An very interesting post StingRay, with Indonesian set to out strip the Australian economy will they become the dominate regional player?
There is a fear that might happen.
I think that is unlikely. Indonesia is very much concerned with Indonesia, which is a complex place internally. While they are getting more capable and modernising, I don't think they will have the wider multi-regional significance Australia has. They aren't really concerned with that, at least in the foreseeable future, and while they will be come bigger, they are unlikely to become China sized big. In some ways I can see a repeat of some of the issues Malaysia has had in terms of development. They are likely to become another middle power looking for their place in with all the other middle powers.
Indonesia tends to stay out of things (such as the ME) and just tends to focus on its immediate surroundings. Malaysia, Singapore, PNG, staying Indonesia, trying to relate to Australia, Timor, etc.
But Indonesia can certainly give Australia multiple massive head aches, and could tie up Australian resources, outlook and focus. It always has, but it will be much more peer based and more capable. But I would say Singapore and Indonesia have more friction that Australia and Indonesia.
I think you’re describing the “Thucydides Trap” on a number of levels.
President Xi Jinping says “we all need to work together to avoid the TC” and our deposed PM has also warned against it.
There is certainly an element of Thucydides Trap. Krudd also believed that a power vacuum could develop as well, the so called Kindleberger Trap. Again, I think its possible, not perhaps imminent. But I think effectively that is one way to describe much of the middle east at the moment.
The point being, we should not fear the rise of China we should look to the positives and go to great lengths to nurture our relationships with both China and the US and take a positive Australian viewpoint to our foreign relationships. If that means travelling on a different path to the US on China, so be it but it will take both skill and luck to avoid the “Thucydides Trap”
I totally agree with you about taking the path. Which most likely means we have to prepare ourselves for greater defence autonomy and direction.
So increasing defence (and related) spending doesn't mean it will only occur when war is imminent.
And ideally it wouldn't just be handing wads of cash to an overseas entity. But building capability internally. So increasing to 3+% doesn't just mean shopping for the best MOTS overseas platform. That additional 1% is likely to be focused on projects with lots of local content or employment that enables capability.
