Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.

[ngatimozart]

According to Israel, apparently Turkey is now looking at closer relations with China . Erdogan has been in Beijing singing the praises of Xi's Belt and Road initiative, and he will be looking for significant Chinese investment to bolster a flagging Turkish economy. Militarily, he could give the Chinese access to a Mediterranean base. Also I think this has to be read in conjunction with the closer military ties between China and Russia. These ties are growing closer each year and are a potential threat to Europe and the US. This great power rivalry places Erdogan right where he wants to be - in the middle and the centre of attention.

 

[John Fedup]

Just more confirmation as to why Erdogan should be denied F-35s. If he stays around much longer, NATO membership will be next to go.

 

[Ranger25]

In some rare potentially porosity news between the US and Turkey it appears there may be a framework in place to establish a safe zone between Turkey and the Kurds. US and Turkey to establish a joint command center in Turkey to provide operational joint command.



Turkey, US appear closer to establishing safe zone in Syria

 

[Ananda]

Erdogan with Putin in the opening of MAKS 2019. Not surprisingly the Russian shows Su-57 to Erdogan. I believe in this MAKS the Russian showing Export Version of Su-57.

Quite interestingly, Erdogan also put some time with MC-21. Read on Turkish media that Erdogan Administration wants TAI also got more involvement on Regional Airliners.

Russian need to break Airbus-Boeing duopoly. Turkish Airlines and other Airlines in Turkey will be interesting way for MC-21 to get into International market. Will it this be some potential sharing project with MC-21 for TAI ?

 

[ngatimozart]

Yep, Flight Global article on this says similar. MAKS: Putin courts Erdogan, but Sukhoi Su-57 deal elusive "We talked about cooperation on the Su-35 and even on possible work on the new Su-57 plane," Putin told TASS, a Russian state-owned news agency. So carrots being dangled in front of Erdogans nose.

 

[Feanor]

Yep, Flight Global article on this says similar. MAKS: Putin courts Erdogan, but Sukhoi Su-57 deal elusive "We talked about cooperation on the Su-35 and even on possible work on the new Su-57 plane," Putin told TASS, a Russian state-owned news agency. So carrots being dangled in front of Erdogans nose.

Not sure it's just a carrot. Russia needs customers for both types to help offset development costs. India pulling out of the PAK-FA project was not good.

 

[2007yellow430]

We are losing an ally. Slowly but surely we are alienating them. If they go to Russia and China for their arms and transport jets they will be gone. I do not understand why we couldn’t sell them F35s modified to ensure no loss of data. I’m sure we could have done that, but what’s done is done, I guess.

Art

 

[John Fedup]

We are losing an ally. Slowly but surely we are alienating them. If they go to Russia and China for their arms and transport jets they will be gone. I do not understand why we couldn’t sell them F35s modified to ensure no loss of data. I’m sure we could have done that, but what’s done is done, I guess.

Art

Turkey has been a questionable ally since Erdogan came to power. There is only one reliable Western ally in the ME, period.

 

[Feanor]

Turkey has been a questionable ally since Erdogan came to power. There is only one reliable Western ally in the ME, period.

Sorry, who is this reliable ally in the Middle East? Israel has been in close defense cooperation with Russia not only on their forays into Syria, but in Russian UAV development and localization (UAVs that have been used and shot down over Ukraine for example). Saudi Arabia is a brutal authoritarian state whose moves are a source of problems and embarrassment, including their involvement in Yemen. Egypt is already buying Russian jets (among other Russian things), and is discussing NPP plans with Rosatom. As far as I can tell the only real example of reliability in the ME over the past quarter-century has been Assad sticking by his Russian patrons, but I'm not sure if that's loyalty/reliability or just stupidity/lack of initiative. And even he has moved much closer to Iran.

I guess if reliability is the only criteria, Saudi Arabia would count, but I think they're less of an ally and more of a client state...

 

[Ananda]

I guess if reliability is the only criteria, Saudi Arabia would count, but I think they're less of an ally and more of a client state...

If talking west as EU and US, then Israel has been at odd with EU on several occasions.
If talking US, then Saudi is their Golden child, more then Israel I believe despite all the Israel Lobby power in Washington.

US media can say anything on Saudi's..but implementation on Policy never hurt Saudi's interest. From media and some politicians anger to Saudi's handling on Islamic Radical cells after 911 to present Yaman crisis..US 'real' policies will back Saudi's.

If any reliable interaction with any ME government with US, then it's Saudi. Even Israel has shown their 'independence' policies that not in-line with US policies as you have shown.

 

[John Fedup]

Sorry, who is this reliable ally in the Middle East? Israel has been in close defense cooperation with Russia not only on their forays into Syria, but in Russian UAV development and localization (UAVs that have been used and shot down over Ukraine for example). Saudi Arabia is a brutal authoritarian state whose moves are a source of problems and embarrassment, including their involvement in Yemen. Egypt is already buying Russian jets (among other Russian things), and is discussing NPP plans with Rosatom. As far as I can tell the only real example of reliability in the ME over the past quarter-century has been Assad sticking by his Russian patrons, but I'm not sure if that's loyalty/reliability or just stupidity/lack of initiative. And even he has moved much closer to Iran.

I guess if reliability is the only criteria, Saudi Arabia would count, but I think they're less of an ally and more of a client state...

Reliability might be the wrong term when discussing ME "Allies". Perhaps tolerable would be a better term. No ally is 100% reliable due to pursuit of their own national interest and their actual capability/competence. There are certainly several lacking competence. Concerning Saudi Arabia, the US should have dumped them after 9/11 but oil prevented that then but now that isn't an issue. Their performance in Yemen illustrates their competence. As you note, others have military kit arrangements with Russia, not desirable but IMHO not as bad as the technology give always to China by western corporations in exchange for market access.

 

[2007yellow430]

At some point we’ll realize that allies, whether reliable or not, can help us. The indiscriminate trashing of our NATO allies is having an effect. Turkey leaves NATO who’s next? This is not good. At some point this is going to hurt. Economically and militarily.

Art

 

[John Fedup]

At some point we’ll realize that allies, whether reliable or not, can help us. The indiscriminate trashing of our NATO allies is having an effect. Turkey leaves NATO who’s next? This is not good. At some point this is going to hurt. Economically and militarily.

Art

It wasn't just the US that was tired of Erdogan, the Europeans were too. Trump's attitude to traditional NATO allies and key Asian allies might make his base happy but it won't serve US interests down the road.

 

[ngatimozart]

At some point we’ll realize that allies, whether reliable or not, can help us. The indiscriminate trashing of our NATO allies is having an effect. Turkey leaves NATO who’s next? This is not good. At some point this is going to hurt. Economically and militarily.

Art

It wasn't just the US that was tired of Erdogan, the Europeans were too. Trump's attitude to traditional NATO allies and key Asian allies might make his base happy but it won't serve US interests down the road.

If / when Turkey leaves NATO shouldn't have a domino effect per se however, it would leave open NATO's southern flank. It would although encourage Putin in his machinations to split NATO even more. At the present point in time, I think that if / when Trump did pull the US out of NATO, the Alliance would still survive as NATO if Canada remained as a member, or it would morph into an European alliance.

 

[Hone C]

At the present point in time, I think that if / when Trump did pull the US out of NATO, the Alliance would still survive as NATO if Canada remained as a member, or it would morph into an European alliance.

If the US pulled out it would probably render the alliance irrelevant as the US provides the vast majority of military spending and capability. I can't see Canada or post Brexit UK remaining in a EU centric alliance structure without the US.

 

[John Fedup]

Not sure about what the UK would do but Canada would likely put all its eggs into the NORAD basket. Some kind of revised trade agreement might induce the two countries to remain in NATO but I doubt this could be arranged. Were The US and the UK to leave and with Germany unwilling to fund defence I don't see any optimistic future for NATO.

 

[ngatimozart]

It appears Turkey is heading towards another conflict with Greece involving the Cypriot question and both nations EEZs.

This map shows the EEZs at the moment. Turkey isn't a signatory to UNCLOS unlike Greece and it may not work in Turkey's favour because it means that it cannot appeal to the ITLOS (International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea) or ICJ (International Court of Justice) for arbitration. This has been an ongoing issue for years and Turkey is seeking to change the status quo to its favour. Apparently in the Adriatic their control of local Muslim populations has ensured the permanent stationing of a naval squadron in Bulgaria, so one wonders if Edorgan is following Xi Jinping's play book. Turkey also has the Greek island of Kastellorizo one mile off its south coast,

which the map above shows, and that creates problems for Turkey because Greece is determined to assert full control over its EEZ including all of its islands, which it is doing so in conjunction with the EU. Apparently the EU is also running a concentrated drilling program so that it reduces its dependence upon foreign energy imports. This could be the forerunner of a dedicated EU EEZ. Because there are numerous overlapping EEZ boundaries that Turkey has with Greece, Cyprus, the tensions are ever present because Turkey is aggrieved that it isn't receiving what it believes is an equitable access to the resources of the Eastern Mediterranean out to 200 nm.

The map above shows the gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially around Cyprus and Turkey already sent two exploration and two drilling ships into Cypriot waters, defying EU sanctions. It's also been warning Greek Cypriots not to sign contracts with international companies, which legally the Turks can't do anyway, so it's bullying.

However, Turkey has made an agreement with the UN recognised Libyan govt which has not only upset Greece, but also Cyprus, and Egypt. The map above shows the EEZs boundary and it being a Turkish map omits a few Greek islands. Turkey also claims that it has a maritime border with Egypt and does not recognise the Republic of Cyprus, nor does it recognise and Turkish Cypriot EEZ claims.

Turkey may just be picking a fight it can't hope to win. If it gets into strife with Greece over the EEZ and gas fields that escalates to warshots, then the EU will side with Greece and NATO may a well. It has upset the US so it may find itself sanctioned by the US, especially Congress so Trump probably won't be able to help his mate Erdogan out, hence unable to replenish arms and support existing weapons systems. The EU will definitely sanction it, probably severely and it may just find itself evicted from NATO. Erdogan already had the hard word in London and had to swallow a dead rat by withdrawing his holding out on agreement to a NATO East European / Baltic defence plan.

Egypt is also quite annoyed with Turkey over this and the Turks had a big falling out with Israel a while back, or it could've been the other way around. The Egyptians and Israelis do work together on occasion and this could be where they may see a mutual opportunity. Also, the Saudis and some other Gulf nations may take the opportunity to help the Egyptians to spike the Turks guns so to speak. Erdogan is quite stubborn, so we will just have to wait for the next instalment.

 

[Mike Wallace]

It appears Turkey is heading towards another conflict with Greece involving the Cypriot question and both nations EEZs.
View attachment 46907
This map shows the EEZs at the moment. Turkey isn't a signatory to UNCLOS unlike Greece and it may not work in Turkey's favour because it means that it cannot appeal to the ITLOS (International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea) or ICJ (International Court of Justice) for arbitration. This has been an ongoing issue for years and Turkey is seeking to change the status quo to its favour. Apparently in the Adriatic their control of local Muslim populations has ensured the permanent stationing of a naval squadron in Bulgaria, so one wonders if Edorgan is following Xi Jinping's play book. Turkey also has the Greek island of Kastellorizo one mile off its south coast,
View attachment 46908
which the map above shows, and that creates problems for Turkey because Greece is determined to assert full control over its EEZ including all of its islands, which it is doing so in conjunction with the EU. Apparently the EU is also running a concentrated drilling program so that it reduces its dependence upon foreign energy imports. This could be the forerunner of a dedicated EU EEZ. Because there are numerous overlapping EEZ boundaries that Turkey has with Greece, Cyprus, the tensions are ever present because Turkey is aggrieved that it isn't receiving what it believes is an equitable access to the resources of the Eastern Mediterranean out to 200 nm.
View attachment 46909
The map above shows the gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially around Cyprus and Turkey already sent two exploration and two drilling ships into Cypriot waters, defying EU sanctions. It's also been warning Greek Cypriots not to sign contracts with international companies, which legally the Turks can't do anyway, so it's bullying.
View attachment 46911
However, Turkey has made an agreement with the UN recognised Libyan govt which has not only upset Greece, but also Cyprus, and Egypt. The map above shows the EEZs boundary and it being a Turkish map omits a few Greek islands. Turkey also claims that it has a maritime border with Egypt and does not recognise the Republic of Cyprus, nor does it recognise and Turkish Cypriot EEZ claims.

Turkey may just be picking a fight it can't hope to win. If it gets into strife with Greece over the EEZ and gas fields that escalates to warshots, then the EU will side with Greece and NATO may a well. It has upset the US so it may find itself sanctioned by the US, especially Congress so Trump probably won't be able to help his mate Erdogan out, hence unable to replenish arms and support existing weapons systems. The EU will definitely sanction it, probably severely and it may just find itself evicted from NATO. Erdogan already had the hard word in London and had to swallow a dead rat by withdrawing his holding out on agreement to a NATO East European / Baltic defence plan.

Egypt is also quite annoyed with Turkey over this and the Turks had a big falling out with Israel a while back, or it could've been the other way around. The Egyptians and Israelis do work together on occasion and this could be where they may see a mutual opportunity. Also, the Saudis and some other Gulf nations may take the opportunity to help the Egyptians to spike the Turks guns so to speak. Erdogan is quite stubborn, so we will just have to wait for the next instalment.

Despite Turkey's deal with Libya, I personally think it is not going to go at war with another NATO member. Because if it does, then it would put cracks in the alliance that would be really difficult to seal. With a growing eastern bloc in the shape of Russia and China, NATO would prefer to solve the issue diplomatically, rather than allow morph into a military one.

 

[ngatimozart]

Despite Turkey's deal with Libya, I personally think it is not going to go at war with another NATO member. Because if it does, then it would put cracks in the alliance that would be really difficult to seal. With a growing eastern bloc in the shape of Russia and China, NATO would prefer to solve the issue diplomatically, rather than allow morph into a military one.

NATO mightn't have the choice especially if Greece invokes Article Five after a Turkish attack. Don't underestimate the Turkish enmity towards the Greeks, who they see as sworn and despised enemies, more than they despise the Kurds and the Armenians. Don't forget the Turks committed the war crime of genocide against the Armenians during WW1, and they don't treat the Kurds much better today. They didn't treat their remaining Greek population any better, between Greek War of Independence with the founding of the Kingdom of Greece in 1832, and the exchange of populations as a result of the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 after the Greco - Turkish War of 1921 - 22. There had been a Greek genocide from 1913 to 1922 after the Balkan Wars.

The only reason Ataturk went to the negotiating table in 1922 was that the British were preparing to invade and occupy the Gallipoli Peninsula, Çanakkale, the Dardanelles, Bosporus Straits, and Constantinople (Istanbul) again supported by their Dominions, Australian and New Zealand, Canada didn't want a bar of it and looking back rightly so because it would've been a bloodbath - again, with no guarantee of victory.

Erdogan sees himself as the next Ottoman Sultan / Caliph, and he intends to restore the glory of the Ottoman Empire. He's already pushing against the Greeks with an airspace violation here another there, EEZ violations etc. He pushes that nationalistic and religious buttons well with the Turkish population.

 

[Ananda]

NATO mightn't have the choice especially if Greece invokes Article Five after a Turkish attack. Don't underestimate the Turkish enmity towards the Greeks

@ngatimozart perhaps in this I try to see that the genocide during war 21-22 is happen on both side. Remember Greece also has agenda to eradicate Turks from Thrace and Western Anatolia. Both sides still despised each other, but perhaps Greece are selling their cause better in some Western nation, perhaps more in the English speaking ones.
However talking to some Germans, they seem to see it more neutral in the sense both Greeks and Turks have their own failing. Like in Cyprus, if Greek Nationalist Cypriot did not attack Turkish Cypriot first and have agenda to eradicate Turkish Cypriot from Cyprus, Turkey perhaps will not have an 'excuse' to invade Cyprus.

Thus the chances of Greek attacking Turks in my opinion has similar chances percentage as to Turkish attack Greece.
Also if looking to Turkish forums, or media eventough average Turks did not really like Greeks (and the feeling is mutual to each other), but I don't quite see their negative feeling toward Greeks are more compared to Kurds. Despite Kurds and Turks are both Moeslem, but they see Kurds as terrorist that want to break up Turkish territory. They see Greeks more as dislike due to historical feeling, more like Japanese and Korean looking to each other.

Erdogan possition is not that strong, based on latest election trend. However if average Turkey see NATO and the West does back Greece more than them, then it will only serve Erdogan cause. For that, I see German and French has more incentive to be neutral on any dispute between Turkey and Greece.