Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.

[ngatimozart]

@ngatimozart perhaps in this I try to see that the genocide during war 21-22 is happen on both side. Remember Greece also has agenda to eradicate Turks from Thrace and Western Anatolia. Both sides still despised each other, but perhaps Greece are selling their cause better in some Western nation, perhaps more in the English speaking ones.
However talking to some Germans, they seem to see it more neutral in the sense both Greeks and Turks have their own failing. Like in Cyprus, if Greek Nationalist Cypriot did not attack Turkish Cypriot first and have agenda to eradicate Turkish Cypriot from Cyprus, Turkey perhaps will not have an 'excuse' to invade Cyprus.

Thus the chances of Greek attacking Turks in my opinion has similar chances percentage as to Turkish attack Greece.
Also if looking to Turkish forums, or media eventough average Turks did not really like Greeks (and the feeling is mutual to each other), but I don't quite see their negative feeling toward Greeks are more compared to Kurds. Despite Kurds and Turks are both Moeslem, but they see Kurds as terrorist that want to break up Turkish territory. They see Greeks more as dislike due to historical feeling, more like Japanese and Korean looking to each other.

Erdogan possition is not that strong, based on latest election trend. However if average Turkey see NATO and the West does back Greece more than them, then it will only serve Erdogan cause. For that, I see German and French has more incentive to be neutral on any dispute between Turkey and Greece.

@Ananda yes but the Greeks spent centuries under Ottoman domination so pent up fury on the Greek side wouldn't help. Mind you when you look at it, wars have been an ongoing occupation between the Greeks, and Persians for the last 2,600 years and that includes anyone else who occupied the western part ancient Persia, now modern day Turkey. I'm not so sure about the Germans because they've become somewhat annoyed with Erdoğan's politicking amongst the German Turkish population and his attack on the Kurds in Syria will not have gone down well with them. The French, hard to say, but if Erdoğan opens the refugee floodgate to Europe, that would really annoy the French and incense large sections of the French populace no end, and they're excitable at the best of times. I agree Erdoğan's position is not as strong as it used to be, but I wouldn't put it past him to attempt to do something to remain in power come what may.

 

[At lakes]

https://www.navyrecognition.com/ind...amina-naval-base-enters-in-hellenic-navy.html

Ngatimozart in my opinion you are very correct with your prediction of doom and gloom in the Balkans. At a recent naming ceremony for a Greek naval vessel, the President of the Hellenic Republic, Mr Prokopios Pavlopoulos , whilst seeking friendship and good neighbourhood relations with Turkey, he appeared to issue Turkey a stern warning to Turkey, suggesting they respect international law and the Cyprus issue is an international and an EU issue. He also condemned Turkey’s intervention in Syria. He also stated that Greece will defend its legal right to define its Exclusive Economic Zone and that Greece has the active support of the EU, NATO and the US.

 

[ngatimozart]

Turkey has forged an alliance with the internationally recognised govt of Libya. Turkey will provide military support to the govt in the form of weapons and possibly troops. This is part of the agreement that it had reached with Libya over the seabed resources around Cyprus and under the Mediterranean Sea. Trouble for Turkey is that the seabed and gas agreement doesn't meet the legal requirements of UNCLOS and other international treaties, and there an UN arms embargo of Libya, so Erdogan and his cohorts are just showing their arrogance and stubbornness by wishing it so.

Newly Aggressive Turkey Forges Alliance With Libya

 

[Feanor]

Turkey has forged an alliance with the internationally recognised govt of Libya. Turkey will provide military support to the govt in the form of weapons and possibly troops. This is part of the agreement that it had reached with Libya over the seabed resources around Cyprus and under the Mediterranean Sea. Trouble for Turkey is that the seabed and gas agreement doesn't meet the legal requirements of UNCLOS and other international treaties, and there an UN arms embargo of Libya, so Erdogan and his cohorts are just showing their arrogance and stubbornness by wishing it so.

Newly Aggressive Turkey Forges Alliance With Libya

This is quickly turning into Syria 2.0... since Khaftar has his own foreign backers, not limited to Russia, China, and the UAE, but allegedly including players like Britain and France (irony, the UK and RF backing the same Libyan warlord). There have been reports of Russian PMCs in Libya, and he's gotten present in the form of advanced weapons from the UAE... I suspect if things continue, we will be reviving the Libyan thread to discuss that particular mess. It's interesting that Turkey has taken a page from Russia's playbook, using one questionably legitimate side to justify your presence in a muddled conflict. Let's see if they can replicate Russia's success here.

 

[ngatimozart]

This is quickly turning into Syria 2.0... since Khaftar has his own foreign backers, not limited to Russia, China, and the UAE, but allegedly including players like Britain and France (irony, the UK and RF backing the same Libyan warlord). There have been reports of Russian PMCs in Libya, and he's gotten present in the form of advanced weapons from the UAE... I suspect if things continue, we will be reviving the Libyan thread to discuss that particular mess. It's interesting that Turkey has taken a page from Russia's playbook, using one questionably legitimate side to justify your presence in a muddled conflict. Let's see if they can replicate Russia's success here.

Yep, and Erdoğan visited Tunisia on Wednesday to meet with its President to discuss Libya. He confirmed that would evaluate deploying Turkish troops in Libya if so requested by the GNA, adding "... that the Wagner group (Russian mercenaries) had “no connections, nothing” in Libya." Can't see Erdoğan backing down over this, so it's going to get messy.

Turkey's Erdogan discusses Libya ceasefire during surprise Tunisia trip

 

[John Fedup]

...just another reason for Turkey’s NATO termination IMO. As he is already in the Russian camp, the excuse termination will push him towards the Russians is no longer a valid reason for not kicking Turley out.

 

[Feanor]

...just another reason for Turkey’s NATO termination IMO. As he is already in the Russian camp, the excuse termination will push him towards the Russians is no longer a valid reason for not kicking Turley out.

Russia doesn't have much of a "camp". And how exactly is him engaging with the internationally recognized Libyan government a reason to kick him out of NATO?

 

[Ananda]

Russia doesn't have much of a "camp". And how exactly is him engaging with the internationally recognized Libyan government a reason to kick him out of NATO?

In some way, Erdogan behave like De Gaule used to be against US, and UK in NATO.
I know it's not the same, but Erdogan playing to his domestic constituance of National Pride. In that kind of sense, it has similarities with De Gaule.
Difference is French has more political muscle than Turkey, even back then.

Double Detente, the Relations between France and the USSR from 1958 to 1964

If you read this book, in some sense there're similarities on how the French play their cards in NATO toward USSR, and how Erdogan envisions Turkey more independence within NATO.

 

[ngatimozart]

Reuters has reported that Libya's GNA has made a formal request for Turkish air, sea and land military support. This has been confirmed by Al Jazeera who go on to state that it is subject to Parliamentary approval, which Erdogan will submit to Parliament in a Bill on 7/1/20 and that it should pass into law on 8 - 9/1/20.

 

[ngatimozart]

It appears that Erdogan may not always learn from his mistakes. He purged the Gulenist sect because they got to close for comfort and challenged his rule. Now he's placing members of another Turkish Islamist sect in similar postitions in what he had placed the Gulenists all those years ago. Are were going to see history repeat itself?

Erdogan’s Purges Have Replaced One Islamic Sect With Another

 

[ngatimozart]

Cyprus has labelled Turkey a "pirate state" after Turkey is attempting to drill an exploration well in a fourth bloc south of the island. The last time the Turks undertook such an exploration, the drillship was accompanied by to Turkish warships. Cyprus blasts Turkey as ‘pirate state’

 

[John Fedup]

I'm sure Erdogan will be pleased to hear about the possibility of Greece getting F-35s. Looks good on him.

Greece Set to Ratify New Military Deal With United States

 

[Ananda]

I'm sure Erdogan will be pleased to hear about the possibility of Greece getting F-35s. Looks good on him.

Even when Turkey still in F-35 International Consortium, sooner or later Greece will have F-35. Poland now already sign for F-35, the only hinderence for Greece to join F-35 before is their Economic conditions. I think Turkish regime know very well even then, that Greece will have F-35 eventually.

However on domestic side, Turkish Erdogan's regime now selling their countryman..forgot F-35, our aim is not F-35 but TFX.

Homegrown fighter jet to fly with domestic engine by 2029

This is from Malaysian Sabah news online. However it come from Turkish official when they try to sell the potential of Malaysia join TFX. Turkey now trying to sell TFX to several Moeslem nation in middle East, Pakistan, Malaysia..even they offering TFX to Indonesian new Minister of Defence Prabowo when he visit Turkey several weeks ago.

I'm not going to talk on how TFX will come out or try to judge Turkish claim that TFX will be on par with F-35. My points more on how Turkey wants to be more independence on defense policy, thus this more explain their work to achieve more independent defense industry capabilities.

I read few pools on Turkey especially how they view Euro. Before 2010, majority of Turkish people still hope they are going to join EU eventually. However several pools conducted lately already shown those that still hoping for EU ties already in minority and mostly that have that pro Euro opinion live in Istanbul and Turkey Euro side (Eastern Thrace). The rest in Anatolia already want Turkey to look East to Asia. Those in Anatolia feels whatever they do, The rest of Euro will not going to accept them in the account of Greece/Greece Cypriot oppositions. So why bother to look to Euro. They see Turkish future in the East.

This shown, how Erdogan will do more policies that shown independent from Euro and West to take advantage on that sentiment.

 

[StingrayOZ]

This shown, how Erdogan will do more policies that shown independent from Euro and West to take advantage on that sentiment.

I think that really fits into what Turkeys aims are.

I am completely un-surprised that Turkey is now attempting to partner with nations like Malaysia in the TFX. I imagine other potential sales/partners include Indonesia, Pakistan, the smaller kingdoms around Asia and the Middle east.

The whole TFX program was I think the key program since its inception. Stopping the F-35 deliveries just forces its acquisition (the original F-35 work-share also paid for the improved manufacturing capabilities) and also will be used as a sales reason to say Muslim majority nations that are either weak aligned or non-aligned. Plus it gives them a template for partnerships. Signing up Malaysian work share is a smart move, and gives them some additional composite capability and more importantly another avenue for tech to flow through to the program. Countries in the Asia pacific are going to be particularly hard for the US to cold shoulder due to their location in the great power shifts.

 

[Ananda]

up Malaysian work share is a smart move, and gives them some additional composite capability and more importantly another avenue for tech to flow through to the program.

Malaysia do have reasonable advance composite fabrication facilities, especially for aerospace usage. However I do tend to see, Turkey move for marketing TFX to Malaysia, Pakistan or some Middle East rich kingdoms (probably they can get some traction with Qatar, Turkey have more relationship with Qatar compared to UAE or Saudi), is more to gaining more market share and additional development funds.

This is what I tend to see on Turkey drive for more independent Defense Industry in relatively short time. Where's the money coming from ? Despite their increasing tech based on defense industry, this is an area that are very expensive to develop..and Turkey is not really big enough economy to can come out with that kind of fund.

Look on TFX plan on building their own engine compared to KFX that in the beginning already going to used engine that available in the market (F-414). Only delusional Turkish Fan Boys that are still think Turkey has better tech based in aerospace compared to ROK. ROK thus not want to develop their own engine simply due being realistic on how much engine development going to cost.
In the end even those Turkish fan boys acknowledge that the engine program depends on Rolls-Royce tech. However commercially RR will not going to develop that engine with their Tech, if they don't see enough margin they can get. Means this is going to be very expensive endeavors.

Engine is the area that make many nation's that want to have independent Fighter program, got in trouble. If we look China, with their huge economy and industrial base with increasing sophisticated tech progress in aerospace, even they still have problem developing their own engine.
How we see India's Kaveri engine program got so much trouble, then they decided their indigenous fighter program used existing engine in the market after so much money pouring on the engine development. In the end, seems they are going to go with French on using M88 core for Kaveri.

https://m-economictimes-com.cdn.amp...t-engine-project%2Farticleshow%2F71532719.cms

Back to the Turkey TFX, how far Turkish Financial can support this indigenous engine program ? if say down the road RR either want additional development cost or pull the plug thus make Turkey need to go to other sources ? Can Turkey able to keep pouring money ?

Like I said in my previous post, I don't want to discuss how TFX going to turn out, but Turkey should reduce their ambition on TFX, unless they want to sacrifice some of their other ambitious defense program in the benefits of TFX. Just don't see Turkish economy size can support all that in the time table they envisaged.

 

[ngatimozart]

Agree @Ananda , the biggest engine tech problem the Chinese have is not the basic engineering, but the metallurgy of the fan blades and engine cores. They haven't been able to replicate it in its entirity and until they can, or develop their own metallurgy to the same level, they will struggle. They will get there in the end and may not be to far away, but developing the level of metallurgical knowledge and skills required is time consuming and not something that you can do overnight. The Turks will be starting at the beginning and are well behind the South Koreans, Japanese and Chinese.

 

[Ananda]

Agree, and in the case of China even their WS-15 still have problem from what gather. Still with the amount of effort that China already pouring on getting their own Turbofan Core tech, they will get there eventually.
Japan result on their new Turbofan (for F-X) seems indicating they already achieve the standard of US, UK, French and Russian Core's. Considering Japan still have 'edge' over China on certain metallurgy tech, it's expected.

Thus this Turkish claim on their ability by the end of decade to have their own engine will still depend much on Supplier Tech partner (in this case RR). However I do have doubt for Turkey abilities to pour financing on this in the scale of China or even India (which as article in previous posts shown, now they are stop effort on indigenous core and goes to developing one based on Proven core which seems will come from French M-88).

That's what I said in three previous post before. There's some similarities on wanting more independence within NATO between De Gaule and Erdogan. However De Gaule have more Tech and Resources available to achieve that goal, while for Erdogan I still have much doubt on Turkey economic and Tech based to achieve what Gaule able to do in 60's.

On that despite their talk to their domestic constituance on Turkey Defence Industry achievement, how much actually of that projects that can be turned in to sustainable projects, is the question. This is important for Erdogan Regime, since in my opinion their nationalistics' campaign for more Independent Foreign Policy much depends on Turkey abilities to develop their own Military assets in sustainable sense.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I am curious to see how this project progresses. Turkey, unlike China, isn't exactly completely cut off from the west. They invested heavily in setting up capability before getting cold shouldered, so they aren't exactly starting at nothing. They have excellent access to the EU, and there are significant amount of transient workers working in say Germany for example. France for example may not completely cut them off either. Even if the engine isn't completely locally made, they and other partners are likely to get the tech they need or the parts they need. Pure economic size is probably not a good judgement in this particular case because its not fair comparison, Turkey will get access to better/easier access tech than China, they just won't get the F-35 as a turnkey acquisition program.

Also if Turkey is setting themselves up a separate alliance, it will be based on how much success they have. They aren't really intending to fight tier 1 western forces (US, UK etc), more deter some haphazardly equipped forces (Saudis?) and be a major regional power. Coming up with something that is an improvement on the F-16, is probably doable, eventually. But will they get the volume to make it worthwhile? At the end of the day the west has truly global production capabilities. RR and GE have tremendous capabilities based of commercial and large scale military projects, with orders in the thousands and hundreds of thousands of flight hours, access to global tech and support and a hundred years of trade secrets and knowledge.

As far as the west (US?) is concerned, Qatar (or someone else) buying a Turkish plane (with west based engines) is probably a lot better than Qatar buying a Chinese or Russian plane.

 

[Ananda]

economic size is probably not a good judgement in this particular case because its not fair comparison, Turkey will get access to better/easier access tech than China, they just won't get the F-35 as a turnkey acquisition program.

True that Turkey so far has more access to Western Tech or potential partnership with Western source. However it's not always definite. Look of their Altay MBT, the moment German hold the engine transfer, the program face delay. Turkey now try to find another source, but I bet it will cost them more as Altay from beginning is already build for using MTU Engine.

This's what I mean with Turkish ambition for more Independent Defense Industry (which in turn), support their more Independent Foreign Policy vis a vis to NATO/West mainstream policies.
Like in my previous post where I compared Erdogan aim with what DeGaule 'independence' policies movement within NATO in the 50's and 60's..the problem with Turks compared to French even in that era was and still is the level of French Tech and Economics based then even relative compared to what Turkey have currently.

The French can get most of their need mostly from their own Industrial and Tech based, while despite all the progress of Turkish Defense Industry, many key components still can't be source internally and have to rellied on foreign partners.
And this is not problem for Turkey alone, but problem for many developing nations even most of developed Nations that want to have more capabilities for their local Defense Industry.

If you can't find some key components due your local tech based or Industrial capabilities, then you have to rellied on Foreign Partners to get it..thus it will cost more.
This is what I see the problem with Turkey ambitions. They want to develop most of their Defense need locally, in relative short time (even two decades is short time considering their ambition), which then raised question where the money coming from related to the size of Turkish economy (considering they have to rely to Foreign sources for some of it's key components).

Unless they can get backing from Rich Emirates in Gulf, which will be difficult since:
One, they are not in close term with some of those rich kingdoms like UAE and Saudi, they are closed mostly to Qatar,
Two, few of middle east rich kingdoms like UAE and Saudi have ambitions to developed their own Defense Industry them selves,

In short, where Turkey can get more money to develop their ambitions ? That's why I said they have to moderate their ambitions especially the time table. This in turn can reduce their own independent policies toward West (unless they risk more tech transfer hindering as they are begin to faced presently).
This is something that French even in the 60's have relative advantage compared to Turkey now when they move on having more independent policies toward/within NATO..French have relative more money and more Tech based.

However will Erdogan aware on this ? this is the big question. Erdogan big ambitions will cost big and even can be too big compared to Turkish economy size. Erdogan is not in possition like Iranian Mullah or Kim's family on spending much of their economy toward Defense ambitions. More and more opposition emerge stronger toward Him in Turkey. If he bankrupt Turkey on his Defense ambitions, this can be the end of him.

 

[John Fedup]

The US has ended a drone program with Turkey that had been on going for years. It was to help target PKK fighters. It’s termination was a consequence of Erdogan’s incursion into Syria. Erdogan’s other actions likely made this decision even easier.

Exclusive: U.S. halts secretive drone program with Turkey over Syria incursion