani didn't know for 3 days that it was an Iranian SAM battery responsibly for the catastrophe. That would explain the arrests including those who videoed the shoot down and those who posted it and spread it online. It may also explain a goodly part of the anger of the population against the IRCG, Rouhani and the theocracy.
Iran and the US came closer to war in the Iranian missile attack on 8 Jan 2020 than what has been reported thus far. As more facts emerge, it clearly shows Trump’s officials were engaging in active spin control after the missile strike.
- A US defense official speaking on background confirmed that 11 Americans had been sent out of Iraq for treatment. “As a standard procedure, all personnel in the vicinity of a blast are screened for traumatic brain injury, and if deemed appropriate, are transported to a higher level of care. At this time, eight individuals have been transported to Landstuhl, and three have been transported to Camp Arifjan,” said the official. Capt. Bill Urban, spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which oversees all military in the region, confirmed those details in a similar on-the-record statement emailed to reporters.
- US troops had been alerted to the attack hours in advance, and told to head for bunkers 15 minutes before the missiles began to strike on 8 Jan 2020. Many however, manned exposed positions, including at least one group of drone operators who stayed in an above-ground building to get their drones aloft and avoid ground damage. The leader of an Army drone team told NPR that he was “knocked off his feet by the blast.” Others told the New York Times that missiles damaged the building they were in.
- The images from Iraq paint a picture of precision: The first satellite imagery of the aftermath of the Iranian strike on Ayn al-Asad Air Base in Iraq highlights Iran's improved ability to accurately strike distant targets with its extensive missile arsenal. The pictures, released by imaging company Planet Labs on Jan. 8, show that Iran can chalk up its strike as a success even without inflicting U.S. casualties. What's more, they also show how Iran sought to skirt a delicate line in exacting public retribution while also avoiding an escalation that would lead to outright war. See Stratfor: How Iran's Missile Attack on American Bases Showcases Its Weapons' Accuracy
- A US defense official speaking on background confirmed that 11 Americans had been sent out of Iraq for treatment. “As a standard procedure, all personnel in the vicinity of a blast are screened for traumatic brain injury, and if deemed appropriate, are transported to a higher level of care. At this time, eight individuals have been transported to Landstuhl, and three have been transported to Camp Arifjan,” said the official. Capt. Bill Urban, spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which oversees all military in the region, confirmed those details in a similar on-the-record statement emailed to reporters. See Defenseone: Eleven US Troops Were Injured in Jan. 8 Iran Missile Strike
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #85
There's a document of unclear authenticity floating around the internet, claiming to be a FOIA request response that states the US has 285 casualties, 139 dead and 146 injured. It's addressed to Bennie Thompson, a member of the US House of Representatives, whose office has apparently stated that they have not received any such document. The numbers themselves look a bit odd in terms of the proportions of dead to wounded, and they are rather high, suggesting that this is a fake. But the lack of transparency on the part of the US gives more weight to various alternative theories.
Потери на базе Айн-аль-Ассад
Потери на базе Айн-аль-Ассад
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
IMO even if the numbers were cut in half this level of causalities would have prompted a robust retaliation from the US so fake news is very likely here.
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- #87
I, too, think it's a fake. But fakes like this become more common and believable when the US isn't entirely forthcoming with what actually happened.
Some relevant updates from the region after the 8 Jan 2020 missile strike and disagreeing on a conceptual point
1. Major General Qassem Soleimani, former head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, prior time his assassination, was feared at home and abroad. He held both symbolic and substantive authority. Also, while technically serving under the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, he often eclipsed those at the highest ranks of Iran’s Praetorian Guard. See: The Hill: Soleimani's death creates power vacuum within Iran. While after Soleimani’s death the supreme leader said the Quds Force’s mission “is the same as it was under” his commandership, three areas to watch will be:
2. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani lashed out at the US and Europe in a televised speech on state TV. Rouhani slammed the EU’s “failure to keep it promises” under the 2015 nuclear deal and blamed the U.S. for making the Middle East insecure. See: CNBC: ‘Danger tomorrow’: Iran’s Rouhani makes veiled threat to US and EU troops in Middle East. Further, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision to speak at Friday prayers (17 Jan 2020) shows how seriously the Iranian authorities take local reaction to the accidental downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet. See: NBC: Iran's Ayatollah praises strikes on U.S. bases in rare address.
3. The 82nd Airborne Division is briefing family members of deployed paratroopers to double-check their social media settings and report any strange messages they may receive after some malevolent ones were reported to the command. The division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team deployed to Kuwait in early January as part of an emergency response to the region over heightened tensions with Iran. “Families have reported instances where they have received unsolicited contact with some menacing messaging,” said Lt. Col. Mike Burns, a division spokesman. See: Military Times: Families of deployed paratroopers received ‘menacing’ messages, warned to double-check social media settings.
5. IMHO, Iranian (or Russian/old Soviet) propaganda is inherently unreliable as it often seeks to use a half truth to mask a total lie — as part of a misinformation campaign. Only ‘useful idiots’ or conspiracy theorists would continue to fall for this obvious propaganda ploy when it is right up the Iranian (or Russian/old Soviet) playbook for misinformation, coming from a Russian language source.
7. More importantly, the Western media are able to break the news on the 11 injured servicemen from the missile attack in Iraq; and the Watergate scandal showed the power of the fourth estate in the US. That is the crucial difference.
1. Major General Qassem Soleimani, former head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, prior time his assassination, was feared at home and abroad. He held both symbolic and substantive authority. Also, while technically serving under the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, he often eclipsed those at the highest ranks of Iran’s Praetorian Guard. See: The Hill: Soleimani's death creates power vacuum within Iran. While after Soleimani’s death the supreme leader said the Quds Force’s mission “is the same as it was under” his commandership, three areas to watch will be:
(i) the status of the Quds Force within the IRGC’s top brass;
(ii) the Ayatollah’s decision-making circle; and
(iii) Iran’s Foreign Ministry’s attempts to assert more control over regional foreign policy.
2. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani lashed out at the US and Europe in a televised speech on state TV. Rouhani slammed the EU’s “failure to keep it promises” under the 2015 nuclear deal and blamed the U.S. for making the Middle East insecure. See: CNBC: ‘Danger tomorrow’: Iran’s Rouhani makes veiled threat to US and EU troops in Middle East. Further, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision to speak at Friday prayers (17 Jan 2020) shows how seriously the Iranian authorities take local reaction to the accidental downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet. See: NBC: Iran's Ayatollah praises strikes on U.S. bases in rare address.
3. The 82nd Airborne Division is briefing family members of deployed paratroopers to double-check their social media settings and report any strange messages they may receive after some malevolent ones were reported to the command. The division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team deployed to Kuwait in early January as part of an emergency response to the region over heightened tensions with Iran. “Families have reported instances where they have received unsolicited contact with some menacing messaging,” said Lt. Col. Mike Burns, a division spokesman. See: Military Times: Families of deployed paratroopers received ‘menacing’ messages, warned to double-check social media settings.
4. I disagree — let me explain the conceptual difference (and stop here to avoid going further off topic).
5. IMHO, Iranian (or Russian/old Soviet) propaganda is inherently unreliable as it often seeks to use a half truth to mask a total lie — as part of a misinformation campaign. Only ‘useful idiots’ or conspiracy theorists would continue to fall for this obvious propaganda ploy when it is right up the Iranian (or Russian/old Soviet) playbook for misinformation, coming from a Russian language source.
- Russia’s Lyudmila Savchuk, first exposed the story of Russia’s disinformation campaign back in 2014. The journalist and 33-year-old mother of two, Savchuk started noticing websites and social media accounts attacking local opposition activists in her hometown of Saint Petersburg with a frequency she hadn’t seen before. In total, Savchuk spent just two and a half months at the Russian run Internet Research Agency or IRA before she went public about the troll factory in a local newspaper. Her conclusion: IRA was a troll farm, run as a Kremlin project, by a shadowy local restaurateur named Evgeny Prigozhin.
- For background, I note the term ‘useful idiots’ has a long history. For Lenin, as founder of the USSR (aka Soviet empire), it wasn't enough merely to have a communist revolution in Russia. He wanted communism to take over the world, and he cultivated a special corps of ‘useful idiots.’ These were seen as ‘foot soldiers’ to push his revolution in every country — co-opting and subverting democratic processes, fomenting strikes, installing secret armies and, above all, propagandizing according to the Kremlin's dictates.
7. More importantly, the Western media are able to break the news on the 11 injured servicemen from the missile attack in Iraq; and the Watergate scandal showed the power of the fourth estate in the US. That is the crucial difference.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
@OPSSG ...don’t want to stray OT to much here but wrt your point 7, the fourth estate isn’t as influential as it was in the past. While the print media still offers excellent journalism, few take the time to digest this info and by the time the electronic media parses this stuff into sound bites...the stuff doesn’t bite very deep. Furthermore the electronic media has so many formats now that none of them really have the mega influence like the of TV media of the 1950-1990s. If a Walter Cronkite like clone went to Iraq and Afghanistan as Cronkite did during the Vietnam war perhaps America wouldn’t be there now. Payley’s CBS crew from this era was unequalled IMO.
In broad strokes, your perspective is valid. In context, I was comparing it to propaganda.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #91
Sorry, I fear there may be a misunderstanding. I'm not arguing that the two are comparable, merely that the lack of transparency gives rise to speculation and even misinformation. I think the best the US can do is be honest about what happened and how.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Civil Aviation Organization of Iran confirms Tor-M1s fired at airliner | Jane's 360
Seems according to Jane's, Iranian military already confirmed the Ukrainian Airlines shot down using TOR-M1 short range mobile system.
Make sense, since this system usually put guarding vital area including Airport. However if this true, then there's serious gap in defense net work that the SAM operators nearby Airport did not know there's Airliners that just took off.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
I would think it is less a 'gap' in the defence network, and more of an illustration on the problems of integration. The system clearly was able to detect and subsequently engage the commercial airliner, what was lacking was the data sets so that the operators knew what it was and that it was permitted, and/or the civil aviation organization in Iran did not know that air ops was supposed to be suspended at the time.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Did the government actually notify Iranian civil aviation authorities to cease operations? Frankly, I am surprised the government and IRG didn’t try to lay all the blame on them.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #95
Updates.
Iraq has demanded withdrawal of all US and coalition forces. This was followed by massive anti-US demonstrations all across Iraq. The protests are fueled by the position of certain Iraqi politicians including Muqtada al-Sadr.
В Ираке начинается кампания за вывод американских войск
Антиамериканские протесты в Ираке
Требования Ас-Садра
Meanwhile the Pentagon has admitted 34 wounded as a result of the Iranian strike. You'll notice the numbers keep growing.
Пентагон признал потери на базе "Айн-аль-Ассад"
3 more unguided rockets landed near the US embassy in Baghdad.
Обстрел посольства США в Багдаде
A map of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/4396751.html
More footage of the US base hit by the strike.
https://parstoday.com/ru/news/middle_east-i108941
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3905764.html
Iraq has demanded withdrawal of all US and coalition forces. This was followed by massive anti-US demonstrations all across Iraq. The protests are fueled by the position of certain Iraqi politicians including Muqtada al-Sadr.
В Ираке начинается кампания за вывод американских войск
Антиамериканские протесты в Ираке
Требования Ас-Садра
Meanwhile the Pentagon has admitted 34 wounded as a result of the Iranian strike. You'll notice the numbers keep growing.
Пентагон признал потери на базе "Айн-аль-Ассад"
3 more unguided rockets landed near the US embassy in Baghdad.
Обстрел посольства США в Багдаде
A map of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/4396751.html
More footage of the US base hit by the strike.
https://parstoday.com/ru/news/middle_east-i108941
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3905764.html
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
No idea, but if the operators of a GBAD system were operating with the assumption that any/all airborne contacts were threats/hostiles to be engaged, then it would be a gross example of a failure to integrate those operational orders into civil aviation operations. That points to a breakdown in command and control.
"Iraq has demanded ...". Are you claiming that the Iraqi govt has demanded the withdrawl of all US and coalition forces? Last time I looked Muqtada al-Sadr is not the Iraqi govt although he leads the largest party in the Parliament. Methinks that your source is somewhat misleading.
The Parliament voted for all foreign troops to leave, however the vote was non binding. 'We want them out': Iraq protesters call for US troops exit. If the Iraqi Prime Minister gives formal notice that the foreign troops must leave forthwith, then that is an entirely different matter. However Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi resigned on 29/11/2019 with Parliament accepting his resignation on 1/12/2019 Parliament approves Iraqi prime minister's resignation. Since then the President has been expected to have asked the largest bloc in Parliament to nominate the new PM. Apparently this involves lots of wrangling and horse trading. As far as I am aware a new PM hasn't been appointed yet.
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- #99
If I understand correctly, Mahdi handed over the request to set up withdrawal mechanisms prior to his resignation being accepted, while still acting in the role. The official US response to this came from the US on Jan 10th, with his resignation being accepted on Jan 12th.
US dismisses Iraq request to work on a troop withdrawal plan
Thanks for your reply and perspective. This is a thread started for sharing updates by you but so far, some of the sources you cite, seem to lack balance. If you are going to post about this topic of a US troop withdrawal request, at least consider providing some background for context:
(i) The last American combat troops left Iraq in December 2011, only to return in 2014 under much more perilous circumstances.
(ii) With Baghdad in danger of falling to the ISIS militants in June 2014, the administration of then-president Barack Obama agreed to send troops to Iraq to assist in an advisory capacity against IS. The deployment was based on diplomatic letters inviting American soldiers into the country and offering them immunity from prosecution under Iraqi law. These so-called diplomatic notes, which are not public, remain the legal basis for the presence of about 5,000 American soldiers in Iraq. These letters or diplomatic notes contain a provision that gives US forces one year to withdraw after they are formally asked by Baghdad to leave.
(iii) A official push by Baghdad to expel US troops may be a protracted process given the state of politics in the country, said Douglas Silliman, a former US ambassador to Iraq who is now the president of the Arab Gulf States Institute. "Iraq's own inability to implement its laws in a timely manner and a clear manner is probably going to push this conversation through 2020, likely into 2021 unless there is a significant development, such as the legitimate selection of a very anti-American prime minister with a parliamentary majority that can back him on this," Silliman said. Moreover, the Iraqi centres of power remain fragmented, with Kurdish and Sunni political parties largely wary of the push to drive out American forces and the government facing an ongoing wave of anti-corruption protests.
(iv) "We're not at a point where the US and Iraq are enemies," said Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Center think-tank in Washington. "We are talking about allies that have differences, and they want to work out these differences in the best way, so they keep their alliance." Hence, the Iraqi government has not formally requested an American military pullout in a legally binding way, Kadhim added. "They asked for negotiators to talk about the terms of withdrawal, which is understood or implied that the Iraqis want the US troops out, but they want to do it amicably."
See: At what point do US troops in Iraq become an occupation force?
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