North Korean Military.

[cdxbow]

North Korea seems to be increasingly aggressive with it's increasingly capable ballistic missile launches, nuclear tests and just recently the assassination Kim Jong-nam with VX (nice way to send a message look what we've got). China doesn't seem to have much sway, with many of it's supporters in NK eliminated in recent years. This article suggests China really can't control NK in any significant way. North Korea Doesn’t Trust China an Inch | Foreign Policy

So if China can't control the North Koreans, and sanctions from the west are ineffective, there doesn't seem to be any diplomatic means to reign in the North's nuclear & ballistic missile programs, then some form of military action by the US becomes more likely. What are the US options short of war?

To my mind, Mr Trump would be much more likely to consider military action than Mr Obama, so I wonder if Kim Jong Un has misjudged the situation a bit and overplayed his hand this time.

 

[rjtjrt]

North Korea seems to be increasingly aggressive with it's increasingly capable ballistic missile launches, nuclear tests and just recently the assassination Kim Jong-nam with VX (nice way to send a message look what we've got). China doesn't seem to have much sway, with many of it's supporters in NK eliminated in recent years. This article suggests China really can't control NK in any significant way. North Korea Doesn’t Trust China an Inch | Foreign Policy

So if China can't control the North Koreans, and sanctions from the west are ineffective, there doesn't seem to be any diplomatic means to reign in the North's nuclear & ballistic missile programs, then some form of military action by the US becomes more likely. What are the US options short of war?

To my mind, Mr Trump would be much more likely to consider military action than Mr Obama, so I wonder if Kim Jong Un has misjudged the situation a bit and overplayed his hand this time.

One option is to convince Kim Jong-un that US is not far off launching a nuclear strike including leadership decapitation, and there is no longer any room to believe a non nuclear military strike can be avoided.
Then offer Kim and his leadership guaranteed safe passage and guaranteed indefinite access to their assets that they have secreted outside NK, supervised by a trusted 3rd party such as Switzerland.
Possibly self interest on Kim's part would prevail, or failing this it could precipitate a coup in NK by those that want to take up this option of a comfortable and secure life in west.
It would help if China was onside and was assured they would be able to fill the power vacuum and chaos in NK would be avoided.

 

[King Wally]

I wouldn't mind calling their bluff and going in for a targeted air raid vs their WMD facilities. Lets be honest if NK were in the middle east Israel would have wrapped this up years ago with such a move.

 

[John Fedup]

One option is to convince Kim Jong-un that US is not far off launching a nuclear strike including leadership decapitation, and there is no longer any room to believe a non nuclear military strike can be avoided.
Then offer Kim and his leadership guaranteed safe passage and guaranteed indefinite access to their assets that they have secreted outside NK, supervised by a trusted 3rd party such as Switzerland.
Possibly self interest on Kim's part would prevail, or failing this it could precipitate a coup in NK by those that want to take up this option of a comfortable and secure life in west.
It would help if China was onside and was assured they would be able to fill the power vacuum and chaos in NK would be avoided.

I vaguely recall that Saddam was offered a deal to take his stolen billions and leave. The problem was without his huge security apparatus he would never have been safe anywhere outside Iraq, too many relatives of victims would have been looking for payback. In Kim's case it is even worse, generations of relatives looking for payback.

 

[cdxbow]

One option is to convince Kim Jong-un that US is not far off launching a nuclear strike including leadership decapitation, and there is no longer any room to believe a non nuclear military strike can be avoided.
Then offer Kim and his leadership guaranteed safe passage and guaranteed indefinite access to their assets that they have secreted outside NK, supervised by a trusted 3rd party such as Switzerland.
Possibly self interest on Kim's part would prevail, or failing this it could precipitate a coup in NK by those that want to take up this option of a comfortable and secure life in west.
It would help if China was onside and was assured they would be able to fill the power vacuum and chaos in NK would be avoided.

Good plan, but Chinese influence has waned and I am not sure he would take any offer. Some people just want to see the world burn.

I wouldn't mind calling their bluff and going in for a targeted air raid vs their WMD facilities. Lets be honest if NK were in the middle east Israel would have wrapped this up years ago with such a move.

Very true. Perhaps the very impetuous Mr Trump may take a leaf out of the Israeli play book. It's got that 'perfect storm' feeling about the Korean peninsula at the moment.

 

[John Fedup]

I wouldn't mind calling their bluff and going in for a targeted air raid vs their WMD facilities. Lets be honest if NK were in the middle east Israel would have wrapped this up years ago with such a move.

The 100,000 artillery tubes aimed at Seoul are just as big a problem as the WMD sites. Other than a nuke strike, I don't see any military option working now. Even prior to NK getting the bomb there was no good option which is why the useless diplomacy route was taken knowing full well it wouldn't last.

Probably the only question now is which country will nuke NK, China or the US? I think China now sees NK (i.e. Kim) as their biggest threat. China doesn't want to lose face admitting it however.

Yes, Israel has proven in the past how to deal with an inpending nuclear threat when they bombed Saddam's reactor years ago. Hit early well before things get going. However, unlike SK, Israel didn't have to worry about millions of artillery rounds raining down on their population centres afterwards. Only massive pressure from the the US has prevented them from doing the same to Iran. Now it is likely too late as most of Iran's program is spread all over the place in hardened sites. If Iran gets the bomb, that will be Obama's legacy.

 

[ngatimozart]

Let's bring the discussion back to reality please. Talk about nukes or regime change is not ideal or really acceptable.

 

[t68]

Let's bring the discussion back to reality please. Talk about nukes or regime change is not ideal or really acceptable.

Yep got to agree I reckon even young Kim knows what MAD means, he got more to worry about an internal up rising, now if that were to happen how could the US assist to achieve the end result.

But could the south even afford a reunification?

 

[John Fedup]

For three generations now the Kim dynasty has been abusing NK. The latest Kim is proving to be the worst of the lot. He has even killed pro-Chinese factions within NK. As for internal actions, it just does not seem possible. Do intelligence agencies even know what a Kim decapitation would look like? Would the inner circle regroup, carry out Kim's dying orders, or fall apart? If the regime were to collapse, would China try to establish new dictatorship that would abide by Chinese interests or are the costs to deal with a failed state not worth the trouble? Perhaps it is better to saddle SK with the resulting mess.

As for reunification, I would think the costs and difficulties would vastly exceed what West Germany faced. SK leaders likely are not looking forward to this eventuality.

 

[John Fedup]

This link contains an interesting comment about possible cyber attacks by the US on NK's missile development program. It also states that NK deficiencies in manufacturing could explain early missile failures.

The Trump Administration's Ire Has Not Deterred North Korea's Nuclear Goals | The National Interest

 

[swerve]

The 100,000 artillery tubes aimed at Seoul are just as big a problem as the WMD sites. .

There aren't 100,000 artillery tubes aimed at Seoul. That's a hell of a lot more than North Korea has altogether, very many of them aren't on that section of the border, & even if they were, the majority don't have the range to reach Seoul.

Estimates of the number of artillery pieces, including artillery rocket launchers, with the range to hit central Seoul from north of the DMZ range from hundreds up to a thousand or so. There are also shorter-range pieces which can hit the northern suburbs, & very ,many which can't even reach that far. Southern Seoul is out of range of all but North Korea's ballistic missiles.

 

[Ranger25]

There aren't 100,000 artillery tubes aimed at Seoul. That's a hell of a lot more than North Korea has altogether, very many of them aren't on that section of the border, & even if they were, the majority don't have the range to reach Seoul.

Estimates of the number of artillery pieces, including artillery rocket launchers, with the range to hit central Seoul from north of the DMZ range from hundreds up to a thousand or so. There are also shorter-range pieces which can hit the northern suburbs, & very ,many which can't even reach that far. Southern Seoul is out of range of all but North Korea's ballistic missiles.

Agreed, on the Tube capabilities

IMO the best way will be to let them wither away.

And when one talks of millions or rounds raining down in the south you have to assume no ROK response.

The ROK military is a modern, connected, well trained and lead combined arms force. All routes Sounth from the DMZ are VERY well defended with fixed sites and barriers designed to slow and stop the aging (1960s) level army of the North. The ROKs are in a constant state of readiness and, in the last at least, would deploy for field training with supply trucks of live munitions along in case attacked while in the field. The US 2nd ID usually did the same.

The ROK Air Force is a well armed and trained force with modern F15Ks as well as a large number of F16s. The North has limited real ADA.

The Roks also have large numbers of JDAMs and JSOWs capable of eliminating large areas(think highway if death from Gulf War 1)

The ROK Army and Marines are also well trained and equipped. The Marines are especially good.

None of this is the mention the US presence air ground, naval, on and around the peninsula.

 

[supercomrade]

Estimates of the number of artillery pieces, including artillery rocket launchers, with the range to hit central Seoul from north of the DMZ range from hundreds up to a thousand or so. There are also shorter-range pieces which can hit the northern suburbs, & very ,many which can't even reach that far. Southern Seoul is out of range of all but North Korea's ballistic missiles.

But there is not missile shield that is 100% accurate. Even the THAAD that they put there and currently putting more is not 100%.

And even if the number is not 100k,hundreds and thousands that is still scary in my opinion. Seoul is extremely dense and populated.


And on a side note, does Russia not have any political pull over NK? I am guessing the answer is no, but why? They share borders with each other and Vladivostok which is a major Russian city is close to their border. I doubt Russia would just sit back in an even of a major conflict happening right next door like that.

But back to my question, how does Russia not have any political pull with them? I remember specifically my grandfather who was a sailor, was sailing on a big Russian ship in the mid to late 90's with loads full of food aid.

 

[John Fedup]

Nobody seems to have any pull, even China. Russia has enough stuff on their plate. NK would be all drain, no gain for Russia. NK is more in China's sphere and Russia should leave NK to their most important ally.

 

[SouthernSky]

But there is not missile shield that is 100% accurate. Even the THAAD that they put there and currently putting more is not 100%.

And even if the number is not 100k,hundreds and thousands that is still scary in my opinion. Seoul is extremely dense and populated.


And on a side note, does Russia not have any political pull over NK? I am guessing the answer is no, but why? They share borders with each other and Vladivostok which is a major Russian city is close to their border. I doubt Russia would just sit back in an even of a major conflict happening right next door like that.

But back to my question, how does Russia not have any political pull with them? I remember specifically my grandfather who was a sailor, was sailing on a big Russian ship in the mid to late 90's with loads full of food aid.

And who said Russia is unhappy with the distraction that North Korea provides? I'm sure comrade Putin is happy to play along at this stage.

 

[alexsa]

Nobody seems to have any pull, even China. Russia has enough stuff on their plate. NK would be all drain, no gain for Russia. NK is more in China's sphere and Russia should leave NK to their most important ally.

There appears to be evidence that the decline in China trade is beginning to really bite. The fact that China is actually moving to impose sanctions as specified should not be underestimate as NK is dependent on trade. If they move back to famine and solders families start to suffer it could get interesting. NK distancing itself from China is a risky move for the regime as they may be puttting their own economic survival at risk.

Containment is the best option. If they stay our of sorts with China NK are in for a rough economic ride. If a message is needed then shooting down some of the missiles would be and option ....... but if the interceptions fails you may simply embolden them.

 

[supercomrade]

And who said Russia is unhappy with the distraction that North Korea provides? I'm sure comrade Putin is happy to play along at this stage.

That is true but at the same time it's causing too much of a distraction. It's making US military get more and more involved. They are already putting more THAAD missile defenses there.

And in the event of a full scale conflict that might not be good for Russia. Imagine a unified Korea. There goes Russia's buffer zone and now they can put THAAD right next to Vladivostok(and I realize what I am saying has a very very very low chance of happening)

 

[ngatimozart]

That is true but at the same time it's causing too much of a distraction. It's making US military get more and more involved. They are already putting more THAAD missile defenses there.

And in the event of a full scale conflict that might not be good for Russia. Imagine a unified Korea. There goes Russia's buffer zone and now they can put THAAD right next to Vladivostok(and I realize what I am saying has a very very very low chance of happening)

There won't be a unified Korea. The PRC will not allow it under any circumstances.

 

[t68]

There won't be a unified Korea. The PRC will not allow it under any circumstances.

If there is an internal uprising they may not have a choice, don't think they could handle another Tiananmen Square on a larger scale. This high ranking defector seems to think its possabile.


North Korean defector predicts future uprising against Kim Jong Un - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

 

[gf0012-aust]

If there is an internal uprising they may not have a choice, don't think they could handle another Tiananmen Square on a larger scale. This high ranking defector seems to think its possabile.


North Korean defector predicts future uprising against Kim Jong Un - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

any uprising in north korea will make assads treatment of rebel syrians look like thanksgiving