I think it has to be a bit quicker then 24 months, first Hunter starting 2022 last one delivered 2042 and first Hobart replacement due to start 2038. Even if the final Hunter is laid down in 2038-39 that would bring the Drumbeat down to 21-22 months
I think we are looking at a drumbeat of every 21 months.
I'd like to address the 'drumbeat' comments on here & the timescales being paraded / reduced / increased & seeing more action than a prostitutes undergarments on a busy Saturday night !
Firstly, lets look at things practically - For those involved in any recent, technically advanced warship manufacturing projects (
Like AWD / T45), the 1st ship takes longer than all the others, as it is a prototype. The 2nd ship will not be as long, but will still be close to the 'stated timescale'. The 3rd ship is where most of the snags / build issues have been removed & timescales can initially start to be 'reduced'. If you maintain a build programme, building multiple ships of the same class, by the time you get to 6th ship, you are probably at maximum speed.
One of the key factors on the actual speed of the drumbeat is the resources available. IF you start with 1000 shipyard workers to build the 1st ship (
including all levels of management / designers / quality control / inspection & test), you have about 600 people who are actually 'on the ship' with the rest being office based. To maintain a 'drumbeat, you have to start the 2nd hull, before the 1st hull is complete as a steel-work ship (
i.e. ready to be put into the water, with major components fitted, but not really a ship that can go sailing anywhere). That 2nd hull will take about 300 of the 600 available.
As ships are often built from the stern, going forward, it makes sense that the next ship is constructed that way too, as you can take the guys from the 1st hull & transfer them across onto the 2nd hull, as they've done it all before, so will have a good idea of how it goes together & where the problems are.
To 'increase' the speed of production, at this point the shipyard has to take on more staff. The reality of this is that if you want to go from 24 to 18 months you need to find about 300 bodies. Throw into that mix that most large engineering firms lose about 50 - 60 staff a year, between retirement / deaths / sackings & people moving onto new jobs, you will have lost about 200 bodies from the workforce
All these facts start to mount up, they drive drive up costs, in-build issues can appear as new staff do things different from 'regulars' who've been on the project from the start. Then there's the 'Customer Wish List' of adding changes / improvements into a hull as the class progresses. The shipyard will be wary of costs & budgets, so will aim to do 'more with less' by the time they get to ship 5, as management will be looking at reducing the biggest overhead in any major engineering project, labour costs.
The practicalities of a construction project of this type & size, is that 24 months between hulls leaving the build yard / entering the hands of the navy, IS about as fast as you really want the ships (unless you're going to war / have lost a hull from the fleet, due to incident / accident). Building faster means the navy needs to find more sailors, they have to be trained, fed/watered/housed & all the other factors that influence fleet numbers of staff. Population numbers in most 1st world, Westernised countries are actually reducing, as we have less children than our grandparents generation, so there are less bodies available to become 'NEW' sailors. Most of our population is at or over 50, so more sailors are leaving, than the Navy can recruit.
So...
Does it REALLY make sense to go beyond the 24 month drumbeat ???
Rant over
SA