North Korean Military.

[Todjaeger]

Look at this flight of fantasies
We are counting tomahawks, dreaming thousands of sorties, countering hypothetical (fantastical) chance of Russia and China stepping in for the NK.

Well, nothing of this sort is going to happen. Nothing.

All this huffing and puffing will simply fizzle away, and disappear from the media landscape, when “masters” say to quite it down. Nothing to look at here moving on.

I wonder, who are these "masters" you are referring to? Are you referring to leaders of various nations who are able to reach some sort of acceptable solution through diplomatic means? Military means? Some other way?

Or are you claiming that these "masters" as you refer to them as, are something else entirely?

 

[weaponwh]

Look at the situation.

The Russian leadership are revelling in the situation where a rogue nation is now able to genuinely threaten it's main opponent. Why would Russia want that to change?

Same for China. Without the US interference in the SCS who would there be to oppose China's monopoly over resources there?

There is simply no will or motivation to act. I don't believe either nation gives a damn to be quite honest whether or not the peninsula is unified on South Korean terms. Both super powers are content to continue the charade of pretending they are acting but in reality they are laughing their pants off.

If DPRK were pointing missiles at Russia or China, then Kim's nation would be ashes long ago.

It's the end for the DPRK and the US knows it. Already Ambassador Haley has hinted that the UN has run it's course and she is happy now to hand the matter over to the Pentagon.

U.S. Ambassador Haley: U.N. has exhausted options on North Korea | Reuters

I reckon this is it. There is no more road to kick the can down. The US is correct in that. Kim is not interested and sees that he is holding the aces.

All we can do now is pray that the opening USAF attack is totally effective and that Seoul is spared.

Short of the US employing a naval blockade (and a land blockade) to prevent oil and major supplies getting through which in itself would most likely trigger an all out conflict then the USAF has to go in and perform a massive first strike.

I predict that we will wake up one morning soon to the news that hundreds or thousands of sorties have taken out the DPRK's missile and artillery batteries and the rest is just a matter of time before the DPRK's military machine is rendered ineffective.

of course US exhaust the option after trump tweeter with 'fire and fury' total destruction of NK in UN, rocket boy etc etc, give a middle finger to iran nuke deal etc. i mean who wouldn't be prepared when POTUS saying things like that

 

[StingrayOZ]

Not sure what viable military options are on the table.

Normally some sort of limited strike would happen. But that doesn't work when the opposing force has nuclear weapons and ICBM's.

It would be a huge commitment by the US, and one likely few allies would join or be able to meaningfully contribute. Getting rid of Kim would just be the start of it, then you have China, Russia, the North Korean elite, the North Korea forces. None of these are likely to be very happy and be compliant.

To support that kind of operation the US would have to pull resources from most other theaters.

I am now thinking this will escalate to something like a nuclear sharing agreement with South Korea and Japan. The US placing ~100 nuclear weapons within short flight time of North Korea (and China) and they will be mounted on medium range missiles. This would be in a combination of the sale of a large number of missiles, planes and additional patriot batteries to Korea and Japan.

I could see how in that situation, China and North Korea could perhaps see value in denuclearizing the peninsula.

 

[gazzzwp]

Not sure what viable military options are on the table.

Normally some sort of limited strike would happen. But that doesn't work when the opposing force has nuclear weapons and ICBM's.

It would be a huge commitment by the US, and one likely few allies would join or be able to meaningfully contribute. Getting rid of Kim would just be the start of it, then you have China, Russia, the North Korean elite, the North Korea forces. None of these are likely to be very happy and be compliant.

To support that kind of operation the US would have to pull resources from most other theaters.

I am now thinking this will escalate to something like a nuclear sharing agreement with South Korea and Japan. The US placing ~100 nuclear weapons within short flight time of North Korea (and China) and they will be mounted on medium range missiles. This would be in a combination of the sale of a large number of missiles, planes and additional patriot batteries to Korea and Japan.

I could see how in that situation, China and North Korea could perhaps see value in denuclearizing the peninsula.

Would two maybe 3 CBG's be enough to launch that kind of operation? Combined with the South Korean air force I would have thought the numbers should stack up.

 

[t68]

Would two maybe 3 CBG's be enough to launch that kind of operation? Combined with the South Korean air force I would have thought the numbers should stack up.

The problem is a military build up is overt and would take weeks if not months to plan, which may cause the North into a use or lose it. other option is submarine based but fair dinkum how many targets are there and the north will respond in kind no win situation for the South

 

[StingrayOZ]

Would two maybe 3 CBG's be enough to launch that kind of operation? Combined with the South Korean air force I would have thought the numbers should stack up.

An offensive against North Korea?

Maybe. Probably good enough to hit key nuclear and missile infrastructure, and be able to deal with the air force.

Not enough to be able to handle ground to air sites, ground defence and artillery. Not enough to deter Chinese action.

Realistically it would take a significant build up. Which is the issue now. Also allied support isn't there.

Australia is the only nation that has hinted it would back US pre-emptive action.
SK is worried, but that worry hasn't catalysed into existential fear. Japan is fearful, but isn't confident of a successful solution. UK was talking about forming a committee to assess how they would feel about it. Europeans much less so.

No doubt the US is planning and starting to move into a stronger posture. But until something changes it is not going to happen.

A North Korean atmospheric pacific thermonuclear test would certainly do it.

Moving forces are likely to trigger more extreme actions.

But doing nothing means North Korea will definitely have a viable nuclear deterrent and will use that to force all US forces out of Korea and the region. Then who knows what.

 

[supercomrade]

North Korea has been saying it has the right to shoot down US bombers flying over their coast and will do so..

North Korea Says It Has the Right to Shoot Down U.S. Warplanes

Anyone have any knowledge of what anti air systems they have, and if they have the capabilities to bring down B-1 bombers? I would imagine the system would have to be somewhat modernized because the newer variants of B-1's have low radar cross section

 

[Waylander]

What newer Versions of the B-1b? In terms if LO it has always been the same (and the sniper pod integration didn't help either...).

They just upgraded avionics, self defense suits, weapons integrations and stuff like that.

 

[StingrayOZ]

North Korea has been saying it has the right to shoot down US bombers flying over their coast and will do so..

North Korea Says It Has the Right to Shoot Down U.S. Warplanes

Anyone have any knowledge of what anti air systems they have, and if they have the capabilities to bring down B-1 bombers? I would imagine the system would have to be somewhat modernized because the newer variants of B-1's have low radar cross section

Does it really matter? Current flights are designed to be seen.

NK starts firing at US planes this is going to escalate very quickly. Its not impossible to have Hainan type incident, and the way things are now it could escalate very quickly. So for that to happen, even a Mig 15 accidentally hitting a B1 during posturing would be very bad. Not sure how much training NK pilots get these days. Or they could hit a U2..

If I lived in Seoul, you would start to draw up plans to move your family out of the city.

 

[Blackshoe]

If I lived in Seoul, you would start to draw up plans to move your family out of the city.

But good luck trying to do it under fire.

Real problem is the ROK government should have made plans to relocate the entire capital a long time ago. Even discussed doing so back when I was in Japan, IIRC. But they never get around to doing it. Just too hard, I guess. Which means they'll continue to have their capital and major city under threat of immediate attack by the DPRK, and continue to thus be held captive by the Norks' demands/threats. They can never work themselves out from that under that cloud as long as they stay in Seoul.

 

[John Fedup]

Yep, expensive and it would be a difficult relocation. However it was and remains a vastly superior solution to the endless blackmail from the North.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Yep, expensive and it would be a difficult relocation. However it was and remains a vastly superior solution to the endless blackmail from the North.

The US has moved most of its personnel out to the new base at Pyeongtaek and only has a brigade at Camp Casey. You would think that is a big sign to the locals to perhaps consider moving, or have the ability to move further away.

Its not like North Korea is something you might forget about. But it doesn't seem to drive a lot of South Korean action. The seemed to believe that they weren't in any o r much danger.

 

[swerve]

Camp Casey is 60 km north of Seoul, between Seoul & the border.

Most of the North Korean artillery can hit only the northern fringe of the city. From the nearest point of North Korea to the centre of Seoul is about 45 km, but that's from a small area, & if that was packed with artillery (& even then, it'd have to be the longest-range N. Korean artillery to reach central Seoul) it'd be rather easy to destroy. The weapons that can hit more than the relatively sparsely built-up northern suburbs are the longest range guns & artillery rockets, & ballistic missiles. While there are enough of them to kill a lot of people (thousands, maybe tens of thousands) & do a lot of damage before counter-battery fire, air strikes, & missiles put them out of action, they can't kill millions except with nuclear or maybe other non-conventional warheads.

Note that Seoul is well-supplied with shelters. I've seen reports that in Greater Seoul there's shelter space for 20 million people.

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting information, re the shelters. Can they provide some protection against chemical weapons? If so, there would seem to be a window of opportunity to end NK before full integration of their nukes to existing missiles and new ICBMs which are under development. Needless to say, an extremely risky venture. This fact has to be weighed against an eventual fully capable NK nuclear missile force, with medium and intercontinental capability. South Korea and Japan would have to decide this first.

 

[Feanor]

Camp Casey is 60 km north of Seoul, between Seoul & the border.

Most of the North Korean artillery can hit only the northern fringe of the city. From the nearest point of North Korea to the centre of Seoul is about 45 km, but that's from a small area, & if that was packed with artillery (& even then, it'd have to be the longest-range N. Korean artillery to reach central Seoul) it'd be rather easy to destroy. The weapons that can hit more than the relatively sparsely built-up northern suburbs are the longest range guns & artillery rockets, & ballistic missiles. While there are enough of them to kill a lot of people (thousands, maybe tens of thousands) & do a lot of damage before counter-battery fire, air strikes, & missiles put them out of action, they can't kill millions except with nuclear or maybe other non-conventional warheads.

Note that Seoul is well-supplied with shelters. I've seen reports that in Greater Seoul there's shelter space for 20 million people.

A quick look around suggests that they have one of the largest stockpiles of CBRN munitions on the planet. And leaving aside arty, they have a large rocket arsenal. Most of it is operational-tactical but with well enough range to threaten Seoul and other towns. Looking at a population density map of the RoK suggests that Seoul isn't the only possible target for DPRK arty. Maybe they can't kill millions, and maybe they can, but hundreds of thousands is a realistic death toll, and an unacceptably large one.

 

[Blackshoe]

A quick look around suggests that they have one of the largest stockpiles of CBRN munitions on the planet. And leaving aside arty, they have a large rocket arsenal. Most of it is operational-tactical but with well enough range to threaten Seoul and other towns. Looking at a population density map of the RoK suggests that Seoul isn't the only possible target for DPRK arty. Maybe they can't kill millions, and maybe they can, but hundreds of thousands is a realistic death toll, and an unacceptably large one.

And this is only limiting ourselves to discussion about conventional means of weapons delivery. The Norks have lots of unconventional ways of doing it, too.

 

[swerve]

The standard argument is that the conventional artillery can, by itself, destroy Seoul & kill millions. That is clearly wrong. It's derived by taking the shortest distance, the longest range, & the total number of guns & artillery rocket launchers. In practice, only a small proportion of either the guns or artillery rockets can reach anything except the northern edge of the northern suburbs even if it was all concentrated in the small salient closest to the city, & we know that the artillery & rockets are much more dispersed than that.

The estimated death toll from Iraqi missiles launched at Iranian cities was about 10 per missile. Those fired at Israel & Saudi Arabia in 1991 killed fewer people than missiles fired. This is within the range of casualties achieved by the V-2 in 1944-5.

It seems unlikely that any N. Korean weapons with conventional warheads could kill hundreds of thousands in bombardments of S. Korea. The S. Koreans wouldn't do nothing. They have a big civil defence system, they & the USA have mapped & targeted all the possible firing sites north of the DMZ, & the S. Koreans have their own bloody big artillery inventory, including rockets, plus a vastly stronger air force (& the USAF) with a lot of PGMs.

The longest range artillery rockets & the ballistic missile inventory, if tipped with non-conventional warheads, could certainly kill millions. But that is personal suicide for the entire N. Korean leadership.

 

[Feanor]

The standard argument is that the conventional artillery can, by itself, destroy Seoul & kill millions. That is clearly wrong. It's derived by taking the shortest distance, the longest range, & the total number of guns & artillery rocket launchers. In practice, only a small proportion of either the guns or artillery rockets can reach anything except the northern edge of the northern suburbs even if it was all concentrated in the small salient closest to the city, & we know that the artillery & rockets are much more dispersed than that.

I understand that and you have no argument from me there.

The estimated death toll from Iraqi missiles launched at Iranian cities was about 10 per missile. Those fired at Israel & Saudi Arabia in 1991 killed fewer people than missiles fired. This is within the range of casualties achieved by the V-2 in 1944-5.

It's hard to compare, since the Iraqis fired relatively few missiles, and were dealing with a much larger and opponent. North Korea however could launch a much larger number of missiles over a far shorter period of time. It would be interesting to see missile defense comparisons between what the US, S.A., and Israel, had then versus what the RoK has now.

It seems unlikely that any N. Korean weapons with conventional warheads could kill hundreds of thousands in bombardments of S. Korea. The S. Koreans wouldn't do nothing. They have a big civil defence system, they & the USA have mapped & targeted all the possible firing sites north of the DMZ, & the S. Koreans have their own bloody big artillery inventory, including rockets, plus a vastly stronger air force (& the USAF) with a lot of PGMs.

The longest range artillery rockets & the ballistic missile inventory, if tipped with non-conventional warheads, could certainly kill millions. But that is personal suicide for the entire N. Korean leadership.

At the point where a war of this kind breaks out, will those considerations even play a role? In what scenario are we imagining this sort of exchange taking place? Is there any serious belief that top DPRK leadership would survive in power following such a conflict? I think the DPRK would be more then willing to use chemical or biological weapons as part of the first strike, and with operational-tactical and operational level ballistic missiles they would be able to both reach and devastate downtown Seoul. I think it's a great argument for expanding RoK BMD capabilities, and I think the RoK should be looking into a national system that can cover the entire territory against a realistically sized first strike from the north.

 

[swerve]

THAAD is being deployed in S. Korea, & the S. Koreans have talked about developing their own ABM. They already have Patriot, & are planning to upgrade it,

But if I was S. Korean I'd be worried about artillery rockets, not just the bigger missiles, & thinking hard about developing or buying something to counter them, ASAP.

 

[supercomrade]

THAAD is being deployed in S. Korea, & the S. Koreans have talked about developing their own ABM. They already have Patriot, & are planning to upgrade it,

But if I was S. Korean I'd be worried about artillery rockets, not just the bigger missiles, & thinking hard about developing or buying something to counter them, ASAP.

Sorry for being so misinformed, but they have anti artillery intercept type systems?

That is insane