Russia's Military Expansion

[Feanor]

And yet many rank and file Russians, especially the older ones, cling to ideas of Soviet-style entitlement.

Of course they do. The USSR was, objectively speaking, better for a huge chunk of the population. And to top it off, those old enough to remember have rose tinted glasses (it's just natural to remember the good and forget the bad), and those too young to remember have been raised on fairy tales about the before time, and the great long ago, when trees were tall and the country was great. Modern day Soviet nostalgia is in many ways a product of the mythology surrounding the USSR.

There's also the fact that the climate and geography inevitably leave their mark on the population. Russia is never going to be a country of lots of small private houses, like an American suburb. The heating bill would be insane. Even with the giant multi-storied buildings and central heating, Russia still subsidizes heating and electricity, because if they didn't then the population would be literally unable to avoid the basic means of sustenance. This is, to a lesser degree, true of Ukraine also. It's why the IMF demanded that they raise their electric and gas bills for the citizens, and why ordinary Ukrainians are so pissed right now. But that's a separate discussion. The point is that when ordinary people privatized those giant Soviet apartments, they're left with buildings that have an expiration date, and have no financial means to replace them. Which is why, for example, the Russian government often absorbs the cost of housing. Remember, this is the same government whose officials are notoriously corrupt. This has less to do with a desire to bring the USSR back and more to do with basic reality.

That having been said, the current generation is already very different from the Soviet one, and the clock can't be turned back. The future might carry some of the symbols and use some of the same words as the USSR did, but bringing back the USSR is basically impossible. The Soviet people only became the Soviet people after a bloody civil war, a decade of purges, and finally the crucible of the Great Patriotic War.

 

[chris]

So I don't think it is a question of relative values but more a question of which is the better system. I realise that Russia has moved on from Socialism now into an Oligarchical style of capitalism and I also realise that the west has it's problems.

And yet a system that labels certain private corporations as "to big to fail", entitled to continuous bail outs by tax payers money and selective funding by creative ways of printing money (QE), is the definition of "true captialism" and not an Oligarchy?

 

[swerve]

Putin is putting a lot of pressure on those Oligarchs & those under them, many of whom are ancient history now. Ukrainians are following in the footsteps of other Central Europeans who joined NATO- they made a mistake by not becoming neutral like Austria or Sweden & thus antagonized Russia, shooting themselves in the foot. It may become a self-fulfilled prophecy: by hosting NATO bases, they became potential targets- the outcome they tried to avoid! Some in Poland, Hungary & Bulgaria already realized that there is more to loose than to gain. NATO will use them as cannon fodder & importers of arms, but won't be able to protect them just because the Article 9 is on the books. Russia has been warning all of them & NATO leaders for years, like that Soviet cartoon mellow cat Leopold done with mice: "lads, let's live peacefully!" Let's remember that in the long run, the West was never able to decisively defeat Russia. Those who don't learn from history are bound to repeat it!

East European countries that tried to be neutral in the past found themselves invaded & subjected to horrors: mass murders by the state, dispossession, deportations . . . The Baltic states, for example, see NATO as the only alternative to being client states of Russia, forced to do whatever Russia orders them to or suffer dire consequences. They remember their own pasts, see what's been done to Georgia & Ukraine, look at their own Russian minorities & Russian-backed groups claiming 'autonomous Russian regions' including half their countries, & shudder at the thought of being left at Russia's mercy.

North wind & sun . . .

 

[SolarWind]

I see the problem here. You think that soviet was some sort of unnatural condition of Russian culture. When actually it was natural condition or Russian culture, soviet culture was a logical extension of our culture. There are historical and cultural reasons fror that. Thats why it wont disappear even when we started to build capitalism.

Poll of recent years in Russia say, that up to 80 percent of people stand for restoration of USSR. It does not happen becouse elite is actually againts this. The elite, that u think is being soviet style in Russia actually is the main antisoviet force in inner politics.That where you are wrong.

It is natural to think that the Russian elite would be very much against the return to communism, since they would stand to lose the most among others with private property.

I would be interested to find out why you think that the "soviet culture was a logical extension" of Russian culture. I would think that a bloody red revolution, a bloody red expropriation, and a bloody red civil war were anything but natural or logical. If things went naturally or logically, Russia could keep its democratically elected Duma and its free society, after the last Czar resigned, and slowly work towards greater equality. The soviets had no remorse in taking back the promised liberties, land, and capital stock from the working class and the peasants shortly after the civil war ended and their power was solidified.

 

[SolarWind]

Of course they do. The USSR was, objectively speaking, better for a huge chunk of the population. And to top it off, those old enough to remember have rose tinted glasses (it's just natural to remember the good and forget the bad), and those too young to remember have been raised on fairy tales about the before time, and the great long ago, when trees were tall and the country was great. Modern day Soviet nostalgia is in many ways a product of the mythology surrounding the USSR.

There's also the fact that the climate and geography inevitably leave their mark on the population. Russia is never going to be a country of lots of small private houses, like an American suburb. The heating bill would be insane. Even with the giant multi-storied buildings and central heating, Russia still subsidizes heating and electricity, because if they didn't then the population would be literally unable to avoid the basic means of sustenance. This is, to a lesser degree, true of Ukraine also. It's why the IMF demanded that they raise their electric and gas bills for the citizens, and why ordinary Ukrainians are so pissed right now. But that's a separate discussion. The point is that when ordinary people privatized those giant Soviet apartments, they're left with buildings that have an expiration date, and have no financial means to replace them. Which is why, for example, the Russian government often absorbs the cost of housing. Remember, this is the same government whose officials are notoriously corrupt. This has less to do with a desire to bring the USSR back and more to do with basic reality.

That having been said, the current generation is already very different from the Soviet one, and the clock can't be turned back. The future might carry some of the symbols and use some of the same words as the USSR did, but bringing back the USSR is basically impossible. The Soviet people only became the Soviet people after a bloody civil war, a decade of purges, and finally the crucible of the Great Patriotic War.

Housing and heating subsidies probably make good sense for Russia. Things could never be the same as they were in USSR, but some patterns may repeat.

 

[Strannik]

It is natural to think that the Russian elite would be very much against the return to communism, since they would stand to lose the most among others with private property.

I would be interested to find out why you think that the "soviet culture was a logical extension" of Russian culture. I would think that a bloody red revolution, a bloody red expropriation, and a bloody red civil war were anything but natural or logical. ...

This is not a simple matter. The qualified answer to your questions would probably made a good PHD.
Still, I will try

First off, October revolution of 1917 was the product, the culmination of many very complex developments. Both external: WW1; influence of Western European social democratic and communist ideologies and internal : tectonic shift in workforce caused by industrialisation; grows of ambitions of parts of society representing new money, industrial capitalists, as well as smaller private producers in agrarian sector. The socio-political structure of czarist Russia simply become too small and restrictive to contain Russian society in the transition. The change was inevitable. Practical ways to reform, in theory, could be different. But I tend to agree with the school of thought that by the 1914 – 1917 the whole immense transition was all set. At that stage it was beyond human capacity to change anything let alone much.

Second, flows from the first. Particularities of the transition like bloody revolution (which itself was not at all bloody) and certainly bloody civil war were if you wish “collateral damage“. The fabric of that society at that time once set into motion simply could not get to the end of transformation without such dramatic side effects. So forget about this bloody revolutionists, this is simply given. The role of communist was significant in influencing the transition. But they could not start it or stop it. However political genius of Vladimir Ulyanov and his team allowed them to a small degree to steer the monstrous transition in the desired direction. Which ultimately 20 years later brought Russia into industrial age. With education available for all and almost total literacy. Think about this 20 years! Instead of two hundred years, which by the way Russia did not had. Was it cruel? It sure was. Could it be done differently? Probably not.

Now the last comment on soviet ideology being logical extension of Russian culture. This is different topic altogether. That is another PHD work  . I do not quite agree with this sentence. However I can see where its coming from.
First, preindustrial Russian village was organised as communal farm, the Israeli kibbutz being an approximation.
Second, I think, in extremely shallow terms, communist ideology in Russia morphed into surrogate form of fake religion. What it was faking, on some points resembled Christianity. However this is only passing similarity. Yet it was sufficient to capture significant portion of traditionally Christian Russian society.

 

[Kirza_rus]

I would be interested to find out why you think that the "soviet culture was a logical extension" of Russian culture. I would think that a bloody red revolution, a bloody red expropriation, and a bloody red civil war were anything but natural or logical. If things went naturally or logically, Russia could keep its democratically elected Duma and its free society, after the last Czar resigned, and slowly work towards greater equality. The soviets had no remorse in taking back the promised liberties, land, and capital stock from the working class and the peasants shortly after the civil war ended and their power was solidified.

Becouse there were 2 revolution in Russia in 1917. First in february leaded to creation of so called democratic goverment which it was not. That goverment leaded country to complete collapse with intrigues and self insolvency. (there are a lot of historical works on that)

The reds just took the power that was lying on the ground after Kerensky. They did not overthrow Russia in chaos, the chaos was already created by Tsar weekness, Kerensky and others.

You say that reds took their promises back, when actually they gave the people more freedom then they ever imagined even in best capitalist country in the world in Europe. You are wrong here. The farmer boy now was able to become a physics scientist, those are opportunities that are more valuable that just amount of consumption.

As for logical extension - the Russia is a country where it was almost no private property for ordinary people, instead it was community property. Thats why it was not european mode of production, but it also was not the asiatic mode of production, becouse histioricaly we had enough water and didnt have to create huge water constructions, and more other reasons that communist idea fitted for Russian civilisation...

Second, I think, in extremely shallow terms, communist ideology in Russia morphed into surrogate form...

Thats true


If anybody stills thinks that it was reds who started antigoverment violence in post Tsar Russia - google "Kornilov affair".

 

[SolarWind]

The natural tendency of Russian people toward Soviet Communism is most unsettling if true. Would you say that Putin and the elite are the only barriers to a popular revolt and return to USSR or something similar? Why do you think Soviet Communist Russia needed to expand militarily or politically and dream of European conquest? Why would modern Russia want to expand militarily? Do they want to expand militarily now, and how far?

 

[Kirza_rus]

The natural tendency of Russian people toward Soviet Communism is most unsettling if true. Would you say that Putin and the elite are the only barriers to a popular revolt and return to USSR or something similar? Why do you think Soviet Communist Russia needed to expand militarily or politically and dream of European conquest? Why would modern Russia want to expand militarily? Do they want to expand militarily now, and how far?

Mostly it is nostalgia, but for past years revanchist organizations started to appear. Those are not just for restoration of USSR, but for creating something new. They want revanche for humiliation of the past years. For creating something like USSR it need not only support of people, but a locomotive that is going to lead it. Now there is no such a locomotive, but who know maybe it will apper someday if tensions will continue.

From my point of view russian elite can be nowadays describes so: antisoviet, proWest, but deeply offended from western moves for past years. Dont mistake thinking that now russian elite is going to create some crazy militarist county, it wont. Putin is not a militarist he is one of the most cautious leaders of our state, he stands for interests of Russia (people feel that it is so, thats why he has ~80% of support), yes, but he is not a madman and he can be negotiated with.

Putin is so cautious that for military parade of Victory Day in 2014, when tensions were really hot, the symbol of that day - red star was changed for dove of peace. So Russia wont seem too aggressive. (No he couldnt cancel military parade at all, it is the most important day in our country)

Expansion is not a thing today for russian people, Crimea was not valued as an expansion, but a restoration of historical justice. Its like if America lost somehow 1 state, becouse of political instability and now took it back. Nobody really demands further expansion moves, except madmen like Dugin, if you heard about him.

Military expansion - Russian dont have such economial capabilites to create bases all around world like USA, it is obvious.

We gave up a lot of capabilities including military in 90s for the project of becoming the part of Europe. When it started to become clear, that project failed, many become outraged, becouse it turned out great sacrifices were for nothing. So many decided that atleast we should now take back those sacrifices.

Nobody in Russia cares about Baltics states, Poland etc. We care for balance of nuclear capabilities. Prevention of any sort of nuclear, missile superiority, is vital and very painful subject in our country. Any sign of tresspassing it will get a reaction.

It basic logic - today we get a weak missile defence close to borders, if we dont react - tomorrow we ll get a strong missile defence close to borders.

 

[SolarWind]

Mostly it is nostalgia, but for past years revanchist organizations started to appear. Those are not just for restoration of USSR, but for creating something new. They want revanche for humiliation of the past years.
...

From my point of view russian elite can be nowadays describes so: antisoviet, proWest, but deeply offended from western moves for past years.
...

We gave up a lot of capabilities including military in 90s for the project of becoming the part of Europe. When it started to become clear, that project failed, many become outraged, becouse it turned out great sacrifices were for nothing. So many decided that atleast we should now take back those sacrifices.
...

Could you please elaborate more on Russian humiliation by the West, the offenses, outrage and the desire to take back sacrifices. Please be more specific. What happened, what were the sacrifices, what was the humiliation, what were the causes, and what are the outcomes.

 

[Kirza_rus]

Could you please elaborate more on Russian humiliation by the West, the offenses, outrage and the desire to take back sacrifices. Please be more specific. What happened, what were the sacrifices, what was the humiliation, what were the causes, and what are the outcomes.

The whole Soviet project was sacrifised to become part of Europe. Thats a lot. People dreamed about that. Its was covered with blood of heroes, thats not just a thing that u say: "Oh, now we will build capitalism".

A lot of people suffered and died from dire povetry becouse of that sacrife. A lot of families were divided becouse of that. Great part of people died in dire criminality in 90s. Great part of soviet national property was robbed to become part of primary capital accumulation to build capitilism. Thats a deep wound in Russia, we can feel it.

And it is humiliation when it comes out, that all that was for nothing, just to find ourselfs in situation when we are today. In situation when its clear, in todays Europe there is no place for Russia.

I heard from a really informed man that in 2005 representatives of France came to Russia and told, that the only way Russia can become part of Europe is in pieces.

There is no need to be specific, tell you about specific bases or smth, I describe you how people feel. Its not about details.

 

[gazzzwp]

The whole

And it is humiliation when it comes out, that all that was for nothing, just to find ourselfs in situation when we are today. In situation when its clear, in todays Europe there is no place for Russia.

Thank you for your input and I have followed everything you have said. Could I just ask you what it is you feel are the barriers for Russia becoming more integrated with Europe?

Is it really the US? Is it fear from border nations regarding their Soviet past? Or both?

 

[Kirza_rus]

Thank you for your input and I have followed everything you have said. Could I just ask you what it is you feel are the barriers for Russia becoming more integrated with Europe?

Is it really the US? Is it fear from border nations regarding their Soviet past? Or both?

I think pieces on the complicated geopolitical chessboard are arranged in such a way that it is not possible today.

I dont demonize US, every country have its own interests, cant blame them that, but we have to follow our interest too. And stop trying to break through a wall, atleast it this specific geopolitical situation.

But regardless of the geopolitical game smart people in Russia understand that we are part of european civilisation, unusual part, but still part of it.

 

[SolarWind]

The whole Soviet project was sacrifised to become part of Europe. Thats a lot. People dreamed about that. Its was covered with blood of heroes, thats not just a thing that u say: "Oh, now we will build capitalism".

A lot of people suffered and died from dire povetry becouse of that sacrife. A lot of families were divided becouse of that. Great part of people died in dire criminality in 90s. Great part of soviet national property was robbed to become part of primary capital accumulation to build capitilism. Thats a deep wound in Russia, we can feel it.

And it is humiliation when it comes out, that all that was for nothing, just to find ourselfs in situation when we are today. In situation when its clear, in todays Europe there is no place for Russia.

I heard from a really informed man that in 2005 representatives of France came to Russia and told, that the only way Russia can become part of Europe is in pieces.

There is no need to be specific, tell you about specific bases or smth, I describe you how people feel. Its not about details.

The Soviet project failed long before USSR fell apart. The failure of the Soviet project was due to undeliverable promises of heavenly prosperity under Communism, to faulty economic principles, and to the growing complexity of advancing technology. The failure to build Communism, that is to break into heavenly prosperity by sticking to Communist/Socialist doctrine, was observed by Chruschev, although he was puzzled as to the reasons.

Economic situation in turn collapsed because Brezhnev and Co. decided to rely on Oil incomes instead of seeking the expansion of domestic economy through diversification. So when oil prices collapsed in the 80's, USSR economy collapsed with it.

By the time Gorbachev started Perestroika, the long protracted war in Afghanistan had exhausted the USSR, and together with economic downfall and disillusionment with the Communist heavenly prosperity dream, lead to civil unrest, separatism, and near anarchy.

So as these events unfolded, it was obvious to many in Russia that there was little, if any, actual value in the Soviet project remaining to be sacrificed. And that the command economy and the promised Communist heavenly prosperity were beyond saving because they could never succeed in the first place.

Finally, the USSR was not dissolved, but fell apart because the individual Republics wanted independence, and took it when and while they could, even without weighting the economic consequences. Now, Gorbachev wrote a book on why it was possible to save the USSR, but it was a moot point because the USSR collapsed anyhow, and there is no end to writing many books.

So, I still don't understand what the actual sacrifices were, except the Soviet pride. I have never heard of any actual demands by the West for the Russian Federation to break up in pieces, and would appreciate if you would share any sources of such information. If this was the case, I do not understand why Russia would still want to integrate into the West unless they were ready to concede.

 

[SolarWind]

Thank you for your input and I have followed everything you have said. Could I just ask you what it is you feel are the barriers for Russia becoming more integrated with Europe?

Is it really the US? Is it fear from border nations regarding their Soviet past? Or both?

Well, if I might, the main barrier to European integration now is Crimea. The Western demands to return Crimea to Ukraine, which Russia could never ever agree to.

 

[Kirza_rus]

The Soviet project failed long before USSR fell apart.

I will tell what u will hardly find in english sources. The project of abandoning USSR and going for capitalism, becoming part of Europe was developed by head of the KGB Andropov (and his elite precursors starting from 60s). Project of Andropov was called Corporation Red Star.

In early 80s Andropov told future head of the KGB Kruchkov, that decision of uniting Germany was already made, it had nothing to do with Gorbachev will. Gorvachev only followed big plan.

Fall of USSR has nothing to do with economical reasons, is was the will of elite to go for another project. If it wanted to save USSR it would have been saved.

 

[SolarWind]

Expansion is not a thing today for russian people, Crimea was not valued as an expansion, but a restoration of historical justice. Its like if America lost somehow 1 state, becouse of political instability and now took it back. Nobody really demands further expansion moves, except madmen like Dugin, if you heard about him.

Military expansion - Russian dont have such economial capabilites to create bases all around world like USA, it is obvious.

This Dugin?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
He does not appear to be quite so insignificant.

 

[Kirza_rus]

This Dugin?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin
He does not appear to be quite so insignificant.

I am familiar about what he is. I mentioned him, becouse a saw article where he was called Putin advisor, he is not at all.

He is part of radical far right clan. But Putin has nothing to do with them.

 

[SolarWind]

I will tell what u will hardly find in english sources. The project of abandoning USSR and going for capitalism, becoming part of Europe was developed by head of the KGB Andropov (and his elite precursors starting from 60s). Project of Andropov was called Corporation Red Star.

The 60's? Like when Chruschev was beginning to realise the failure of the Communist dream?

Fall of USSR has nothing to do with economical reasons, is was the will of elite to go for another project. If it wanted to save USSR it would have been saved.

That's hard to believe, especially seeing how the fall of USSR followed the economic downfall that was decades in making. Perhaps the will of the elite had much to do with the decades-in-making economic downfall.

 

[Kirza_rus]

The 60's? Like when Chruschev was beginning to realise the failure of the Communist dream?

When Chruschev said that we will build communism in 20 years he planted ideological bomb under USSR, everybody knew, it cant be build in 20 years.

Perhaps the will of the elite had much to do with the decades-in-making economic downfall.

Nobody is saying that we hadn't our economical problems, but they were not desicive in this situation. And yes elite hand made some of them, for example trains with goods stayed weeks in warehouses to hand made consumer collapse in 80s.