@RegR have you been reading what I and some others, such as Mr C have been posting about what has been stated in the FAMC RFI? We've actually read the document, plus the attachments to it, and some of us have copies of it as well which we keep referring to. You will also note reading our past posts, that Mr C and myself have been quite scathing of the failure of the Key govt to buy the two C-17A white tails. that was a colossal blunder on their part, because the decision was made purely on flawed political ideological reasons.
It's nothing to do with the old mantra of replacing a Herc with a Herc. It's about what's the best platform to meet NZ's tactical air lift capability requirements and at present the C-130J meets those requirements. I agree 8 would be a good number, but given the history of NZ acquisitions and the current govts attitude towards defence, it would be a very remote outside chance at the best. I wouldn't even bet Winston's starboard dangler on it. Having a two tier military transport fleet comprised of aircraft with ramps is ideal, because one component is tactical, whilst the other is strategic, hence a C-130J and A400M / C-2 fleet makes sense.
Helen Clark didn't cut defence for the reasons you stated, she did what she did for pure mid - far left wing ideological reasons and the fact that she was / is anti US and anti Australia. I looked at at the Slovak price and it does appear to be very expensive indeed, so there are other factors in that contract that are not normally included in such arrangements, or the amount quoted is a misprint. Bear in mind that the amount quoted is not the final value and is generally the upper limit.
At 2% GDP NZ can afford a Naval Combat Force of 4 frigates, a LHD etc. An Air Combat Force of say 14 - 18 strike aircraft, Air Surveillance Force of 10 - 15 aircraft (6 x P-8, 3 x BAMS, 6 x KA-350 with sensors), 12 NH90, more naval helos, more A109 in a variety of roles, 8 x C-130J, 3 C-17A / C-2 / A400M, 3 KC30 / KC46. Upgrade the NZ Army LAV and artillery, plus introduce SPG, SAM and AAA. To get to that the NZG would have to inject capital of about NZ$25 - 30 billion over 10 - 15 years over and above the 2%GDP per annum. NZ can afford that even if it means increasing govt spending in the medium term by $3 -5 billion per year, whilst retaining current spending.
NZ is not going to take the PRC or Russia on its own in war. We will always be part of an alliance or coalition and as such will contribute forces to such. However, it is the makeup of that contribution, it's professionalism it's seamless integration into larger forces, and its ability to be self sufficient in all aspects that is important, with the last being critical, so that it is not a drain on alliance or coalition forces. Unfortunately our politicians and Treasury officials either don't grasp or refuse to acknowledge that.