Royal New Zealand Air Force

[ngatimozart]

Yep a stuff up on my part re numbers. The range payload is still a problem for us due the distances we have to fly as the C130J has the worst range payload of the viable replacement aircraft. the next worse aircraft (the KC390) can travel almost 50% further on the C130J normal max (not the absolute max) of 15.4 tonnes. My personal choice of replacement would if the money was available would be a close choice between the C2 and the A400, with the nod going to the C2 as it is fan powered not prop which leads to lower maintenance, longer engine life, far less cabin noise, (down to almost airline standard) and greater speed which reduces mission time and increases availability. it also seems to be over development problems which the A400 is not yet. With less money the pick would be between the KC390 and the C130J. My pick would be the KC390 as it is more modern aircraft with modern control systems, has a significantly better range payload ,it is significantly cheaper again fan powered with the same advantages as the C2 and the AAR can be fitted or removed quickly as opposed to the KC130's days of work so most operators don't bother and except the performance liability. As I think RM will want to squeeze in the jet trainer / light strike aircraft I think that the cheaper option is the likely one.

With the previous govt I have said that they would go safe, probably US / European, but with this new govt all bets are off. Personally if they acquired a C-2 / KC-390 combination I wouldn't be grumpy. RM still has coin to include the jet trainer / light strike aircraft option, especially if he goes with the KAI F/A-50. That would send a positive signal to both Japan and SK if we did acquire the C-2 and F/A-50 that we are supporting Asia and ASEAN by more than just words. RM has already mentioned the T-50 when he was in the Opposition, saying that it makes sense for us to acquire platforms from other than US / European countries because we can get similar capabilities for cheaper prices, which is not silly. Our erstwhile leader is off to APEC shortly and I would not be surprised if she was spoken too by the SK and Japanese about the diplomatic benefits for her by NZ acquiring some of their platforms. If she wants to renegotiate part of the TPP then she needs to convince the Japanese, especially, and so some quid pro quo would most definitely be in order.

 

[old faithful]

Who is RM?
Do you really think NZ will get a LIFT?

I would rather see NZ get the C2,s, maybe x 4 rather than a mix of C390,s and A50,s.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Ngati I wholeheartedly agree with you and Rob C concerning a C2 and KC390 fleet mix. I offered this many months ago. The timelines for production may be tight for Embraer but Kawasaki should have no problem delivering aircraft within the timelines already suggested in the program for the strategic B757 replacement in the mid 2020s.

Three C2 and six KC390 would be ideal in my mind. All nine aircraft being ramp equipped and turbofan powered.

One extra aircraft in each fleet should take any pressures off the existing tempo of operations. The likely cheaper up front cost fort he Embraer should allow a sixth aircraft in comparison to the cost for five KC130J-30.

Just to throw a curve ball out there I am wondering if the NZ government would be willing to keep the P3K2 in service in order to take advantage of a possible Bombardier CSeries MPA in light of the recent Boeing spat and investment by Airbus. An Argus 2.0 is a very strong possibility now and would take advantage of Airbus lack of a platform against Boeing.

 

[Shanesworld]

Who is RM?
Do you really think NZ will get a LIFT?

I would rather see NZ get the C2,s, maybe x 4 rather than a mix of C390,s and A50,s.

Rm is Ron Mark. Mp and cabinet minister for defence in our recently elected coalition. Former army officer and enlisted man in the then rnzeme (as a mechanic). Did some time supporting the group and then in I think Oman or Yemen.

To be honest I am not confident. The new coalition has alot of higher priority high cost promises to service. We're be lucky to walk away with new hercules replacements, orion replacements and any direction on frigate replacements. Something has to give there.

Personally I think anything less than 8x A400/c2 and 8x P8/P1 is ignoring the developments in our region, the changes globally and the obvious strains and failures in the last x decades. Added to that I would replace all anzac/protector fleet with 6-8 stretched Absalon with 4x mtu 20v and purpose 2x at cant replacements and 4 as "multirole response vessels". Contract Singaporean F-15's for air policing. If they get in a war swap f-15's for their Lift aircraft. My defence policy. Oh and add Aussie made Spike lr2 to both sides of the lav's with stinger mag58 rws on top... Done... Wait mortar carriers and nlos. Oh and bmd defence stand flex modules for the absalon's to give enforcement to our Nuke free legislation. Oh and bring the creamy ice cream back to every mess. Miss that stuff.

 

[John Fedup]

Just to throw a curve ball out there I am wondering if the NZ government would be willing to keep the P3K2 in service in order to take advantage of a possible Bombardier CSeries MPA in light of the recent Boeing spat and investment by Airbus. An Argus 2.0 is a very strong possibility now and would take advantage of Airbus lack of a platform against Boeing.

A C-Series MPA program was the proper way to subsidize Bombardier and avoid the Trade spat to begin with. Apparently nobody at Bombardier had the brains to initiate this proposal to the government. Then again, trying to discuss any defence proposal with junior is a frigging waste of time. There will be no C-Series derived MPA. We will luckiy to have a couple of used drones for Arctic maritime patrol. Hopefully NZ can manage to obtain some P-8s, Canada never will IMO.

,

 

[old faithful]

Ummmm.....OK.....

With a NZ labor govt, I think you are more likely to see a small increase to humanitarian aid type training, more involvement with the UN, less combat orientated training, more peace keeping type training. More OPV,s, less frigates, the ANZAC,s will sail on until the next change in govt.
The C130,s you have, will fly until its considered too dangerous, and there could be a capability gap. No fast movers.....

I would like to see at least 3 frigates(with good SAM) to replace the Anzac's. 4 C2,s to replace the hercs. Maybe 4 C27,s as well. 5 or 6 P1,s to replace the P3,s.

Army to 3 sqns of QMAR. And at least another 4 NH 90,s. 155,s to replace the hammels. That is a pretty big list for NZ really. I can not see room for much else under any govt, no matter how much RM would like more, he will be lucky to get $$$ for much with Labor and greens on his team.
On the bright side, govt medical could improve, education might get some funds.

 

[ngatimozart]

Just to throw a curve ball out there I am wondering if the NZ government would be willing to keep the P3K2 in service in order to take advantage of a possible Bombardier CSeries MPA in light of the recent Boeing spat and investment by Airbus. An Argus 2.0 is a very strong possibility now and would take advantage of Airbus lack of a platform against Boeing.

Don't think so because IIRC, the RFI excluded paper designs. So that's why such platforms as the Sea Herc won't make the cut. Secondly there is no guarantee that an Argus 2.0 will make it past the "what a nice idea" stage, And thirdly, being Canuck built it'll cost a fortune and take decades of development. IIRC with Argus 1.0 the Canucks took a perfectly (then) modern turboprop airliner, the Bristol Britannia, converted it into an ASW aircraft and replaced the turboprop engines with compound radial engines. Never quite figured out the logic behind that decision. So going on previous form, Argus 2.0 could go from a turbofan to either turboprop or, heaven forbid, compound radial. There are really only two contenders and that is the Boeing P-8A and the KHI P-1, with the P-8 being the generally highly unofficial favoured option, (by many of us who aren't part of the decision making process), until the election and subsequent change of govt.

 

[John Fedup]

I guess NZ could consider a mixture of P-8s and the business jet (Mini-lite P-8) that Boeing was developing with Field Aviation if the new government wants to reduce defence spending somewhat. Not sure as to the status of the mini-8 as the business jet was Bombardier.

 

[Rob c]

Ummmm.....OK.....

With a NZ labor govt, I think you are more likely to see a small increase to humanitarian aid type training, more involvement with the UN, less combat orientated training, more peace keeping type training. More OPV,s, less frigates, the ANZAC,s will sail on until the next change in govt.
The C130,s you have, will fly until its considered too dangerous, and there could be a capability gap. No fast movers.....

I would like to see at least 3 frigates(with good SAM) to replace the Anzac's. 4 C2,s to replace the hercs. Maybe 4 C27,s as well. 5 or 6 P1,s to replace the P3,s.

Army to 3 sqns of QMAR. And at least another 4 NH 90,s. 155,s to replace the hammels. That is a pretty big list for NZ really. I can not see room for much else under any govt, no matter how much RM would like more, he will be lucky to get $$$ for much with Labor and greens on his team.
On the bright side, govt medical could improve, education might get some funds.

The NZ first party, RM's party, has probably the strongest defence policy of any incumbents in NZ, and the coalition agreement kept the full $20 B in play with some reprioritizing allowed. My interpretation is that NZ first which has a policy of restoring the combat ability of the air force was denied extra funding to do this , but allowed to see what they could achieve in the existing funding as labour intended to reduce the $20B to have more funds for other projects.

 

[old faithful]

The NZ first party, RM's party, has probably the strongest defence policy of any incumbents in NZ, and the coalition agreement kept the full $20 B in play with some reprioritizing allowed. My interpretation is that NZ first which has a policy of restoring the combat ability of the air force was denied extra funding to do this , but allowed to see what they could achieve in the existing funding as labour intended to reduce the $20B to have more funds for other projects.

Good luck with that, it looks like a government from hell to me, regardless of the good intentions of one or two of its ministers....

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Ngati I wholeheartedly agree with you and Rob C concerning a C2 and KC390 fleet mix. I offered this many months ago. The timelines for production may be tight for Embraer but Kawasaki should have no problem delivering aircraft within the timelines already suggested in the program for the strategic B757 replacement in the mid 2020s.

Three C2 and six KC390 would be ideal in my mind. All nine aircraft being ramp equipped and turbofan powered.

One extra aircraft in each fleet should take any pressures off the existing tempo of operations. The likely cheaper up front cost fort he Embraer should allow a sixth aircraft in comparison to the cost for five KC130J-30.

Just to throw a curve ball out there I am wondering if the NZ government would be willing to keep the P3K2 in service in order to take advantage of a possible Bombardier CSeries MPA in light of the recent Boeing spat and investment by Airbus. An Argus 2.0 is a very strong possibility now and would take advantage of Airbus lack of a platform against Boeing.

Given the ongoing issues with A400M and delivery schedules mentioned in a recent flight global article, and prioritization to existing customers, I'm now thinking kc390 and C2 would be a safer bet, and a vast improvement anyway on what we have now.

 

[KH-12]

Given the ongoing issues with A400M and delivery schedules mentioned in a recent flight global article, and prioritization to existing customers, I'm now thinking kc390 and C2 would be a safer bet, and a vast improvement anyway on what we have now.

Apparently the KC390 program has hit some hurdles as well

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/kc-390-returns-to-base-early-after-stall-test-442426/

Reports suggest the aircraft exceeded airframe limits by quite a margin and this prototype will not return to flight status

 

[Rob c]

Given the ongoing issues with A400M and delivery schedules mentioned in a recent flight global article, and prioritization to existing customers, I'm now thinking kc390 and C2 would be a safer bet, and a vast improvement anyway on what we have now.

You never know but a C2/P1 mix could be a viable option for the air force and if combined with the FA50 would certainly earn plenty of brown'y points towards TPP changes.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

I was reading an article last evening from January 2017 that stated the prices of the various transport options with the stated price for the KC390 and the C2 being comparable. The article also stated that the P1 was $100 million cheaper than a P8. If this is the case I agree that Kawasaki may be well positioned to take the whole lot. If it were to happen there may be savings to allow for the acquisition of four C295W to cover off the smaller loads. Say a purchase of six P1, four C2 and four C295W. This would allow a one for one replacement of the P3. The four C2 aircraft represent a load capacity of 144 ton compared to the current 100 ton capacity of the five existing Hercules. Plus the additional 40 ton offered by the C295W provides almost a doubling of transport capacity.

 

[t68]

I was reading an article last evening from January 2017 that stated the prices of the various transport options with the stated price for the KC390 and the C2 being comparable. The article also stated that the P1 was $100 million cheaper than a P8. If this is the case I agree that Kawasaki may be well positioned to take the whole lot. If it were to happen there may be savings to allow for the acquisition of four C295W to cover off the smaller loads. Say a purchase of six P1, four C2 and four C295W. This would allow a one for one replacement of the P3. The four C2 aircraft represent a load capacity of 144 ton compared to the current 100 ton capacity of the five existing Hercules. Plus the additional 40 ton offered by the C295W provides almost a doubling of transport capacity.

I don't doubt the competitiveness on price, but that's only part of the equation, spare's and availability rates will most certainty be looked at. they don't want to be in the same position as the early days of the NH-90 when it was taking so long for the return of replacement parts, but you wont truly know that until your in that position.

 

[kiwipatriot69]

I don't doubt the competitiveness on price, but that's only part of the equation, spare's and availability rates will most certainty be looked at. they don't want to be in the same position as the early days of the NH-90 when it was taking so long for the return of replacement parts, but you wont truly know that until your in that position.

Has anyone here done a cost analysis of running a kc390, A400M ,or C2, fuel costs maintainence etc? Would a 2 engine jet like C2 be more, or less thirsty on fuel than a turbprop A400M with four?

 

[Rob c]

Has anyone here done a cost analysis of running a kc390, A400M ,or C2, fuel costs maintainence etc? Would a 2 engine jet like C2 be more, or less thirsty on fuel than a turbprop A400M with four?

I don't know the actual figures for fuel in regard to the C2 versus the A400 but r=from my experience I would think that the following would apply due to the fact that the C2 is turbo fanned and travels a lot faster than the A400 it would be reasonable to assume that it uses more fuel than the A400 on a distance basis but the more complicated turboProps of the A400 would cost significantly more to buy and the servicing costs would be significantly higher with the greater number of engines making the situation worse.

 

[Rob c]

I don't doubt the competitiveness on price, but that's only part of the equation, spare's and availability rates will most certainty be looked at. they don't want to be in the same position as the early days of the NH-90 when it was taking so long for the return of replacement parts, but you wont truly know that until your in that position.

While I have not dealt with Japanese aircraft, my experience with their machinery , cars motor bikes, trucks and cars, is that their spare parts availability and delivery is very good. I would think if they did get the orders the would want to impress potential future customers.

 

[Rob c]

I was reading an article last evening from January 2017 that stated the prices of the various transport options with the stated price for the KC390 and the C2 being comparable. The article also stated that the P1 was $100 million cheaper than a P8. If this is the case I agree that Kawasaki may be well positioned to take the whole lot. If it were to happen there may be savings to allow for the acquisition of four C295W to cover off the smaller loads. Say a purchase of six P1, four C2 and four C295W. This would allow a one for one replacement of the P3. The four C2 aircraft represent a load capacity of 144 ton compared to the current 100 ton capacity of the five existing Hercules. Plus the additional 40 ton offered by the C295W provides almost a doubling of transport capacity.

Total load ability is not that relevant, what is is what you can fit in the aircraft, (hold dimensions )and payload / range, the second being very important to NZ due to the distance we are from anywhere. On the P1 I feel that it fitted the RFI slightly better than the P8 overall. However I realise that this will be hotly disputed by the P8 adherents.

 

[ngatimozart]

I was reading an article last evening from January 2017 that stated the prices of the various transport options with the stated price for the KC390 and the C2 being comparable. The article also stated that the P1 was $100 million cheaper than a P8. If this is the case I agree that Kawasaki may be well positioned to take the whole lot. If it were to happen there may be savings to allow for the acquisition of four C295W to cover off the smaller loads. Say a purchase of six P1, four C2 and four C295W. This would allow a one for one replacement of the P3. The four C2 aircraft represent a load capacity of 144 ton compared to the current 100 ton capacity of the five existing Hercules. Plus the additional 40 ton offered by the C295W provides almost a doubling of transport capacity.

If the P-8A is not acquired then that will show the direction the govt wants to take. Out of the two aircraft the P-8A would be by far the better acquisition, especially when the WOLC are taken into account. As we all are aware it leverages off the worldwide B-737 sustainment and maintenance capabilities. It also is what is currently used by 2 of the 5EYES with the UK being the 3rd to acquire it. So that gives greater synergies and commonalities if we acquire the platform. The P-1 hasn't been exported yet and offers a lower capability set than the P-8A, so based upon the platforms capability sets and Whole Of Life sustainability, the P-8A is the better platform for NZ.

A C-27J / C295 / CN235 acquisition is not really viable because they don't really meet NZG requirements and policy objectives. It comes down to whether or not such an acquisition will be in NZ's best interest and it isn't because there are better options out there. It's the issue of range and load capabilities because of the geographic aspect. Hence the requirement is for something that can haul a reasonable sized loads up to the Islands and be operated as a tactical transport, with the ability to fly long distances. So we are really looking at something that has capabilities similar to that of the C130. For the strategic lifter something similar to A400M capabilities or better is required. However if they were to go down the route, I believe that the CH-47 would be the better option because it offers a great capability set, and it can operate off the Canterbury.

That's the logical argument, however as we all know, pollies and Treasury are involved and they both have a tendency for stuffing things up and going with options that tend to prove costly, short sighted and /or not fit for purpose down the line. The $64 million question is what the new govt will do and how they will act with regard to defence. So like I said the other day, until we know what their defence intentions are, all bets are off.

I also read somewhere recently that Embrear have erected a billboard in Wellington extolling the virtues of the KC-390.