The Saudis aren't really haphazardly equipped. They're lavishly equipped with some of the best available. Their problems are to do with the competence of their personnel.
Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.
- Thread starter ngatimozart
- Start date
Yes, good point. My focus was on equipped/prepared/capability to fight, rather than actual equipment. While they have all the Gucci gear, they seem to struggle in employing it effectively in pretty much all domains.
Given the struggle they have had against a rag tag group of rebels funded and supported by a mid power like Iran, even projecting power a few hundred km from home, I wonder how capable they would be against a much capable and organised power.
Given the struggle they have had against a rag tag group of rebels funded and supported by a mid power like Iran, even projecting power a few hundred km from home, I wonder how capable they would be against a much capable and organised power.
Over 1000 km in a straight line from the nearest point of Iran to where the fighting is, & quite a lot further by the routes their aid has to take, so even more in the Saudi favour than you say. The failure of the Saudis is remarkable. I'm struggling to think of anyone else who has done quite so badly with such material superiority. The Libyans in Tchad, maybe?
Ananda
The Bunker Group
If we used Israel assessment, they for several decades already conclude that only three armed forces in Middle East they really have to watch; Egypt, Turkey and Iran. Even Hezbollah still regard by them higher then rich gulf kingdoms armed forces on sustaint fighting capabilities.
Saudi's and the other Rich Gulf Kingdoms tendencies to keep their Armed Forces leadership in the hands of Royal Families and their surrounding families, create disinsentives for their armed forces abilities to have real professional leadership cadres.
They still behave like 18th centuries European Kingdoms where only the rich and Royal connected 'tallents' that can climb to top leadership of the Armed Forces.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Jordan appears to be militarily competent but is neutral to pro Israel depending on the crisis at the time.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Jordan have better Armed Forces development and management under current King (Abdullah) compared when his Father (Hussain) reign. However still depend on who's control the Royal House. Is just so happens Abdullah has better understanding on how modern military work compared to his father.
However as professional institution, only Egypt, Turkey and Iran that have build professional sustain Military institution. We can see how the result of Iran-Iraq war. Despite all the purge of Khomeini's Mullah and US Embargo, the Iranian military still turned to be much more professional in battle field compared to relative better funded and equipped Saddam's army at that time of war.
As for Egypt, well it's the only Arab Army that have chances on facing and beat Israel head on. Even Syrian Army in their Height still not in par with them. Several military historian assessment during Yom Kippur war conclude, had Egypt not being push by Syrian situation (their Tanks bogged down in Golan and being pushed back)..They can wait Israel advance on their possition near Suez cannal, where they can bleed Israeli more effectively.
This just showns why Israel still regard them as the only Arab Armed Forces that really have abilities as their par. For that, Saudi's also support Egyptian Armed Forces, including bank rolled purchasing those two Mistral that should go to Russia.
As for Turks, you can say whatever on Erdogan, but Turkish Armed Forces still most capable Armed Forces in middle East outside Israel in my opinion. Even still the most capable ones on NATO South East flank, compared to Greece.
As for rich Armed Forces of the Gulf, they still hard to develop as sustaint military force as long as the Royals in Gulf still treat their Armed Forces basically as fully equipped 'body guard' for their families protection.
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IMHO, it is hard to talk about the well equipped militaries in Egypt and in Turkey, in such broad strokes as you have done, as they have a very different institutional histories and are each designed to address a very different threat matrix.Ananda said:
Let me avoid talking about Iran (that shares a land border with Turkey). As you well know, the Persians have been competitors with the Ottomans for the longest time and it is too complex to reply in 1 to 2 posts. As a backgrounder to your post, let me add 2 sub-points on Egypt (with a GDP (PPP) per capita of Int'l$ 13,366) and Turkey (with a GDP (PPP) per capita of Int'l$ 27,956), as follows:
(i) Egypt's army, navy, air force and air defense force have a combined strength of about 450,000. The Egyptian army, with about 320,000 troops, 2,160 tanks, 5,735 armored fighting vehicles, 1,000 self propelled artillery is large and impressive by regional standards. As Anwar Sadat was fond of saying that “the United States holds 90 per- cent of the cards,” and aligning Egypt with the dominant global power instead of a the Soviet Union was shrewd. In exchange for his alliance with the United States, Sadat not only drew tens of billions of dollars in U.S. aid, but he also significantly upgraded his military equipment, improved training for his troops, and eliminated Egypt’s most likely foe from the battlefield.
- From the Camp David peace accords in 1978 until 2000, the US has subsidized Egypt's armed forces with over US$38 billion worth of aid. Egypt receives about US$1.3 billion annually. Three decades of focused acquisition patterns have done several things. First, they upgraded Egypt’s military capabilities. Egypt operates 7 E-2Cs, more than 200 F-16s (thanks to US aid), 24 Rafales, 19 Mirage 2000, and 15 Mig-29s. While Egypt does not have the most advanced weaponry in the region—Egypt’s military capability still makes it a regional power. Second, US assistance has helped augment Egypt’s industrial capability. The same expertise that goes into assembling tank kits for the M1 tank, for example, also contributes to Egypt’s car manufacturing capability. See also: New Political Struggles for Egypt’s Military
- I note that Egypt has faced the Israeli army four times, and while it has had successful battles, victories have often come at substantial cost, in terms of preparations for war as well as losses on the battlefield. The US relationship with both Egypt and Israel has not only prevented war since the March 1979 peace agreement, but it has made war unlikely in the future.
- Following the 2016 failed coup attempt, Ankara took drastic measures to purge their officer cadre. Considering the serious involvement of air platforms in the hostile plot, the Turkish administration’s efforts focused on the pilots at the ranks of the Air Force and the Army Aviation. As a result, a large number of pilots were dismissed from the Armed Forces. While Ankara aimed to ensure adequate security for this critical segment of the military, the side effects had surfaced by a serious decrease in the pilot-to-cockpit ratio (the number of pilots for platform). For this worrying reason, Turkey opted for addressing the pilot shortage by initiating the "reserve pilot" concept which depends on harvesting flying personnel from the nation's commercial airlines for dual employment. Turkish defense planners also promoted some ground crew for the flight posts, and accelerated pilot generation efforts.
- While Turkey is more capable than Greece, as NATO members, they both do not have the option of fighting each other.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Agree on that. My post on Turkey, Egypt and Iran is aimed more on compare purpose to the huge budget Rich Gulf Kingdoms Armed Forces. Comparing how performance (like being shown by Saudi and UAE) in current Yamen crisis is not showing expected competency relative to how well their Armed Forces being equipped.
Issue on how their leadership deficiency (especially Saudi case) will continue provide negative aspects for their Armed Forces as competence sustainable fighting force compared to relative less budget (to Saudi's) Egypt, Turkey and Iranian Armed Forces.
Without some Reformation on how those Kingdoms treat their Military leadership on more to merit performance thus institutional changes, they are going to continue be just well equipped body guards instead effective armed force.
Showing money can't buy everything, seems more and more shown in the performance of those Rich Gulf armed forces.
I do have opinion that Turkey armed forces still have advantage of Egypt due to their longer history on professional military institution (during modern era). Nasser and Sadat did revamped Egypt Military, but Turkey has done longer since Kemal Attaturk modernise Turkey military from their stagnant and outdated Otomans institution.
That the reason I put Turkey as most effective Armed Forces in middle East outside Israel. Equipment and asset wise and access toward US cooperation more or less the same, thus it's not much differed between those two Armed Forces save some advantage on Turkish longer time on developing their own professional military.
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #209
It appears that Erdogan's migrant stunt has backfired on him with both the Greek and Bulgarian borders firmly closed to them. Turkish news has been actively broadcasting that the borders are open and that close to 120,000 migrants are leaving Turkey for Greece via a northern crossing. Media on the ground have in fact only seen about 4,000 and the migrants aren't getting into Europe Erdogan’s Empty Threats.
Greece is having problems dealing with migrants and the current govt wants more EU help. It has a strong land border with Turkey, but its maritime border is totally different, hard to monitor and police. The current govt wants to build detention camps on islands such as Lesbos, but the locals are against it and the govt has had to ferry in riot police to protect the camp construction workers and worksites Greece on the defensive as Turkey opens border to refugees.
Greece is having problems dealing with migrants and the current govt wants more EU help. It has a strong land border with Turkey, but its maritime border is totally different, hard to monitor and police. The current govt wants to build detention camps on islands such as Lesbos, but the locals are against it and the govt has had to ferry in riot police to protect the camp construction workers and worksites Greece on the defensive as Turkey opens border to refugees.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Erdogan’s Empty Threats
Turkey’s decision to allow migrants to cross into the European Union was intended to pressure EU leaders to come to Ankara’s aid against Bashar al-Assad.…
foreignpolicy.com
"The inflated numbers of migrants supposedly exiting Turkey both scares EU officials and pleases a certain demographic of Turkish voters who resent refugees inside Turkey and are unhappy that their government is sending soldiers to die inside Syria. The Turkish government also has its reasons to force Europe’s hand. Ankara has long argued that the 2016 deal with the EU to stem migrant flows into Europe was not upheld. While Turkey sealed its borders in exchange for financial compensation for sheltering millions of refugees, the EU has not accepted its quota of settling people in its member states".
I put this section of that Article you also put @ngatimozart as that section in my opinion is the main reasons Turkey open it's border with EU for those migrants. It's too early saying it's back fired to Turkey. In fact it's just beginning. Angela Merkel already have some talk with Erdogan, and so far according to Turkey media, Erdogan refuse more money from EU.
Seems Erdogan's administration are aiming not only money for EU to keep the migrants, but also want EU to take some migrants away from them to answer their domestic constituance pressure.
So, this have potential to get prolonged bargaining. The migrants did not want to settle in Greece or Bulgaria..they are aiming German and North European. What if the Greece and Bulgarian domestic mood also say, well let them go to Germany and North Europe. We don't want to become Jail Guard for them..
Erdogan can still get what he wants if Bulgarian and Greece become overwhelmed.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
This article about the threat of a COVID-19 outbreak amongst the refugees could really complicate an already bad situation. Not hard to imagine some drastic actions being taken to prevent refugees from entering Europe. Any government seen as not being aggressive which results in escalation of the virus spread will be in deep trouble even though it is likely to spread without refugee contributions.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #212
Erdogan’s Empty Threats
Turkey’s decision to allow migrants to cross into the European Union was intended to pressure EU leaders to come to Ankara’s aid against Bashar al-Assad.…
"The inflated numbers of migrants supposedly exiting Turkey both scares EU officials and pleases a certain demographic of Turkish voters who resent refugees inside Turkey and are unhappy that their government is sending soldiers to die inside Syria. The Turkish government also has its reasons to force Europe’s hand. Ankara has long argued that the 2016 deal with the EU to stem migrant flows into Europe was not upheld. While Turkey sealed its borders in exchange for financial compensation for sheltering millions of refugees, the EU has not accepted its quota of settling people in its member states".
I put this section of that Article you also put @ngatimozart as that section in my opinion is the main reasons Turkey open it's border with EU for those migrants. It's too early saying it's back fired to Turkey. In fact it's just beginning. Angela Merkel already have some talk with Erdogan, and so far according to Turkey media, Erdogan refuse more money from EU.
Seems Erdogan's administration are aiming not only money for EU to keep the migrants, but also want EU to take some migrants away from them to answer their domestic constituance pressure.
So, this have potential to get prolonged bargaining. The migrants did not want to settle in Greece or Bulgaria..they are aiming German and North European. What if the Greece and Bulgarian domestic mood also say, well let them go to Germany and North Europe. We don't want to become Jail Guard for them..
Erdogan can still get what he wants if Bulgarian and Greece become overwhelmed.
@Ananda in normal circumstances I'd mostly agree with you but we are no longer in normal circumstances because as @John Fedup points out the COVID-19 virus complicates and already complicated situation and there is fear enough worldwide about it. As much as Frau Merkel and other EU pollies may want to appease Erdogan, they also know the political realities of their own polity and even the merest whisper of the virus amongst the migrants, whether it's true or not, would kill any support for resettling any of the migrants anywhere in Europe. It will just harden resistance to the idea. With Italy having its COVID-19 outbreak and other European nations having cases, it could be argued that send migrants whose health probably isn't 100%, into the region would be very unwise and prejudical to the migrants. Erdogan may just have to have them for longer, or arrange for them to be repatriated to their home countries.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
There is a lot of pressure from the US on Turkey and orher countries who want to order the S-400 and other advanced weaponsystems from Russia. And although the economic situation in the world at this moment is mot really sjpportive, it seems that Turkey want to order more S-400 systems.
tass.com
Russia ready to sign new deal with Turkey on S-400 air defense systems
Turkey is the first NATO member state to purchase the air defense missile systems from Russia
tass.com
Some footage of Turkish troops operating in northern Iraq. It appears they're running regular operations, hunting down PKK members and their potential affiliates.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Being already active in Syria and Libya, adding a potential conflict in the eastern part of Mediterrane on the shoulders of the Turkish armed force is maybe not such a good plan.
www.janes.com
www.navalnews.com
nos.nl
I saw somewhere a map of that part of the sea surrounding Turkey, Cyprus and Greece with the Exclusive Economic Zones drawn in it, but sadly i cant find it.
France reinforces military presence in Eastern Mediterranean
France is temporarily increasing its military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean in coming days, President Emmanuel Macron announced in a tweet on 12 August. In a...
www.janes.com
Video: Hellenic and French Navies' Combined Exercise in Eastern Med - Naval News
The Hellenic armed forces general staff released pictures and videos of the combined exercise which took place this morning between the Hellenic Navy and French Navy, in the Eastern Mediterranean.
www.navalnews.com
Conflict over aardgas zet relatie Griekenland en Turkije op scherp
De spanningen tussen Griekenland en Turkije lopen weer hoog op. De Turken zijn in Griekse wateren opzoek naar aardgas. Tot grote frustratie van de Grieken.
nos.nl
I saw somewhere a map of that part of the sea surrounding Turkey, Cyprus and Greece with the Exclusive Economic Zones drawn in it, but sadly i cant find it.
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EU: Turkish Navy Movements in Eastern Med ‘extremely worrying’ - Naval News
The European Union foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, qualified the movements of the Turkish navy in the Eastern Mediterranean as "extremely worrying".
www.navalnews.com
The above link details some of the adventures that Turkey is engaging in. There is also an EEZ map there which could be the map that Sandhi Yudha was referring to.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #218
Turkey is taking part in this years Russian Kavkaz 2020 large scale exercise. This exercise is a snap exercise according to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu back in July. From a NATO OPSEC POV this is not a good thing because how much NATO restricted material is finding it's way into Russian hands via Turkey. Maybe it's time for NATO to pull the pin on Turkey and eject it from the organisation because of it being such a security risk.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
Kavkaz 2020 and Turkey - A lesson for the West and NATO
This week sees the latest iteration of the annual large-scale Russian military exercises, held each year in one of the four military districts.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
This comes on top of purchasing a second S-400 regiment at Army-2020. It's possible (likely in my opinion) that the initial purchase was political, but this second purchase comes after getting a closer look at the system and realizing what they got.Turkey is taking part in this years Russian Kavkaz 2020 large scale exercise. This exercise is a snap exercise according to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu back in July. From a NATO OPSEC POV this is not a good thing because how much NATO restricted material is finding it's way into Russian hands via Turkey. Maybe it's time for NATO to pull the pin on Turkey and eject it from the organisation because of it being such a security risk.
Kavkaz 2020 and Turkey - A lesson for the West and NATO
This week sees the latest iteration of the annual large-scale Russian military exercises, held each year in one of the four military districts.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
By the way, China is also participating in Kavkaz-2020.
Armenian Ministry of Defense shared some images, claiming that the Bayraktar TB2 type Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicle belonging to the Azerbaijani Armed Forces was shot down.
@ATGM I replied to your first post welcoming you and said that you are not able to copy and paste articles without writing some original input from yourself. If you continue to do so you will be in trouble with the Moderators. In future please add at least 2 lines of your thoughts on why you think the content that you are posting is worth discussing.
Ngatimozart.
@ATGM I replied to your first post welcoming you and said that you are not able to copy and paste articles without writing some original input from yourself. If you continue to do so you will be in trouble with the Moderators. In future please add at least 2 lines of your thoughts on why you think the content that you are posting is worth discussing.
Ngatimozart.
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