Conflict in Yemen

wsb05

Member
Newly Emirati trained Yemeni army personnel backed by the Arab coalition (Emirates and Sudan) have seized Mocha port and city on the Red Sea securing Bab Al Mandib strait and completing the objective of operation golden arrow.

Mocha could be used as a base to move north towards Hudaydah port isolating Sanaa and Yemen from the sea and east towards Khalid bin Walid strategic military base and Taiz city.

In the North west Yemeni army backed by the Arab coalition (Saudis) made small advances in Midi and Harad.

In the east Yemeni army backed by the coalition made small advances in Nihm province but have yet to reach the strategic Naqil Bin Ghilan (the gate to Sanaa)

It is important to note that most of the original well trained and armed Yemeni army backs former president ali Abdullah SALEH and that the Arab coalition is being forced to rely on southern separatists, newly trained recruits, private armies, coalition special forces and Sudanese military for on ground operations.
In general the coalition seems to be able to advance and impose its will in open areas but faces tough challenges in mountainous areas.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
that the Arab coalition is being forced to rely on southern separatists, newly trained recruits, private armies, coalition special forces and Sudanese military for on ground operations.
They tried to get a few countries involved in the effort [Pakistan and Malaysia included] but these countries decided not to get involved in combat operations. Having as many countries involved would have been a PR coup for Saudi as it could then claim that there was a united front fighting ''terror'' [a commonly used cliche] in Yemen.

There are unconfirmed reports that 2 Malaysian C-130Hs [operating from Prince Sultan Air Base in Riyadh] that evacuated Malaysian nationals from Yemen a while ago are still in Saudi; providing logistical support. Following the participation of Malaysian troops in the Thunder of North exercise in Saudi last year there was speculation that Malaysian would be an active participation in Yemen; subsequently denied by the Malaysian Defence Minister - ''While I have been consistent in stating that Malaysia is supportive of efforts to curb militancy, our Armed Forces have never taken part in any military operation in Yemen''.

In general the coalition seems to be able to advance and impose its will in open areas but faces tough challenges in mountainous areas.
Which is exactly the same problem the Egyptians faced in the 1960's. Of course the main difference then was that the loyalists had a long and friendly border in the form of Saudi Arabia and benefited from Israeli and French airdrops; the Houthis don't but still there lots of similarities with the conflict waged in Yemen in the 1960's.

A couple of reviews on a book written about the 1960's conflict in Yemen - ''The War That Never Was''.

Why the heck not? | The Spectator

https://59steps.wordpress.com/2011/03/24/yemen-the-war-that-never-was/
 

wsb05

Member
Which is exactly the same problem the Egyptians faced in the 1960's. Of course the main difference then was that the loyalists had a long and friendly border in the form of Saudi Arabia and benefited from Israeli and French airdrops; the Houthis don't but still there lots of similarities with the conflict waged in Yemen in the 1960's.

A couple of reviews on a book written about the 1960's conflict in Yemen - ''The War That Never Was''.

Why the heck not? | The Spectator

https://59steps.wordpress.com/2011/03/24/yemen-the-war-that-never-was/
1- The borders are porous:
The naval blockade is nothing short of a joke. Iran is actively smuggling Antitank weapons and ammunition to Yemen in fishing boats or even from government controlled ports. Weapons smuggled from Aden port were confiscated.
The land border with Oman is porous and weapons smuggled from Oman were confiscated.

2- Southern-northern friction.

3- The coalition is not contributing any significant boots on the ground. Unlike Egypt, monarchies do not possess big ground forces as they are weary of military coups. Saudi Arabia's military for example is checked by the national guard. Big military purchases are simply bribes to western nations to keep them happy. The Saudis never planned on fighting any war and gulf monarch were historically reliant on protection from Britain and protection treaties signed with US (Saudi).

4- I presume the Saudis assume time will be on their side. A stronger Yemeni army will form over time and Sanaa will grow weaker by the day.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The Saudis never planned on fighting any war and gulf monarch were historically reliant on protection from Britain and protection treaties signed with US (Saudi).
They still saw the need to protect themselves against external threats : from other Arab states and of course Iran; irrespective of the fact that the West would never allow anyone to threaten the sovereignty of the Gulf Arabs. In recent times however things have changed; Iraq [despite being led by a Shia government] is no longer a threat and unless its provoked; Iran is unlikely to resort to open hostilities. Unlike in the 1980's when Iran was locked in a major war with Iraq [backed by the West and the Gulf states] the mullahs in Tehran don't talk about exporting the ''revolution'' westwards anymore.

I presume the Saudis assume time will be on their side.
True but how long can they sustain what they're doing without achieving their political and military objectives? Then again how long will Iran be able to afford maintaining its efforts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen whilst also having commitments in Lebanon? A lot will depend on the situation in Syria; just like how the war in Syria effected Iraq; the war in Syria also - to a lesser degree - effects what happens in Yemen. What Trump does in the comings months and how Russia responds also plays a big part. One thing's for sure : Mattis calling Iran the biggest sponsor of terrorism and the U.S. serving a warning to Iran is music to the ears of not just the Gulf states and Israel but also IS.

[Donald Trump Will Spark A War With Iran - Which Is Great News For Isis]
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-middle-east-isis-about-to-start-a-war-a7572891.html

[What's Behind Trump's Tough Talk On Iran?]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKNnmXfCmSQ
 

wsb05

Member
They still saw the need to protect themselves against external threats : from other Arab states and of course Iran; irrespective of the fact that the West would never allow anyone to threaten the sovereignty of the Gulf Arabs. In recent times however things have changed; Iraq [despite being led by a Shia government] is no longer a threat and unless its provoked; Iran is unlikely to resort to open hostilities. Unlike in the 1980's when Iran was locked in a major war with Iraq [backed by the West and the Gulf states] the mullahs in Tehran don't talk about exporting the ''revolution'' westwards anymore.
Yes, the west, America in particular has strengthened Saudi rivals since 2001. They entered Afghanistan, cleared the road for them in Iraq, turned a blind eye on Syria.
The USA also supported the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt and Arab spring.
Saudi access to the med. is blocked. It's eastern border with Iraq and Iran is hostile and Hormuz strait is threatened. Oman hosted secret Iranian USA meetings and was supporting Houthis. Yemen is hostile and Bab al mandib strait is threatened. Congress voted against the saudis. Western media holds negative views of the saudis. USA publicly asks the saudis to change its educational system.
Gulf monarchies populations are about 30 million. Iran's is 80 and a quarter of the gulf population is Shia. Saudi doesn't have many friends now and is surrounded by hostiles as a result of direct American meddling. The situation is very disturbing as sunnis have been ruling the Muslim world for 1400 years and Shia 10 percent of world muslims seem to be controlling traditional Arab capitals Baghdad and Damascus and encircling Mecca.

With regards to Iran, it is not behaving at all. They are doing more exporting than any point after the revolution. They are in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, yemen, Bahrain, lebanon, Palestine and trying to make problems in Saudi. They were also until recently in Sudan and Eriteria. They operate in South America and africa in the drug trafficking business.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Like any other country; Iran will do what it has to in line with its national interests; regardless of whether others approve or not. Saudi and the Gulf states do certain things that are detrimental to Iranian interests - it works both ways. Granted the Iranians weren't entirely blameless but they haven't forgotten the devastating 8 year war fought against Saddam who was financed by Gulf petrol dollars. Way before September 11th 2001; Saudi dollars played a big part sustaining the Taliban and even after September 11th Saudi dollars was making its way into Afghanistan. It was Iranian, Indian and Russian assistance that kept the Northern alliance going. Without the Northern Alliance the U.S. would have found it much harder gaining a foothold in Afghanistan.

Saudi and the Gulf states should putting all the billions spent on their armed forces to a useful cause by assisting the Iraqis defeat IS; instead they'd rather intervene in Yemen where they have accomplished zero. On the contrary I'd argue that the Saudi still have lots of friends; that what petrol dollars enable them to have : ''friends''. There is a strong pro- Saudi lobby in the U.S. and dozens of countries going out of their way to ingratiate themselves with Saudi Arabia. For the Saudi and the other Gulf states the ''heretic'' Iranians are ''hostile but the Iranians can also provide legitimate reasons why the Gulf Arab states are themselves ''hostile'' to Iran. The Saudis were so disappointed that Obama refused having a go at Iran's nuclear facilities to the extent that they reportedly agreed to Israel using Saudi airspace to reach Iran; now they're hoping that Trump will do it.
 

wsb05

Member
Like any other country; Iran will do what it has to in line with its national interests; regardless of whether others approve or not. Saudi and the Gulf states do certain things that are detrimental to Iranian interests - it works both ways. Granted the Iranians weren't entirely blameless but they haven't forgotten the devastating 8 year war fought against Saddam who was financed by Gulf petrol dollars. Way before September 11th 2001; Saudi dollars played a big part sustaining the Taliban and even after September 11th Saudi dollars was making its way into Afghanistan. It was Iranian, Indian and Russian assistance that kept the Northern alliance going. Without the Northern Alliance the U.S. would have found it much harder gaining a foothold in Afghanistan.

Saudi and the Gulf states should putting all the billions spent on their armed forces to a useful cause by assisting the Iraqis defeat IS; instead they'd rather intervene in Yemen where they have accomplished zero. On the contrary I'd argue that the Saudi still have lots of friends; that what petrol dollars enable them to have : ''friends''. There is a strong pro- Saudi lobby in the U.S. and dozens of countries going out of their way to ingratiate themselves with Saudi Arabia. For the Saudi and the other Gulf states the ''heretic'' Iranians are ''hostile but the Iranians can also provide legitimate reasons why the Gulf Arab states are themselves ''hostile'' to Iran. The Saudis were so disappointed that Obama refused having a go at Iran's nuclear facilities to the extent that they reportedly agreed to Israel using Saudi airspace to reach Iran; now they're hoping that Trump will do it.
Mr. Strum, Saudi policy has always been until Obama an extension of US policy and not the other way around. The Saudis see that:

1- The awakening of Catholicism in Europe and Islam in central Asia was a US policy to undermine the soviet union. Saudi Arabia was financing on behalf of the CIA x "Afghan freedom fighters" nowadays "Terrorists".
If you go back to the history books you will notice that in exception of a brief period in World war 1. Western Europe (Spain and Italy excl.) had always supported the caliphate against central Europe and the Russians.

2- Pakistan and India separation was favoured by the Brits and Pakistan was later protected by the Americans via Saudi financing.

3- The division of Pashtuns between Afghanistan and Pakistan was a line drawn by the British. The Northern borders were a line of separation between the British and the Russians. Afghanistan is inherently unstable because it doesn't have many Afghans in it but rather a combination of different Turkic and Persian tribes.

4- Iran-Iraq war saw western support for Iraq to weaken a highly armed nascent anti-american Islamic revolution. They had killed and kidnapped many French, US etc. nationals in Lebanon and Iran. At the same time the west supported Iran (Iran gate) to prevent a total collapse and maintain an equilibrium but with a weaker Iran.

5- The US had the choice of alliances in the middle east with a vast array of secular and nationalistic movements. Egypt's Nasser looked for an alliance with the US but was refused and had to resort to an alliance with the soviets to industrialise Egypt. The US preferred to ally itself with the Saudis at that time.

6- Salafi Sunni Saudi Arabia supported US policy in Yemen against Nasser who was fighting against a Shia Mullali government to establish a secular government.

7- Saudi Arabia has never officially sponsored any attack against US interest unlike Iran and Iran affiliates who engaged in Embassy burning, westerners kidnapping and killing campaigns.

8- The sunni insurgency in Iraq was armed by the Syrian (Iran proxy) and were entering Iraq from Syria.

9- There is a distinction in Saudi Arabia between the ruling family and the clerics. King AbdulAziz had resorted to Wahabi ideology to unite historically at odd tribesmen in the name of religion to form Saudi Arabia. He later fought them (supported by the British) and won over them as they wished to continue their Jihad at that time against British protectorates and beyond. Ever since there is a distinction and a balance in Saudi between the two. Saud family is in a position to declare the return of the caliphate that is against western interest but has never wished to do so to the contrary it has fought the Muslim brotherhood and others.

10- Saudi is not arming opposition in Iran, but Iran is actively arming Shia and Sunni opposition in Saudi, GCC and Arab world.

As you notice Saudis were always financing western policy in the Muslim world and beyond. Of course they will feel betrayed when they see Americans siding with the Persians even in Yemen!
 

Rimasta

Member
Some more details emerge from the Navy SEAL raid in Yemen from a journalist who recently returned from the targeted village. Sounds like the version given by the villagers is plausible and they were actually allies of the Saudi's against the Houthi's. When the raid began, the villagers seem to have assumed they were under attack by Houthi rebels. They (the villagers) do concede a small Al-Qaeda cell was there but most of the villagers considered them small time operatives, leaving the villagers mostly confused as to why they were targeted. Not much indication supporting the claim of a fortified village, but unsurpringly in countries like Yemen, everyone is armed.

Journalist returns from village raided by US Navy Seals - BBC News
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Since they are armed, maybe they should kick "small-time" terrorists out of their villages. Then they won't be so confused after being targetted by raids or air bombings.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Since they are armed, maybe they should kick "small-time" terrorists out of their villages. Then they won't be so confused after being targetted by raids or air bombings.
There's a big difference between civilians with some weapons and an armed organized force. There's also a difference between what constitutes "small-time" for the US military and for a bunch of armed locals. Also these people have lives, families, and if you chase out the little local armed group, a bigger one might come back for revenge.

Don't get me wrong it's not impossible, it's just strange to expect it.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
7- Saudi Arabia has never officially sponsored any attack against US interest unlike Iran and Iran affiliates who engaged in Embassy burning, westerners kidnapping and killing campaigns.
I guess the key word is "officially". IMO, Saudi Arabia is the West's enemy. BTW, who were almost all of the 9/11 terrorists?

9- There is a distinction in Saudi Arabia between the ruling family and the clerics. King AbdulAziz had resorted to Wahabi ideology to unite historically at odd tribesmen in the name of religion to form Saudi Arabia.
Yep, one's in the closet, the other isn't.

Ever since there is a distinction and a balance in Saudi between the two.
Right, one funds ISIS and the other pretends to be outraged at ISIS.

Saud family is in a position to declare the return of the caliphate that is against western interest but has never wished to do so to the contrary it has fought the Muslim brotherhood and others.[/QUOTE}

They wish they could be it would be the end of them.
 

wsb05

Member
I guess the key word is "officially". IMO, Saudi Arabia is the West's enemy. BTW, who were almost all of the 9/11 terrorists?



Yep, one's in the closet, the other isn't.



Right, one funds ISIS and the other pretends to be outraged at ISIS.

Saud family is in a position to declare the return of the caliphate that is against western interest but has never wished to do so to the contrary it has fought the Muslim brotherhood and others.[/QUOTE}

They wish they could be it would be the end of them.
I would appreciate if your reply were to contain in addition to prejudice and personal opinion an analysis and an argument. I would recommend you to follow on geopolitics and US thinkitanks to get an insight.

Hint: English alliances with some Arabian sheikhs predate oil.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I would appreciate if your reply were to contain in addition to prejudice and personal opinion an analysis and an argument. I would recommend you to follow on geopolitics and US thinkitanks to get an insight.
Interesting, you didn't respond to "the 9/11 terrorists". I'm not surprised. As for US think-tanks, many, not all, of their reports should be rolled up and used as a$$wipe.

Hint: English alliances with some Arabian sheikhs predate oil.
]

Early 1900s alliances, it's now the early 2000s, nobody GAF.
 

wsb05

Member
Interesting, you didn't respond to "the 9/11 terrorists". I'm not surprised. As for US think-tanks, many, not all, of their reports should be rolled up and used as a$$wipe.] Early 1900s alliances, it's now the early 2000s, nobody GAF.
Al Qaeda was CIA funded and trained. What would the Saudi government have to gain from helping or turning a blind eye on terrorist attacks on the US and subsequent wave of terrorist attacks on Saudi proper?!
Much didn't change from the 1900s. It would still be the west backstabbing the alliance and not the Saudis.
 

chrislee

New Member
Having the most powerful army in the region Saudis expected 'quick, victorious war' in Yemen. But something went wrong and now Arab coalition is in stalemate. It is obvious that Saudis get their foot in protracted war which is unpopular thing by itself (and expensive enough). From the other hand they can`t just say something like 'mission accomplished' and to withdraw forces. In this case nobody can guarantee that Houthis will cease attacks on Saudi borderlands.
 

Ocean1Curse

Member
Al Qaeda was CIA funded and trained. What would the Saudi government have to gain from helping or turning a blind eye on terrorist attacks on the US and subsequent wave of terrorist attacks on Saudi proper?!
Much didn't change from the 1900s. It would still be the west backstabbing the alliance and not the Saudis.
Originally the US congress lead by Charles Nesbitt funded the Northen Alliance who went on to vctimise the people of afghanistan, then the people went on to support the Taliban so they could get rid of a nasty orginisation during a period the New York times discribed as the bloodiest period in afghan history where the northern Aliance killed 50,000 afghans ect. Not once was the CIA and al qaeda mentioned. I mean they are mentioned, I know people said al qaeda and CIA funding but I have know idea what "and" means because the CIA almost certainly did not train al qaeda. The CIA and other western militaries have a long history of cooperatin with other militaries but the CIA almost certainly did not train the al qaeda, the CIA may have trained people who defected to al qaeda but its a stretch to say the CIA trains or eqiups ect.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yemen is getting more and more interesting. The Houthis are using drones to attack the radars of Patriot batteries, to enable ballistic missile strikes to continue.

ХуÑиты иÑпользуют БПЛРпротив ЗРК Patriot - Юрий ЛÑмин

Saudi light armor convoys continue to be easy pickings for the Houthis. Interesting that in this case the attack was inside Saudi Arabia itself.

diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/407169.html

Meanwhile a mysterious Apache gunship shot up a ship full of Somalian refugees.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ó áåðåãîâ Éåìåíà áîåâîé âåðòîëåò ðàññòðåëÿë ñóäíî, ïîëíîå ñîìàëèéñêèõ áåæåíöåâ
diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/394755.html
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Apparently Scotland Yard are examining allegations of Saudi Arabian war crimes in the Yemeni conflict. At present they are undertaking preliminary work to ascertain whether or not criminal prosecutions could be brought. The Saudis will highly unimpressed with this development.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
When have western principles prevailed over saudi oil money? But I hope there is a diplomatic row and more people find out about the war in Yemen.
 
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