Buying power and nominal dollar amounts are different things. And accurately estimating DPRK GDP isn't exactly easy. At the end of the day, with no market to set prices, how do you estimate the cost of slave labor to construct a nuclear reactor?
North Korean Military.
- Thread starter F-15 Eagle
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
If the missile has enough burn time to get up to the altitudes claimed then it is just a matter of planning the trajectory to get warhead to arrive in the vicinity where you want it. Early cold war ICBM warheads relied on size for maximum effect. Modern technology allows for great accuracy so smaller warheads can be used now. NK needs to repackage its nuke to fit onto a missile and develop an accurate guidance system for a truly effective ICBM. They probably are close on the latter requirement but the former may take a few more years but NK has beaten the time estimates throughout this program so there may yet be another surprise. I guess it would hard to know short of an actual launch and detonation.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
True but in the global economy I question the accuracy of many GDP numbers. As for slave labour, maybe we need to review the estimates for the world's first ballistic missile program which was also largely a slave driven program.
Tsavo Lion
Banned Member
The Cuban Missile Crisis was defused by removal of Soviet BMs from Cuba & American BMs from Turkey, & we are still not friends with regimes in Havana & Moscow. The "Korean Missile Crisis" can be defused by removal of most American troops from SK, stopping our annual mil. exercises/shows of force & war of words there, & starting negotiations between N & S Koreas on disputed maritime border. If left alone, N Korean socialism will eventually die like it did in PRC, USSR & elsewhere.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
With NK now on the third iteration of Kim, it does not appear their BS form of socialism is going way. This dynasty seems to be too firmly entrenched. Killing him before he can breed might be the starting point to removing this dynasty.
Tsavo Lion
Banned Member
At what maximum cost can it be done? Containing it is a lot safer than trying to decapitate it. The juntas in Spain, Portugal, Albania, Greece, Latin America, Taiwan, & SK itself are history now. Kim knows that repeating Argentina's move of 1982 will doom him. OTH, the US intervened in, & tried to arrange regime changes in the ME on the cheap but ended up spending $Ts & with Mr. Trump in the WH, even w/o getting nuked in retaliation! N Korea’s 2nd ICBM test: a new normal
South Korea Hawks Push for Nuclear Weapons Development
South Korea Hawks Push for Nuclear Weapons Development
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the concerned
Active Member
With the latest developments with North Korea's missiles I want to ask would a nuc hitting the San Andreas fault be as bad as we have all been led to believe
Socialism hasn't died in the PRC. The CCP is still very firmly in charge and brooks no opposition. All that has changed in China has been more economic freedoms that were gained when Deng Xiaoping started the economic reforms.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Indeed, and its better not to expect any changes the coming years..
China is still a pure communist country.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/30/...ry-parade-xi-jinping.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Sadly that is something that is not going to happen. & the way DPRK behaves I believe RoK & Japan won't trust them, whatever the case may be. May be its just the Western media's portrayal but country & its regime does seems to come right out of a James Bond film. Removal of US forces will only create anxiety among RoK, Japan & few other regional states. Plus, why would US want to diminish its power status in the region?
Also, socialism didn't die in PRC. Tsavo Lion above pointed it out correctly. Deng Xiaoping's reforms included economic freedom with political straighjacket. On the other hand, DPRK's political & economic structure is flawed & has already failed. It exists only because of its forceful implementation. They need to adopt policies similar to PRC, adopt economic freedom, & curtail xenophobia. The US, RoK, Japan as well as PRC & Russia on their part need to stop handing sticks to DPRK. They have handed so many sticks that they haven't got much carrots to lose. The more you push them to the wall the more unpredictable & dangerous they'll get. Talks & economic facilitation are the way to go. Essentially RoK needs to engage DPRK bilaterally, without the interference from third party.
gazzzwp
Member
I totally agree.
There is one major major problem. Other nations will see belligerence as the key to making the US blink.
Iran will be next. Russia and China will be highly encouraged.
Standing firm may be the only answer if rogue nations are to be successfully dealt with. Also don't forget that these four act as a kind of indirect alliance; they all want to see US projection of power dramatically shrink.
If the US can successfully deal with any one, the others will hopefully crawl back into their caves.
There is much to be won by a success in dealing with DPRK which alas may now have to involve a military campaign.
Nukes hitting just about anywhere in the US would be as bad as it has been told. Some Russian experts did propose nuking San Andrea recently. Before that Lex Luther tried it but some illegal alien managed to stop it. Tell that to Trump (humor).
I think it would depend on how deep the seismic lines are, what is their current position, & how powerful the bomb is. Still it may or may not spur up. Under such probability DPRK, with its limited number of nukes & ICBM capability would probably prefer targeting a city instead of a fault line. A single nuke each on LA & San Francisco is enough to have US worried. During the Cuban Missile Crisis JFK refrained from attacking Soviet missiles fearing if even one survived it would still be disastrous for East Coast.
Political rhetoric aside I have not seen any actual/authentic geological survey/research specifically focusing on impact of nuke attack on San Andreas.
Bernie Sanders and former SecDef William Perry discuss a possible strategy for dealing with North Korea. High-stakes diplomacy with the immediate objective of lowering tensions and putting a cap on further NK nuke development. If successful the groundwork would be laid for rolling back their nuke capabilities. So a deal will have to be made but would the Trump WH have the vision and diplomatic skill to make it work?
https://youtu.be/vq_trWAHvXI
https://youtu.be/vq_trWAHvXI
Sounds like a waste of time, the final waste of time of many. And then N.Korea will be able to punch above its weight using nuclear ICBMs.
A naive politician like Bernie Sanders would come up with exactly that, a new diplomatic effort between the Trump administration and the brick wall that is called N.Korea. Doomed to fail.
Personally I find it unlikely that they will suspend their nuclear program so far into its development.
t68
Well-Known Member
Yep I think it's inevitable at some point the S Koreans and Japan will have to respond with there own nuclear weapons program
Every country has it's own interests. War isn't in anyone's interests. SK and Japan getting nukes raises the risks of cataclysm. Sanctions don'`t work in their present form.
It all goes back to finding common ground that accommodates everyone`s interests. It worked wih Iran and once they got what they wanted ie. end to sanctions then the other side got what it wanted ie. putting the brakes on nuke program.
It all goes back to finding common ground that accommodates everyone`s interests. It worked wih Iran and once they got what they wanted ie. end to sanctions then the other side got what it wanted ie. putting the brakes on nuke program.
Tsavo Lion
Banned Member
A mule is neither a horse nor a donkey. It's now a hybrid of socialism & capitalism, or "socialism with Chinese characteristics". After Mao's death, they realized that the Soviet theory was wrong- to build viable & real socialism, "at least 40 years of well developed capitalism was needed 1st". The USA wouldn't be borrowing so much $ from the PRC if it wasn't capitalist, even when under CCP leadership. The French Socialist Party was in power before but that didn't make France a socialist country. Likewise, Sweden is capitalist with socialist elements. In fact, ousted N. Khrushchev thought that Sweden was socialist; the USSR had centrally planned economy with most private enterprise banned, but its "socialism", supported by enormous natural resources of Siberia & the FE & the GULAG there, was mostly fictitious & fake.
Slowly, but surely, hybridization continues:
North Korea's creeping economic reforms show signs of paying off
Kim Jong-un's recipe for success: private enterprise and public executions:
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The reforms that Deng introduced were purely economic. There has been no political reform at all and the CCP will not go down that path because they have seen what the consequences have been when previously communist states have introduced political reforms. The big mistake that western commentators make about China, is that they analyse it through western eyes and lenses imposing their culture, imagery and viewpoints upon the Chinese. This is what Edward Said defined as 'Orientalism'. You have to look at China through a Chinese lens.
Tsavo Lion
Banned Member
While following economic reforms & steering centrally planned capitalism, the CCP legitimizes its rule by "keeping the country together", i.e. avoiding what happened to the USSR in 1991 & subsequent small wars In Chechnya, Dagestan, Georgia, Central Asia, & now Ukraine. Gorbachev tried to reform Soviet socialism by starting Glasnost' & Perestroika simultaneously, & as a result failed miserably to keep his country together. I've been to PRC twice, Hong Kong & Taiwan once, as well as SK & Japan in 1998-2002 period. I can understand their points of view easier after numerous discussions there. Political freedoms can wait till China can lift all its people from poverty & assure economic security; in the past, when China was split into several states, they were constantly at war & vulnerable to foreign invasions. I don't feel a need to say much more at this point!